Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - India continues to import crude oil from Russia despite U.S. tariff threats, highlighting the complexities of the global energy market influenced by geopolitical risks, trade policies, and supply-demand dynamics [1][3] Group 1: India's Energy Policy - India's energy policy is primarily influenced by the international oil market's supply conditions and the global economic environment, with energy security being a top priority [1] - The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the long-term stability of India-Russia relations, asserting that they should not be disrupted by third-party factors [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. President announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued procurement of Russian crude oil, reflecting the interplay between energy trade and international politics [1] - This tariff threat arises amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing Ukraine ceasefire negotiations [1] Group 3: Changes in Oil Import Structure - India's crude oil import structure has significantly changed, with imports from Russia increasing from 68,000 barrels per day in early 2022 to a peak of 2.15 million barrels per day in May 2023 [1] - At one point, Russian supplies accounted for nearly 40% of India's crude oil imports, making Russia its largest supplier [1] - Given India's average daily crude oil consumption of approximately 5.5 million barrels, of which 88% is imported, this shift has a notable impact on the global crude oil trade landscape [1] Group 4: Economic Implications - The shift towards Russian oil has allowed India to reduce its import costs and alleviate energy price pressures domestically [3] - In the short term, this strategy may help stabilize India's energy supply and economic operations, but it could also lead to international trade friction and market volatility [3] - Global investors should monitor crude oil price trends influenced by geopolitical situations, tariff threats, and supply chain changes, as energy-related currencies and stock market sectors may be indirectly affected [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices exhibit a "policy market" characteristic, with spot gold prices fluctuating around $3,325 per ounce, down 1.2% from the beginning of the month, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with two members voting against, indicating a divergence in interest rate cut expectations [1] - Escalating Middle East tensions have not sustained the demand for gold as a safe haven, leading to frequent shifts of funds between gold and risk assets [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite short-term volatility, medium to long-term demand for gold remains strong, with domestic gold ETF sizes increasing by 173% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing 260 billion yuan [2] - The Huaan Yifu Gold ETF alone has nearly 60 billion yuan in assets, reflecting a growing trend of individual investors entering the gold market, with a 37% increase in online platform investments [2] - Small investors account for over 40% on compliant platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals, driven by low entry barriers allowing investments starting from 0.01 lots [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy Variables - If the Federal Reserve signals a rate cut in September, lower real interest rates will reduce the cost of holding gold, historically leading to an 18% price increase within three months after the first rate cut [3] - Current Middle East conflicts are still categorized as "localized friction," but any escalation to full-scale war could push gold prices rapidly to $3,500 [3] - The 60-day moving average for COMEX gold futures at approximately $3,300 serves as a critical support level; a drop below this could trigger algorithmic selling [3][4] Group 4: Competitive Advantages of Jinsheng Precious Metals - The platform employs a three-tiered protection system of "bank custody + independent audit + risk reserve," ensuring complete separation of client and operational funds, with daily audits by PwC [6] - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers a low spread of $0.38 per ounce for London gold, saving over 30% compared to industry averages, which translates to more than 2,000 yuan in monthly savings for a single lot trade [7] - The platform operates under a dual trading schedule covering major global time zones, achieving market order execution speeds of ≤0.3 seconds and controlling slippage rates within 0.5% [8] Group 5: Investment Paradigm Shift - In the context of shifting Federal Reserve policies and normalized geopolitical risks, gold investment has evolved from a mere safe-haven asset to a "ballast" in asset allocation [9] - Jinsheng Precious Metals provides a comprehensive solution for investors, combining compliance, cost optimization, and technology to enhance trading opportunities, evidenced by an average profit increase of 18% for users utilizing smart take-profit features [9]

Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

【国投期货|能源论事】 美国对俄制裁最后期限前置，地缘风险再度 支撑油价 能源团队 研究院 高明宇 Z0012038 2025.7.30 免责声明：国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供国投期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下 简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。如接收人并非国投期货客户，请及时退回并删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅 反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的期货或期权的价格、价值可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户不应视本报告 为其做出投资决策的唯一因素。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任 何损失负任何责任。 本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接，本公司不对其内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和准确性负责。本报告提 ...

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, approaching a three-week low near $3300, influenced by a strong dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3][4] - A "multiple top" formation has been identified in the gold price chart, indicating strong resistance above $3434, with a critical support level at $3300; a breach of this level could lead to further technical selling [3][4] - If the support at $3300 is lost, further declines towards $3200 may occur, while a rebound could face initial resistance at $3340 and stronger resistance at $3370 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial; if no dovish signals are released, gold may enter a new technical downtrend [5] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the FOMC meeting and key U.S. economic data [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are supported by strong summer demand and tight inventories, with potential for price increases if key resistance levels are broken [8] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Russia and upcoming trade policy changes, contribute to market uncertainty [7][10] - Technical indicators suggest that if WTI crude oil prices break above $68.30, they could reach $70, while a drop below $65.20 may lead to a sideways trading pattern [8]

2025年7月29日 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 聚烯烃产业期现日报 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价 ...