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煤焦日报:多空博弈,煤焦震荡运行-20251224
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 10:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 24, the coke main contract closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.20%. The position volume was 28,700 lots, a decrease of 552 lots from the previous trading day. The Rizhao Port quasi-primary wet quenched coke flat price index was 1,520 yuan/ton, down 3.18% week-on-week; the Qingdao Port quasi-primary wet quenched coke ex-warehouse price was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week. Coke maintains a weak supply and demand pattern, but downstream winter storage replenishment and anti-involution expectations drive the coke futures to stop falling. With the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production after January, attention should be paid to the subsequent downstream replenishment and production rhythm [5][28]. - On December 24, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,132 points, with an intraday increase of 0.62%. The position volume was 500,500 lots, a decrease of 8,652 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week. Currently, the pressure on the coking coal supply side is released periodically. With the resurgence of downstream winter storage replenishment and anti-involution expectations, the market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the coking coal main contract has rebounded from a low level. Attention can be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm in the near future [5][28]. Summary by Directory Industry News - The People's Bank of China and seven other departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support the high-quality development of the corridor [8]. - On December 24, the coking coal price in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex-factory price of low-sulfur primary coking coal with A9, S0.5, V20, and G85 was 1,600 yuan/ton, cash含税 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi-Primary Flat) | 1,520 yuan/ton | -3.18% | -8.98% | -10.06% | -12.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi-Primary Ex-Warehouse) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.07% | -8.64% | -8.64% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,140 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -10.94% | -3.39% | -6.56% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Origin) | 1,510 yuan/ton | 1.34% | -3.82% | 1.34% | 2.03% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Origin) | 1,700 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -0.58% | 11.11% | 11.11% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,746 yuan/ton | 0.20% | 1,759.5 yuan/ton | 1,723 yuan/ton | 16,601 | 28 | 28,726 | -552 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,132 points | 0.62% | 1,143.5 points | 1,107 points | 1,169,245 | -73,297 | 500,547 | -8,652 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory, coking coal inventory, and other related production and consumption data, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plant inventory, etc., as well as the production situation of domestic steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, etc. [14][15][16]
过剩格局下的矛盾演化与政策博弈:2026年光伏产业链年度报告
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 10:09
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of "overall surplus and structural differentiation." Supply will be concentrated in the northwest, with slow clearance of backward capacity. Demand growth will slow down, mainly driven by polysilicon but limited by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. Electricity cost is the core variable, with the northwest having a stable cost advantage and the southwest showing significant seasonal fluctuations. Prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost range, constrained by supply elasticity [5][7][10]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon industry is transitioning from an "excess logic" to a complex stage of "policy intervention and high - quality capacity reshaping." Supply will experience structural changes, with backward capacity facing rigid exit and high - quality N - type material in short supply. Demand will enter a platform period due to the slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth, and the industrial chain profit needs to be redistributed downstream. The market will be in a game between the "policy bottom" and the "demand top," and price trends and basis structures will be significantly affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [5][13][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a significant downward trend in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, and then fluctuated widely in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest, weak downstream demand, and policy expectations [25]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market in 2025 went through four stages: shock, decline, sharp rise, and high - level consolidation. Policy factors, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment were the main drivers of price changes [28][29][30]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Power Cost**: Power cost is the most important variable in the cost of industrial silicon. The southwest has obvious seasonal power cost changes, while the northwest has a relatively stable power cost structure. In the future, the power cost advantage in Xinjiang will be more obvious through the source - network - load - storage integration model, and Yunnan and Sichuan have their own green power utilization models, but there are still challenges in power supply stability [34][35][36]. - **Silicon Coal**: In 2025, the price of silicon coal dropped by 30% - 45%, but in 2026, the downward space is limited. If the coal price stabilizes and rebounds, it will support the cost of industrial silicon. The price of silicon coal is expected to rebound to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton if the "anti - involution" policy promotes industry self - discipline [43][44]. - **Overall Cost and Profit**: The cost of industrial silicon is relatively stable in 2026. The northwest has a lower cost, while the southwest has higher costs in the dry season. The profit level in 2025 was differentiated, and the industry profit rebounded slightly in the second half of the year [49]. 3.3 Supply - **Excess Pattern and Slow Clearance**: The industrial silicon supply in 2026 will maintain the pattern of overall surplus and structural differentiation. There is a large amount of backward capacity, and the market has difficulty in quickly clearing it due to policy - market differences and regional interest differentiation [57][58][62]. - **New Capacity**: New capacity will still be concentrated in the northwest in 2026. However, due to the impact of industrial silicon profits, the construction and commissioning of some new capacity may be postponed [67]. 3.4 Demand - **Polysilicon**: The demand for polysilicon in 2026 will be affected by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. The supply of polysilicon will experience structural changes, with backward capacity being eliminated and high - quality N - type material in short supply. The price and basis structure will be affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [69][74][131]. - **Organic Silicon**: The demand for organic silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. The supply - demand balance is expected to be repaired, and exports will drive the growth of organic silicon demand [104][107]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The demand for silicon in the aluminum alloy industry will remain stable in 2026. Although the production of the aluminum alloy industry is growing, the consumption of primary industrial silicon is limited, and new energy vehicle consumption has limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon [112]. - **Export**: The export of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. Overseas markets mainly purchase on - demand, and some overseas orders have been transferred to China due to cost and quality advantages [122]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply of industrial silicon will increase slightly, and the demand growth rate will be about 5%. The supply - demand gap will widen slightly, and the surplus pattern will be slightly improved [125][126]. - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon will be affected by policies. If the capacity is tightened as expected, the market will be in a tight - balance state; otherwise, it will remain in an oversupply state [127][129]. 3.6 Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the industrial silicon market will continue to be in a slightly surplus state. Prices will fluctuate around the cost range, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by short - term supply - demand mismatches and policy implementation [10][130]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market will be in a game between policy implementation, capacity clearance, and global installation demand. The price will seek a balance among the "policy bottom," "demand top," and "quality difference," and the market may be in a tight - balance state [17][131].
2025年行业打分表结论回顾与策略反思:行业轮动如何做到既敏锐又不丢主线?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-12-24 08:51
Core Insights - The 2025 industry scoring report identified the top five sectors as Electric New Energy, Military Industry, Nonferrous Metals, Machinery, and Chemicals, which showed a strong correlation with actual annual performance [1][3][18] - A simulated equal-weighted portfolio of the top five sectors yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% by December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with a monthly success rate exceeding 90% [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes that in a bullish market, focusing on industry fundamentals is more effective than trading strategies, advocating for a buy-and-hold approach based on economic cycles [1][5][21] 2025 Industry Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 16% in 2025, marking the largest increase since 2020, with Nonferrous Metals and Communication sectors leading the gains at 89.9% and 89% respectively [2][13] - The report highlights that the performance of Nonferrous Metals and Communication significantly outpaced the CSI 300's 17.4% increase [12][13] 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Conclusions and Performance Review - The annual scoring report, published in November 2024, ranked Electric New Energy, Military Industry, Nonferrous Metals, Machinery, and Chemicals as the top five sectors, correlating well with actual performance [3][18] - The top five sectors' simulated portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 44.8%, with 11 out of 12 months showing positive excess returns [3][20] 2025 Monthly Industry Scoring Conclusions and Performance Review - The monthly scoring report indicated a sample return of 34.7% since 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 14.8%, although this was lower than the annual scoring report's performance [4][12] - Key insights from the monthly performance include successful allocations in Communication and Nonferrous Metals, while frequent trading led to missed opportunities [4][5] Summary and Reflections - The analysis suggests that in a bullish market, prioritizing industry fundamentals over trading strategies is crucial, with a focus on tracking industry prosperity differences [5][21] - For 2026, sectors that should receive higher fundamental scores include those aligned with cyclical and technological trends, particularly in areas like Electronics, Communication, Military, Consumer Services, Agriculture, Trade, Pharmaceuticals, Electric New Energy, Chemicals, and Automotive [5][21]
2026:经济温和修复,股市长牛继续
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 07:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The report is cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. It predicts that the A - share market will shift from valuation - driven to a mode of both valuation and profit contribution, with an expected annual index increase of about 10%. The long - term bull market in A - shares may continue throughout the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [4][103]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Year Review: A Feast of Equities - In 2025, it was a feast for equity assets globally. Global stock markets generally rose, supported by three common factors: global fiscal and monetary "double - easing", the AI industry trend, and the "de - dollarization" narrative [16]. - In China's A - share market, it showed a diverse and hot state. Most indices rose by over 20%, with micro - cap stocks performing best. The significant difference in performance between micro - cap stocks and blue - chip weight indices was mainly due to institutional behavior and capital attributes [24]. 2. 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Recovery and Deepening Differentiation 2.1 Exports: Room for Surplus Remains, and Resilience Continues in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports grew strongly, with a trade surplus reaching a record high. The market has debated the balance of the trade surplus, but China's trade surplus/GDP still has room to expand [30][31]. - In 2026, although global demand may slow down, China's active economic and trade policies and the certainty of Chinese enterprises going global will support exports. The export growth rate is predicted to be around 3 - 4% [42]. 2.2 Real Estate: In the Stock Era with Moderate Policies, It May Still Decline in 2026 - The real estate industry has entered the stock era, with the housing supply approaching saturation. It still has a strong financial attribute, and the pessimistic market expectations may lead to a continued decline in 2026 [43][45]. - The continuous adjustment of the real estate industry will affect residents' wealth and total demand, putting pressure on domestic demand [50]. 2.3 Fiscal Policy: Small - scale Total Growth and Possible Structural Re - equilibrium - In 2025, China's fiscal policy was more active, with an increased deficit rate and special bonds. The fiscal expenditure structure shifted towards people - oriented investment, weakening investment in infrastructure [56][58]. - In 2026, the fiscal policy will maintain an active tone but with limited expansion. The structure may be re - balanced, and the pace will be front - loaded, with obvious guidance on industrial policies [62]. 2.4 Monetary Policy: Limited Easing Space, More Focus on Flexibility and Precision - In 2025, the central bank's monetary easing had limited impact on credit expansion. Constrained by factors such as low corporate returns and high mortgage rates, the central bank's further interest rate cuts are restricted [63]. - In 2026, the central bank will maintain a loose policy, use various policy tools more flexibly, and support industrial upgrading and domestic demand expansion [69]. 2.5 Inflation: The Contradiction between Capacity Reduction and Capacity Increase - In 2026, China's industrial production capacity is still in a state of over - supply. The "anti - involution" policy aims to reduce capacity, but it faces challenges in implementation [71][73]. - At the same time, new fixed - asset investments will increase production capacity. On the consumer side, the expansion of service consumption will support CPI. It is predicted that PPI will recover to around - 1% and CPI to around 0.8% [74][81]. 3. 2026 Stock Index Outlook: The Long - term Bull Market Continues - The current A - share market valuation is not low, and the space for further valuation expansion in 2026 is limited, with the target P/E ratio estimated to be between 20 - 24x [96]. - It is predicted that the profit growth rates of the entire A - share market, non - financial stocks, and financial stocks in 2026 will be 4.5%, 8.4%, and 1.0% respectively, showing an N - shaped trend throughout the year [100]. - In terms of capital preferences, technology stocks and blue - chip growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 [102]. 4. Investment Advice: Continue to Hold the Long - Position Strategy for Stock Indices - Be cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. The long - term bull market in A - shares will continue, and the long - position strategy is recommended [4][103]. - Favor the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) with a high proportion of technology stocks and the SSE 50 Index Futures (IF) with more blue - chip stocks. The performance of the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) may be weaker in 2026 [105].
中金:2026光伏需求有望修复 储能迎海内外景气共振
智通财经网· 2025-12-24 07:41
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain is expected to gradually bottom out and improve by the second half of 2025, aided by anti-involution measures, although financial improvements may slow market clearing, making the continuation of anti-involution essential [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic demand is anticipated to recover in the latter half of the 14th Five-Year Plan due to enhanced energy storage capacity and the need for market-oriented adjustments in the domestic electricity market [1] - The global energy transition is driving strong demand for energy storage, with a projected growth rate of nearly 50% for new installations in 2026, fueled by domestic policies and decreasing costs [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A decline in domestic installations is expected to lead to profit differentiation among glass glue film companies, with those having overseas clients likely to increase export ratios and profit margins [3] - The high silver prices are promoting the industrialization of silver-copper paste, while auxiliary material companies are actively seeking second growth curves in sectors like semiconductors and storage [3] Group 3: Valuation and Recommendations - Current valuations for major companies in the main industry chain are at historical low levels of 1xP/B to 2.5xP/B, with potential for performance recovery and sector opportunities as demand improves in 2Q26 [4] - Recommended stocks include: 1) Quality large-scale storage and industrial storage companies such as Canadian Solar (688472.SH), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), and others [4] 2) High-power module manufacturers like JinkoSolar (688223.SH) and Aiko Solar (600732.SH) [4] 3) Silicon material companies such as GCL-Poly Energy (03800) and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [4] 4) Optimized players like Xinyi Solar (00968) and Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) [4] 5) Companies with new product launches like Dike Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ) and Juhe Materials (688503.SH) [4]
兴银景气优选A(010124)近1年涨幅近50%!
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-24 06:42
12月24日消息,截至12月23日,Choice数据显示,兴银景气优选A(010124)近1年涨幅达到49.78%! 该基金近三年收益53.13%,位于同类前12%(409/3235)。据基金三季报,截至9月30日,该基金过去 一年收益 40.65%,超越基准收益29.41%;近三年收益30.11%,超越基准收益率12.44%。 风险提示:文中提及的指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议。任何在本文出现的 信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资 人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管 理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。 基金频道更多独家策划、专家专栏,免费查阅>> 责任编辑:栎树 在反内卷方向,认为这是国家在全国统一大市场的安排下的中长期战略安排,需要自下而上去根据每个 细分行业的具体情况来选择投资机会。优先选择即使没有反内卷政策,行业也进入了自然出清向上阶段 的细分行业,其次,看好反内卷政策能给行业带来产能退出,从而改善行业格局的细分行业。 公开资料显示,兴 ...
贵金属领涨商品,日元反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 05:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by policy expectations, Fed actions, and Japanese central bank decisions. In the current inflation - expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying commodities, stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][3][4][5] - Be vigilant about the risks of macro - and fundamental resonance if market sentiment turns cold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China have a pendulum effect. The Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized policies such as a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Multiple ministries responded, and attention should be paid to recent expectations of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, as well as policies for stabilizing growth or the supply - side. China's November economic data was still under pressure, but foreign trade growth rebounded significantly [1] - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, announcing the purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause interest rate cuts again. The previous round of the Fed's bond - buying had a limited impact on the market, mainly providing liquidity [2] - The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was low. The reversal of carry - trade derivatives had limited impact due to the low proportion of foreign - held Japanese government bonds and the non - significant increase in net long positions of the US dollar against the yen [3] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the long - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and copper prices reached a record high due to Trump's tariff expectations and mine shutdowns [4][7] - In the energy sector, some countries submitted additional production - cut plans, and there were warnings of oversupply and high inventories. There were also developments in the Ukraine - related negotiations [4] - In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4] - In the agricultural products sector, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations after the China - US peace talks [4] - In the precious metals sector, look for opportunities to buy on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated and is in the process of reasonable repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed measures to stabilize the real estate market, including incremental control, inventory reduction, and supply optimization [7] - The US Navy announced a plan to build new warships as part of Trump's "Golden Fleet" plan, aiming to revitalize the US shipbuilding industry [7] - There were price movements in commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, and copper, and some commodity futures contracts had significant price changes [7] - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry plans to issue special bonds to support investment in the US [7]
大宗商品圆桌对话:2026黄金“逢低买入”逻辑不变、白银正抢跑通胀风险、明年最大风险点在美国市场|Alpha峰会
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-24 04:17
Group 1 - The global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the logic of buying gold on dips remains unchanged for next year, with potential pullbacks expected to be around 10%-15% from recent highs [1][4][20] - Factors that could lead to a pullback in gold prices include overly optimistic economic trends and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, but such pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities [1][4][20] - The copper market is expected to experience a bull narrative in the first half of the year, driven by significant visible inventory in the U.S. and anticipated stockpiling in China post-Spring Festival, rather than economic recovery [4][20] Group 2 - The U.S. market may experience significant volatility next year, which could impact all asset classes, including commodities, presenting potential buying opportunities during downturns [2][24] - The focus for 2026 will be on sectors where supply growth stabilizes after rapid capacity expansion, particularly in the chemical industry, where price responses may lag behind company valuations [16][18] - The long-term outlook suggests that inflation will persist due to rising logistics costs from barrier trade, indicating potential opportunities in commodities [36][37] Group 3 - The influence of the Federal Reserve is expected to weaken, with fiscal policy becoming more dominant, and the dollar's credibility may be at risk, potentially leading to a drop in the dollar index to the 70-80 range [1][5][24] - The AI sector's heavy investment may not guarantee productivity gains, and if the anticipated economic recovery does not materialize, it could lead to systemic valuation declines in traditional industries [5][24][45] - The commodity market is likely to see speculative inventory accumulation when prices drop significantly, increasing the correlation between inventory levels and price movements [41][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape is expected to remain competitive, with countries vying for technological and industrial supremacy, which may lead to ongoing tensions [30][31] - China's food security has improved significantly, reducing reliance on imports, which may mitigate the impact of geopolitical threats on agricultural prices [33] - The internationalization of the renminbi is anticipated to accelerate, with potential implications for commodity pricing and trade dynamics [34][36]
估值重塑与价值重估:聚焦创业板2026两大投资主线
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 03:44
Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext Index is expected to lead the A-share market in 2026, driven by strong performance and the dual themes of technological independence and anti-involution, indicating a new phase of valuation reshaping and value reassessment [1][4]. Group 1: Technological Independence - The ChiNext serves as the main battleground for new productive forces, benefiting from policy dividends and industry trends, particularly in the fields of electric equipment, electronics, and biomedicine [4]. - As of December 19, 2025, over 70% of the market capitalization in ChiNext is concentrated in the core sectors of new information technology, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine [4]. - Profit margins in electric equipment and electronics have stabilized, with some tech sub-sectors experiencing profit growth rates exceeding 40%, reinforcing the investment value of the technology theme [4]. Group 2: Anti-Involution - The anti-involution policy aims to correct vicious competition in industries facing overcapacity and price wars, which could catalyze profit improvements in key ChiNext sectors like new energy and manufacturing [7]. - The policy is expected to optimize industry competition by regulating market order and eliminating outdated capacity, potentially improving supply-demand dynamics and stabilizing product prices and gross margins [7]. - Companies are likely to focus more on genuine technological innovation and efficiency improvements rather than mere scale expansion, enhancing free cash flow and shareholder returns [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in ChiNext - The ChiNext Index's valuation has fallen to a low level, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 39 times as of December 17, 2025, which is in the 37th percentile over the past decade [8]. - The expected net profit growth rates for the ChiNext Index are 38%, 30%, and 23% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating strong profit growth certainty [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider ChiNext index ETF products, such as E Fund ChiNext ETF, which ranks high in scale and liquidity among similar index products [9].
赵伟:综合整治“内卷式”竞争:背景、成因、影响及应对
作者简介: 赵 伟, 经济学博士,申万宏源证券首席经济学家,上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司副总经 理,中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员,中国首席经济学家论坛理事 侯倩楠 (通信作者),管理学博士,申万宏源研究所宏观分析师 屠 强, 申万宏源研究所资深高级宏观分析师 摘要 : 本文立足纵深推进全国统一大市场背景,系统探讨眼下"内卷"现象的成因、影响与 政策应对。研究指出,本轮"内卷"核心表现为PPI长期负增长及中下游产能利用率偏低,挤压企 业盈利、阻碍产业升级。深层根源是经济转型期新旧动能分化,叠加地方政府为追求GDP和财 政收入的同质化无序竞争。破解困境的对策包括:供给侧通过产量调控、淘汰落后产能优化产业 结构,提升产品质量以修复价格、增强竞争力;需求侧大力发展居民服务消费,借财政补贴与社 保完善释放消费潜力,同时引导就业从制造业向服务业转移,实现供需结构适配。本文贡献在 于,系统论证"反内卷"政策与经济高质量发展的内在联系,为相关部门优化产业结构、激发市 场活力提供理论依据与实践方向。 本文来源《新金融》2025年第12期 全文内容 综合整治"内卷式"竞争: 背景、成因、影响及应对 一 引言 近年来," ...