1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being a prominent issue. The overall market is affected by factors such as production costs, inventory levels, and downstream demand [8]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate varies by source. Ore - based production (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) is currently at a loss, while the cost of the salt - lake end is relatively low, with sufficient production motivation [8]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is higher than the historical average, which has a negative impact on the market [8]. - The downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increasing by 3.75% and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 3.59% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with daily - on - daily increases of 0.84% and 1.03% respectively, and production at a loss. The cost of the salt - lake end is lower, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 9, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,100 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.10% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. Different types of inventory (smelter, downstream, and other) showed different trends [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a positive signal. The net short position of the main contract increased, showing a negative signal [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and upstream and downstream products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.22%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64% [13]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly production rate decreased by 1.59%, and the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an 8.34% increase from the previous month. The production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) also showed different trends [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production rate and output of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 5.55%, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased [16]. 3.3 Supply - Related Sections - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased slightly, and the inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends over time [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production rate and output of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The supply - demand balance showed different states in different months [28][34]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide was relatively large, and the supply - demand balance also changed over time [36][40]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related Sections - The production cost and profit of lithium compounds (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide) from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was at a loss [43][46]. - The import profit, purification profit, and carbonization profit of lithium carbonate also showed different trends over time [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related Sections - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was higher than the historical average, and the inventory of different sources and types also changed [50][51]. 3.6 Demand - Related Sections - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends. The monthly output and loading volume of power batteries increased, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changed [54][55]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also changed in different months [60][64]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials also changed over time [66][67]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production, and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends. The cost - profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [78][79].

Group 1 - Current soda ash prices are below the production costs of most companies and significantly discounted in the spot market, but the supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, leading to limited sustainability in price rebounds [1][3] - The soda ash market is currently characterized by oversupply, with production capacity remaining stable and a high operating rate of around 85% in June, despite some companies undergoing maintenance [1][2] - The float glass industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing weak demand and increasing losses, which may lead to a further decline in soda ash demand if no policy stimulus occurs [2][3] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the price of soda ash is between 950 to 970 yuan per ton, with delivery costs estimated at 1230 to 1250 yuan per ton, suggesting a potential for arbitrage if spot prices do not rise significantly [3] - The light soda ash demand remains weak, with downstream companies maintaining low operating rates and poor stocking intentions, indicating a lack of recovery in demand [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a notable decline in the photovoltaic glass market, further contributing to the pressure on soda ash demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, and there is no rating for inter - period investment [3] Core View - The international oil price and propane price continue to be weak, so the cost - side support for polyolefins is weak [2] - The supply has slightly increased due to the return of previously shut - down maintenance units and the successful commissioning of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP unit. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season, and future inventory unit maintenance will be intensive, which will relieve some of the pressure from new supply [2] - The downstream is in a seasonal off - season with limited demand boost. The agricultural film industry is at a low level of operation, and other terminal industries are also operating weakly. Rigid demand for restocking is expected to be weak [2] - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,261 yuan/ton (- 41), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,070 yuan/ton (- 33), the LL North China spot price is 7,240 yuan/ton (- 30), the LL East China spot price is 7,350 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP East China spot price is 7,160 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL North China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+ 11), the LL East China basis is 89 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the PP East China basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 358.8 yuan/ton (- 7.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.2 yuan/ton (- 7.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 268.5 yuan/ton (+ 156.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific price difference data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 58.3 yuan/ton (- 5.8), the PP import profit is - 314.6 yuan/ton (- 49.0), and the PP export profit is 22.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供强需弱 价格底部徘徊 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1189-1219 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 现货价格阴跌调整，尚未企稳，市场成交弱，下游拿货意向 不足，碱厂新订单接收缓慢。 【后市展望】 供给端：纯碱企业陆续有检修企业开始执行，产量及开工呈 现一定下降预期，但整体损失量相对前期下降。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 19 元/吨，周度涨幅 1.59%，报收 1194 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 上周全国纯碱现货市场价格普遍下跌。 供给方面产量、产能利用率有所回落，截止 2025 年 6 月 26 日，上周国内纯碱产量 71.67 万吨，环比下跌 3.80 万吨，跌幅 5.04%。其中，轻质碱产量 32.4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 主要逻辑：产能错配导致供强需弱，下行态势较难改变。 主要风险点：停减产/检修计划冲击，产业出清启动时间点。 4 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18462吨 环比增长1 84% ， . , | 高于历史同期平均水平 | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本 ...

晨报 成材 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 20 日 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 4.61 万吨至 212.18 万吨， 热卷产量上升 0.8 万吨至 325.45 万吨，五大材产量上升 9.66 万吨自 868.51 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 7.01 万吨至 551.07 万吨，热卷总库存 下降 5.24 万吨至 340.17 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on rallies for both finished products and raw materials [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate Transaction Data - From June 9th to June 15th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, with a 24% month - on - month increase and a 3.6% year - on - year decrease; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1823 million square meters, with a 17.8% month - on - month increase and a 5.4% year - on - year increase [3] Steel Mill Cost and Profit - On June 17th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3262 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton, an average profit loss of 129 yuan/ton, and a valley - electricity profit loss of 26 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation and Suggestion - The finished products oscillated and sorted at a low level yesterday, with downstream demand seasonally weakened and difficult to improve effectively in the short term, while high - start and high - output situations still exist, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [3] - The view on raw materials is also to try short - selling on rallies [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7.9万吨，环比有所增加2.60%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长20.59%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库 存为27.5万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为72800 吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为290元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为 66.28%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.23万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为568元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为633.38元/吨，再生铝开工 率为53.9%，环比持平，处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 成材 成材：基本面变化不大 钢价小幅反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 17 日 逻辑：国家统 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, the futures price is boosted by state purchasing, but the supply - demand imbalance of more supply and less demand will continue due to weight reduction of pigs for sale and stable consumption demand. In the long run, with profits in pig farming, there's little possibility of short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price is likely to be under pressure. The prospects of frozen pork and second - round fattening demand are not good, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will persist [2] - In the egg market, as schools are on holiday, school demand declines, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.28 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.58 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 500, up 280; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 800, up 300; in Sichuan, it was LH09 + 200, up 160 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on June 16: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.83, down 0.12 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.86, down 0.14 points. The average price of pork was 20.37 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; beef was 63.45 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; eggs were 7.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; white - striped chicken was 17.20 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Market Analysis - The futures price is supported by state purchasing, but the weight reduction of pigs for sale is just starting, and the supply is expected to increase. With stable consumption demand, the oversupply situation will continue. There are still profits in pig farming, so there's little short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price will likely be under pressure. The demand for frozen pork and second - round fattening won't increase significantly [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, a change of + 26.00 yuan (+ 0.73%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.49 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD07 - 1092, up 64; in Shandong, it was JD07 - 882, up 74; in Hebei, it was JD07 - 962, up 34 [3] - On June 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, down 0.23 days from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.19 days, down 0.33 days [3] Market Analysis - School demand declines as schools are on holiday, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]