每经记者 孙宇婷 每经编辑 张海妮 凭借大众化定位和舒适性优势在全球鞋类市场"杀"出重围的斯凯奇（NYSE:SKX），于当地时间5月5日突然宣布私有化决定。作为全球第三大运动鞋零售 商、两度入选《财富》500强的行业巨头，这一举措引发市场震动。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，就在不久前，包括耐克、阿迪达斯、斯凯奇在内的76家鞋企联名致信白宫，请求豁免所谓的"对等关税"，因为新关税政策已 对平价鞋企构成"生存威胁"，若政策持续，部分企业恐面临倒闭风险。 新关税政策下，一双原本售价1100元的球鞋，如今消费者要支付近1700元，这让主打"高性价比"的斯凯奇陷入两难境地。机构普遍认为，斯凯奇选择此时私 有化，实为规避上市公司监管压力，以便在关税风波中掌握更大的经营自主权。 斯凯奇获3G资本溢价收购 2024年，斯凯奇销售额近90亿美元，同比增长12%。过去五年，公司营收几乎翻了一番。作为斯凯奇最大的海外市场，中国市场的高速发展起到了关键作 用。 在刚过去的2025财年第一季度，斯凯奇实现了创纪录的24.1亿美元季度销售额，其中，国际销售额占比达65%。按区域看，欧洲、中东和非洲地区销售额增 长了14%，美洲地区销售额 ...

长按即可参与 尽管英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA）过去表现辉煌，但分析师还预测其每股收益增长率将会放缓。 英伟达股价仍高于行业平均水平。其高市盈率和企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润比率对投资者构成 了严重风险。迄今为止，几乎没有什么变化。只有贸易紧张局势带来的风险大幅上升。 前段时间有消息称， 由于美国政府要求从美国向华出口芯片必须获得许可证，或将支付出口 H20 图形处理器 (GPU) 相关的 55 亿美元季度费用。 下面的图表是根据上面的表格制作的，显示英伟达的销售额一直在稳步增长。 在《纽约时报》 报道 特朗普政府正在采取措施打击 DeepSeek（ 英伟达向其 供应芯片） 后， 英 伟达股价进一步下跌。 对英伟达和其他依赖大中华市场的高科技公司来说，向该市场运输 H20 图形处理器的 费用可能只是一个开始。 此外，特朗普的关税可能导致美国经济放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔也 表示 ，特朗普的关税可能对 美联储构成挑战。这是因为关税可能会在不久的将来推高通胀，同时导致美国经济放缓。正如鲍 威尔所说，特朗普的关税" 可能会让我们离目标更远 "。换句话说，美联储将陷入" 进退维谷 "的 境地，不知道是放松还是收紧货币政 ...

全球贸易战的潜在后果引发了市场的担忧，投资者对避险资产的需求增加。黄金作为一种传统的避险资 产，其需求在市场不确定性增加时往往会显著上升。特朗普对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，进一 步加剧了市场的不确定性，推动了黄金的避险需求。 周二（北京时间5月6日），现货黄金交投于3332.10美元附近，周一金价上涨超过2%，受美元走软和避 险需求推动。市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定，同时关注贸易局势的最新发展。现货金上 涨2.3%，至每盎司3315.09美元；美国期金收涨2.4%，报3322.3美元。美国总统特朗普宣布对海外生产 的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。交易员们在等待美联储主席鲍威 尔将于周三发表的评论，以获得有关利率路径的线索。 黄金价格上涨的驱动因素 美元走软 美元的走软是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素之一。美元作为全球主要储备货币，其汇率的波动对黄金价 格有着显著影响。美元走软使得黄金对持有其他货币的投资者来说更具吸引力，从而推动了黄金价格的 上涨。 避险需求增加 黄金市场的避险需求与政策预期 ETO外汇认为黄金市场的上涨反映了美元走软和避险需求的增加。尽管市场普 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, log, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). The overall market shows a mixed trend, with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and some to have potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse may lead to a post-holiday price decline. Suggest a long PX and short SC strategy. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the de-stocking rate may slow down [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short SC strategy. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and the de-stocking pattern continues. Consider a 6 - 9 positive spread operation [9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short MEG strategy. Supply will continue to increase, and port inventory de-stocking is difficult [9]. Rubber - Expected to trade in a range. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Expected to face downward pressure and trade in a range. Although the valuation provides some support, the driving force is downward due to the decline in crude oil prices during the holiday [14][16]. Asphalt - Expected to weaken following oil prices, with the crack spread likely to continue to recover. Current production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory shows a mixed trend [17][29]. LLDPE - The trend is weak. Trade war impacts and high supply with weak demand are the main factors. New capacity is expected to be put into operation, and demand from downstream industries is limited [30][31]. PP - Prices have slightly declined, and trading volume has decreased. The market is weakly sorted, and downstream demand is flat after pre-holiday stocking [34][35]. Caustic Soda - Expected to trade in a range in the short term but face pressure later. Demand is in the off-season, and supply reduction is needed to balance the market [37][38]. Pulp - Expected to trade in a wide range. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [42][44]. Log - Expected to trade weakly in a range. The number of incoming ships and the volume of incoming goods have decreased [47][51]. Methanol - Expected to operate weakly. The market is in a pattern of high domestic production, high imports, high profits, and gradually increasing inventory [52][55]. Urea - Expected to trade in a range with increased support at the lower end. Production enterprise inventory may decline, and the futures market is expected to be volatile [57][58]. Styrene - Expected to trade weakly. The pure benzene market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and downstream negative feedback is expected to be transmitted [60][61]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The market is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term, with stable production and weak downstream demand [63][65]. LPG - The support from crude oil is weakening. Pay attention to the inter-month positive spread strategy. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in production capacity utilization [67][74]. PVC - Expected to trade weakly. High production and high inventory structure are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market is under pressure from supply and demand [76][77]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The external spot price has dropped significantly, and the short-term trend is expected to weaken further. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high and low sulfur in the external market has widened [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to trade at a low level in a range. Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 reverse spread [82].

美元信用缺失 金价延续牛市 美国经济走软 市场押注宽松 在特朗普的关税政策之下，即使选择要跟多个国家进行谈判，但也表明不可能完全取消加征的关税，在这个背景下，国际投行 们以及美联储都对美国未来经济的不确定性感到担忧，并且大幅下调美国经济增长预期。 近期，美联储官员频繁释放降息信号，为货币政策转向进行前瞻性指引。美联储官员哈玛克指出，若经济数据表现明朗，美联 储或于6月启动降息；沃勒则表示，一旦关税政策致使失业率攀升，美联储大概率将开启降息周期。 美联储始终强调依据美国经济数据制定货币政策，而特朗普的关税政策极有可能引发失业率上升。由此来看，美联储在下半年 重启降息操作的可能性极高，这无疑为黄金价格上涨提供了有利支撑。 贸易战迎缓和 金价出现修正 北京时间4月初，美国宣布对等关税举措，全球贸易局势骤然升温。这一动态取代此前美国通胀高企、经济增长乏力等因素，成 为推动黄金价格上行的全新动力。尤其是全球两大经济体间的博弈显著升级，市场交易行为已开始为世界新秩序重塑的潜在可 能性定价，促使黄金价格一路飙升，成功触及3500美元关口。 然而，到了4月中下旬，特朗普政府释放出贸易局势缓和信号，并与部分国家展开贸易谈判，短 ...

招商评论 铜 相对于国内 4 月 30 日收盘，5 月 2 日收盘 LME 铜价上涨 0.3%。 宏观来看，市场有贸易战缓和预期，全球股票指数节日内表现偏强。美国 PCE 数据符合预期，非农数据强于 预期，美元指数在关键位置继续震荡。但市场对于美元贬值预期较强，亚洲国家和地区货币对美元大幅升值， 市场担忧对美国资产的抛售再度到来。微观来看，铜矿紧张格局延续，周度 TC 在-42.6 美金。国内平水铜成 交升水来到 200 元以上，国内 back950 元，伦敦结构也来到 20 美金 back。伴随全球库存的快速去化，铜价 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 贸易战反复 2025年05月06日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 五一小长假海外贵金属市场走弱，以伦敦金为代表的国际金价周四下跌 1.53%，不过随后企稳。 | | 属 | 【消息面】由沙特阿拉伯领导的 OPEC+八国生产商集团周六达成协议，决定在 6 月份再次增产 41.1 万桶/日 | | | 再次拖累油价走弱；第二轮日美关税谈判结束，石破茂强硬表态：绝不接受 ...

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Oil prices declined weakly during the domestic holiday. Brent 07 contract dropped 3.8% compared to the closing on April 30. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue in July. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Precious metals fluctuated widely during the May Day holiday. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but it's advisable to wait for a pullback before layout [3]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. The 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil spot is at a discount, and the ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil spot shows a strong spread [21]. - Asphalt is expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. However, with improved supply - demand, the BU crack spread is expected to be volatile and strong [22]. - LPG has support in the overseas market due to chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure as PDH plants enter maintenance. The price is expected to be volatile [23]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated during the holiday. LME copper inventories dropped to 197,700 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased to 146,500 short tons. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum prices may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range due to uncertain demand in the off - season [5]. - Alumina production has decreased, but capacity may resume. The price is expected to be volatile, and it's advisable to short on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are weak. With expected imports and weak downstream consumption in the off - season, it's advisable to short on rallies [7]. - Lead prices are weak due to high inventories. The spot import window may open after the holiday, and the price is expected to range between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel prices are at the end of a rebound. Observe for new short - building opportunities [9]. - Tin prices declined due to weak Korean manufacturing and concerns about demand. Hold short positions against 265,000 [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a downward channel. Hold short positions as supply is elastic and inventories are increasing [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure. Supply - demand structure is poor with slow production resumption and weak demand in the photovoltaic and organic silicon industries [12]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to follow the downward trend of the photovoltaic industry. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but inventories are rising slightly [13]. Group 3: Ferrous Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are volatile. Rebar demand improved, and inventories decreased. Hot - rolled coil supply - demand stabilized, and inventories continued to decline. Pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy implementation [14]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. Supply is increasing seasonally, and domestic port inventories are rising. Pay attention to the pressure when iron - water production peaks [15]. - Coke's second price increase was rejected. Inventories remain high, and pay attention to steel exports [16]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Production is gradually recovering, but inventories are high, and downstream procurement is for rigid demand [17]. - Silicomanganese prices are under pressure. Inventories are increasing, and it's advisable to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, but inventories are rising. Short on rallies [19]. Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices may decline after the holiday. Supply is sufficient, and pay attention to export dynamics [24]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [25]. - Styrene prices face increasing supply - demand contradictions. Costs are weakening, and production is expected to increase while demand is weak [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are volatile and weak. Demand is weak, and inventories increased during the holiday, but supply pressure may ease with more maintenance [27]. - PVC and caustic soda prices: PVC may be low - level volatile due to weak domestic demand. Caustic soda's profitability improved, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PX and PTA prices are driven by oil prices. Supply is contracting, but polyester industry's centralized production cuts are a potential risk [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are weak. Supply is temporarily contracting, but short - term imports are high, and the price is affected by oil prices [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials. Pay attention to trade frictions and terminal orders after the holiday [30]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are volatile. The US soybean planting season is important. The domestic supply pattern will shift from tight to loose. Soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic soybean supply pattern will change [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: The supply of rapeseed meal may ease in the long - term. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [36]. - Corn prices are volatile. Port inventory pressure decreased, and downstream starch production increased. Pay attention to market divergence [38]. - Hog prices are stable during the holiday. Future supply is expected to increase, and pay attention to the decline in spot prices [39]. - Egg prices are expected to be weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand will be weak in the off - season and during the rainy season [40]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rebounded, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and external demand is under pressure [41]. - Sugar prices are volatile. Brazil's new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and pay attention to weather in Guangxi [42]. - Apple prices are volatile. Spot sales are good, and inventory is low. Pay attention to new - season production [43]. Group 6: Others - Container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile and weak. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract is affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks [20]. - Wood prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - Pulp prices are weak. Inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The fundamental situation remains weak [45]. - Stock index futures may recover in the short - term following the improvement of global risk appetite. The market style may shift to technology - growth [46]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. Manufacturing expansion slowed, and risk appetite recovered [47].

外交部发言人林剑5月6日主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问，美国总统特朗普在近期的采访中称， 他不会为了和中国举行谈判而取消对华的关税。目前，双方在进行谈判的意愿上有多接近？ 对此，林剑表示："这场关税战是美方挑起的，中方的态度是一贯的，也是明确的。打，奉陪到底。 谈，大门敞开。"林剑强调，美方近期不断表示，希望同中方进行谈判。关税战贸易战没有赢家。如 果美方真想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁、施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方 开展对话。 ...

尽管制造业受高关税影响出现萎缩，但服务业仍保持韧性，美国4月ISM服务业PMI超预期，扭转了前一个月的下滑趋势。 该数据支持美元小幅上涨约0.2%，缓解了因美国贸易协议乐观情绪而导致的亚洲货币大幅升值，日元略微走软。新台币兑美元延续跌势，一度跌 0.4%至30.275。台湾证交所加权股价指数收盘变动不大，报20522.59点。 标普500指数期货一度跌0.4%。个股方面，福特汽车因关税担忧撤回财务指引，Palantir业绩未达预期，股价盘前重挫约10%。投资者关注美联储 周三的决议，市场普遍预期，在贸易战和强劲就业数据的矛盾中，美联储可能继续保持观望。 | = US 30 | 41,145.00 | 41,250.50 | 41,110.00 | -74.10 | -0.18% | 15:24:12 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 5,632.90 | 5,652.40 | 5,625.50 | -17.70 | -0.31% | 15:24:12 9 | | 트 US Tech 100 | 19,860.70 | 19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between China and India, marked by India's imposition of tariffs on steel imports and China's anti-dumping investigation into medical equipment components, reflect deeper strategic rivalries rather than isolated economic disputes [1][3][10]. Trade Policies - India has imposed a 12% temporary tariff on imported steel products to protect its domestic industry from what it perceives as cheap Chinese imports, claiming it aims to curb the impact on local manufacturers [3][5]. - The Indian government has previously enacted selective bans on Chinese products, such as drone components and apps, while allowing American companies to operate freely, indicating a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [3][5]. Strategic Implications - The timing of India's tariff announcement coincided with the U.S. extending tariffs on Chinese goods, suggesting a coordinated effort to counter China [3][10]. - India's approach to balancing relations with major powers, including the U.S. and Russia, while simultaneously engaging in confrontational policies towards China, highlights its complex geopolitical strategy [5][10]. Economic Impact - China's response to India's tariffs includes a swift anti-dumping investigation into critical components for medical imaging equipment, which could significantly impact India's healthcare sector, as 65% of its high-end medical imaging devices are imported, with 40% from China [7][11]. - The potential expansion of China's countermeasures to include India's pharmaceutical and IT sectors, where India exports over $3 billion in drug raw materials to China, could lead to severe economic repercussions for India [7][11]. Trade Relations - In 2024, the trade volume between China and India exceeded $130 billion, with China remaining India's largest trading partner for the 15th consecutive year, surpassing India's trade with the U.S., Russia, and Japan combined [11][16]. - Despite political rhetoric advocating for reduced dependence on China, Indian imports from China increased by 7.3% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a reliance on Chinese goods [11][16].