Group 1 - The report from Haitong International indicates that A-shares are expected to consolidate in September, while Hong Kong stocks may receive short-term support due to easing liquidity pressures and a strengthening RMB [1] - A-shares experienced significant fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.1%. Hong Kong stocks also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 5.3% [1] - The Jackson Hole meeting saw Powell release dovish signals, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which increased by over 9%. However, recent US inflation data confirmed rate cut expectations, causing gold prices to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - The liquidity in Hong Kong remains stable, with HIBOR maintaining stability. The RMB has appreciated moderately against the USD, but a potential rebound in the USD may weaken this support for Hong Kong stocks [2] - Southbound capital inflow surged to HKD 60.8 billion last week, with Alibaba receiving HKD 22 billion of inflow, totaling HKD 37 billion since September [2] - The report suggests that the market has fully priced in three rate cuts this year, leading to a strong rebound in A-share technology stocks, while Hong Kong stocks are boosted by Alibaba and Baidu [2]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive trading days, reaching a peak of $2,705 per ton, the highest level since March [1] - The market is anticipating a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which is putting pressure on the dollar and boosting metal prices, including aluminum [1] - Concerns over supply have intensified due to a surge in extraction inventory applications, contributing to the recent price support for aluminum [1] Group 2 - Bank of America forecasts a significant shift in the aluminum market, predicting a supply surplus of 31,600 tons in 2025, but a reversal to a supply deficit of 29,200 tons by 2026, with prices potentially rising to $3,000 per ton by Q4 2026 [1] - The anticipated aluminum supply shortage in 2026 largely depends on the recovery of demand in Europe and the U.S., with U.S. consumers not yet fully absorbing the 50% aluminum import tariff [2] - China's aluminum demand remains robust, supported by purchases from the power grid, solar panel, and automotive sectors, leading to record-high domestic consumption [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in Q3 and Q4 this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. Hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse hedging [1]. - Zinc prices are in a narrow range this week. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Short - term unilateral can be used as a short position, and internal - external positive hedging can continue to be held [2]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated. Continue to pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and pay attention to the news of the Indonesian nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level [7]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations this week. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9]. - For industrial silicon, 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely this week. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price support is strong during the peak season [15]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory did not accumulate, and downstream开工 decreased month - on - month. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive hedging has room [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, overseas demand declined significantly, and 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and pay attention to demand [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic production TC decreased slightly, and imported TC increased. 9 - month smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate [2]. Nickel - Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehouse delivery. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to resume gradually, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is maintained. Fundamentals are weak, and follow the anti - involution expectation in the short - term [6]. Lead - Lead prices rose due to macro - factors this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level. Prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week [7]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is short - term tight, demand has limited elasticity, and domestic inventory fluctuates. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand [9]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly. The current contradiction lies in the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - capacity [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and liquidity of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF managed by Harvest, which has seen a trading turnover of 4% and a transaction volume of 11.56 million yuan during the trading session [3] - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the Harvest Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has been 65.30 million yuan [3] - The fund has experienced a net inflow of 18.31 million yuan over the last 19 trading days, indicating stable capital flow [3] Group 2 - The Harvest Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI), which reflects the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies related to technology that can be traded through the Stock Connect [3] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut, which could benefit Hong Kong assets [3] - The combination of the A/H market rotation trend observed this year, the anticipated rate cut in September, and the easing competition in the internet sector suggests that the previously stated view of Hong Kong technology stocks catching up may materialize in September [3] Group 3 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCITI include SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Xiaomi Group-W, Meituan-W, Lenovo Group, SenseTime-W, Sunny Optical Technology, and Bilibili-W, collectively accounting for 72.98% of the index [5]

Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified volatility near historical highs, with expectations of increased fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals, particularly gold, is expected to continue, supported by central bank buying and a complex global trade environment [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures notes that despite a rebound in the U.S. August CPI, the overall data remains mild and aligns with market expectations, highlighting the fragility of the U.S. labor market. This has solidified market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Southwest Futures emphasizes that the current global trade and financial environment is complex, with significant uncertainty regarding tariffs. The trends of "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization" are favorable for gold's investment and hedging value [1] - UBS forecasts that gold prices will rise to $3,900 per ounce by mid-next year, driven by favorable market conditions and increased ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Galaxy Futures suggests that the recent bullish factors for precious metals are nearing full realization, which may lead to increased volatility in the market [1] - UBS analysts indicate that the recent surge in gold prices, following a breakout from a consolidation pattern, confirms the effectiveness of the upward movement, despite potential short-term fluctuations [2] - Jefferies highlights that a weak dollar presents a significant opportunity for gold, as a declining dollar typically correlates with rising gold prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing increased activity as it enters a seasonal sales peak, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut due to signs of a weak labor market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 15, spot gold is trading around $3628 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.26% last week, closing at $3643.21 per ounce, just below the peak of $3674 earlier in the week [2]. - Analysts remain bullish on gold, with some institutions predicting prices could rise above $3900 per ounce in the future [3]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for gold prices, with expectations of a dovish signal potentially pushing prices higher [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold shows a consolidation phase, with key support levels at $3600 and $3500. A drop below these levels could indicate a shift in market sentiment [4][6]. - Current trading ranges are identified between $3615 and $3660, with expectations of limited movement until the Federal Reserve's decision [6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $3620 and selling on rebounds near $3657-3660, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The labor market's weakness is reinforcing expectations for a rate cut, which is expected to lower real interest rates and diminish the dollar's appeal, further supporting gold's value [3]. - The upcoming release of key economic data, including U.S. retail sales, is also crucial for market sentiment and gold price movements [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is consolidating at a high level while silver is taking over and strengthening [4]. - The inflation data announced last week was generally in line with expectations, with the CPI rising and the PPI falling, which strengthened the expectation of a September interest - rate cut [4]. - Multiple data in September showed a weak employment market in the US, further confirming the prospect of a September interest - rate cut and pushing up the price of gold [4]. - There is speculation about a 50 - bp interest - rate cut, but it is more likely to have multiple interest - rate cuts within the year, with a neutral expectation of three cuts [4]. - The trade environment is deteriorating, and the long - term driver for gold remains clear due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold purchases [4]. - Gold and silver are likely to show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and there are concerns about Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: - For沪金2510, the current price is 834.00, up 3.22 (0.39%) from the previous close, with a position of 114,423 and a trading volume of 165,360 [2]. - For沪金2512, the current price is 836.00, up 3.16 (0.38%) from the previous close, with a position of 210,404 and a trading volume of 107,160 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: - For沪银2510, the current price is 10,051.00, up 253.00 (2.58%) from the previous close, with a position of 203,343 and a trading volume of 301,985 [2]. - For沪银2512, the current price is 10,075.00, up 254.00 (2.59%) from the previous close, with a position of 353,668 and a trading volume of 196,315 [2]. Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: - Shanghai Gold T + D's previous - day closing price was 826.09, down 3.63 (- 0.44%) [2]. - London Gold's previous - day closing price was 831.58, down 1.70 (- 0.20%) [2]. - **Silver Spot**: - Shanghai Silver T + D's previous - day closing price was 9,772.00, down 12.00 (- 0.12%) [2]. - London Silver's previous - day closing price was 41.50, up 0.36 (0.87%) [2]. Inventory - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 50,151 kg, an increase of 4,200 kg [2]. - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 1,240,187 kg, a decrease of 11,983 kg [2]. - COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increases by 1,384,668 [2]. Related Market Data - The US dollar index is 97.5299, down 0.32% [2]. - The S&P index is 6,587.47, up 0.85% [2]. - The US Treasury yield is 4.01, down 0.74% [2]. - Brent crude oil is 66.31, up 0.01% [2]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1129, down 0.10% [2]. Derivatives - The position of spdr gold ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - The position of SLV silver ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481 [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2]. Macro News - There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and a very slim chance of a 50 - bp cut [3]. - Rick Rieder of BlackRock is among the top candidates for the next Fed chair and has advocated a 50 - bp interest - rate cut [3]. - The US's 15% "reciprocal tariff" on most EU goods has impacted Italy's pharmaceutical export industry, with an estimated cost increase of up to 19.5 billion euros [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of 50 basis points due to weak employment data and inflation concerns [2][4] - The U.S. retail sales and European inflation data are anticipated to influence future policy directions [3][5] - The European Central Bank has maintained its interest rates, with traders expecting only a minor reduction by the end of the year [5][6] Group 2 - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.33% to $62.69 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.27% to $66.99 per barrel [4] - Gold prices have reached a historical high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.00% to $3649.40 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - UBS forecasts that gold prices could rise to $3900 per ounce by mid-next year due to favorable market conditions [4] Group 3 - The upcoming week will see the release of significant economic data, including U.S. retail sales and industrial output, as well as earnings reports from companies like General Mills and FedEx [3][21] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4.0%, with market focus on potential future rate cuts [5][6] - The new housing rental regulations in China aim to address market issues and promote high-quality development in the rental market [10]

【市场复盘】 9月12日，港股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，恒生指数涨1.16%，报26388.16点；恒生科技指数涨 1.71%，报5989.27点；国企指数涨1.13%，报9364.94点。盘面上，医药股显著回升，AI概念股表现活 跃。周线上看，恒生指数全周累计上涨3.82%，恒生科技指数累计上涨5.31%，国企指数累计上涨 3.4%。热点个股方面，百度集团涨超8%，阿里巴巴涨近5.5%，快手涨超2.5%，腾讯控股涨超2%。热点 ETF方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）收涨0.87%。 【南向资金】 1、当地时间9月18日，美联储将公布9月利率决议。当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他 预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 截至发文，CME FedWatch Tool显示，美联储9月议息 会议降息概率达100%，其中降息25BP的概率为96.4%，降息50BP的概率为3.6%。 2、近日，腾讯控股在港交所公告，已向联交所申请一项总额为300亿美元的全球中期票据计划，该计划 于2025年9月15日后起计12个月上市，仅向专业投资者发行。该计划的上市将自2025年9月16日开始生 效。 ...