2026 年 2 月 10 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 4.美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特在接受 CNBC 采访时就劳动力市场表示，应预期就业数据会 走低，但这不应引发恐慌。哈塞特认为，鉴于人口增长缓慢但生产率增长"飙升"，较低的就业数 据仍将与高 GDP 增长保持一致。哈塞特补充称，所谓的均衡就业增长率（即每月为保持失业率稳定 所需的就业增长幅度）"远低于"前总统乔·拜登执政时期的水平。哈塞特关于劳动力数据的评论 推动美国国债价格上扬。哈塞特还表示，GDP 增长"非常强劲"，预计到年底增长率将达到 4.0%， 全年整体增长率为 3.0%，并将去年第一季度的负增长归咎于拜登政府。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属延续反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席提名和资金踩踏两方面因素影响：1 月 30 日 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场以及缩表主张，导致降息预期 降温，同时市场对美联储独立性担忧缓解，带动美元指数明显回升。1 月以来贵金属快速上涨，波 动率已处于高位，沃什获提名成为触发因素，引发大量资金获利了结。从长期角度来看，去美元化、 地缘风险、央行购金等支撑因素并未发生逆转，我 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being bullish. The overall view is that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile and bullish pattern on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Trend and View - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1]. - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1]. - **Intraday**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be bullish, and the overall reference view is a bullish run [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply - side factor**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction". Iran, the main source of imports, is in the stage of natural gas supply guarantee and production limitation in winter. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level for the year. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January and February, leading to tight external supply [5]. - **Geopolitical factor**: Due to the large differences between the US and Iran, the "pizza index" of the US Pentagon has risen again, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the domestic methanol futures showed a volatile and bearish trend on the night session of Monday, the downside space of the futures price is limited [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴 ...

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, announced that negotiations with the U.S. in Muscat focused on nuclear issues, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, pending leadership decisions on the next meeting's timing and location [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman, Jefferson, stated that the current interest rate stance is "fully appropriate" for a stable economy, indicating no immediate urgency to resume interest rate cuts [1] - The FAO reported that global grain consumption is expected to increase by 61.8 million tons or 2.2% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.938 billion tons, primarily driven by a 3.0% rise in corn consumption [1] Group 2 - Precious metals continued to rebound, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which cooled rate cut expectations and led to a significant recovery in the dollar index [2][17] - The oil market saw a 1.97% increase in night trading, with ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Muscat, where both parties agreed to continue discussions without threats or pressure [3][12] - Copper prices rose by 0.6% in night trading, amid tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits, with short-term adjustments expected due to stable electricity investment and mixed performance in downstream demand [18] Group 3 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with most major contracts declining, while caustic soda and synthetic rubber saw increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [1] - The market is currently cautious regarding various commodities, with a focus on potential adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in metals and energy sectors [5][10]

Group 1 - In January, China's futures market saw a significant increase in trading volume and value, with a total of 912 million contracts traded and a turnover of 100.26 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 65.09% and 105.14% respectively [1] - The increase in market activity is attributed to several factors, including a notable rotation among market sectors, heightened demand for hedging and asset allocation due to geopolitical risks, increased price volatility in certain commodities, and seasonal effects at the beginning of the year [1][2] - The influx of new capital at the start of the year has led to a substantial increase in customer equity and sustained liquidity, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors, which have attracted institutional and industrial clients for hedging purposes [1][2] Group 2 - As of the end of January, there are 165 listed futures and options products in China, with over 50 products, including silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, experiencing a year-on-year trading volume increase of over 100% [2] - Nickel futures saw the highest growth at 799.06%, followed by copper and aluminum futures with increases of 403.75% and 395.39% respectively, while silver futures grew by 177.89% [2] - The demand for precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by strong industrial needs in sectors such as photovoltaics, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles, which has intensified the investment interest and hedging demand in these markets [2] Group 3 - The top three products by trading volume in January across various exchanges include silver, gold, and copper at the Shanghai Futures Exchange; PTA, cotton, and caustic soda at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange; coking coal, palm oil, and polyvinyl chloride at the Dalian Commodity Exchange; and lithium carbonate, platinum, and industrial silicon at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [3] - The China Financial Futures Exchange recorded a trading volume of 30.05 million contracts, accounting for 3.29% of the national market, with a turnover of 2.635 trillion yuan, representing 26.28% of the national market [3] - The top three products by turnover at the China Financial Futures Exchange were the CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 index futures, and CSI 300 index futures [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support**: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - **Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices**: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - **Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate**: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - **Low Refinery Inventory**: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - **Increased Social Inventory**: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].

【炼油板块】周前期，特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田及美 国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价大幅下跌。周中期，美国击落一架伊朗无人机，伊朗武 装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，有媒体报道称原定的美伊谈判取消，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美 印达成贸易协议，有望提振需求，国际油价宽幅反弹。周后期，美国与伊朗同意周五举行核谈判，缓解 了市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧，地缘风险溢价回落，油价有所回落。2026年2月6日布伦特、WTI原油价 格分别为68.05、63.55美元/桶，较2026年1月30日分别-2.64、-1.66美元/桶。成品油方面，本周国内外成 品油价格价差偏震荡运行。 【化工板块】本周成本端支撑有限，化工品价格偏震荡运行，部分产品短期供给影响，价格有所上行。 聚烯烃方面，本周聚烯烃价格价差小幅震荡。EVA价格偏稳运行，价差小幅改善。纯苯产品价格价差小 幅上涨。苯乙烯华东码头本周期内到货有限，产品价格价差继续上涨。丙烯腈场内装置降负与检修情况 延续，局部供应偏紧，产品价格价差继续上行。聚碳酸酯产品价格稳中有涨。MMA产品价格偏稳运 行，价差小幅改善。 【聚酯锦纶板块】聚 ...

| 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 5034.77 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 1118.80 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 1120.40 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 1125.94 | 元/克 | 摘要北京时间周一(2月9日)欧洲时段，美元指数大幅下跌，交投于97.308附近，金价目前交投于5034.77 美元/盎司，涨幅1.50%，最高触及5045.38美元/盎司，最低触及4963.84美元/盎司。本周黄金还有非农就 业数据和CPI数据，本周注定不平凡，本周需要关注5093这个位置是否站上，如果不站上就可能带来技 术性的调整，今天日内短线先低多看涨。 因政府延迟，1月非农(周三)与CPI(周五)扎堆公布。市场预估非农新增6万(失业率4.4%)、CPI环比涨 0.29%(同比2.5%)，虽略好于前值但仍高于美联储2%目标。数据作为美联储"稳物价+保就业"核心依 据，直接影响利率预期——市场押注2026年降息两次(超美联储暗示次数)。上周疲软就业数据已摁住美 元，若本周数据继续疲软，降息预期升温将打压美元，黄金白银或再迎涨势；即便 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations with low volatility, and the trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, particularly around the key level of the US dollar index at 97.496, indicating a lack of clear directional signals [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is engaged in a range-bound trading pattern, with both bulls and bears contesting around the 97-98 range, showing signs of reduced momentum [1]. - Major non-USD currencies are performing steadily without clear direction, with the British pound closing at 1.3614 against the dollar and the dollar-yen pair trading around 156.5600 [1]. Group 2: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes Japan's December trade balance, Switzerland's January consumer confidence index, and the Eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index, which are expected to impact currency movements based on deviations from forecasts [1]. - The ASEAN finance ministers and central bank deputies' working group meeting is taking place, which may influence Southeast Asian currencies and global market sentiment through policy statements and cooperation developments [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index is in a consolidation phase, with a downward channel formed since January 19, and currently holding above the 5-day moving average at 97.52 while facing resistance from the 10-day moving average at 97.89 [1]. - The euro against the dollar shows a bullish trend with key support levels at 1.1750-1.1765, and a potential upward movement towards 1.1900-1.1920 if it breaks above 1.1835 [2]. - The British pound against the dollar is in a state of indecision with increasing divergence between bulls and bears, and a need for clear signals to determine the next direction [3]. - The dollar-yen pair maintains a strong upward structure with key support levels at 156.30-156.50, and a potential breakout above 157.00 could open further upward movement [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The Middle East situation is tense with escalating US-Iran confrontations, which could lead to volatility in energy and safe-haven assets [4]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting new sanctions from the EU and discussions for peace talks, impacting energy prices and currency valuations [4]. - Japan's recent election results may influence the yen's value and stock pricing, as the ruling party plans to lower consumption tax [4]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Michigan University consumer confidence index has shown improvement, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases are anticipated to influence market sentiment and asset pricing [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-09燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：贸易商称，尽管下游加油活动活跃，尤其是在农历新年前夕，但亚洲低硫燃料油市场仍受到近期充足 的套利供应压制，美伊谈判开局较为良好，暂未增加地缘担忧，预计燃油价格短期震荡运行，等待更多地缘信号 出现。FU2603：2750-2810区间运行，LU2603：3220-3280区间运行 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱，主要受即期供应充足影响。与此同时，含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价 差连续第二个交易日维持负值不变，原因是货物需求疲软；新加坡高硫燃料油的需求通常从3月开始回升，以满 足南亚夏季发电高峰的 ...