研究报告 纯碱周报 供需矛盾突出 纯碱价格弱势调整 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约 SA2509 价格在 1151-1193 元/吨之间运 行，价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 17 元/吨，周度涨幅 1.47%，报收 1173 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 上周全国纯碱现货市场价格普遍下跌。 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，上周纯碱产量、产能利用 率双增，截止 2025 年 6 月 19 日，国内纯碱产量 75.47 万吨，环 比增加 1.46 万吨，涨幅 1.97%。纯碱综合产能利用率 86.57%， 前一周 84.90%，环比增加 1.68%。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 库存情况纯碱整体出现累库现象，截止到 2025 年 6 月 19 日， 国 ...

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe rice price surge in Japan, which has led to a situation where rice is becoming unaffordable for many citizens, highlighting the underlying issues of agricultural policy imbalance, extreme weather impacts, and increased demand due to tourism recovery [2][4][20]. Group 1: Price Surge and Public Reaction - The price of rice in Japan has nearly doubled, with a 98.4% increase compared to the previous year, leading to public outcry and unusual behaviors such as long queues for affordable rice [2][4][6]. - The average price for 5 kilograms of rice reached 4,223 yen (approximately 210 RMB), with a year-on-year increase of 97.7% [4][5]. - Citizens are resorting to precise measurements of rice consumption, with families controlling portions down to grams, reflecting the drastic changes in daily life due to rising prices [15][24]. Group 2: Causes of the Rice Crisis - The root cause of the rice price surge is identified as a "rice shortage," driven by long-term agricultural policy failures, extreme weather, and increased demand from the recovering tourism sector [7][18]. - Japan's strict import restrictions and decades-long production reduction policies have significantly limited domestic rice supply, with rice planting area decreasing from over 2 million hectares to 1.344 million hectares by 2023 [17][18]. - The total rice production has dropped from approximately 12 million tons at its peak to about 7.165 million tons in 2023, a reduction of over 40% [17][18]. Group 3: Government Response and Challenges - The Japanese government has attempted to alleviate the crisis by releasing 410,000 tons of government reserve rice, marking the first time since 1995 that such measures have been taken [18][20]. - However, only 7% of the released reserve rice has actually reached the retail market, indicating significant inefficiencies in the distribution system [18][19]. - The Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) has been criticized for monopolizing the distribution of reserve rice, which undermines government efforts to stabilize prices [19][20]. Group 4: Political Actions and Future Outlook - Prime Minister Kishida has appointed political figure Shinjiro Koizumi to lead efforts in stabilizing rice prices and reforming the agricultural distribution system [20][21]. - Koizumi's strategy includes setting a target price of 2,000 yen for 5 kilograms of rice, which aims to reassure the public and stimulate market activity [21]. - Despite these efforts, experts warn that merely releasing reserve rice will not address the fundamental issues, and a more comprehensive approach is needed to balance agricultural transformation and globalization [24].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's rice prices have doubled compared to the same period last year due to extreme weather conditions affecting rice harvests, prompting the government to release reserve rice to stabilize prices [1][2]. Group 1: Government Actions - The Japanese government initiated a new round of reserve rice release on June 11, totaling 120,000 tons, all produced in 2021 [1]. - The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has been releasing reserve rice since March, with four previous rounds already conducted [2]. - The retail price for the newly released 2021 reserve rice is expected to be around 1,800 yen (approximately 89 RMB) for 5 kg, significantly lower than the market price [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There has been a significant public response, with long queues forming in various regions as consumers rush to purchase rice, leading to what has been termed a "rice scramble" [1]. - The media has referred to the released rice as "old rice," indicating that the quality may not meet current consumer expectations [1][2]. Group 3: Expert Analysis - Experts suggest that the government's delayed response and the inadequacy of the reserve rice release mechanism are key reasons for the ongoing high rice prices [3][4]. - The long-term "reduction policy" has led to decreased arable land and limited rice production, compounded by climate change and an aging population affecting agricultural labor [3]. - The monopolistic behavior of agricultural cooperatives, which have acquired over 90% of the reserve rice, has resulted in slow distribution to the retail market, undermining the intended price stabilization effect [4]. Group 4: Future Measures - In response to the soaring rice prices, Japan plans to expedite the bidding process for rice imports, moving it from September to June 27 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices continued to decline with a bearish market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction was obvious. The supply remained high while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Although the price was at a low level and might rebound, the rebound height was expected to be limited and would depend on export and agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and closed lower, approaching historical lows. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The daily output remained high, restricting the upside of the price. The demand was weak, with low agricultural fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm, decreasing compound fertilizer factory operation rates, and a decline in melamine operation rates. The inventory increased due to slow downstream purchases and postponed port inspections. The price was expected to rebound, but the height would depend on exports and agricultural demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1670 yuan/ton and closed at 1646 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was 307097 lots (+20038 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 11936 lots and short positions by 15036 lots. Some futures companies had changes in net long and net short positions [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable with a downward trend, and new orders were not smoothly traded. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The spot market mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 84 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - On June 12, 2025, the national urea daily output was 20.30 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Downstream Data - From June 6 to June 12, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.77%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is expected to be mainly in a low - level oscillation due to prominent supply - demand contradictions, with supply rising, demand falling, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of surplus, and the weak demand from the construction glass sector, affected by the real - estate market, restricts price increases [8]. - The glass futures market is also predicted to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Factors such as the seasonal weakness in demand during the traditional rainy season, high mid - stream inventory, slow capacity reduction, and the lack of substantial improvement in the domestic real - estate completion stage contribute to this outlook [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On June 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated downward, closing at 1,202 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.08%, with a daily increase in positions of 48,195 lots [7]. - As of June 5, the weekly soda ash production in China rebounded to 704,100 tons, a 2.78% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.76%, a 2.19% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 701,400 tons, a 4.90% decrease, and the weekly enterprise inventory remained at 1.627 million tons, showing a slight accumulation [8]. - **Glass Market** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the current rainy season, construction activities are restricted, leading to a continuous weakening of terminal demand. The high mid - stream inventory and slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [9]. - The domestic real - estate completion stage has not shown substantial improvement, and although there are expectations for incremental policies, they are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the supply - demand imbalance [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [12][15][17].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

Core Insights - The global polypropylene (PP) industry is currently in a production cycle, with high output leading to a gradual shift towards oversupply [2] - China's production capacity growth is particularly notable, with domestic consumption lagging behind exports, which is becoming a necessary trend [2] - The report analyzes the global supply-demand landscape and macroeconomic changes affecting the polypropylene industry, providing a current status and future outlook [2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Global PP production capacity expansion is accelerating, resulting in increasing supply pressure and a shift towards oversupply [3] - The import trade flow is changing under intensified market competition, with a focus on near-ocean regions and Asian trade partners [3][4] - Domestic production is gradually replacing imports, with a trend towards higher-end imported grades [4] Group 2: Demand Trends - The global demand growth for PP is slowing due to economic pressures and trade war impacts, leading to underwhelming consumption performance [4] - The globalization process is accelerating, with export trade undergoing a transformation [4] - China's export market is expanding rapidly, altering the competitive landscape [4] Group 3: Price and Cost Analysis - The supply-demand imbalance is causing a downward shift in PP market prices in Asia [4] - Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices are leading to a divergence in cost and profit trends for PP production [5] - Tariff policies are impacting the survival and development of PDH-based polypropylene enterprises [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Multiple factors are complicating the market, with supply-demand pressures expected to persist in the second half of the year [5] - The gradual exit of imports is shifting focus towards exports, influencing future import-export dynamics [5] - Changes in tariff policies are reshaping market structures and will affect the evolution of global PP trade [5]

Group 1 - The main contract for soda ash futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1187.00 yuan, with a current price of 1192.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.41% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future market trends for soda ash, with expectations of short-term fluctuations and a focus on supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - Ningzheng Futures predicts that the soda ash September contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with pressure around the 1215 yuan level, suggesting a wait-and-see approach or short-term short positions [2] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures notes that the previous valuation of soda ash was slightly low, indicating a higher probability of a fluctuating market, with current pressures from warehouse receipts and weak glass demand [2] - Jianxin Futures highlights that supply-demand contradictions are becoming more pronounced, with expectations of increased production and potential inventory accumulation, while demand remains weak due to a sluggish real estate market [3] - The overall market for soda ash is expected to face challenges, with weak downstream purchasing power and a long-term oversupply situation, leading to low-level fluctuations [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, suggesting that the prices of these commodities will generally show a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][3][4]. - **Steel**: The price of rebar futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. The increase was driven by the rise in coking coal prices. The current supply - demand situation is turning loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by macro - news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730 [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but the spot market lacks substantial support. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and there is still downward pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel - **Price**: The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,120 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (-16) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent production and sales data of rebar are good, and the apparent demand remains stable. However, the seasonal decline in demand is only a matter of time. The profit of long - process steel mills is good, while that of short - process steel mills is poor. It is expected that the steel production will decline steadily, and inventory depletion will slow down or accumulate slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price of rebar has fallen near the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a low level. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (+6), the Platts 62% index was 96.35 US dollars/ton (+1.00), and the monthly average was 96.00 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 70 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69 [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news. The high - output transportation at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines will generally take effect in early July. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly on Wednesday, but the spot market lacks substantial support [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have increased regional production cuts due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is still relatively stable. The inventory pressure of coal mines is gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. The import volume of Mongolian coal is restricted by weak demand, and the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate to a high level, putting pressure on traders' quotations. The negative feedback in the coke market continues, and coke enterprises maintain a low level of raw material inventory, mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The molten iron output of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the raw material price - cutting intention has increased, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the supply - side news disturbances, the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and the impact of imported coal cost changes on the domestic market sentiment [3]. Coke - **Price**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated on Wednesday, but the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production rhythm of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and some regions maintain normal production restrictions, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not changed significantly. Recently, the coke inventory shows regional differentiation, and the inventory pressure in the production area is gradually emerging. The trading volume in the port trade link remains low due to weak market sentiment. The terminal steel market has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills has clearly peaked and declined, and the procurement enthusiasm has significantly weakened, mainly for rigid replenishment [4]. - **Outlook**: There is still downward pressure on the coke price. The current market game focus is on the matching degree between the unbalanced distribution of industrial chain profits and the expectation of terminal demand recovery. If the steel sales continue to be weak, the negative feedback transmission effect may further intensify the coke price adjustment [4]. 4. Industry News - **Weather**: From June 4th to 5th, most parts of the country will be sunny with little rain. Starting from the day after tomorrow, large - scale rainfall will occur in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China, with severe local rainfall and strong convective weather [5]. - **Price Adjustment**: Some steel mills in Hebei have proposed to cut the coke price by the third round. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and that of tamping dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charging wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 70 yuan/ton, and that of top - charging dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 75 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 6, 2025 [5]. - **Project Progress**: On June 4th local time, Hu Wangming, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Baowu, inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia. The project is in the production capacity ramping - up stage and aims to achieve an annual full - system capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter of this year [5]. - **Production Resumption**: On June 4th, a 2500m³ blast furnace and supporting rolling mill of Shougang Shuigang resumed production, with a daily increase of 0.6 million tons of construction steel production [5]. - **Urban Renovation**: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas have started renovation [5].