Group 1 - Speculators exhibit strong bearish sentiment, with net short positions in U.S. corn futures reaching a nine-month high [1] - Market expectations are divided on whether there will be a supply surplus or shortage [1] - Negative sentiment in the U.S. biofuel market is impacting oilseed futures [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Alumina futures: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Stock index futures: Bullish, recommend buying on dips [6] - Gold: Bullish in the long - term, recommend buying on dips [11] - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - Glass: Oscillating with a bullish bias for now [17] - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short - term [20] 2) Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the sharp drop in alumina futures attracted market attention. The supply - demand imbalance, with over - capacity on the supply side and weak demand, may lead to continued downward pressure on prices, but Guinea's mining policies bring uncertainties [3]. - A - shares closed up for three consecutive days. The financial regulatory authority's support for science and technology innovation and the research on science and technology insurance policies are positive for the market [6][7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillating pattern but is bullish in the long run [11]. - For iron ore, although there are risks of over - valuation due to weak reality, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has no major cold - repair due to losses, and demand needs the stimulation of real estate policies [17][18]. - Urea has a high daily output and slow agricultural demand, so it is expected to be weak in the short - term [20]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - On June 5, 2025, the futures price dropped nearly 3% at the morning close. Supply is increasing due to new capacity and restored supply from Guinea, while demand is weak with low downstream purchasing willingness [3]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares had three consecutive positive closes. The financial regulatory authority's support for science and technology innovation and policy research on science and technology insurance are positive. Recommend buying on dips [6][7]. Gold - Gold is in a short - term oscillating pattern, but long - term bullish. Recommend buying on dips and avoid chasing high prices [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are increasing shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. Consider an oscillating and bullish view [14][15]. Glass - The supply side has no major cold - repair due to losses, and factory inventories are high. Downstream demand needs the effect of real - estate stimulation policies. Technically, it oscillated down today but did not break the low in the daily - line level. Keep an oscillating and bullish view for now [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily output is about 205600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Rolling short selling [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [3] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows a pessimistic economic outlook, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Nickel remains in a range - bound pattern. Nickel ore prices are seasonally weak, and the overall supply of nickel is in surplus. Demand is weak, with the main operating range between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [1][2] Zinc - From January to April, the revenue and profit of large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased. Zinc supply is generally loose, while demand has some resilience but is expected to be weak in the short term. Overall, it is bearish [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - For nickel and stainless steel, the Fed's "Beige Book" on June 4 shows that US economic activity has declined slightly, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Some regions' enterprises increased procurement due to tariffs, and the residential real estate market was basically flat [1] - For zinc, from January to April, 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises had a revenue of 3.08779 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. The revenue profit margin was 4.15%, 0.39 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] Supply - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore shipments and domestic arrivals have increased, and nickel ore prices have weakened seasonally. Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased, while Indonesian nickel - iron production has increased rapidly (year - on - year increase over 30%, month - on - month increase over 10%). Domestic nickel - iron imports and total supply are high, remaining in surplus. Electrolytic nickel production has a small month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase of over 45% [1] - **Zinc**: During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Both integrated and smelting enterprises will maintain high production, and the supply of zinc ingots is generally loose [3] Demand - **Nickel**: In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the cost of nickel is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support for downstream nickel sulfate is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers previously had high stainless - steel production, but nickel - iron profits have shrunk since May, which may affect stainless - steel production. Overall, demand is weak [2] - **Zinc**: Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. Zinc oxide's upward trend is due to seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but there is an expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates. Overall, short - term zinc demand is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4] Conclusion - **Nickel and stainless steel**: The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions and roll short after rebounds [2] - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, and the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the terminal, so it is bearish overall. It is recommended to short with a light position [4][5]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌上海报道 为了夺回市场份额，惩罚超额生产的成员国，欧佩克+同意7月份增产41.1万桶/日，连续三个月大幅增 产。 在欧佩克+会议前，哈萨克斯坦特地表示不会削减产量，在欧佩克+内部引发了激烈讨论，一度引发市 场对更大幅度增产的担忧。哈萨克斯坦长期以来一直超出其配额进行生产，日产量持续超标数十万桶， 这一行为激怒了其他成员国。 一方面，欧佩克+增产的举动反映了沙特希望惩罚哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等生产过剩的成员国；另一方 面，增产也是为了收复被美国页岩油生产商和其他竞争对手抢走的市场份额。 事实上，欧佩克在全球石油市场的主导地位已经被大幅削弱，产量份额从十年前的约40%降至今年的不 到25%，而美国份额则从14%上升至约20%。 欧佩克+增产并不意外，但奇怪的是，国际油价却不跌反涨。6月2日，布伦特原油期货收高2.95%。美 国原油上涨2.85%，报62.52美元/桶，盘中一度暴涨逾5%。 尽管油价意外暴涨，但在供应过剩阴霾下，市场仍忧心忡忡：油价大涨的势头会否"昙花一现"？"漫长 的增产期"？ 欧佩克+会议上，包括俄罗斯在内的部分成员国对此次增产表示反对，一些国家甚至游说暂停7月份的 增产计划 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices in China are a direct response to fluctuations in international oil prices, which are influenced by various geopolitical and market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from June 3, 2025, the prices of gasoline and diesel will increase by 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - This price increase will raise costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated additional cost of approximately 2.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank in a standard private vehicle and an increase of 2 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven by a fully loaded 50-ton logistics vehicle [1]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The "OPEC+" group, consisting of eight oil-producing countries, has decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, maintaining the same production increase as in May and June [2]. - The decision to adjust production is based on a stable market outlook and low oil inventories, with plans for flexible adjustments to maintain market stability [2]. - Despite the planned increase in production, the onset of the traditional U.S. fuel consumption season and uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to provide support for international oil prices, indicating a high probability of further increases in domestic fuel prices in the next pricing cycle [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights a warning of oversupply in the rubber market, leading to a significant decline in Japanese rubber futures prices, which have reached a one-year low [1] - The market is experiencing weak demand, raising concerns about the future outlook for rubber futures prices [1] Industry Summary - The rubber futures market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, which is impacting pricing negatively [1] - Demand for rubber is reported to be sluggish, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [1]

Group 1 - Hedge funds are aggressively betting on a decline in oil prices, with net short positions in Brent crude oil increasing by 16,922 contracts to 130,019 contracts, the highest level since October of the previous year [1] - The net short positions for WTI crude oil have also risen to a three-week high, indicating a bearish sentiment across the oil market [1] - Gasoline's net short positions have reached a four-week high, suggesting that investors are pessimistic about the entire oil supply chain [1] Group 2 - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting, led by Saudi Arabia, is a key catalyst for the current wave of short selling, with preliminary negotiations indicating a potential third consecutive increase in production [1] - Concerns about oversupply have intensified due to the optimistic signals regarding the U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement, which could lead to additional Iranian oil entering the market [4][5] - Analysts believe that the combination of these negative factors is driving hedge fund managers to establish significant short positions, as they perceive that current oil price levels cannot withstand the impending supply shock [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI crude oil prices will remain low and weak in 2025-2026 compared to current levels [1] - The firm has consistently taken a bearish stance on oil prices, citing an oversupply in the market and a potential peak in U.S. shale oil production occurring earlier and at lower levels than previously expected [1][2] - Other major Wall Street banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, share similar forecasts of significant oversupply in the oil market leading to declining prices through 2026 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward, expecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2025 and $55 in 2026, while WTI is expected to average $56 and $51 respectively [2] - In a scenario of a typical U.S. economic recession and moderate OPEC production increases, Brent prices could drop to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026 [2] - If global GDP slows significantly and OPEC maintains moderate production increases, Brent prices could fall to $54 and $45 by the same dates [2] Group 3 - Analysis of President Trump's social media activity indicates a preference for oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel, which may influence market sentiment [3] - Concerns over potential increases in OPEC+ supply have contributed to a decline in Brent crude prices, which recently fell to around $64.5 per barrel [3] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised concerns about global energy demand, further impacting oil prices [5] Group 4 - The international oil market is currently in a sensitive phase, with mixed factors affecting supply and demand [5] - Potential cautious signals from OPEC+ regarding production increases could provide temporary support for oil prices [5] - Traders are awaiting further policy developments from the Trump administration and OPEC+ capacity signals to assess the supply-demand balance for the second half of the year [5]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 27 日 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 2.油世界：全球油菜籽产量恢复前景可能比此前市场评估小一些，这在加拿大，澳 大利亚，乌克兰三个主要出口国情况是真实的，更小的种植面积以及更低的单产使得总 体产量减少约 80-90 万吨； 3.外媒：巴西农业部门宣布启动为期 28 天的禽流感观察期，旨在向全球证明其家 禽养殖体系无疫，这或有利于保障未来豆粕出口渠道； 【外盘情况】 CBOT大豆指数上涨0.45%至1057.75美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数上涨0.33%至302.2 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.油 ...

Kpler分析师Firat Ergene直言不讳地指出了市场的残酷现实："目前几乎没有价格支撑。即便价格更低，也没人会购 买更多煤炭。" 当供应过剩遇到库存激增，全球动力煤市场正遭遇一场"完美风暴"！ 5月26日，全球动力煤价格跌至四年半以来的新低，且仅有2022年全球能源危机创下的峰值水平的四分之一。这一 断崖式下跌主要源于产量的持续增长和库存的激增。 印尼、澳大利亚、南非和哥伦比亚等煤炭出口国遭受的打击尤为严重。值得注意的是，分析师警告称更大跌幅或 许还在后头。 有分析认为，在全球去煤化浪潮与供需失衡的双重挤压下，动力煤正从昔日的"黑金"沦为烫手山芋，动力煤基准 价格的崩塌堪称市场教科书级别的逆转。 动力煤市场的戏剧性反转 据悉，2022年俄乌冲突引发的全球能源危机一度将煤炭价格送上"黄金宝座"，矿业公司和对冲基金从中赚取了丰 厚利润。 然而，正是这段"黄金时期"埋下了今天供应过剩的种子。持续的高价刺激了全球产能的疯狂扩张，如今，当供应 的洪流涌入市场，煤价的自由落体几乎不可避免。 据报道，作为全球最大的动力煤生产国和消费国，中国今年的国内产量创下历史新高，给全球煤炭市场带来双重 打击： 首先，创纪录的产 ...