Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has strengthened significantly, surpassing the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 100 points [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures surged, reporting a rise of 0.84% [2] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673 [2] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which raised concerns about stagflation and increased financing costs, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and non-USD currencies [2] - The recent historical sell-off of US Treasuries was attributed to multiple factors, including fears stemming from the US government's tariff policies and the collapse of high-leverage trading strategies among hedge funds [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points during the holiday period, reflecting the strength of the offshore RMB [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a positive overall tone, stabilizing market sentiment and emphasizing the need for more proactive macro policies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of June [3] - In the short term, the Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 22,000 points, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range trading strategy [3] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive dividend sectors while closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff negotiations and changes in non-tariff barriers [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Q1 earnings continue to be under pressure, with a slight improvement in cash flow. The company reported a total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that while revenue remains under pressure, the company has managed to control expenses effectively, leading to a slight decrease in expense ratios despite the revenue decline [8] - New contract signings in Q1 2025 decreased by 10.5% year-on-year, but there was notable growth in green environmental contracts, which increased by 77.1% year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes that despite external economic pressures, the company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policy support and a gradual recovery in infrastructure investment [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [8] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed improvement, with a net cash outflow of 38.95 billion yuan, which was 7.65 billion yuan less than the previous year [8] Order Book and Contracts - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 492.8 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, with engineering contracts down 18.7% [8] - The report notes strong performance in the railway, mining, and power sectors, with new contracts in these areas increasing by 66.3%, 139.3%, and 29.2% respectively [8] - The total uncompleted contract amount as of the end of Q1 2025 was 7,861.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year, indicating a solid order backlog [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 21.9 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.8, 4.7, and 4.6 times [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expectation of recovery in valuation due to the company's position as a leading state-owned enterprise in infrastructure [8]

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 27 April 2025 Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085 tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch China: April Politburo meeting emphasized policy reserves No rush for more incremental policy stimulus yet, as expected The April Politburo meeting was held on 25 April, focusing on economic conditions and policy guidance. This policy event has been closely watched by market participants in antic ...

月度策略/A 股市场 2025 年 4 月 30 日 继续企稳修复 2025 年 5 月份投资策略报告 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 市场主要指数 | 4 | 月份表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3279.03 | -1.70% | | 深证成指 | 9899.82 | -5.75% | | 沪深 300 | 3770.57 | -3.00% | | 创业板指 | 1948.03 | -7.40% | | 北证 50 | 1331.13 | 4.72% | | 科创 50 | 1012.42 | -1.01% | 资料来源：东莞 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, China's economy achieved a stable start and good performance under more proactive macro policies [1] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank market decreased, with a total transaction volume of 452 trillion yuan, down 24% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year [1] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing more proactive macro policies, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to maintain liquidity [1][2] - The net liquidity injection from monetary policy operations in the first quarter was 22,618 billion yuan, with significant reverse repo operations [2] Repo Rates and Market Dynamics - Major repo rates initially increased and then decreased, with the overnight repo rate (DR001) and the overnight pledged repo rate (R001) rising by 34 and 37 basis points respectively to 1.77% and 1.95% [3] - The first quarter saw fluctuations in funding rates due to seasonal factors and liquidity conditions, with DR007 reaching a high of 2.34% [3] Government Bond Issuance and Market Activity - A total of 12.3 trillion yuan in bonds were issued in the first quarter, a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 24% increase year-on-year [4] - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was notably high, with the issuance pace reaching about 30% of the annual target, the highest level for the same period in recent years [4][5] Bond Market Performance - Bond yields increased across various maturities, with the 1-year and 10-year government bond yields rising by 45 and 11 basis points respectively [5] - The yield curve for 10-year government bonds showed a fluctuation range of approximately 30 basis points [5] RMB Derivatives Market - The RMB derivatives market saw significant growth, with daily trading volume of interest rate swaps increasing by 33.4% in the first quarter [6] - The average nominal principal amount for RMB interest rate swaps reached 11.1 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 1,876.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.2% increase [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for TL2506 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". Although currently in a high - level consolidation, future macro - policies will be concentrated, giving treasury bond futures upward momentum. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillating weakly" respectively, with a "range oscillation" view. The core logic is the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures rebounded comprehensively, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.69%. The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds benefits the 30 - year treasury bond futures. Currently, domestic macro data is good, and the overseas Fed's reserve - reduction cycle has not arrived, so the central bank will remain stable in the short term. After the April Politburo meeting, the time for monetary policy interest rate and reserve - ratio cuts is approaching, and treasury bond futures have upward momentum in the future while mainly oscillating in the short term [4].

一、停止口号降准降息！择机降准降息，给个明确时间吧！大A现在"失血"严重，急需增量资金的加入，流动性的注入。媒体已经多次报道要降准降息，但 到底啥时候来个准信儿呢？ 同时，会议强调要"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，这"加紧实施"四个字，说明政策肯定不会缺席，而且落地速度可能会加快。目前A股市场不缺资金 和政策支持，真正缺的是信心。所以，逢高减仓吧，这波行情估计快到头了。 二、跟昨天走势差不多，开盘先分歧后修复，然后窄幅震荡一天。 尾盘收盘3286点，跌幅0.05%，这控盘是不是太精准了？按理说今天应该是修复行情。出金压力小了；假期虽然有不确定性，但也不会比现在更糟糕； 除非破区间的下沿，否则节后方向选择向上的概率更高，仓位不要过度轻了，怕有概率踏空。操作方面，小长假期间，外盘的走势充满变数，其波动可能会 给节后的A股市场带来不同程度的影响。中长线而言，市场虽然在窄幅震荡，但依旧处于20日线上，可以稳步进场。 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞，支持一下，谢谢！也可点击收藏，方便日后翻查。 三、A股窄幅整理，依旧维持地量震荡格局。 三大指数均微幅收跌，市场成交额1.04万亿元，为 ...

国投安信期货：棉花操作上暂时观望 昨天美棉大幅下跌，美棉最新的周度签约数据表现一般，截至2025年4月27日当周，美国棉花种植率为 15%,前一周为11%,去年同期为14%,五年均值为14%。国产棉现货交投平淡，现货基差较为坚挺，纯棉 纱纺企散单出货，库存略升，价格本周稳中偏弱。国内内销数据表现尚可，外需面临的挑战较大，关税 实质影响仍未完全落地。中美仍未进行实质性的谈判，特朗普观点较为反复，继续关注后续情况，操作 上暂时观望。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国投安信期货 棉花操作上暂时观望 南华期货（603093） 棉价或维持偏弱小幅震荡 光大期货：短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快，美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价 格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们 认为短期郑棉下方有一定支撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新 棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏 观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有一定支撑 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to show an oscillatory trend. Although the arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The daily output of hot metal is close to the peak and is expected to remain high for some time, strongly supporting the demand for iron ore. The profitability of steel mills has improved, with off - peak electricity changing from loss to profit [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On the night session of Monday, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 7110, up 0.57% [1] Important Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out on April 25 that it is necessary to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, make full use of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and take timely measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [1] - Last week, the supply of five major steel products was 875,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,130 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 1,534,270 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,410 tons or 3.2%. The weekly consumption was 926,250 tons, with the consumption of building materials down 6.9% and that of plates down 0.7% week - on - week [1] - In the first quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China changed from a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% in the previous year to an increase of 0.8% [1] Market Logic - The arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, but the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The daily output of hot metal is close to the peak and is expected to remain high for some time, strongly supporting the demand for iron ore. The profitability of steel mills has improved, with off - peak electricity changing from loss to profit. Overall, the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or an empty position [1]