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新能源及有色金属日报:宏观情绪好转,工业硅期货减仓上涨-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:17
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after continuous decline, due to improved macro - sentiment, previous short - position funds left the market for profit, leading to a reduction in positions and an upward movement in the futures market. Fundamentally, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, with the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, supply is expected to increase, and cost support has weakened. Consumption is weak, and there is a possibility of further production reduction, so the overall fundamentals are weak [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures price fluctuated widely on the day, and the spot market price remained stable with light trading. In May, production continued to decline on both the supply and demand sides. The actual production reduction situation remains to be observed, and the overall consumption has weakened [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2506 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of 225 yuan/ton (2.72%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 146,525 lots at the close, and on May 15, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,531 lots, a change of 37 lots from the previous day. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Xinjiang, and Sichuan continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon remained stable. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. After the tariff issue was alleviated, it was beneficial to the export of organic silicon end - products, and organic silicon consumption might improve [2]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises are advised to sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained wide - range fluctuations, opening at 38540 yuan/ton and closing at 38420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.43% from the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 44,692 lots (52,252 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 236,082 lots. - The spot price of polysilicon was weakly stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), N - type material was 37.00 - 42.00 yuan/kg (- 1.00 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg). - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.70 (a month - on - month change of - 1.90%), silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW (a month - on - month change of - 12.08%), weekly polysilicon production was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.46%), and silicon wafer production was 12.35GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.07%). - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - On the supply side, production reduction continued in May, with a slight month - on - month decline of about 0.2 million tons in polysilicon production. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafer enterprises decreased by about 3GW month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 40 lots (120 tons) [5][7][8]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, due to the short - term joint production reduction of production enterprises and the small number of warehouse receipts, but the weakening of consumption, the market will fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9].
螺纹钢:宏观情绪推动,商品走势普涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 02:02
Report Summary Key Points from the Fundamental Data - Futures data shows that RB2510 closed at 3,127 yuan/ton with a 38-yuan increase (1.23% up), and HC2510 closed at 3,267 yuan/ton with a 41-yuan increase (1.27% up). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,134,942 lots, and its open interest decreased by 39,651 lots to 2,111,525 lots. HC2510 had a trading volume of 801,521 lots, and its open interest decreased by 2,694 lots to 1,351,894 lots [1]. - In the spot market, prices of both rebar and hot-rolled coil increased in major cities. For example, Shanghai rebar rose from 3,220 to 3,250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil rose from 3,260 to 3,320 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding price differences, the basis of RB2510 decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton, while the basis of HC2510 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton. Other spreads such as RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2510 - HC2601 also changed [1]. Key Points from the Macro and Industry News - On May 8, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.08 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 9.52 tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 9.63 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 10.85 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 28.97 tons. Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 77.81 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 23.19 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 125.66 tons [2]. - On May 14, it was reported that China's new RMB loans from January - April were 10.06 trillion yuan, lower than the estimate of 10.47 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 269.54 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China's M2 money supply in April increased by 8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The increment of social financing scale from January - April was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3]. Key Points from the Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view according to the defined range [-2, 2] [3]. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are generally rising due to the push of macro - sentiment. However, there are mixed signals in the industry data, with production, inventory, and apparent demand showing different trends, and the macro - economic data also presents a complex picture [1][2][3]. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.
PVC:库存去化,开工率升,压力仍存
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 06:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that PVC futures have shown a slight increase, with a 1.07% rise to 4892 yuan/ton, while social inventory has decreased by 0.41% to 651,000 tons, maintaining a trend of inventory reduction [1][1][1] - The overall operating rate for PVC this week is reported at 80.3%, which is an increase of 1% week-on-week, with the calcium carbide method at 81.3% (up 2.3%) and the ethylene method at 77.8% (down 2.4%) [1][1][1] - Market prices for PVC in different regions have shown varying adjustments, with East China prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4610 to 4770 yuan/ton and ethylene method around 4850 to 5100 yuan/ton [1][1][1] Group 2 - Institutions express that despite the ongoing spring maintenance, the scale is less than the same period last year, and the recent operating rates are rebounding, but PVC pressure remains significant until demand improves [1][1][1] - The article highlights that the medium to long-term outlook for PVC remains weak due to low demand, limited exports, and high operating rates in the caustic soda sector, with inventory still high despite some reduction [1][1][1] - There is a focus on the potential impact of US tariffs, with expectations that short-term tariff easing may not significantly affect demand, and attention is drawn to upcoming US CPI and China's macro data for April [1][1][1]
石油沥青日报:宏观情绪好转,沥青盘面跟随原油走强-20250513
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 05:24
石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-13 宏观情绪好转,沥青盘面跟随原油走强 市场分析 1、5月12日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2506合约下午收盘价3481元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨53元/吨,涨幅 1.55%;持仓107567手,环比下降2504手,成交165731手,环比下跌28348手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3700—4086元/吨;山东,3430—3750元/吨;华南,3320—3460元/吨; 华东,3500—3570元/吨。 昨日山东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现上涨,其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。原油以及沥青期货整体 走势偏强,支撑沥青现货市场氛围,日盘收盘后中美首轮谈判发布联合声明,带动宏观情绪转暖,对沥青盘面存 在进一步提振。就沥青自身基本面而言,供需两弱格局延续,库存维持低位,市场存在支撑。但另一方面,沥青 终端需求增长幅度仍有限,或制约现货价格的上行动力。 策略 单边:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一 ...
黑色商品日报-20250513
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 05:20
黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 场预期,带动商品价格走强。锰矿方面,康密劳公布 2025 年 6 月对华加蓬块报报价 4.4 美元/吨度,环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.4 美元/吨度;联合矿业(CML)公布 2025 年 6 月对华报价出台,Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%澳块报 4.7 | | | | 美元/吨度,环比上月下跌 0.4 美元/吨度,锰矿成本支撑有限。综合来看,短期宏观情绪叠加市场消息刺 | | | | 激带动下,预计短期锰硅期价上方仍有一定空间,但幅度不看太高,后续持续关注宏观及减产情况。 | | | | 硅铁:周一,硅铁期价震荡走强,主力合约报收 5636 元/吨,环比上涨 1.55%,主力合约持仓环比增加 21649 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5550 元/吨,宁夏地区较前一日上涨 50 元/吨。昨日大宗商品多数走强, | | | | 黑色板块整体偏强,硅铁期价重心随之上移。宏观情绪刺激叠加主产区减产消息,带动硅铁价格上涨。昨 | | | 硅铁 | 日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明,谈判效果超出市场预期, ...
螺纹钢:宏观情绪提振,低位反弹,热轧卷板:宏观情绪提振,低位反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 02:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil have rebounded from low levels due to the boost of macro sentiment [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,082 yuan/ton and 3,220 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 46 yuan/ton (1.52%) and 48 yuan/ton (1.51%). The trading volumes were 2,373,248 hands and 849,309 hands, and the open interests were 2,180,461 hands and 1,384,049 hands, with decreases of 163,860 hands and 37,020 hands respectively [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in various regions showed an overall upward trend, with price increases in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and other places. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 60 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 138 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1] Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data**: In terms of production, rebar increased by 4.27 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.80 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 7.85 million tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 58.33 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 13.42 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 87.17 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 31.77 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 8.36 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 42.45 million tons [1][3] - **Sino-US Economic and Trade Talks**: On May 12, the joint statement of the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Geneva stated that the US promised to cancel a total of 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. Correspondingly, China cancelled a total of 91% of the counter-tariffs and suspended 24% of the counter-tariffs for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 1, indicating a neutral view [3]
商品日报(5月12日):集运指数强势涨停 沪金跌超2%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 11:07
新华财经北京5月12日电(郭洲洋、吴郑思)国内商品期货市场5月12日涨多跌少,其中集运欧线主力合 约收涨16.00%;苯乙烯主力合约涨超4%;BR橡胶、对二甲苯、铁矿石、PTA主力合约涨超3%;SC原 油、短纤、烧碱、高硫燃油、多晶硅、棉花、原木、NR、瓶片、天然橡胶、沪镍主力合约涨超2%。下 跌品种方面,沪金主力合约跌超2%。 宏观情绪改善商品大面积回暖 集运指数强势涨停 宏观情绪转暖为12日当天商品市场带来积极影响,国内主要商品大面积收高,尤其是集运指数(欧线) 期货收盘强势封板涨停,以16%的涨幅领涨商品市场。虽然上周五和本周一公布的现货运价指数均环比 小幅下跌,但周末贸易局势方面的积极消息带来的利多仍占据主导,这使得集运市场多头情绪高涨。与 此同时,有业内消息称,达飞轮船等航司6月初在线报价有小幅提振,也为日内集运欧线市场的活跃表 现提供助力。不过,分析机构提示,即期运价市场上,部分航司揽货压力下调降5月中下旬运价,加上 地缘局势也存在缓和可能,集运欧线基本面仍整体偏空,这或给运价反弹带来压力。 除航运市场对贸易局势最新变化反映积极以外,能源化工等商品也表现活跃。截至12日收盘,原油、燃 料油均录得超 ...
供强需弱库存回升,胶价维持低位震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250509
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 02:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and operate within a range, with low inventory providing some support [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and the daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with little price support [2] Aluminum - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in production capacity is 109.22 million tons/year, the total operating capacity is 87.02 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2] - Before the festival, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% week - on - week and 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate rising, other sectors decreased [2] - On May 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from Tuesday and an increase of 6,000 tons from April 30 [2] - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory performance during the May Day holiday was better than expected, and the inventory accumulation was controllable. The inventory continued to decline after the festival, indicating strong consumption resilience [2]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250425
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 03:09
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with the price center shifting downwards and showing a weak trend [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term strong sideways oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continuously shift down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum and Related Products - This week, some alumina plants completed their maintenance and resumed production, while new maintenance and production - cut news emerged. The national alumina operating capacity increased slightly week - on - week, reaching 83.62 million tons/year as of Thursday, a 740,000 - ton/year increase from the previous week. Alumina spot prices stopped falling, and there was a slight rebound in the northern region. Short - term prices are expected to move in a sideways pattern [3]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% compared with last week. Each sector showed a differentiated pattern: the primary alloy operating rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 55.4%, but is expected to decline slightly; the aluminum plate and strip maintained at 68.0% but提货 was suppressed by the rising aluminum price; the aluminum cable remained stable at 63.6%, with risks from photovoltaic policies; the aluminum profile showed a structural recovery to 59.5% [3]. - As of April 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 673,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fall to around 620,000 - 650,000 tons by the end of April [3]. - Macro - sentiment has slightly improved. In the later stage of the peak season, downstream inventory is being reduced. Aluminum prices are oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to event - induced fluctuations [4].