丙烯日报 | 2025-12-10 供应端存增量，盘面延续偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5787元/吨（-32），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6090元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差213元/吨（+32），丙烯华北基差125元/吨（+0）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR179美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR44美元/吨（-10），进口利润-341元/吨（+12），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-330元/吨（+10）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润412元/吨（-30）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润693元/吨（+0）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润415元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-676元/吨（-70）；酚酮 开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-977元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端东莞巨正源、山东滨华PDH装置存重启预期，PDH亏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market demand for black building materials is weak, with steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal all showing downward or weakening trends [1][3][5][7] - For steel, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates need improvement through production cuts [1] - Iron ore is facing a situation where supply may increase and demand is weakening, and the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions may lead to price pressure [3] - The demand for coking coal and coke is soft, and the price of coking coal is falling, while the price of coke is under downward pressure [5][6] - The thermal coal market is also weak, with falling prices at the mine mouth and in ports, and a supply - demand pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3079 yuan/ton and 3252 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has weak trading, with poor speculative sentiment and mainly low - price terminal purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with declining consumption and production, and reduced inventory pressure. The supply - demand of plates needs improvement through production cuts to reduce seasonal inventory pressure. With the arrival of the off - season for building materials, attention should be paid to the impact on fundamentals and the changes in production cuts and profits [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weak. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume in major ports is 113.7 million tons, a 1.25% increase from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply has slightly increased this week. High prices may stimulate supply, but some inventories are locked. Demand is weakening, with a decline in daily average pig iron production and seasonal decline expectations. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and price pressure may occur if external factors are removed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are falling. The demand for coke in some regions is weak due to blast furnace maintenance, and the price of coking coal at the mine mouth is continuously falling. The price of imported Mongolian coal has also declined, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to about 970 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The trading of coking coal is weak, and the supply - demand structure of coke is relatively loose. The price of coke is under downward pressure due to the weak cost side. Attention should be paid to the impact of autumn - winter environmental protection on enterprises and coal price trends [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to trade in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices of thermal coal at the mine mouth in the main production areas are falling. The market demand is weak, with terminal demand - based procurement and traders having a bearish outlook. The port market is also weak, with rising inventories and difficult trading. The prices of both domestic and imported coal are falling, and imported coal has a cost - performance advantage [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is in a range - bound state. In the long - term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][7][9] 2. Core Views Methanol - Yesterday, methanol futures oscillated narrowly at low levels. The supply in the inland increased with the restart of some devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based methanol were weak. The traditional downstream demand slightly improved, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, due to gas restrictions in Iran, many devices stopped production, leading to an expected significant decline in imports in Q1 and strengthened inventory - reduction expectations, but current overseas shipments were still high, and there were many recent warehouse receipts registrations, resulting in weak prices. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of MTO05 [1] Polyolefins - The polyolefin market continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment and weak trading. The polyethylene supply is increasing as the operating rate gradually recovers, and although upstream inventory is being depleted faster, it is still higher year - on - year. The profit of PE is relatively good among ethylene downstream products, so there is no obvious drive for production reduction. The polypropylene supply is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion has accelerated, but the overall inventory level is still higher than in previous years. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of the PP production process, and the overall valuation is moderately to low. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [5] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday. Although API data showed a significant decline in US crude oil inventory last week, it was still difficult to alleviate market concerns about oversupply. Geopolitical situations such as the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine peace talks still affected oil prices. The Fed's interest - rate meeting on December 11 may boost market sentiment. It is expected that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - $65 per barrel in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the announcements of the IEA, OPEC, and the Fed meeting [7] Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the expectation of an increase in overseas supply is rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia may cause market speculation. On the demand side, the production scheduling of tire - maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, which drives overall output to some extent. However, the shipment rhythm of tire enterprises is slow, and production control behavior still exists, limiting the increase in overall capacity utilization. The market is mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term purchase rhythm has slowed down, with end - users maintaining rigid demand. Overall, the inventory accumulation in Qingdao spot market has slowed down, and due to the geopolitical conflict, the bearish sentiment in the market has converged. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate [9] LPG - The LPG market shows a complex situation. Futures prices generally declined, while some spot prices remained stable or had small fluctuations. The inventory of LPG refineries and ports decreased, and the operating rate of upstream and downstream industries had minor changes. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and international prices [11] Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the operating rate has returned to a high level, and production remains high. The pending orders of soda ash plants have decreased, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern this week, with a significant oversupply. Downstream demand has decreased, especially in the float - glass industry, and the photovoltaic industry is difficult to grow in the short term. The overall demand for soda ash has contracted. Without actual capacity withdrawal or production - load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. The overall situation is still bearish, and the price will continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. Short positions can be held. For glass, the spot price in some areas has shown signs of weakness, and the production - sales ratio has declined. The short - term demand in some southern regions is supported by the year - end construction rush, but there are concerns about the long - term demand. With the decrease in temperature in the north, outdoor construction will stop, and the outflow of glass from the northeast and northwest will put pressure on other regions. The 01 contract will still face pressure as the delivery month approaches, and the high inventory in the middle - stream trade and futures - spot sectors will also pressure the spot price. It is expected that the futures market will still face pressure [13] PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has certain pressure. The operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is at a high level, and the inventory of main downstream enterprises is high. There is no obvious positive news in the short term. The supply in the East China region is still abundant, and the traditional off - season of demand continues, with no obvious boost from exports. It is expected that the price in East China will continue to weaken, and the long - term supply - demand situation still has pressure. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly, and short positions can be held. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The demand is sluggish, and although the support from soft products is relatively good, the overall downstream operating rate remains low. The traditional off - season from November to January and the reduction of real - estate demand in the north due to winter have a negative impact. Although domestic PVC has a price advantage in exports and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties makes it difficult for external demand to increase significantly. The overall demand has weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation is in an oversupply pattern. The price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low and the futures market has been strong recently, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the weakening trend at the bottom [14] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, although the short - term impact on supply is limited due to short - process operating rate support, there is an expected supply contraction in Q1 with the planned maintenance of some Asian devices. The demand side is weak due to concentrated PTA device maintenance and seasonal decline in end - demand. The short - term drive is limited, but there is support at low levels due to the expected improvement in medium - term supply - demand. It is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton. For PTA, the device maintenance in December is still concentrated, and the reduction of polyester operating rate is postponed due to domestic and foreign demand support. After the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the export expectation has increased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with a phased repair of the basis. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose in Q1, and the repair space of the basis is limited. The absolute price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton, and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 can be considered. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is loose from January to February. However, the high - level operation of polyester production provides support for ethylene glycol demand. At the same time, many domestic ethylene glycol devices have been shut down or reduced production, narrowing the inventory - accumulation amplitude in December. It is expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, and the EG1 - 5 spread reversal strategy can stop loss and exit. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation remains weak. The supply is at a high level as there is still profit and low inventory pressure. The end - demand is seasonally weakening. The short - fiber price will oscillate weakly following the raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA, and the processing margin on the futures market can be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply in December is expected to increase, and it is the off - season of demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The main contradiction is the high inventory and weak demand. The price will mainly follow the cost, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The strategy is the same as that for PTA, and the processing margin of the main contract is expected to oscillate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton. The short - term strategy is to short the processing margin [15] Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, some disproportionation devices and individual large plants plan to conduct maintenance and reduce production load, but some devices will resume production. The domestic supply is expected to remain stable. The overall downstream cash - flow has improved, but the increase in device maintenance and future shutdown plans limit the demand. There will still be a large amount of imports arriving at ports, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price drive is weak. The US - Asia arbitrage window theoretically exists. Pay attention to South Korea's export situation. The short - term self - drive of BZ2603 is weak. Pay attention to domestic device changes, and the price may follow the oil price and styrene. For styrene, the planned and unplanned maintenance of styrene devices is expected to increase, but the overall operating rate may slightly increase as the profit continues to recover, and the overall supply pressure may remain. Some downstream industries' operating rates have decreased due to cold air, and the high inventory and profit - decline pressure limit the demand. There will be export shipments in December, and the port inventory may continue to decrease. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, but due to weak cost support and seasonal decline in end - demand, the upward space is limited. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market has obvious long - short games, and the futures market may be affected by oil prices and macro - factors. The short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly [17] Urea - The current spot price of urea has shown signs of weakness, and the trading atmosphere in mainstream regions has weakened, with a slowdown in trading enthusiasm. The daily production of urea has significantly rebounded, further intensifying the supply pressure, while the downstream demand is still in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction between weak supply and demand is prominent, which will suppress the urea price in the short term. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. If the spot price continues to weaken, the futures price will further decline. Pay attention to the 1620 - 1700 yuan/ton range [18] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices decreased, with declines of - 1.10% and - 1.56% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 11, with a change rate of - 12.50%. The Taicang basis increased by 11, with a change rate of - 366.67%. The MTO05 spread increased by 12, with a change rate of - 7.45%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang changed, with changes of - 0.75% and 0.36% respectively, and the Taicang spot price remained unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.32%, the port inventory decreased by 1.03% (1.41 million tons), and the social inventory decreased by 1.52% [1] - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 0.59%, the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.34%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 3.69%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 2.00%. The downstream formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE operating rates had minor changes [1] Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.29%, - 1.46%, - 1.32%, and - 1.41% respectively. The L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE decreased, with declines of - 0.47% and - 1.06% respectively [5] - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% (4.93 million tons), the PE social inventory decreased by 3.05%, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% (4.75 million tons), and the PP trader inventory decreased by 7.73% [5] - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.54%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.22%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 0.68%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 4.68% [5] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices decreased, with declines of - 0.88%, - 1.07%, and - 1.56% respectively. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads changed. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also decreased [7] - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, and Singapore gasoline increased, while the crack spreads of US diesel and Singapore diesel decreased [7] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, the full - latex basis increased by 21.92%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 3.25%. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads changed [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in October decreased, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production and export volume in October decreased, and the natural rubber import volume decreased [9] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 1.49%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE increased by 11.79%, the dry - rubber bonded - warehouse delivery rate in Qingdao decreased, and the general - trade warehousing and delivery rates increased [9] LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 decreased, with declines of - 1.17%, - 1.00%, and - 1.06% respectively. The PG01 - 12, PG01 - 02, and PG01 - 03 spreads changed. The South China spot price and deliverable spot price remained stable or had minor declines [11] - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased by 1.31%, the port inventory decreased by 7.04% (20.8 million tons), and the port storage - capacity ratio decreased by 7.05% [11] - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 0.11%, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased by 0.99%, the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.57%, and the downstream alkylation operating rate decreased by 5.25% [11] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2601 price decreased by 1.80%, and the 01 basis increased by 31.03% [13] - **Soda Ash**: The prices of North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest remained unchanged. The soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices decreased, with declines of - 0.71% and - 1.15% respectively, and the 01 basis increased by 4.79% [13] - **Supply and Inventory**: The soda - ash operating rate increased by 0.82%, the weekly soda - ash production increased by 0.83% (0.6 million tons), the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.40%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged. The glass inventory decreased by 4.68% (292 million cubic meters), the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 5.35% (8.5 million tons), and the soda - ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.64% (2.7 million tons) [13] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the V2601 and V2605 prices decreased, with declines of - 1.4% and - 1.5% respectively. The V basis increased by 77.4% [14] - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.2%, the alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.5%, and the PVC downstream product operating rate decreased [14] - **Inventory**: The liquid - caustic East China factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.2%, the liquid - caustic Shandong inventory decreased by 3.5%, the PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.0%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 0.3% [14] Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX decreased [15] - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - Flow**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products remained stable or had minor declines. The cash - flows of POY

白糖产业期现日报 元 F / 发期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月10日 70016336 刘珂 | 期货市场情况 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 白糖2601 | 5343 | 5337 | 6 | 0.11% | | | 白糖2605 | 5247 | 5244 | 3 | 0.06% | 元/吨 | | ICE原糖主力 | 14.66 | 14.83 | -0.17 | -1.15% | 美分/磅 | | 白糖1-5价差 | 96 | ਰੇਤੇ | 3 | 3.23% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 260465 | 289716 | -29251 | -10.10% | ਜੇ | | 仓单数量 | 181 | 181 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 有效预报 | 1705 | 1490 | 215 | 14.43% | इर | | 现货市场价格 | | | | | | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no mention of the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions of various energy - chemical futures such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Most products are in a state of shock, with some showing short - term strength or weakness, and investors are advised to operate according to different product characteristics and market conditions [2][12][13] - For example, PX is in a high - level shock market, with tight supply and certain demand support; PTA is supported by cost and shows a high - level shock trend; MEG has limited downside space in the short term due to device production cuts, but faces supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure in the medium term [12][13][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level shock market. Supply has a contraction expectation, but demand is still high under the high - start mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [12] - **PTA**: High - level shock market, cost - supported. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA for the 05 contract, and conduct a 5 - 9 positive spread. The unilateral price is in a high - level shock due to PX support [13] - **MEG**: Multiple devices have planned out - of - plan production cuts, providing short - term support. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. However, in the medium term, it is in a pattern of supply increase and demand decrease [14][15] 2. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members has decreased. The increase in heavy - truck sales in November supports the demand for commercial vehicle tires, but the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the fourth quarter is weak [16][17][18] 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range - bound operation. The inventory of butadiene is still at a relatively high level, and the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to operate in a short - term range [19][20][22] 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is weakly oscillating. The weekly output has increased, the factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend strength is weak [24][32][33] 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a unilateral decline, and the basis is passively positive. The upstream selling pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply may increase in the future, and the trend strength is neutral [34][35] 6. PP - The PP market is under upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and pellet materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, the supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the demand is weak, and the trend strength is neutral [36][37] 7. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short on caustic soda. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak. The cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [38][40][41] 8. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand [43][46][47] 9. Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the rigid - demand orders are still weak, and the trend strength is weak [49][50] 10. Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The short - term is weakly operating, and the 01 contract has high supply pressure in the medium term. In 2026, the fundamentals may improve marginally in the first quarter, and the trend strength is weak [52][55][56] 11. Urea - The urea market is oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory index during the day. The demand has improved temporarily, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure at 1700 yuan/ton and the lower support at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [57][58][59] 12. Styrene - The styrene market is in short - term shock. The short - term pure benzene market is oscillating at the bottom, and the supply pressure of styrene is not large. The port inventory is slightly decreasing [60][61] 13. Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general. The trend strength is weak [64][65] 14. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is under pressure. The trend strength is neutral [67][71] - **Propylene**: The supply has an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is weak [67][71] 15. PVC - The PVC market is weakly oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is under pressure. The short - term is not advisable to chase short, but the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [75][76] 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The market has weakened again, and the center of the disk has continued to move down [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market is in a narrow - range shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [78] 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) market is oscillating. The 2602 contract may experience price increases in January, but the high price is difficult to sustain. The 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling at high levels, and the trend strength is neutral [80][90][91] 18. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: There is medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee at high levels. The futures are weakly adjusted, and the spot price is mostly stable [93][94] - **Bottle Chip**: There is medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee at high levels. The upstream raw material futures are weakly oscillating, and the factory price is partially reduced [93][94] 19. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the paper mill's order - receiving situation is general [96][97][98] 20. Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weak in December but may improve after January [101][102]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：USDA 报告平淡，盘面低位震荡 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 12 月 9 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中国需求担忧及南美大豆丰产，大豆跌至一个多月最低。北京德润林 2025 年 12 月 10 日消息：周二，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，因为市场仍担心中国对 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4089 | +5（+0.12%） 4092 | +6（+0.15%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2763 | -30（-1.07%） 2752 -19 | （-0.69%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1087.75 | -6.0（-0.55%） | | | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Pressure is gradually emerging [2][11]. - Lead: The increase in domestic inventories has pressured prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range; Alumina: It is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy: It is under downward pressure [2][20]. - Platinum: It has broken through the trading range, and close attention should be paid to the previous high [2][23]. - Palladium: The bottom is continuously rising [2][23]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, but the gaming contradictions remain unchanged; Stainless steel: The supply - demand situation continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic has been strengthened [2][27]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D showed an increase of 0.80%, while Comex Gold 2512 and London Gold Spot decreased by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T + D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot all showed increases, with Shanghai Silver 2512 rising by 1.94% and Comex Silver 2512 by 2.21%. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were different degrees of changes. ETF positions and inventories also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes [4][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold and silver both have a trend strength of 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2.02% and 1.76% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's copper ore imports increased in November [8][10]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper has a trend strength of 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 0.92%, while LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [11]. - **News**: China and the US should expand cooperation, and the US approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc has a trend strength of 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.98% and 0.52% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high [15]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead has a trend strength of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 0.40%, while LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including US employment data, Bank of Japan's stance, and international dialogues [18]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin has a trend strength of 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For aluminum, the closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME Aluminum 3M showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and inventory changes [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The "shadow Fed chairman" hinted at interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [22]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend strength of 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of platinum and palladium in different markets showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump mentioned tariff reduction and interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [26]. - **Trend Strength**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend strength of 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless steel's main contract showed changes, and there were also changes in various industry - related data such as prices, spreads, and profits [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a subsidy for Russian imports, and there were policy changes in Indonesia's mining industry. The Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of interest rate cuts [27][30]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend strength of 0 [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon iron is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to information disturbances on the supply side [1]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotes remain firm [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2603: closing price 5462, up 18 from the previous trading day, trading volume 245,113, open interest 270,595 [1]. - Silicon iron 2605: closing price 5416, up 10 from the previous trading day, trading volume 21,426, open interest 66,909 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2603: closing price 5732, down 4 from the previous trading day, trading volume 259,055, open interest 282,351 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2605: closing price 5772, down 4 from the previous trading day, trading volume 84,496, open interest 163,391 [1]. - **Spot Data** - Silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia: price 5120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia: price 5510 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese ore Mn44 block: price 43.5 yuan/ton - degree [1]. - Semi - coke small material in Shenmu: price 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data** - Silicon iron (spot - 03 futures): basis - 342 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon (spot - 03 futures): basis - 222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Silicon iron 2603 - 2605 spread: 46 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon 2603 - 2605 spread: - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon 2603 - silicon iron 2603 spread: 270 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 spread: 356 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 9, for 72 silicon iron, prices in Shaanxi were 5050 - 5100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Qinghai 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. For 75 silicon iron, prices in Shaanxi were 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. Silicon iron FOB: 72 was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), 75 was 1090 - 1120 dollars/ton (down 10 - 20 dollars/ton). Silicon manganese 6517 was quoted at 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in the north and 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton in the south [2]. - United Mining (CML) announced its January 2026 quotation for China, with Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18% Australian lump at 5.0 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month. Comilog announced its January 2026 quotation for Gabon lump for China at 4.7 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month [2][3]. - Hegang's December silicon iron inquiry price was 5600 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from November's price, with a quantity of 2750 tons, up 34 tons from November. A large Hebei steel group's December silicon manganese procurement was 14700 tons, down 1300 tons from November, and the December inquiry price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from November's price [5]. - Hengyang Steel Pipe finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5700 yuan/ton (acceptance), the same as the previous round, with a quantity of 200 tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Silicon iron trend intensity: 0 - Manganese silicon trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, 2 means most bullish [4].

Group 1: Hot News - In December, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 4.253 billion bushels, unchanged from November; the expected ending stock is 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 302 million bushels and unchanged from November; the expected yield per acre is 53 bushels, also unchanged from November [2] - Argentina's economic minister announced a reduction in soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and a cut in the export tax of soybean by - products from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum were also lowered [2] - On December 9, key coking enterprises from various regions held a market analysis meeting to discuss the supply - demand pattern and price trends of the coke market [2] - On December 9, it was reported that a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established. It aims to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities in the industry [3] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include lithium carbonate, coking coal, live pigs, silver, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: the precious metals sector had a 30.06% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.61%, and the oilseeds and oils sector with 8.81% [4] - Changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days are presented, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, grains, and chemicals [5] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes - For equity assets, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.37% and a monthly increase of 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.29% and a monthly decline of 1.64% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.12% and a monthly increase of 0.04% [6] - Among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, and London spot gold had a 59.67% increase in the past year [6] Group 4: Major Commodity Trends - Graphs show the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, and LME copper, as well as the ratios between gold and oil, and copper and gold [7]