行业周报 全国两会召开,宏观政策更加积极有为 银行业周报 (2025.03.03-2025.03.09) 2025年3月9日 核心观点 银行业 | 维持 | | --- | | 推荐 | 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 z:zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-07 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 银行板块表现弱于市场:本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.39%,银行板块上涨 ● 1.13%。国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别-0.47%、+2.19%、+1.27%、 -0.11%。个股方面,齐鲁银行（+4.65%）、招商银行(+3.61%)、兴业银行 (+2.94%)、苏州银行(+2.54%)、杭州银行(+2.43%)涨幅居前。截至 3 月 7 日,银行板块 PB ...

Domestic Market Analysis - The monetary policy includes a 1.901 billion CNY operation of the Standing Lending Facility in February, with an end balance of 1.3 billion CNY[2] - The future scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation is set to expand to between 800 billion and 1 trillion CNY[2] - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and a deficit ratio of 4%[2] - In February, the Caixin Services PMI was at 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI was at 50.8[2] - Exports grew by 3.4% in January-February, while imports fell by 7.3%[2] International Market Analysis - The U.S. economy showed a slight increase in overall activity since mid-January, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book[3] - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a potential end to the easing cycle[3] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[3] - The Atlanta Fed revised down the U.S. Q1 GDP forecast, expecting a contraction of over 2.8%[3] Strategic Recommendations - A global strategy to buy U.S. dollars (+DXY) and U.S. Treasury bonds (-TU) is recommended[4] - Domestically, a strategic approach to steepen the yield curve (+2×TS2506-1×T2506) is advised[4] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and risks associated with U.S. and European debt are highlighted[5] - The risk of yen appreciation is also noted[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article utilizes AI to analyze the "Government Work Report" and quantify the incremental information from the "Two Sessions" compared to the Central Economic Work Conference, aiming to identify policy signals and asset trends [2][3]. Group 1: AI Methodology and Analysis - The conventional method of policy interpretation involves identifying key phrases in policy texts and comparing them with previous years to assess policy direction and intensity. AI enhances this by extracting comprehensive information from historical policy documents, overcoming human memory and subjective judgment limitations [3][4]. - AI can convert policy expressions into traceable numerical time series, making it easier to track and understand policy texts. The collaboration between AI and human analysts is essential for nuanced policy interpretation [3][4]. - The analysis of the "Government Work Report" from 2013 to 2025 using AI has yielded quantitative emotional indices for various themes, reflecting the changing focus of policies in response to economic conditions [11][12]. Group 2: Policy Themes and Emotional Indices - The "Government Work Report" can be categorized into 13 themes, including "macroeconomic policy," "structural reform," and "expanding domestic demand," with the thematic focus closely linked to economic conditions and policy guidance [9][10]. - The emotional index for key themes indicates the degree of policy positivity, with higher scores reflecting a more proactive policy stance. For instance, the emphasis on "macroeconomic policy" has increased significantly since 2019, indicating a sustained focus on "stabilizing growth" [5][11]. - The 2025 "Government Work Report" highlights the prioritization of expanding domestic demand and emphasizes specific measures for risk prevention, particularly in the real estate sector [11][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The article finds a correlation between the incremental emotional sentiment in the "Government Work Report" and short-term A-share market performance, with a stronger sentiment on "stabilizing growth" leading to higher stock market gains [16][17]. - Historical analysis from 2010 onwards shows that the market typically experiences a pattern of initial declines followed by rebounds after the "Two Sessions," with the A-share market performing better than historical averages post-2024 [22][23]. - The report suggests a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks and gold, indicating a potential revaluation of Chinese assets driven by recent policy shifts and global economic conditions [24].

赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes implementing more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation[3] - Recent policies focus on enhancing service trade and consumption, with significant meetings discussing government work reports and economic strategies[12] - The State Council has initiated measures to improve the quality of elderly care services, aiming to enhance service supply and expand coverage[4] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies have been introduced to support high-quality development in the new energy storage manufacturing sector, with a focus on innovation-driven growth[14] - The government is launching pilot programs for public sector vehicles in ten cities, aiming to promote the market application of new energy vehicles[15] Monetary Policy - The central bank is exploring the expansion of its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, aiming to innovate policy tools[16] - A macro-prudential work meeting highlighted the need to strengthen financial management in key areas[17] Consumer Policy - A three-year action plan (2025-2027) has been launched to optimize the consumer environment, focusing on improving supply quality and consumer rights protection[18] Financial Regulation - Financial regulators are increasing support for private enterprises, particularly small and micro businesses, to ensure stable credit supply[20] - New regulations allow Hong Kong and Macau banks to offer foreign currency card services in mainland China starting March 1, 2025[21] Trade Relations - China is willing to cooperate with the EU on green industry initiatives, including electric vehicles, amidst ongoing trade tensions[22] - President Xi Jinping and President Putin reaffirmed their commitment to deepening practical cooperation between China and Russia[22] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting March 4, 2025, as part of ongoing trade tensions[28] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about monetary policy, indicating a potential pause in interest rate changes while monitoring inflation trends[30] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations[33]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's real estate market has shown a significant recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by government stimulus measures and a rebound in buyer confidence, leading to increased transaction volumes and prices in both new and second-hand housing markets [2][11][22]. Group 1: New Housing Market - In October 2023, Shenzhen's new housing transactions surged to 4,153 units, up from around 2,000 units previously, with November seeing 8,076 units and December maintaining a high of 6,769 units [2]. - The total new housing transaction volume for the year exceeded that of 2023, indicating a strong recovery trend [2]. - The second-hand housing market also experienced a notable rebound, with transaction volumes increasing from 3,191 units in September to 8,282 units in December [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - After hitting a low of 6 million yuan per unit in July 2023, Shenzhen's second-hand housing prices rebounded, reaching 6.3 million yuan in October and further increasing to 6.41 million yuan by February 2025 [3][8]. - Despite the increase in transaction volumes, the average transaction price showed slight fluctuations, with a minor decline noted in November and December 2023 [7][8]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The recovery in Shenzhen's real estate market is attributed to strong purchasing power, a supply-demand imbalance, and improved market confidence driven by macroeconomic policies [11][12]. - The central government's shift towards more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies aims to stabilize the economy and support the real estate sector, with expectations of significant reductions in interest rates and increased government spending [11][15]. - Shenzhen's economic performance remains robust, with a GDP growth rate of 5.8% in 2023, outperforming other major cities, and a total GDP nearing 3.7 trillion yuan [13][14]. Group 4: Population Dynamics - Shenzhen's population increased by 199,400 in 2024, reaching a total of 17.99 million, marking the highest growth among major cities [20][21]. - This population growth is expected to further support housing demand and contribute to the overall recovery of the real estate market [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the current recovery is promising, the long-term stability of Shenzhen's real estate market hinges on broader economic recovery and employment improvements across the country [22][25]. - The market is still in an adjustment phase, and the true impact of recent policy changes and economic conditions will become clearer in the second and third quarters of 2024 [25][26].

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 284.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.5% on February 28, resulting in a net injection of 102 billion yuan for the day, as 182.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [2] - On the last trading day of the month, the interbank market experienced a tight funding environment in the morning, which gradually improved to a more balanced state as large banks increased supply, leading to a decrease in the weighted average repo rates [2] Interest Rates and Bonds - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.33% [3] - The one-year interbank certificates of deposit are trading around 2%, showing little change from the previous day [5] - The yields on major interbank bonds are as follows: - 1Y government bond yield at 1.6100% - 2Y government bond yield at 1.4400%, down 2 basis points - 3Y government bond yield at 1.5200%, down 1.5 basis points - 5Y government bond yield at 1.6025%, down 3.75 basis points - 10Y government bond yield at 1.7250%, down 3 basis points [6] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a rise: - 30-year main contract up 0.54% - 10-year main contract up 0.2% - 5-year main contract up 0.12% - 2-year main contract up 0.05% [8] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the GDP for 2024 is projected at 13,490.84 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% year-on-year. The total national income is estimated at 13,396.72 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.1% [10] - Real estate development investment for the year is reported at 1,002.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%, with residential investment at 760.4 billion yuan, down 10.5% [10] Corporate Actions - Industrial Bank has launched the first "Southbound Pass" direct connection for Euro-denominated bond investments [14] - GAC Group plans to issue up to 18 billion yuan in asset-backed securities (ABS) [14] - Longguang Group has received support from over 80.8% of creditors for a comprehensive creditor support agreement [14] - Guoyuan Securities has been approved to publicly issue corporate bonds totaling no more than 7.5 billion yuan [14]