Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,750.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.35% [1] - The cost support for synthetic rubber is strengthening, driven by rising macroeconomic sentiment and sector optimism, leading to an upward movement in prices [1] - The main contract support level is identified at 11,300-11,400 CNY, with resistance at 11,900-12,000 CNY [1] Group 2 - Recent price resistance for raw material butadiene is evident, leading to weakened cost support for styrene-butadiene rubber, while domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of several production facilities [2] - The overall production capacity utilization rate for tire manufacturers is recovering, with production levels stabilizing and a slight increase in orders expected in mid to late July [2] - The BR2509 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,500-12,000 CNY in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macroeconomic and news factors boost expectations, but the real - world fundamentals limit price elasticity. The potential policy on the nickel ore HPM formula may affect costs, while the support from the ore end is weakening, and the supply expectation restricts the upside space [4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although the negative feedback has affected supply, the macro - boost and cost factors will limit the deep decline [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The industry is in a state of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term demand from downstream has increased, and the market has certain anti - decline ability [30][31][34]. - Polysilicon: It is a policy - driven market. It is safer to go long on dips. The policy expectation of "anti - involution" drives the price up, but the transmission of price increases to the terminal is not smooth [30][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses in August. The supply and demand situation is affected by regional mining rights policies [63][64][66]. - Palm Oil: With no new effective negative factors in the fundamentals and the boost of macro - sentiment, the market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year [87]. - Soybean Oil: Although the expectation of Sino - US trade easing has improved the weak reality, its fundamentals are still not as strong as palm oil, and it follows the upward trend of the oil and fat sector [87]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: Macro and news improve risk preference, but the support from the ore end weakens, and the supply from the smelting end restricts the upside [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - expectations boost the market, but the real - world supply - demand is weak. The cost factor limits the deep decline of nickel - iron prices [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - Nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased [6]. - Stainless Steel: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. - **Market News** - Multiple events such as production resumptions, suspensions, and policy - related news in the nickel and stainless - steel industries have been reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial Silicon: The futures and spot prices both increased [30]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rose significantly, and the spot price also increased [30]. - **Supply and Demand** - Industrial Silicon: Supply increased slightly, and the industry inventory decreased. The short - term demand from downstream increased [31]. - Polysilicon: The short - term supply increased, and the upstream inventory decreased. The terminal demand weakened, and the price transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - **Market Views** - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. It is recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - Polysilicon: It is a policy - driven market. It is safer to go long on dips [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate both increased, and the basis and contract spreads changed [63]. - **Supply and Demand** - Supply: There are policy issues in the lithium resource mining rights in Jiangxi and Qinghai, but the short - term output continues to increase [64]. - Demand: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slows down, and the new energy storage installation scale decreases [65]. - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate increases, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreases [65]. - **Market Views** - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. Pay attention to the renewal of mining licenses in August [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends** - Palm Oil: The 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [87]. - Soybean Oil: The 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [87]. - **Market Logic** - Palm Oil: After the negative impact of the MPOB report was digested, the market started to trade the de - stocking market, and was boosted by macro - sentiment [87]. - Soybean Oil: The expectation of Sino - US trade easing improved the weak reality, but the fundamentals are not as strong as palm oil [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View - The macro - sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and the black sector has slightly declined. The macro - data in June was decent, weakening the expectation of strong stimulus policies. The statement of the Central Urban Conference did not exceed expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of sentiment. The industrial contradictions are not significant. The rally in the futures market has stimulated the mid - and downstream sectors to replenish stocks, driving up the spot prices. The fundamentals have changed little, and the macro - trend dominates the off - season prices, with the market expected to oscillate at a high level [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased as expected. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and the iron - making volume decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the congestion at some ports increased, resulting in a slight reduction in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures prices are oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - Some previously - shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground issues, and resources in some regions are still tight, with the overall supply slowly recovering. At the import end, the China - Mongolia border port has been closed and is expected to resume customs clearance on Wednesday, during which the inventory in the port supervision area continued to decline. Coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the price - hike. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. The coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon, with the short - term futures market expected to oscillate [3] Alloy - Recently, the manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has increased slightly. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to drop significantly, and the support for ore prices is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' profitability has improved, driving an increase in production resumption, and the daily output of ferromanganese silicon has increased for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the output of finished steel products has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand for ferromanganese silicon is still resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the regional profits have continued to recover. On the supply side, the pace of manufacturers' production resumption has been slow, but there is still room for an increase in supply. On the demand side, the steel output has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy [3] Glass - In the off - season, the demand has declined, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although the sales at the beginning of the week were good due to downstream restocking, the sustainability is questionable. After the futures price rally, speculative demand may be stimulated. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but market sentiment has a significant impact. Recently, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase, the mid - and downstream sectors have continued to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. The futures market is expected to oscillate [6] Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged. There are rumors in the market about anti - cut - throat competition in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has slightly declined, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with a weak demand outlook. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Market sentiment affects the futures market, and the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6] Specific Varieties Steel - The macro - data shows that the overall economy is still strong. After the Central Urban Work Conference, the expectation of policy stimulus has cooled down. The crude steel output in the first 6 months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the pressure for subsequent production cuts is limited. The futures market is oscillating at a high level. The supply and demand of both rebar and hot - rolled coils have decreased, and the inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level in history. The downstream maintains a normal purchasing rhythm. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season terminal demand [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotations fluctuated within 4 yuan/ton, and port transactions increased. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased as expected. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and the iron - making volume decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the congestion at some ports increased, resulting in a slight reduction in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures prices are oscillating strongly. The demand is at a high level, and there is limited downward - driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall, but the upside is also limited, with the price mainly oscillating [8][9] Scrap Steel - The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The apparent demand and output of rebar decreased slightly, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly on a daily basis but is still low year - on - year, with resources slightly tight. On the demand side, after the increase in steel prices, the profits of electric - arc furnaces in some regions have recovered, and the operating hours have increased, leading to a slight increase in the daily consumption of electric - arc furnaces. The iron - making volume of blast furnaces has decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has decreased. The inventory in steel mills has decreased slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and the spot prices have followed the upward trend of the black sector due to macro - sentiment [9] Coke - In the futures market, coke prices oscillated. On the supply side, most coke enterprises maintained normal production, while a few with profit pressure reduced production, and the coke output decreased slightly. Coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the price - hike. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. The coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][12][13] Coking Coal - In the futures market, coking coal prices first declined and then recovered, showing an overall oscillating trend. On the supply side, some previously - shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and the overall supply has not returned to the previous high level. At the import end, the China - Mongolia border port has been closed and is expected to resume customs clearance on Wednesday, during which the inventory in the port supervision area continued to decline. On the demand side, the coke output decreased slightly, but there is still a rigid demand for coking coal, and downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, with the mine inventory continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to mine production resumption and Mongolian coal imports. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] Glass - The average national price of glass increased slightly. The macro - sentiment has cooled down. In the off - season, the demand has declined, and the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, with the inventory days of raw glass increasing, indicating mainly speculative purchases by the downstream, and the real demand has not improved significantly. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but market sentiment has a significant impact. Recently, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase, the mid - and downstream sectors have continued to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. The futures market is expected to oscillate. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policies exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14][15] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the long - term pressure still exists, with high - level production and supply pressure. Today, the output of Yuanxing decreased, and some soda ash plants are under maintenance, resulting in an overall decrease in output. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to increase. There are rumors in the market about anti - cut - throat competition in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has slightly declined, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with a weak demand outlook. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Market sentiment affects the futures market, and the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [14][16] Ferromanganese Silicon - The futures prices of ferromanganese silicon oscillated. The supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is limited, and the prices are stable. The first price increase of coke has been implemented, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese silicon. Recently, the manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to drop significantly, with weak support for ore prices. On the supply side, manufacturers' profitability has improved, driving an increase in production resumption, and the daily output of ferromanganese silicon has increased for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the output of finished steel products has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand for ferromanganese silicon is still resilient. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. In the short term, the futures prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be looser, and it will be more difficult to reduce inventory, with pressure on prices [16] Ferrosilicon - The futures prices of ferrosilicon oscillated. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the spot market has remained stable. The price of semi - coke decreased this week, weakening the cost support for ferrosilicon and recovering the regional profits. On the supply side, the pace of manufacturers' production resumption has been slow, and attention should be paid to the future increase in production. On the demand side, the steel output has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The supply of magnesium ingots is temporarily tight, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products is low, and there is resistance to price increases. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy. In the short term, the futures prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long term, the market supply gap will narrow, making it more difficult to reduce inventory, with pressure on prices [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased for the second consecutive week, similar to the trend reflected in API data. However, U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories remain at low levels, and the destocking trend has strengthened market expectations of a demand recovery. The good performance of the refined oil market and the support of crack spreads will encourage U.S. refineries to maintain high operating rates, and crude oil processing demand is expected to remain stable [3][5]. - The current crude oil market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include geopolitical risks and seasonal demand support, while bearish factors mainly include OPEC+ production increases and weak macro sentiment. OPEC+ production increases will have a medium - to long - term impact on the crude oil market. The current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere has a limited bullish cycle, and the market may anticipate the peak - season inflection point in advance. The extension of U.S. tariff deadlines is a short - term emotional driver. Geopolitical risks are a major potential positive factor, but their impact on oil prices is expected to weaken after June. Overall, in the short term, oil prices are supported, and the market is more sensitive to bullish factors, but in the medium to long term, they are constrained by supply increases and weakening demand. The strategy is to view the crude oil market as volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Dynamics Geopolitical - On July 9, local time, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said during a visit to Slovakia that if Israel and Hamas reach a temporary cease - fire agreement, Israel is willing to discuss a permanent cease - fire in Gaza. Cohen emphasized that Hamas still holds 50 Israeli hostages and that the war could end if Hamas releases all hostages and lays down its arms. He also denied that Israel was delaying the war and stressed the need to continue pressuring Hamas [4]. Macro - On July 9, local time, U.S. President Trump issued 8 tariff policy statements on his social media platform "Truth Social", targeting 8 countries including Brazil, the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil, 30% on Libya, Iraq, Algeria, and Sri Lanka, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 20% on the Philippines, effective August 1. Trump has sent tariff letters to 22 countries [4]. - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos interpreted that the Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that officials were divided into three camps: the mainstream group supports rate cuts this year but rules out a July cut; the second group advocates keeping the current interest rate level unchanged; the third group, a "minority", including possibly Fed governors Waller and Bowman, wants an immediate rate cut at the next meeting. The statement that "several participants said the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be much higher than the neutral level" implies that even if the Fed restarts rate cuts, the scope will be limited unless the economy slows significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate policies [5]. Fundamental - EIA data shows that as of the week ending July 4, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, in line with the lower limit of the 5 - year average. Last week, U.S. crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, and exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day. Although the refinery operating rate decreased by 0.2% and crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day, the current processing volume is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, indicating good overall demand. In the refined oil market, U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.658 million barrels and diesel inventories decreased by 825,000 barrels last week. Low inventory levels and the destocking trend have strengthened market expectations of a demand recovery [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, PP, BR rubber, PTA, PG, log [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, treasury bond, silver, steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon), non - ferrous metals (except those mentioned above), agricultural products (cotton, corn, soybean meal, pulp, pig), energy - chemical products (except those mentioned above) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and varieties show different trends due to these factors. For example, the strong US non - farm payrolls data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which in turn impacts the prices of metals and other commodities. Geopolitical situations like the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ production decisions also play crucial roles in the energy market [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking slightly, and domestic and foreign positive factors are limited. There is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: The strong June non - farm payrolls data suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, which may put downward pressure on the gold price. However, uncertainties in tariff policies and tax - reform bills support the gold price [1] - **Silver**: With tariff uncertainties remaining, the silver price is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has cooled down. There is a risk of copper price correction [1] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and high prices suppressing downstream demand lead to a risk of aluminum price decline [1] - **Alumina**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the alumina price may run weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeding expectations and continuous zinc inventory accumulation lead to a risk of zinc price decline [1] - **Nickel**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The slight downward adjustment of the Indonesian nickel - ore premium makes the nickel price rebound weak. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After the "anti - involution" in China boosts sentiment, pay attention to tariff progress. Raw material prices are weakening, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production - cut news boosts confidence. The sustainability of the stainless - steel's oscillating rebound remains to be observed [1] - **Tin**: Under the "anti - involution", the glass and photovoltaic industries have production - cut expectations, and the new demand for tin is damaged. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and there is a risk of tin price decline under weak macro - sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform in the market, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no production cut on the supply side. Downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Individual regional steel mills have short - term production - cut behaviors. Temporarily wait and see for digestion [1] - **Iron Ore**: Steel - mill production - cut behaviors suppress the upward space, but short - term high demand provides support below [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production increases slightly, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1] - **Coking Coal**: The high - level meeting mentioned "anti - involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the 2015 supply - side reform. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading, short positions on the futures market should be temporarily avoided. Industrial customers should grasp the opportunity of premium to establish cash - and - carry positions [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream products, but the inventory pressure is not large. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to run weakly in the later period, it may affect Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio through the sugar - alcohol price ratio, resulting in higher - than - expected sugar production [1] - **Corn**: Before the new grain is on the market, the supply of old - crop grain is tightening, and the spot price is expected to be firm. The upward pressure on the futures price comes from wheat substitution and policy - based grain releases. The C2509 contract may mainly oscillate. Pay attention to the wheat - corn price difference and subsequent policy - based grain releases [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Under the domestic inventory - accumulation pressure, the basis is under pressure. There is an expectation of a tightening supply - demand balance sheet for US soybeans. In the short term, pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the US soybean price is expected to rise, the premium to fall, and the overall decline space of the futures price is limited [1] - **Pulp**: The overseas pulp price quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, and domestic demand is weak. Currently, the valuation is low, and there are also macro - positive factors [1] - **Pig**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The expectation of sufficient inventory in the futures market is obvious, and the futures price has a large discount to the spot price. In the short term, the spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Asphalt**: It is affected by cost - side drag, the possible increase in consumption - tax rebates in Shandong, and slow demand recovery [1] - **PP**: Downstream demand shows a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and inventory has increased slightly [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, the high basis persists, and the futures price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and synthetic - rubber inventory reduction progress [1] - **PTA**: The crude - oil market has fallen sharply, and the chemical industry has followed the decline. The downstream polyester load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle - chip and staple - fiber are about to enter the maintenance period. The PTA spot supply is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume has increased, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the crude - oil price down. The later arrival volume is large. The concentrated procurement due to the improvement of polyester sales has a certain impact on the market, and it is expected that ethane will reach the expected level smoothly [1] - **Staple Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is small. Under the high - basis situation, the cost is closely followed, and short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Market speculative demand has weakened, the benzene - ethylene plant load has recovered, the holding of benzene - ethylene is concentrated, and the benzene - ethylene basis has weakened significantly [1] - **PVC**: The "anti - involution" policy is positive for the spot market. Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure is rising. The futures price oscillates strongly [1] - **PG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both been lowered. OPEC has increased production more than expected. It is the seasonal off - season for LPG combustion and chemical demand, and the spot price decline is slow, so there is still room for the PG price to fall [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - shaped peak in July and August, with the peak time advancing. There will be sufficient shipping capacity deployment in the following weeks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Zinc ore supply remains at a high level, and TC continues to rise. The expectation of zinc ingot production increase is high. However, some zinc smelters are shifting to the production of zinc alloy ingots, and part of the zinc ingots are converted into in-transit inventory in the form of direct delivery to downstream, which cannot be well reflected in the accumulation of social inventory. Recently, the commodity atmosphere is favorable, and the long sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is strong. The rapid upward movement of the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure also boosts the zinc price [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In June, the lead price continued to rise. The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 3.4% at 17,205 yuan/ton, with the total open interest in unilateral trading decreasing by 0.83 thousand lots. The LME Lead 3M contract closed up 3.79% at $2,041.5/ton. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 110 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -25 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 50 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: This week, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons. The operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including those on US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 32.5 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.2% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to May, the total zinc ore output was 141.12 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.5%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 49.15 million dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 85.3% and a month - on - month change of -0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 220.38 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 52.7% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 54.62 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 25.7% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 240.29 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6%. As of the end of June, the port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons [27]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the end of June, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton [29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In May 2025, the zinc ingot output was 54.94 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.1%. From January to May, the total zinc ingot output was 265.49 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.7%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 2.53 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -45.3% and a month - on - month change of -10.4%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 15.80 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -20.5%. In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 57.47 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -1.3% and a month - on - month change of -1.5%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 281.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: As of the end of June, the operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In May 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 58.28 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of -8.3%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 279.75 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.2% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a shortage of -0.81 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.53 million tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In March 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.98 million tons. From January to March, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 6.81 million tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai zinc increased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc rose, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]