Group 1: Methanol - High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The futures market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a phase of bearish factors materializing. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - conditions and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine a clear direction for single - sided trading. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [1] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 10, the South China spot price was - 22, the Lunan converted price was + 18, and the Northwest converted price was + 33. Other prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [1] Group 2: Polyethylene (Plastic) - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of 09 contract is around 0 in North China and + 120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. In June, the number of maintenance activities is decreasing month - on - month, and the domestic linear production is increasing. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The new production facilities in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on their commissioning [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on June 23rd. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 5, the East China LD price was - 50, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [11] Group 3: Polypropylene (PP) - The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is + 100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene prices are oscillating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. In June, the supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Shandong propylene price increased by 390, the East China PP price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 13 [11] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream start - up is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In summer, the northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, focus on the commissioning of new facilities and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are decent. In June, pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level but is continuously decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the northwest calcium carbide price increased by 25, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 25, and other prices remained unchanged [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

Group 1 - Argentina's unemployment rate for the first quarter is 7.9% [1] Group 2 - In May, Argentina reported a trade surplus of $608 million, which was below the expected surplus of $1.05 billion [2] - Exports in May totaled $7.095 billion, while imports were $6.488 billion [2]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：关税对出口和就业造成了压力。 ...

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, boosted by subsidies in home appliances and communications[1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year growth of 53.0%, while communication equipment grew by 33.0%, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[1] - Retail sales of essential goods and dining services grew by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year in May, a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9%, down by 0.9 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, marking the lowest since October 2024[2] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[2] - Housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing down to 6.2%[2] - The textile industry, significantly impacted by previous high tariffs, saw a notable decline of 2.3 percentage points compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%[2] - Export-oriented industries such as automotive and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[2] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a "two strong, two weak" scenario, with robust durable goods consumption and a slowdown in real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[2] - A potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market, along with an expected increase in consumer subsidies of 200 billion yuan to counteract potential export declines[2] - The central government's fiscal expansion is likely to be a key source of incremental policy support in the second half of the year[2]

泰国商务部长：五月出口仍然良好。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of special bond issuance in the first five months of 2025 is expected to stabilize the physical workload in infrastructure construction, supported by a positive trend in the construction PMI [1][2]. Group 1: Special Bond Issuance - In the first five months of 2025, the issuance of special bonds reached 1.6336 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, indicating a faster issuance pace [2]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds totaled 1.6291 trillion yuan, with a significant concentration in the first quarter [2]. - The net financing amount of urban investment bonds in the first five months was -224.8 billion yuan, showing a decline compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Construction Industry Performance - The construction PMI stood at 51.0%, indicating continued expansion despite a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the previous month [3]. - The civil engineering activity index rose to 62.3%, reflecting an acceleration in project construction across various regions [3]. - The new orders index for the construction industry increased to 43.3%, while the input price index rose to 48.0%, suggesting a slight improvement in market conditions [3]. Group 3: Export and Price Trends - Exports in the first five months of 2025 reached 1.48 trillion USD, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with May exports at 316.1 billion USD, up 4.8% [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with building material prices declining, which may help reduce costs in the construction sector [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the implications of the depreciation of the US dollar and its impact on global capital flows and economic dynamics, particularly focusing on the US economy and its relationship with non-US economies [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dollar Depreciation Certainty**: The trend of dollar depreciation is established due to the changing global capital flow patterns and the decoupling of the US economy from the global economy. This situation is exacerbated by the US's increasing debt levels and the inability to attract capital as before [1][2][3]. 2. **US Fiscal Policy**: The US government has expanded fiscal spending, including increasing transfer payments to residents by nearly 20%, to maintain economic resilience. This has helped stabilize consumer spending despite rising inflation pressures [4][5]. 3. **Inflation and Fed's Role**: The Federal Reserve's inability to control inflation has led to a collapse in its credibility, which in turn undermines the value of the dollar. The Fed's actions, including purchasing long-term bonds, may lead to persistent inflation [4][5]. 4. **Strong US Consumer Demand**: Despite challenges, US consumer demand remains robust, and trade deficits are expected to normalize over time. The depreciation of the dollar creates a favorable export environment for China [6][7]. 5. **Global Manufacturing Cycle**: The global manufacturing sector is entering a cyclical upswing, driven by improvements in supply-side conditions. Non-US economies are expected to perform better, with China's exports likely to exceed expectations [7][8]. 6. **Impact of De-globalization**: The breakdown of globalization allows emerging markets to have more autonomy in their monetary and fiscal policies, leading to enhanced domestic demand and positive growth for non-US economies [8][9]. 7. **US Re-industrialization**: The slow pace of re-industrialization in the US necessitates continued imports of capital goods, consumer goods, and intermediate goods, which is expected to benefit Chinese exports [9][10]. 8. **Chinese Market Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance in the Chinese market is improving, with rising asset prices driven by the appreciation of the yuan and favorable external demand conditions [11][12]. 9. **Core Asset and Financial Sector Outlook**: There is a positive outlook for core assets and the financial sector in China, particularly for insurance companies, as the yuan's appreciation benefits their operations [13][14]. 10. **Export Prospects and US Economic Policy Uncertainty**: Export prospects may exceed expectations, but there is a need to monitor uncertainties in US economic policy. A stable US economy, even without significant growth, can support good export performance [15]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the structural changes in global capital flows and the potential for non-US economies to thrive in a weaker dollar environment, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets and commodities [1][2][6][8]. - The discussions emphasize the importance of monitoring US economic policies and their implications for global trade dynamics, particularly for countries like China that are positioned to benefit from these changes [15].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.5%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.9%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.1% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on that day were Beauty Care (+1.1%), Banking (+0.5%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+0.3%), Transportation (+0.2%), and Media (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense and Military (-2.0%), Computer (-1.9%), Electronics (-1.7%), Communication (-1.4%), and Non-Bank Financials (-1.1%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,415.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.59 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Inflation and Economic Policy - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value and better than market expectations of -0.2%. The month-on-month growth was -0.2%, influenced mainly by falling energy prices [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth recorded -3.3%, slightly below market expectations of -3.2%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% due to falling prices of internationally priced bulk commodities [5] Trade Dynamics - In May, China's exports to the United States decreased by 33.6%, primarily due to the high average tariff levels maintained until mid-May when tariffs were officially lowered following negotiations [6] - The market outlook for trade with the U.S. remains pessimistic, but there is potential for a rebound in exports to the U.S. [6]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows a significant decline in cement usage, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonal high, but some sectors are declining, such as polyester chip production which has dropped to a low level[2][24] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and construction material demand below historical levels[3][31] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and aluminum are fluctuating, while gold prices have increased[4][39] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index nearing its September 2024 low[4][41] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 7% week-on-week decline in transaction area across 30 major cities, down 41% compared to 2023[5][59] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes are weakening, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -1%, -15%, and +6% respectively[5][61] Exports - High-frequency export data for the first week of June indicates a potential year-on-year decline of around -8%[6][67] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.55% and DR007 at 1.53% as of June 6[5][80] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 358.6 billion yuan in recent weeks[5][82]