摘要今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3333.03美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报3333.03 美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短 线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储正着力应对一项分歧显著的难题，当下市场已普遍预期下月将降息25个基点，而美国总统特朗普 亦力促主席鲍威尔下调利率。 美联储官员始终紧盯关税对通胀的潜在效应。然而，近期消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数的数据表 明，因7月服务通胀意外攀升，关税的影响似乎微乎其微。鉴于服务业在美国经济体中占据主导地位， 而商品仅占GDP的11%，此现象引发部分官员警觉。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比上周发出警示：若后续报 告持续显示服务通胀上扬，将成为重大隐患。 其他多位地方联储主席对通胀的忧虑更为深切，包括堪萨斯城的杰夫·施密德、克利夫 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish sign. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral, with carbon neutrality curbing capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market and volatile macro sentiment. The basis is neutral with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality is positive for aluminum prices, but the US tariff expansion creates a mixed situation and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Price**: Yesterday's Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's price was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market appears stable with minor fluctuations, but underlying movements suggest a strategic repositioning by major funds in anticipation of an upcoming interest rate cut [1][3] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq managed to close slightly positive, and the S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Jackson Hole annual meeting is a key event, with an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a significant shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve [3] - The initial phase of a rate cut cycle often leads to increased market volatility, necessitating a cautious approach [3] Technology Sector Analysis - Major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft are undergoing significant strategic changes, with Meta's AI business experiencing four restructurings in six months, reminiscent of Nokia's past adjustments [3] - Despite recent volatility, companies like NVIDIA are positioned for long-term growth due to sustained demand for AI computing power [3] Retail Sector Outlook - Upcoming earnings reports from retail giants such as Walmart and Home Depot will serve as indicators of the U.S. consumer market's health [4] - Experts suggest that tariffs and inflation may negatively impact these earnings, but companies that can pass on cost pressures to consumers may thrive [4] Geopolitical Developments - Recent geopolitical events, including discussions between Trump and Putin regarding direct negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have implications for oil prices, which have risen despite expectations of a decline [5] - The market's reaction to geopolitical news often reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality, with energy sector leaders potentially benefiting from these dynamics [5] Investment Strategies - Two main investment themes are emerging: "rate cut beneficiaries," particularly high-debt, high-growth small-cap tech companies, and "policy beneficiaries" linked to tax cuts and manufacturing incentives [5] - Financial and energy sectors are viewed as stabilizing forces in a volatile market, providing consistent returns [5]

市场就是如此扑朔迷离，刚刚登上新高的比特币，还没来得及欢欣鼓舞，就在4天内下挫接近1万美元， 甚至还有进一步下探趋势。而近期最亮的"仔"以太坊也不遑多让，迎头上升的大好态势被斩断，从4788 美元回到了4300美元下方。对波动更为敏感的山寨市场再度被抽血，多数代币下跌超15%，给蠢蠢欲动 的山寨板块又降了一次温。 要是回顾降息这一议题，在美国，堪称一场政治大戏。 紧缩周期已长达三年的美国，成效显著。无论外界是否怨声载道，通胀率逐渐可控是事实，而拜登当时 的改善家庭资产负债表直接发钱的操作虽给通胀带来挑战，但也的确通过将债务从家庭转嫁给政府，促 使美国完成了经济软着陆。 然而，本来预计今年就快结束的紧缩周期，让特朗普横插一脚的关税大战所打破。美联储陷入了两难境 地，一方面，GDP萎缩与通胀高企两难全；另一方面，保留冗余以应对总统的后续政策也有必要。特朗 普与美联储的对立格局，就此形成。 这厢特朗普气急败坏，连发数条社媒认为美联储降息过晚，威胁要让鲍威尔下台，甚至找上影子主席， 要在美联储安插自己人，祭出"后继有人"的大招。那厢鲍威尔顶住压力坚守阵地，硬刚"他没资格开除 我"，表示CPI和通胀才是决定一切的核心。 ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show signs of recovery, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 2.6%, driven by private consumption growth of 2.2% and private investment growth of 2.3% [2] - The job market remains stable, with initial jobless claims at 224,000 and continuing claims at 1.953 million, indicating a balanced employment situation with limited upward pressure on the unemployment rate [2] - Inflationary pressures are rising, with July PPI unexpectedly increasing to 3.3%, raising concerns about inflation despite the primary driver being structural growth in asset management fees [2] Group 2: US Stock Market Performance - US stocks are on an upward trend, supported by strong corporate earnings, with S&P 500 companies showing an EPS growth rate of 11.8% and approximately 81% exceeding earnings expectations [3] - Despite the positive earnings outlook, stock valuations are considered high, limiting further upside potential [3] - The bond market is expected to experience limited downward movement in yields due to market expectations of a rate cut being largely priced in [3] Group 3: Chinese Economic Conditions - China's economy is experiencing a slowdown, with external demand strengthening while internal demand and production are both slowing down [6] - July's export growth was 8% year-on-year, while investment growth fell to 1.6% and retail sales growth dropped to 3.7% [6] - Financial data shows a divergence, with social financing growth rising to 9.0% but new RMB loans declining to a historical low [6] Group 4: Policy Measures in China - The Chinese government has introduced two subsidy policies aimed at boosting consumption, including personal consumption loan subsidies and service industry loan subsidies, which are expected to stimulate demand [9] - The central bank's monetary policy remains focused on maintaining a moderately loose stance, with potential for further easing if economic conditions worsen [10] - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a central theme in financial policy, emphasizing a balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining financial health [10] Group 5: Market Strategies - The domestic market is seeing a gradual recovery in risk appetite, with a recommendation to hold medium to short-duration bonds while being cautious with long-duration bonds [11] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by a loose monetary policy and improving economic expectations [12] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index is benefiting from US rate cut expectations, with a focus on dividend assets and technology sectors for investment [13]

Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is facing a more severe macro environment in 2025 compared to the previous year, necessitating interest rate cuts to counteract a noticeable slowdown in growth[3] - The Federal Reserve has already lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points over the past year, but further cuts may be required to stimulate the economy[3] Interest Rate Outlook - Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting, with the market currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September[3] - Any guidance provided may lean towards hawkish expectations, suggesting fewer cuts and a higher terminal rate for the year[3] Employment Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August will be crucial in determining the September rate cut decision, focusing on the revisions in employment numbers rather than just new job additions[3] - A stable unemployment rate and upward revisions in previous employment figures could lead Powell to reject the September rate cut[3] Market Reactions - The market should not be surprised by ambiguous or hawkish statements from the Fed, as inconsistent data may lead to a more cautious approach rather than reinforcing a unilateral expectation[3] - The report indicates that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a decline in labor force participation and employment rates[34] Global Economic Factors - Increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies may lead to greater volatility in financial markets and faster capital flight from the dollar[4] - Global economic conditions are expected to be impacted by clearer tariffs, potentially leading to synchronized monetary easing that exceeds expectations[4]

黄金方面： 美国最新CPI为2.7%，低于市场预期的2.8%，但明显处于上升通道。美国7月PPI环比上涨0.9%，为2022年4月以来的最大涨幅， 同比涨幅从前值的2.4%上涨至3.3%，是今年3月以来的新高。整体而言美国通胀数据并不乐观，对降息的限制依然很大。 目前市场押注美联储会在9月降息，芝商所"联邦利率观察工具"显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率高达84.6%，市场几乎笃定 9月会降息，但美联储官员并未给出更多指引，降息可能只是市场的一厢情愿。 智昇研究投资策略师市场策略师鹏程认为，在通胀高企的情况下，美联储也会投鼠忌器，贸然降息，通胀可能会继续走高，会 对美国经济形成更大的冲击，投资者应对美联储降息持谨慎态度。 技术面：黄金日线受长期均线支撑明显，但上升与下跌力度都不强。1小时周期价格进入前期成交密集区，短期趋势改变，且价 格站上均线系统。短线可关注下方3341美元一线的支撑。 美元指数： 近期美元指数处于震荡调整的态势，当下市场对美元的前景也较为犹豫，长期来看，特朗普追求弱势美元，一直力主降息，甚 至不惜干扰美联储的决策。美联储为维护自身独立性，也一直强调当下不符合降息的条件。 结合美国当下的通 ...

Group 1 - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic events and data releases for the upcoming week, focusing on the potential for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts and the highly anticipated Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] - Key economic indicators to watch include US housing market data, Canadian CPI, UK and Eurozone CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, global PMI data, and German GDP along with UK retail sales [1] Group 2 - On Monday and Tuesday, the US housing market data will be released, including the NAHB housing market index and July new housing starts and building permits, indicating resilience in the US residential construction sector despite high interest rates and economic uncertainty [3] - The Canadian CPI for July will also be released, with market expectations suggesting the Bank of Canada may maintain a pause on interest rate cuts, potentially lowering rates to 2.25% by year-end [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to weak labor market data and low inflation expectations, following a significant rate reduction of 225 basis points since last August [5] - The UK and Eurozone CPI reports will be closely monitored, with the UK CPI unexpectedly rising to its highest level in over a year, which may influence the Bank of England's future decisions [5] Group 4 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes, providing insights into the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts, while the Jackson Hole global central bank conference will feature key speeches, including one from Fed Chair Powell [6][7] - Initial PMI data for August will be released, with a focus on manufacturing and services sectors across various countries, indicating potential economic expansion or contraction [6] Group 5 - On Friday, attention will turn to Germany's second-quarter GDP final value, which is expected to confirm a 0.1% contraction, alongside retail sales data from the UK and Canada [9] - The UK retail sales for July are anticipated to show a continuation of the rebound seen in the previous month, driven by seasonal factors [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Underperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - US inflation data is divided, with July CPI lower than expected but PPI far exceeding expectations. However, most institutions maintain the prediction of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, and the market fully prices in two interest rate cuts within the year [2] - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference is expected to focus on the policy framework rather than interest rate cut guidance. Powell may use the framework adjustment to re - emphasize the central bank's independence, and there is a potential "expectation gap" risk [3] - US Treasury yields have risen, and the yield curve has become steeper. It is recommended to maintain medium - and short - duration US Treasuries as the core allocation and moderately increase high - grade Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, while being cautious about long - end fluctuations [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios of various maturities, issuance winning bid rates of 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance volume of US Treasuries, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market are presented [14][22][24] 2. US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Data on US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claims, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales volume year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions are shown [28][30][42] 3. Exchange Rates - Information about the one - year trend of non - US currencies, changes in non - US currencies in the past two weeks, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange hedging cost is provided [56][58][60] 4. Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The price trends of US dollar bonds in the US, the combined US - European US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, along with the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price increases and decreases of US Treasury ETFs of different maturities [63][68][72] 5. Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - The return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector are shown [81][84][89] 6. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating upgrades, 1 rating withdrawal, and 2 initial ratings [91]

Group 1 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised due to President Trump's criticism of its interest rate cuts, which could lead to increased risk premiums on U.S. Treasury bonds and weaken confidence in the dollar [1][2] - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 100 basis points by June 2026, driven by labor market and inflation data rather than political pressure [1][2] - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts has heightened uncertainty regarding its leadership and policy direction, although UBS believes a direct challenge to the Fed's autonomy is unlikely [1][2] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve Chair were to be dismissed, it could trigger significant market reactions and raise questions about the long-term credibility of U.S. monetary policy [3] - UBS maintains that high-quality bonds, including U.S. Treasuries, remain attractive investments despite concerns over the Fed's independence, as they offer stable returns in a potentially declining interest rate environment [2][3] - The historical context of the Federal Reserve's independence, established by the 1951 Treasury-Fed Agreement, suggests that political challenges to its autonomy have not succeeded in the past [2]