1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals dropped significantly. Recently, the prospects of Fed easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals. However, the risks have been accumulating due to excessive gains driven by funds. Domestic and foreign exchanges have successively adjusted margins and trading restrictions. The short - term market volatility is high, and participation should be cautious. The platinum fundamentals continue to be in short supply, and the medium - term upward logic remains intact. There is a possibility that long - position funds may cover positions on dips. The recent IV has increased, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling PUT options [1] Summary According to Related Events - Trump is considering suing Powell for incompetence and may fire him. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles, he supports a strike on Iran; if Iran develops nuclear weapons, he supports a rapid strike on Iran [2] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation: - Russia claims that 91 Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence, while Ukraine denies it. - Zelensky requested a 50 - year security guarantee from Trump, and the issues of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and territory remain unresolved in the 20 - point plan. - The Kremlin says there is no discussion about a call between Putin and Zelensky currently, but a call between Putin and Trump is expected to take place soon. - The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces says Russian troops are successfully advancing into the Ukrainian military's defense circle, and the advancement speed in December was the fastest in nearly a year. - Putin instructed to continue the work of establishing a security zone in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, aiming to complete it in 2026, and said it is necessary to continue actions to gain control of Zaporizhzhia city [2]

| 沪锡2602四 | | 323010 -5.65% | 339467 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氢化铝2605圆 | 2747 | -1.47% | 473908 | | 铝合金2603网 | 21475 | -0.49% | 6510 | | 国际铜2602网 | 87320 | -3.06% | 11459 | | 工业硅2605四 | 8875 | 0.62% | 116509 | | 文华商品 | 164.77 | -0.51 | -0.31% | | 行情 | UHD 资料库 | 发现 | 我 | 本报记者 王宁 12月30日，国内期货市场金属板块大面积低开，沪银、沪金出现较大程度跌幅，铂和钯期货主力合约盘中更是跌停；同 时，沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、沪铅和沪锡等金属品种，也出现不同程度的下探。 分析人士表示，近日金属板块波动较大，包括白银和黄金等品种更是出现单边行情，但目前利好基本面的因素缺乏实质性 支撑，加之资金有获利了结可能，国内交易所也同步采取相关措施，贵金属等品种出现明显回调。 | 10:01 | | | ·Il ? CD | | | --- | --- | ...

截至记者发稿，沪金期货主力2602合约报收于984.5元/克，跌幅超过3%；沪银期货主力2602合约报收于17900元/千克，跌幅超过5%；铂期 货主力2606合约、钯期货主力2606合约仍处在跌停板，跌幅为13%；沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、沪铅和沪锡等主力合约，均出现不同程度跌幅， 其中沪锡主力合约2602跌幅超过5%。 国投期货高级分析师刘冬博向记者表示，近期市场预期美联储货币政策将趋于宽松，同时海外地缘风险也支撑贵金属板块，但资金推动贵 金属期价涨幅过大，相关合约风险不断积累，加之国内外交易所陆续调整保证金和交易限制，短期贵金属板块波动率较高，隔夜国际市场 黄金和白银等期价出现大幅回落，建议个人交易者目前谨慎参与。 国元期货金属研究组负责人范芮告诉记者，近期贵金属价格整体表现积极，主要在于白银、铂等品种基本面偏紧，交投情绪一定程度上带 动金属板块整体交投积极。不过，目前贵金属市场投资情绪快速发酵并释放，存在部分提前获利了结需求，因此，包括黄金和白银等期价 短期有调整需求。长期来看，市场对于避险、抗通胀等持续存在避险需求，白银和铂基本面相对稳固，贵金属板块或将出现差异化表现。 | 10:01 | | | · II ...

最新消息，李嘉诚出售巴拿马运河两端的港口出现了变故，中国改变了要求，我们以前只是要求要参与 收购，但是现在我们要获得控制权，所以现在收购谈判陷入了僵局。 如果不把视角拉高，普通人很难看懂这其中的深层逻辑。 为什么贝莱德牵头的BlackRock-TiL财团愿意掏出228亿美元总企业价值，收购这一庞大的港口资产包？ 贝莱德-TiL财团这类顶级资本深知其在全球航运网络中的核心地位，这也是此次交易的关键价值所在。 所以，这是一场基于商业逻辑与战略价值的双向选择。 2025年3月4日，长和集团与贝莱德-TiL财团达成原则性协议，和记港口通过此次资产出售进行全球业务 重组，优化资产结构，经调整少数股东权益及相关贷款还款后，预计将获得超过190亿美元的现金收 益。 这就是资本对战略资源的精准判断，也是和记港口作为全球重要码头运营商的价值体现。 这次摆上货架的资产包堪称"全球港口网络核心组合"，核心标的包括两颗真正的战略明珠——巴拿马运 河两端的巴尔博亚港和克里斯托瓦尔港，同时涵盖和记港口在全球23个国家43个港口的80%权益，涉及 199个泊位及配套的智能码头管理系统、全球物流网络等核心资源，仅排除中国内地及香港地区的港口 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 地缘风险、流动性缓解，ETF 资金大量流入。短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好尚 可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存 | | ★ | | | | | | 在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 美元持续走弱，白银紧缺线索不断。长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 | | ★★ | 控制风险 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价大幅快 速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存 在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | 控制风险 | 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价 ...

【12月29日早盘现货白银价格波动，年内涨超160%】12月29日早盘，现货白银价格一度突破83美元/盎 司，涨幅近6%，随后快速跌至75美元附近，维持窄幅震荡。截至10:09，现货白银跌2.03%，报77.72美 元/盎司，年内涨超160%，显著跑赢黄金涨幅。当前白银已进入严重超买区间，后续或快速回调释放压 力，或高位横盘消化涨幅。不过，这并不意味着牛市结束，支撑贵金属长期上涨的逻辑未变，包括美联 储降息周期开启、全球央行购金持续、地缘风险升温以及对货币信用的长期担忧。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.29 12:42:15 周一 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 现货白银:早盘冲高回落,年内涨超 160% 可归 【12月29日早盘现货自银价格波动,年内涨超 160%】 12月29日早盘,现货白银价格一度突破83 美元/盎司,涨幅近6%,随后快速跌至75美元附 近,维持窄幅震荡。截至10:09,现货白银跌 2.03%,报77.72美元/盎司,年内涨超160%,显著 跑赢黄金涨幅。当前白银已进入严重超买区间,后 续或快速回调释放压力,或高位横盘消化涨幅。不 ...

格隆汇12月29日｜据21财经，今日早盘，现货白银价格一度突破83美元/盎司，涨幅近6%，随后快速跌 落至75美元附近，维持窄幅震荡走势。截至10:09，跌2.03%，报77.72美元/盎司，年内涨超160%，显著 跑赢黄金涨幅。中辉期货提醒，当前白银已进入严重超买区间，后续或快速回调释放压力，或通过高位 横盘缓慢消化涨幅。然而，这并不等于牛市结束，因为支撑贵金属长期上涨的逻辑并未改变——美联储 降息周期开启、全球央行购金持续、地缘风险升温以及对货币信用的长期担忧。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commodity market experienced a significant surge in prices for precious and non-ferrous metals, with multiple products reaching historical highs, driven by various market factors and government policy announcements [2][9][12]. Group 1: Price Movements - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively surged, with platinum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting a record high of 709.85 yuan per gram, marking a monthly increase of 61.9% [2]. - Silver futures also rose sharply, reaching 18,658 yuan per kilogram, with a total trading volume of 267.69 billion yuan, making it the largest contract by trading volume in the futures market [4]. - Copper futures peaked at 99,730 yuan per ton, closing at 98,720 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.60% increase [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 8.12%, reaching a new high of 131,000 yuan per ton since November 2023 [6]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in non-ferrous metals prices was catalyzed by a government announcement emphasizing the optimization of traditional industries, which raised expectations for a contraction in supply growth for aluminum and copper [9]. - International macroeconomic factors, including expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and rising geopolitical tensions, have also contributed to increased demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [12][13]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is expected to face supply constraints due to recent mining accidents and declining ore grades, which are anticipated to drive prices higher in the long term [13]. - The zinc market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of increased supply from new smelting capacities and a potential tightening of supply by 2026, which could lead to a bullish trend in zinc prices [14]. Group 4: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry is projected to see significant revenue growth, with a reported income of 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [17]. - The net profit for the industry is expected to rise by 41.55%, with energy metals showing the most substantial profit growth of 385.53% year-on-year [17]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on companies with strong resource reserves, scale, and integrated supply chains, while suggesting a cautious approach for retail investors during market volatility [19]. - Recommendations include building a diversified portfolio with leading copper and aluminum companies, gold ETFs for hedging, and targeting undervalued mining companies for potential value appreciation [19]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metals market is anticipated to enter a sustained bull market in 2026, driven by global economic recovery and improved supply-demand dynamics [20].