Core Viewpoint - India has unexpectedly retaliated against the U.S. by imposing tariffs on American goods, signaling a willingness to confront U.S. trade policies, reminiscent of China's approach [1][3][18] Trade Actions - On July 4, India announced retaliatory tariffs on 28 categories of U.S. products, including almonds, walnuts, and apples, targeting key agricultural exports [3][5] - This move comes after years of frustration, as India had previously endured U.S. tariffs on its steel and aluminum products since 2018 [3][5] Political Context - The timing of India's tariffs coincides with the recent 2024 elections, where Prime Minister Modi's government faces criticism over economic slowdown and high unemployment [5][18] - Modi's administration aims to demonstrate strength and protect national interests, hoping to rally domestic support by showing that India will not be easily bullied [5][9] Economic Considerations - Despite the bold stance, India's tariffs are carefully chosen to avoid core U.S. technology products, indicating a cautious approach to avoid escalating tensions [5][16] - India's economy is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 17% of total exports, valued at $83 billion [16][18] Geopolitical Dynamics - Modi's government seeks to leverage India's large consumer market and geopolitical significance to negotiate with the U.S., similar to strategies employed by China and the EU [9][18] - However, the U.S. response could include punitive tariffs of up to 500%, particularly targeting India's oil imports from Russia, which could severely impact India's economy [11][18] Manufacturing and Trade Challenges - India's manufacturing sector faces significant challenges, including high logistics costs and lower efficiency compared to China, which undermines its position as a potential "world factory" [15][18] - The current trade conflict highlights India's vulnerabilities, as it lacks the comprehensive industrial strength that China possesses, making it difficult to sustain a prolonged trade battle [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - China has reiterated its stance against tariff increases, emphasizing that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners and that protectionism is not a viable solution [1][2]. Group 1: China's Position on Tariffs - China has consistently opposed tariff wars and the use of tariffs as tools for coercion, stating that arbitrary tariff increases do not benefit any party involved [2]. - The BRICS mechanism is highlighted as an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, promoting openness and inclusivity without targeting any specific nation [1][2]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Developments - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariff negotiations set for July 9, with President Trump indicating that a combination of letters and agreements will be sent out to various countries [3][4]. - Trump confirmed that the related tariffs are set to take effect on August 1, with potential letters involving different amounts and wording for various economies [4]. - The U.S. has proposed significant "reciprocal tariffs" on allies, with rates as high as 25% for some countries and even higher for Southeast Asian nations [5]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Context - The U.S. International Trade Court has ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to questions about the legality of unilateral tariff notifications [7][8]. - Legal experts suggest that unilateral tariff imposition may violate international law and could be challenged in the World Trade Organization (WTO) [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intensifying trade conflict initiated by the U.S., with President Trump planning to notify over 170 countries about impending tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance [1][3][10] - The U.S. has only successfully negotiated agreements with the UK and Vietnam, with both countries accepting tariffs of 10% and 20% respectively, showcasing the slow progress in negotiations with other nations [1][3] - Trump’s frustration with the slow negotiation process has led him to opt for a direct communication method, sending approximately 10 letters daily to inform countries of their respective tariff rates [1][3] Group 2 - The potential tariff rates for countries could range from 20% to 30%, with Japan facing threats of 30% to 35% tariffs due to stalled negotiations on key issues like rice and automobiles [3][7] - The European Union has taken a hardline stance, demanding the U.S. lift existing tariffs before any agreements can be made, while also preparing for potential retaliatory measures [3][10] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" has emboldened Trump’s tariff policies, as it aims to fill the fiscal gap created by tax cuts and increased government spending through tariff revenues [4][5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. has made recent moves to ease restrictions on exports to China, indicating a potential de-escalation in the trade war, contrasting with the aggressive tariff strategy towards other nations [8] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise export costs for countries closely trading with the U.S., potentially harming their economic growth and employment [10] - While tariffs may temporarily boost U.S. fiscal revenues, they could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation in the long run, negatively impacting American consumers [10]

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/7/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 最新 | | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1888.500 -3.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1350 | -12.40↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 538.50 +30.50↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | | 364.60 | +27.70↑ | | | EC合约基差 234.74 -38.60↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1857↓ | 34521 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 2258.04 134.80↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,557.77 | 61.42↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1763.49 -98.02↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1342.99 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The PMI in June shows that the domestic economic prosperity generally maintains an expansion trend, suggesting an increase in stock market holdings based on fundamentals. The State Council's emphasis on strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. However, the potential restart of the US - China trade war poses a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) is at 3918.0, down 12.0; IF sub - main contract (2507) is at 3945.0, down 12.4. IH main contract (2509) is at 2708.0, down 3.2; IH sub - main contract (2507) is at 2713.6, down 3.8. IC main contract (2509) is at 5747.6, down 12.4; IC sub - main contract (2507) is at 5859.2, down 10.8. IM main contract (2509) is at 6111.6, up 4.4; IM sub - main contract (2507) is at 6267.2, up 8.0 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1231.4, down 9.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1914.2, up 3.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread is 408.0, up 20.2; IC - IH current - month contract spread is 3145.6, down 5.6. IM - IF current - month contract spread is 2322.2, up 24.0; IM - IH current - month contract spread is 3553.6, up 14.6 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month is - 27.0, up 0.8; IF next - quarter minus current - month is - 62, up 2.8. IH current - quarter minus current - month is - 5.6, up 0.2; IH next - quarter minus current - month is - 5.8, up 2.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month is - 111.6, down 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month is - 235.4, down 3.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month is - 155.6, down 5.8; IM next - quarter minus current - month is - 340.6, down 10.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,779.00, up 4.0; IH top 20 net position is - 12,713.00, down 181.0. IC top 20 net position is 8,978.00, down 99.0; IM top 20 net position is - 34,962.00, down 2800.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 is at 3965.17, down 17.0; IF main contract basis is - 47.2, down 1.0. SSE 50 is at 2731.53, down 8.9; IH main contract basis is - 23.5, down 0.3. CSI 500 is at 5900.41, down 11.0; IC main contract basis is - 152.8, down 6.8. CSI 1000 main contract basis is - 2274.53 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 6327.14 billion yuan, up 14.9%. Margin trading balance is 18,529.27 billion yuan, down 15.5%. Northbound trading volume is 1591.20 billion yuan, up 127.31 billion yuan. Reverse repurchase (maturity, operation amount) is - 3315.0 billion yuan, up 1065.0 billion yuan. Main funds (yesterday, today) are - 321.43 billion yuan and - 178.63 billion yuan respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks is 60.08%, up 38.50%. Shibor is 1.312%, down 0.001%. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) is 31.80, down 10.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility is 11.05%, up 0.37%. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) is 35.20, up 8.00; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility is 11.05%, up 0.32% [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility is 9.33%, up 0.19%. Volume PCR is 60.51%, up 12.79%. Position PCR is 70.09%, down 2.52% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score 5.40, up 2.00; technical aspect scores 6.00, up 3.90; capital aspect scores 4.80, up 0.10 [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index is 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - US President Trump said on July 4th that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which are likely to take effect on August 1st, and the new tariff rates may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70% [2] - As of July 6th, 54 A - share listed companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, including 11 with slight increases, 3 turning losses into profits, 4 with continued profits, and 21 with pre - increases [2] Market Performance - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.21%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. About 3200 stocks rose. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the comprehensive and public utilities sectors strengthening and the coal sector leading the decline [2]

毛宁对此表示，金砖机制是新兴市场和发展中国家合作的重要平台，倡导开放包容、合作共赢，不搞阵营对 抗，不针对任何国家。关于加征关税，中方已经多次阐明了立场，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出 路。 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 来源：环球时报-环球网报道 责编：汪云鹏 校对： 王锦程 外交部发言人毛宁主持7月7日例行记者会。会上有外媒记者提问称：金砖国家峰会将于今天闭幕，昨天美国总 统特朗普批评金砖国家推行"反美政策"，并威胁对其成员国加征10%的新关税，请问中方对此有何评论？ 百万用户都在看 突发警告！刚刚，美国传出大动作 刚刚！特朗普，签了！ 重大进展！特朗普，传来大消息！ 突发！超10万人爆仓！一则利空，突然引爆！ 午后，突发！直线飙升，发生了什么？ 集体大涨！特朗普，新计划曝光！ ...

来源：央视新闻客户端 7月7日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问，金砖国家峰会将于今天闭幕，昨天美 国总统特朗普批评金砖国家推行反美政策，并威胁对其成员国加征10%的新关税，请问中方对此 有何评论？ 毛宁表示，金砖机制是新兴市场和发展中国家合作的重要平台，倡导开放包容、合作共赢，不搞 阵营对抗，不针对任何国家。 关于加征关税，中方已经多次阐明了立场，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The BRICS mechanism serves as an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, promoting openness, inclusivity, and win-win cooperation without engaging in camp confrontation or targeting any specific country [1]. Group 1 - The BRICS summit is highlighted as a significant event for emerging markets and developing countries [1]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff battles, advocating against protectionism [2].

Core Viewpoint - The BRICS mechanism serves as an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, promoting openness, inclusivity, and win-win cooperation, while rejecting camp confrontation and targeting any specific country [1]. Group 1 - The BRICS summit is highlighted as a significant event for emerging markets and developing countries [1]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff battles, and that protectionism is not a viable solution [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights criticism from former President Trump regarding the BRICS nations' "anti-American policies," with a response from China emphasizing the importance of the BRICS mechanism as a platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries [1] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, stated that the BRICS mechanism advocates for openness, inclusivity, and win-win cooperation, rejecting camp confrontation and targeting any specific country [1] - Mao Ning reiterated China's stance on tariffs, asserting that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners and that protectionism is not a viable solution [1]