Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.99%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.18%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.3% on September 22, with a half-day trading volume of HKD 164.784 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) experienced a flat performance, while component stocks like AAC Technologies surged over 9%, Sunny Optical Technology rose over 6%, and SMIC and WuXi Biologics increased by over 3% [1] - There has been a continuous net inflow into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF for five consecutive trading days, with the last two days seeing a net inflow exceeding HKD 100 million [1] Group 2 - The recent interest rate cut does not signify the end of rate reductions, as the dot plot indicates two more expected cuts by 2025, which will continue to support the Hong Kong stock market and tech sector [2] - The internal drivers for the Hong Kong tech sector remain strong, with reduced competition in industries like food delivery and automotive, and a renewed focus on AI as a core narrative [2] - Recent interim reports from Hong Kong tech companies show that cloud business revenues exceeded market expectations, reinforcing the growth logic driven by AI, alongside strong future capital expenditure plans [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers major internet giants like Tencent and Alibaba, as well as emerging players like Li Auto and BeiGene, providing a comprehensive investment tool for Chinese tech leaders [3] - The top five holdings account for 57% of the ETF's weight, while the top ten holdings make up 77%, indicating a concentrated yet broad exposure to key sectors including software, hardware, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：降息落地盈利离场影响消退，美股"三巫日"成交量激增，金价回升； 美国三大股指齐创收盘新高，欧洲三大股指全线小幅收跌；美债收益率集体上涨， 10年期涨2.49个基点报4.125%；美元指数涨0.30%报97.66，离岸人民币对美元贬值 报7.1196；COMEX黄金期货收涨1.12%报3719.4美元/盎司；中性 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国9月LPR、国新办新闻发布会、美联储、欧央行和英央行官员 讲话。美联储降息落地盈利离场影响消退，宽松乐观预期回归，叠加中 ...

Group 1 - The recent performance of the three major U.S. stock indices has been strong, with record highs, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally and its underlying drivers [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a significant factor contributing to the stock market's rise, but it is not a guaranteed solution for long-term growth [3] - Company earnings are crucial for sustained stock market growth, as evidenced by FedEx's strong earnings boosting its stock, while Lennar's disappointing results led to a 4.2% drop in its stock price [3] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices, which has significantly benefited Newmont Mining's stock, is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, inflation fears, and concerns over government debt devaluation [5] - However, if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are not as substantial as anticipated or if inflation decreases, the upward momentum in gold prices may weaken [5] - The Federal Reserve primarily relies on interest rates as its main tool for economic management, facing challenges in balancing employment growth and inflation control [7] Group 3 - Concerns exist regarding the impact of declining stock markets in Europe and Asia on U.S. markets, particularly as the Nikkei index fell due to the Bank of Japan's stock sales [7] - The U.S. stock market's strength is primarily supported by domestic factors, such as interest rate expectations and strong corporate earnings, rather than external market movements [7] - The slowing growth in the U.S. job market and potential global economic slowdown could negatively affect U.S. companies' overseas operations, posing risks to the stock market [9]

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate level, reflecting its policy dilemma between a weak labor market and persistent inflation pressures [1] - Early initiation of a rate-cutting cycle could further elevate inflation expectations, while maintaining high rates for an extended period may suppress consumption and investment, increasing economic downturn risks [1] - For ordinary investors, this policy stance suggests that interest rates on savings products may remain stable in the short term, but mortgage rates will stay high, making repayment pressures difficult to alleviate [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, with the "Evening Star" pattern prompting a drop below 1.3500, increasing the likelihood of testing the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day moving averages around 1.3477/63 [2] - A daily closing price below this convergence would clear the path for testing the low of 1.3332 from September 3, while a closing price above 1.3600 could reinforce the rationale for challenging the annual peak of 1.3788 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is "oscillation." In the short - term (within a week), it is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is also expected to oscillate; and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side" [1][5]. - Treasury bond futures have both upward pressure and downward support. In the short term, they will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation," the medium - term view is "oscillation," the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side," and the overall view is "oscillation." The core logic is that there are still expectations of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is "oscillation on the weak side," the medium - term view is "oscillation," and the reference view is "oscillation" [5]. - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined last Friday. As they have rebounded from the previous bottom, the implied interest rate cut expectation has been reflected, and there is no strong need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, so there is significant resistance above. In terms of the domestic and foreign economic and financial environment, the credit data in August was weak, the marginal consumption growth rate decreased, and the inflation data was weak. There are rising expectations of macro - policy to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, and it is expected to cut rates twice more this year, so there are still expectations of future monetary easing. In the medium and long term, there is strong support below Treasury bond futures [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: September 22, 2025 - Main Theme: Interest rate cuts did not exceed expectations, and copper prices oscillated and adjusted [1] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Last week, copper prices declined from high levels. The main reason was that the Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations. Market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, and new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release. The social inventory turned downward, and the near - month contract shifted to a Back structure. - The market has fully priced in the expectation of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts this year. Some overseas fund long positions took profits. Powell indicated no need to start a large - scale easing cycle, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal sector. Domestically, the capital market sentiment was high. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline, and the domestic tight - balance structure would intensify. Short - term copper prices were expected to oscillate and adjust [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Contract Prices**: LME copper decreased from $10,064.50/ton to $9,996.50/ton, a decline of 0.68%; COMEX copper dropped from 464.8 cents/pound to 463.05 cents/pound, a decline of 0.38%; SHFE copper fell from 81,060 yuan/ton to 79,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.49%; international copper decreased from 72,030 yuan/ton to 70,810 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69%. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.05 to 7.99 [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 646,720 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 6,300 tons (4.09%); COMEX inventory increased by 6,287 short - tons (2.02%); SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons (12.51%); Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 500 tons (0.65%) [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations, which alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release, and the social inventory turned downward [2][7] - **Inventory Status**: As of September 19, the global inventory continued to rise slightly. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 9.75%; SHFE inventory increased but remained at a low level; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The LME inventory shifted from accumulation to depletion, while the US copper inventory continued to increase. The Shanghai - London ratio dropped below 8 [7] - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%. The latest dot - plot showed that there might be another 50 - basis - point cut this year and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027. Domestically, in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and from January to August, the cumulative profit growth was 6.2% [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, and refined copper production was expected to decline. The new scrap copper tax policy hindered domestic production release. On the demand side, power grid investment projects started, the copper cable industry's operating rate returned to about 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry was approaching the peak season. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, and the near - month contract price continued to rise, shifting the structure back to Back [2][9][10] 3. Industry News - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate adjacent mines in central Chile, which is expected to release at least $5 billion in value and produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [11] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been suspended due to a mud - flow accident. The long - term suspension may lead to continuously high copper prices. The global copper smelting industry has been facing a serious shortage of concentrates this year [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper basis, spread, and other data, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][23]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the metals and new materials industry, suggesting a stable supply-demand balance and potential for price increases in the long term [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to boost investment inflows into the metals sector, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, which are anticipated to see price increases [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors that could impact metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum [5][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.14%. The non-ferrous metals index fell by 4.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.57 percentage points [6][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 51.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 36.64 percentage points [6][9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices decreasing by 0.78%, 0.67%, and 1.04% respectively, while gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 1.60% [10][15]. - Lithium prices showed an upward trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.82% [10][15]. Key Company Valuations - The report lists key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, with their respective price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 [18][19]. - For example, Zijin Mining is projected to have a PE ratio of 15 and an EPS of 1.65 in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [18]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that copper supply remains tight due to production disruptions, with domestic social inventory increasing to 149,000 tons [32]. - The demand for copper is expected to rise, driven by increased activity in the electrical and construction sectors, with operating rates for copper products showing slight improvements [32]. Precious Metals Insights - The report indicates that gold ETF holdings have increased by 2.2%, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [20]. - The gold-silver ratio is currently at 86.7, suggesting potential for silver price recovery as demand improves [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision in September aligns with market expectations, impacting risk preferences in the A-share market and indicating potential short-term volatility and long-term benefits for A-shares due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Short-term Impact on A-share Market - Short-term, risk premiums are expected to narrow as the market has already priced in rate cuts, leading to potential volatility after expectations are met [1] - Global equity markets may face short-term fluctuations due to the partial realization of rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: Medium to Long-term Analysis - Long-term, the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to benefit A-share performance, with the renminbi expected to strengthen passively, improving risk appetite [1] - The appreciation of the renminbi may alleviate foreign investors' concerns regarding exchange rate fluctuations, enhancing the attractiveness of the A-share market [1] Group 3: Structural Changes in A-share Market - In terms of sector performance, technology growth, high dividend, and interest rate-sensitive sectors are expected to be the main beneficiaries of the current market conditions [1] Group 4: Impact on Hong Kong Market - Liquidity in the Hong Kong market is expected to improve due to declining Hong Kong dollar interest rates and the return of foreign capital [1] - A structural shift in fund allocation is noted, with foreign investments focusing on technology, finance, and certain consumer and manufacturing sectors, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut of the year, and hinted at an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, slightly above June's forecast [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its interest rates for the second consecutive meeting, with the president stating that economic risks have become more balanced, leading to expectations that the ECB's rate cut cycle is nearing its end [1] - The Bank of Canada has reduced its key interest rate to 2.5%, the lowest in three years, citing a weak job market and easing inflation pressures, with a 40% chance of another cut next month [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia has a low probability of a rate cut in September at 20%, but a higher probability of 70% in November, as inflation remains above target levels [2] - The Bank of England has kept its rates unchanged, with a 40% chance of a cut by the end of the year, while the New Zealand Reserve Bank has recently cut rates to a three-year low of 3% [2] - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its rate at 0%, despite the chairman indicating a potential return to negative rates, which would require a high threshold [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan has kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and announced plans to sell ETFs, with internal committee disagreements seen as a potential hawkish signal [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation is still bullish, transitioning from trading "policy expectations" to trading "fundamentals." Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [5]. - For aluminum alloys, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the restart after a 9 - month hiatus. The meeting was generally in line with expectations but reduced the rate - cut expectations for next year, with a neutral - to - hawkish stance [5][11]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points from January to July. Infrastructure investment grew by 2.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - Aluminum supply - side increments are relatively limited, and the seasonally strong consumption season has seen an increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises. However, high aluminum prices have curbed the purchasing enthusiasm of processing enterprises, and the inflection point of social inventory has not yet arrived [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited supply - side increments, continuous increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises, and social inventory remaining at a low level [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Alumina prices continue to be weak, and the rate - cut利好 is exhausted [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore production**: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum ore production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 543,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Guinean imported ore remains stable, but attention should be paid to the disturbances around the referendum [16][19]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [23]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Aluminum downstream processing**: The operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, but high aluminum prices have curbed inventory - building. In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [28][31]. - **Inventory**: LME and SHFE aluminum inventories both increased. As of September 18, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 636,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from Monday [41][45]. - **Price spread**: On September 18, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaohui aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 4.89 US dollars/ton, with the premium narrowing [49]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. It is expected to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.5% as of September 11 [53][57]. - **Import and export**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%, hitting a four - year low [61]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of September 19, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 60,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [66]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Aluminum alloy**: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. - **SHFE aluminum**: Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [70].