1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international oil prices have strongly risen, boosting the polyolefin market from the cost side. - Polyethylene domestic supply remains high, and losses in oil - based and naphtha - based production routes have intensified this week. - The polypropylene industry is affected by more planned maintenance in March, rising raw material prices, and slow resumption of PDH and other devices. - Downstream factory operating rates are at a seasonal low. - Although the current fundamentals are under pressure, there are still expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream operating rates [1]. Methanol Industry - The conflict in the Middle East has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iranian methanol exports and increasing geopolitical risk premiums. - Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, but imports are affected by the conflict, and the instability of devices has increased. The arrival volume in March will decline significantly. - Demand is weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and postponed start - up of new MTO devices. - Port inventories are at a medium - to - high historical level, with expectations of destocking. Pay attention to the actual progress of the conflict and the port destocking rhythm [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fluctuated weakly on the 2nd, and spot prices remained stable overall. The supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum demand is improving. The overall situation of domestic caustic soda supply and demand is weak, and the short - term market may be in a volatile adjustment [7]. - PVC futures fluctuated higher on the 2nd, and spot prices were weakly volatile. The current supply - demand situation of PVC has not improved, and the price is affected by cost concerns. The short - term upward sentiment of the PVC market is expected to continue, but the increase is uncertain [7]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated down on the 2nd. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and inventory accumulation during the holiday has put pressure on prices. - Agricultural demand is gradually advancing, while industrial demand is slowly recovering. The price may be in a high - level stalemate in the short term. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1800 - 1900. Attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation [8]. LPG Industry - LPG prices have generally risen. The refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory have increased. - The operating rate of upstream main refineries remains unchanged, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased slightly [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - Overseas main production areas are transitioning to reduced production and suspension of tapping, with a shrinking total supply and rising raw material prices. - Downstream tire enterprises are gradually resuming work, and demand is expected to be boosted. - Inventories in Qingdao are accumulating. Long positions established earlier can be held, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation [13]. Crude Oil Industry - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in the risk premium of crude oil. - If the risk spreads or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices will continue to rise significantly. If the conflict eases, there is a risk of a large - scale return of the geopolitical premium. Geopolitical conflicts usually have a pulsed impact on oil prices, and long positions should be held with caution [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene devices are operating stably, and the profit of the downstream styrene industry has been significantly repaired. However, due to import pressure and high port inventories, the price of pure benzene is mainly driven by oil prices and downstream styrene. - The profit of the styrene industry is good, and the supply in March is expected to increase slightly. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand situation is expected to show a slight destocking. The price is expected to be boosted by oil prices in the short term [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply is in high - level oscillation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered around 1200. - For glass, the supply is at a low level, the demand is restricted, and the inventory is seasonally accumulating. The price may be short - sold around 1075, and attention should be paid to post - holiday macro - policies and downstream market conditions [18]. Polyester Industry - PX: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March, and the price is supported by cost and demand. The short - term trend is strong, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. - PTA: The load has increased after the holiday, but the processing margin has been compressed. The short - term drive is limited, and the price follows the cost. - MEG: The supply will decline in March, and the demand from the polyester industry will recover seasonally. There is an expectation of slight destocking. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. - Bottle - chip: The supply will increase in March, the demand is expected to be weak, and the processing margin may decline [19]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP have generally risen, with price increases ranging from 5.85% to 7.06%. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories have increased, with the increase in enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP ranging from 15.79% to 89.14%. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rates have decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates have decreased significantly. PP device operating rates have decreased slightly, while powder operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates have increased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol have risen, with the increase in MA2605 closing price reaching 8.54%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have all increased, with the increase in enterprise inventory reaching 57.30%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises has decreased slightly, while the operating rate of overseas enterprises has increased significantly. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remains unchanged, and the operating rates of some downstream industries such as formaldehyde have increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Caustic soda spot prices are stable, and PVC futures prices have fluctuated higher. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda factory inventories have increased, and PVC social inventories have decreased slightly. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry has increased slightly, and the total operating rate of PVC has remained unchanged [7]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Futures prices have fluctuated down, and most regional factory offers have been slightly adjusted. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory and port inventories have increased, and the number of production enterprise orders has decreased. - **Operating Rates**: The daily and weekly production of urea has increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises has increased slightly [8]. LPG Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of LPG have risen, with the increase in PG2604 reaching 6.09%. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory have increased. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries remains unchanged, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased slightly [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber have risen slightly, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has increased by 0.63%. - **Inventory**: Qingdao's bonded and general - trade inventories of natural rubber have continued to accumulate. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires have increased significantly [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices have risen significantly, with increases of 6.68% and 6.28% respectively. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil have changed significantly [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen, with the increase in styrene spot price reaching 5.6%. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased slightly, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased by 11.1%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed slightly [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures have decreased slightly. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories have increased significantly. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the soda ash industry has increased slightly, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has increased [18]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products have generally risen. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory has increased by 2.0%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries have all increased to varying degrees [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, providing strong cost support for polyolefins and causing a sharp rise in olefin prices. The PE market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but short - term geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices. For PP, the impact on overseas supply is small, and the cost - push is the main factor. The deepening loss of PDH profit may lead to a continuation of the PDH maintenance peak, and the expected reduction in supply provides support for PP prices. Attention should be paid to the actual demand after the resumption of work in the PE mulch film peak season and the follow - up of downstream demand for PP [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6991 yuan/ton (+394), and that of the PP main contract is 6998 yuan/ton (+387). LL North China spot is 6650 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (+250), and PP East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (+70). LL North China basis is - 341 yuan/ton (-194), LL East China basis is - 191 yuan/ton (-134), and PP East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-317) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 554.7 yuan/ton (-260.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 704.7 yuan/ton (-260.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 650.4 yuan/ton (-124.6) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 256.6 yuan/ton (-136.6), PP import profit is - 455.5 yuan/ton (-37.3), and PP export profit is - 59.5 US dollars/ton (+4.8) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - **PE**: The Iran situation directly impacts China's PE imports from Iran. In 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. It is mainly non - standard products HD and LD, with LL accounting for 11.38%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices. Currently, PE is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited demand and high inventory [3]. - **PP**: The Iran situation has little impact on overseas PP supply. The cost - push is the main factor. The deepening loss of PDH profit may lead to a continuation of the PDH maintenance peak, and the expected reduction in supply provides support for PP prices. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand [4]. III. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The industrial silicon market in March 2026 will be in the process of re - balancing supply and demand. The price trend will depend on the relative speed of the resumption of production and the recovery of demand. The upper price is suppressed by the slow inventory consumption, and the lower price is supported by the decline in production and cost. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - In February 2026, the main 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures showed a volatile downward trend. The monthly opening price was 8,880 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the monthly closing price was 8,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton from the closing price in January [2]. - The industrial silicon spot market in February 2026 showed a downward trend. On February 26, the average price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. 3.2. Main Influencing Factors - **Supply - demand imbalance**: SMM predicted that due to the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang and the decline in production in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other regions, the domestic industrial silicon production in February 2026 was expected to decrease by more than 27% month - on - month. The downstream industries all had varying degrees of demand reduction, especially during the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises' operating rates were generally low and the purchasing willingness was not strong [3][4]. - **Cost and price relationship**: The current cost range of industrial silicon is about 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the futures price. However, the spot market price is in a dilemma between demand suppression and cost support, resulting in a dull reaction to the futures decline [4]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of industrial silicon before the festival was 562,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the inventory in February will be in a tight balance or slightly de - stocked state, which provides certain support for the price [4]. - **Market sentiment and expectations**: The market has a bearish expectation for the long - term supply and demand. Some funds are short - allocated based on the expectation of the resumption of production in northwest factories, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, especially around the Spring Festival, and the light trading intensifies price fluctuations [4]. 3.3. Short - term Outlook - **Upstream resumption of production**: The resumption of production in major producing areas such as Xinjiang will be a key factor affecting market supply. If the resumption progress is faster than expected, it will bring obvious supply increase and put pressure on market prices [5]. - **Downstream demand recovery**: After the Spring Festival, the improvement of downstream demand will directly affect the price trend of industrial silicon. The operating rates and purchasing intentions of major downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon are worthy of attention [6]. - **Cost changes and price transmission**: The production cost of industrial silicon is in the range of 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the current price. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices, energy costs, and the price transmission effect of costs [6]. - **Inventory change trend**: Although the inventory in February is expected to be in a tight balance or slightly de - stocked state, the overall inventory level is still relatively high. The inventory change trend in March will be the focus of the market [6]. - **Macroeconomic and policy factors**: The macro - economic environment and relevant industrial policies will also affect the industrial silicon market. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 was 317 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, which is a long - term benefit for the photovoltaic industry chain, but the implementation of policies and the actual demand release rhythm need to be concerned in the short term [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly Strategy Report, March 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the tightening of nickel ore quotas and the reality and expectation of a shortage in nickel ore supply, the premium of nickel ore has gradually strengthened to $35 - $40 per wet ton, and the price of nickel iron has also strengthened, leading to an upward shift in the support for the pyrometallurgical process of nickel prices. After the holiday, it enters the traditional peak season, and the demand has improved month - on - month. Stainless steel experiences seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, with relatively firm cost support. In the new energy sector, according to third - party data, the production schedule of ternary materials in March has also increased. Fundamentally, cost is the core support. Currently, the inventory pressure of primary nickel is still high based on weekly data. Opportunities for light - position trial long positions near the cost line can still be continuously monitored, along with the inventory situation of primary nickel. If the subsequent visible inventory can be significantly depleted, it may have a further positive feedback on prices. Additionally, overseas macro risks need to be vigilant [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In February, nickel prices fluctuated widely. The monthly decline of SHFE nickel was 0.7%, and the decline of LME nickel was 2.2% [6]. 3.2 Inventory - During the week, LME inventory increased by 270 tons to 287,976 tons; SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 27 tons to 53,131 tons, social inventory increased by 2,036 tons to 76,538 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained at 2,200 tons [6][16]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The premium of Indonesian nickel ore increased by $4.5 per ton to $37 per wet ton. The premium of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines increased by $1 per ton to $8.0 per wet ton [4][6][22]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - In February, the estimated production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 5% month - on - month to 35,800 tons [6]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The mainstream market quotes are concentrated at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch), and some scattered orders are quoted as high as 1,130 - 1,150 yuan per nickel [4][6][25]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - The discount decreased slightly month - on - month, the spot price weakened, and trading activity declined [4][6]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 New Energy - The weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 664 tons to 15,617 tons, and the inventory decreased by 533 tons to 17,234 tons. The weekly production increased by 11.6% to 26 GWh, among which the production of lithium - iron batteries increased by 11.1% to 20 GWh, and the production of ternary batteries increased by 13.2% to 6 GWh. The Passenger Car Association predicts that after the holiday, the price - cut promotion ability of new - energy vehicle manufacturers will decline. The weak price elasticity will make consumers more cautious, and it may suppress the normal release of car - buying demand in the short term. However, anti - involution in prices is a long - term benefit, which helps to improve the wait - and - see sentiment in car - buying and guide the healthy development of industrial consumption [4][6][46]. 3.4.2 Stainless Steel - This month, the overall price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the price strengthened again in the past week. The total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses of the national mainstream market was 1.173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.57%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series increased by 80,000 tons to 729,000 tons. According to Mysteel, the crude steel production schedule in March is 3.6335 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.69% and a year - on - year increase of 3.46%. Among them, the 200 series is 1.0771 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.18% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63%; the 300 series is 1.8948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%; the 400 series is 661,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.02% and a year - on - year increase of 2.51%. Raw materials are stronger than finished products, and the spot profit has weakened slightly [4][6][57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - Not provided in detail in the content 3.6 Options - Charts related to historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume of SHFE nickel options are presented [90][91][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in February is expected to be 390,000 tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The demand for molten iron is at a relatively high level, but the output of rebar has not increased significantly. The inventory of silicomanganese is at an absolute high level, while the inventory of ferrosilicon is at a neutral level. The import of manganese ore increased in 2025, and the South African government plans to levy a 15% ecological export tax on specific resource products including manganese ore from July 1, 2026. The industry is mostly in a state of loss, and the electricity price in Inner Mongolia has been raised. The valuation of both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is at a historical low, with strong bottom support. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. In terms of spreads, if the mine - end event continues to ferment, the cost - end has a greater impact on price elasticity, so the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silicomanganese and short on ferrosilicon can be considered [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Silicomanganese: The output in January 2026 was 854,000 tons, and the expected output in February is about 770,000 tons [9] - Ferrosilicon: The output in January was 437,000 tons, and the expected output in February is about 390,000 tons [55] Demand - Silicomanganese: The iron - water output in February remained above 2.27 million tons, but the rebar output did not increase significantly and remained at a low level in the same period. The 2 - month silicon - manganese tender of the iconic steel mill has not been priced [3][15] - Ferrosilicon: The 2 - month silicon - iron tender of the iconic steel mill was finally priced at 5,760 yuan/ton, with a purchase quantity of 2,150 tons, a decrease of 1,163 tons compared with January. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon export volume was 400,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.82% [60][63] Inventory - Silicomanganese: The enterprise inventory is 394,800 tons, maintaining an absolute high level in the same period [3] - Ferrosilicon: The inventory is 71,500 tons, maintaining a neutral level in the same period [3] Manganese Ore Import - In 2025, China's cumulative manganese ore import volume increased by 12.2% year - on - year. Among them, the cumulative import volume of South African manganese ore increased by 9.4% year - on - year. The South African government will levy a 15% ecological export tax on specific resource products including manganese ore from July 1, 2026 [3][30] Cost and Profit - Silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia: The spot cost is about 5,870 yuan/ton, and the industry is mostly in a state of loss. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has been raised by 2 cents, and the current daily comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is about 0.41 yuan/kWh [3] - Ferrosilicon in Ningxia: The cost is about 5,320 yuan/ton, and the industry is mostly in a state of loss [3] Market Quotes - Mainstream manganese mine quotes: The quotes of Comilog Gabon lumps, South32 high - manganese, South32 semi - carbonate, UMK semi - carbonate, etc. have shown an upward trend [27] - Port variety spreads: Not detailed in the report - Shipping data: Not detailed in the report - Port inventory: The inventory of Tianjin Port shows different trends for different varieties. For example, the inventory of Australian oxide ore has decreased, while the inventory of South African medium - low - grade ore has increased [40] - Manufacturer's manganese ore inventory: Not detailed in the report - Other costs: Not detailed in the report - Basis analysis: Not detailed in the report - Month - spread analysis: Not detailed in the report - Double - silicon spread: Not detailed in the report - Futures positions: Not detailed in the report - Double - silicon TOP20 seat net long positions: Not detailed in the report

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, in March, it is advisable to go long on dips with a light position in the short - term, and be cautious about changes in the ore - end logic in the medium - to - long - term. For stainless steel, the main contradiction lies in the raw material end, and it is advisable to go long on dips with a light position within the range in March [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should focus on the upstream resumption of production rhythm, and it is recommended to find buying points at low valuations. Polysilicon should focus on the spot price changes, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton next week [34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand situation is strong, and the bottom is clearly supported. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 150,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [64][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The resonance of macro, energy, and demand - side rush to export has come to an end. Short - term price increases need the realization of production - end drivers. Palm oil and soybean oil should be traded within the range for the time being [91][95]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Soybean meal is supported by the cost side, and soybean No.1 is affected by policy sentiment and other factors [106][112]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation and may be driven by rising crude oil. Domestically, it is mainly in a range - bound arrangement [128][151]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to the spot demand and new crop planting in March - April [152][168]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is in a weak operation and is in the process of finding the bottom. For the futures market, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment rebounds [171][173]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: The speculative attribute of nickel ore end dominates the nickel market, and the cost support center of stainless steel has shifted upward [4][5]. - **Inventory**: On February 27, the social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 3,616 tons to 76,619 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 888 tons to 287,976 tons. The total inventory of the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain increased by 9% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons [6][7]. - **Market News**: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, and some nickel mines in other regions plan to resume operations [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon's disk first fell and then rose, and the spot price decreased. Polysilicon's disk was in a weak shock, and the spot price might loosen [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply may increase in mid - March, and the demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply decreased, and the demand is expected to decline [30][31][33]. - **Future Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the upstream resumption of production, and polysilicon should focus on the spot price [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate increased, and the basis strengthened [61]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is affected by factory maintenance and export restrictions, and the demand is relatively strong in the short - term. The inventory continued to decline [62][63]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is strong, but the potential negative feedback risk of demand needs to be tracked. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 150,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil fell back from the previous high, and soybean oil rose [90]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil's fundamental improvement is slow, and it is advisable to trade within the range. Soybean oil is also traded within the range due to the lack of main contradictions [91][94]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Situation**: The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybean No.1 rose. The net sales of US soybeans decreased, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was slow [106][107]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, affected by cost and policy sentiment [112]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: Internationally, the net long positions of funds increased slightly. Domestically, the spot price and futures price of sugar rose, and the basis decreased [126][127]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation and may be driven by rising crude oil. Domestically, it is mainly in a range - bound arrangement [128][151]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton first rose and then fell, and Zhengzhou cotton futures rose after the holiday [152]. - **Fundamentals**: The export data of US cotton was not good, and the production of Brazilian cotton might be reduced. Domestically, the cotton price rose, and the downstream was in the process of resuming work [156][162][163]. - **Future Outlook**: ICE cotton is in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [168]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of hogs was weak, and the futures price was in a weak shock [171]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price of hogs is expected to continue to be weak and find the bottom, and the futures market can pay attention to short - selling opportunities [172][173].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the reality of Indonesian mines is catching up, and speculative attributes should be watched out for in March. The current high inventory of nickel may limit the price elasticity, but the expected shortage of mines is gradually becoming a reality. In March, the tight supply situation of mines is unlikely to ease significantly. The price of Indonesian nickel mines has risen significantly. The short - term marginal cost is the integrated pyrometallurgical path, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in March. In the medium - to - long term, it is necessary to track whether Indonesia increases the quota and whether the supply elasticity of the Philippines is released as expected [1]. - For stainless steel, the contradiction at the mine end has increased marginally, and the cost support has shifted upward. The speculative attributes of Shanghai Nickel in the mine - end game also drive stainless steel. In March, the mine - end contradiction may still ferment, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels within the range, while the fundamentals mainly limit the elasticity [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The speculative attributes of the market are dominant, and the open interest is still increasing at a high level. The current high inventory of nickel may limit price elasticity. The expected shortage of mines is becoming a reality. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has increased by $23 year - on - year and $14 month - on - month in February to $68. The integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost has risen to 130,000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try long positions lightly at low levels in March, and track two key points in the medium - to - long term [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the mine end drives up the cost of ferronickel, and the cost support for stainless steel has shifted upward. In March, the mine - end contradiction may still ferment, and the speculative funds will support the market. The supply - demand contradiction in the stainless steel segment is not significant, and the high production schedule in March faces challenges in consumption verification. It is advisable to try long positions lightly at low levels within the range [2]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On February 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,616 tons to 76,619 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 888 tons to 287,976 tons [3]. - **New Energy**: On February 27, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 7, and 7 days respectively compared with the previous month. The precursor inventory increased by 0.5 to 13.6 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.5 to 7.5 days month - on - month [4]. - **Ferronickel - Stainless Steel**: On February 27, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM ferronickel increased by 9% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. In January, the stainless steel factory inventory of SMM was 1.5 million tons. On February 26, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.1727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.57% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota has been cut by 70% compared with 2025 [6][8]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [7]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia on February 18, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [7]. - Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back the operations of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [7]. - The Indonesian forest area management working group has imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices of various products in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, ferronickel, red clay nickel ore, stainless steel, and nickel sulfate [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for pure benzene is strengthening due to factors such as potential production load reduction and geopolitical concerns affecting crude oil prices. The supply of styrene is returning in February, but the fundamentals are weakening, and the downstream demand feedback of the styrene industry chain is limited [10][42][66]. - With the slowdown of refining and chemical production capacity expansion in China, the new production capacity of pure benzene will slow down in the future, and the new capacity in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, roughly matching the commissioning time of new styrene plants [10]. - The global styrene industry is facing the dual pressures of capacity expansion and demand contraction, and the profit space is continuously squeezed. However, the shutdown of some foreign styrene plants is beneficial for exports [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation 3.1.1 Pure Benzene Cost Support Strengthens - At the beginning of 2026, pure benzene broke through the bottom - shock range. The collective rise of aromatic products is the result of the resonance of cost support, supply disturbances, and macro - sentiment. The long - term production load of pure benzene may be affected by the news of full - scale consumption tax collection in the naphtha circulation link [10]. - In the first quarter, the new pure benzene production capacity is 300,000 tons. In the future, the new production capacity of pure benzene will slow down, and the new capacity in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The import volume of pure benzene is expected to decrease month - on - month in January - February due to the US tariff on South Korean aromatics [10]. - In February, the operating load of domestic petroleum benzene returned to over 80%, while the load of hydro - benzene decreased compared with January. Some plants have restart plans, and the inventory of pure benzene is still high [11]. - The escalation of the US - Iran situation provides support for crude oil prices, strengthening the cost support for pure benzene [11]. 3.1.2 The Weekly Weighted Operating Load of Pure Benzene Downstream Increased in January - As of the 19th of February, the weekly weighted operating load of pure benzene downstream was 76.98%, a month - on - month increase. The operating rates of aniline and adipic acid increased month - on - month, while the load of caprolactam plants decreased, and the spot supply was tight. Phenol - acetone enterprises had serious losses, but the industry operating rate was relatively high [23]. 3.1.3 Styrene Supply Returned in February, and the Fundamentals Weakened - In 2026, the planned new styrene production capacity in China is 700,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate dropping to around 3%. In February, the styrene industry was profitable, and the load increased month - on - month due to the restart of some plants [42]. - The port inventory of styrene increased seasonally, but the increase was lower than expected. The supply - demand structure of styrene weakened during the Spring Festival [43]. - The global styrene industry is facing capacity expansion and demand contraction, and many domestic and foreign production plants have reduced production or shut down. Some foreign plants' shutdowns are beneficial for exports [49]. 3.1.4 The Demand Feedback of the Styrene Industry Chain Downstream was Limited - During the Spring Festival, the operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS downstream of styrene decreased month - on - month. The procurement demand of small and medium - sized downstream enterprises may gradually weaken, and the transaction volume is difficult to increase effectively [66]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of the three S products (EPS, ABS, PS) are still weak. The demand of ABS is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, the willingness of EPS downstream to receive goods at high prices may continue to decline, and the supply - demand pressure of PS still exists [66]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The new production capacity of pure benzene in the first quarter is 300,000 tons, and the new capacity will slow down in the future. The import volume of pure benzene is expected to decrease month - on - month in January - February. The styrene industry is profitable, but the profit space is squeezed. Some foreign plant shutdowns are beneficial for exports [75][76]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: Buy on dips after a pull - back. Without the cooperation of cost - side crude oil drivers, the upward driving force is not strong [77]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities and shrink the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [77]. - Options: Wait and see [77].