聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 23 日 股指期货：阶段性扰动阶段，大趋势不变 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周消息面事件较多，包括经济数据、LPR 发布，陆家嘴论坛、美联储议息会 议召开等。但最终市场走势下行，我们认为核心驱动在于，中东再生战事，陆家嘴论坛政策以行业政策为 主，因此在国内驱动缺乏利多，外部利空增加的环境下，行情重心回落。风格方面，在外部风险增加环境 下，风险偏好回落对小微盘股的扰动更为明显，成长风格跌幅更大。 近期市场对于小微盘交易拥挤担忧程度较大，而消息面因地缘扰动加剧，内部对冲有限，导致资金顺 势出现获利了结动作，带来行情的调整。对于当下的外部扰动消息，周末似乎仍有潜在升级可能，不过， 就像贸易战，对地缘事件的预测如同水中捞月，因此重预测不如重应对。我们认为基于当前的宏观基本面 趋势来看，今年股市依然是依靠拉估值带动的震荡走升行情。不过，目前市场估值并没有较高的安全边 际，小微盘的拥挤交易一旦转向，也容易出现一定的调整。因此我们认为后期行情上，继续保持多头心 态，但是须结合行情调整幅度（技术面 ...

以下文章来源于培风客 ，作者Odysseus 首先我们要明白，现在的世界就处在战争和混乱的威胁当中，冷战和热战的概率都并不低，我能理解 很多朋友总是希望一切能好起来，但这可能还只是一个开始。也许还需要一段不短的时间，我们才能 回到以前的那种和平年代。我也很希望可以说，这个世界依然岁月静好，但现实并非如此。 在今天美国时间下午的袭击结束之后，我读了很多解读，我觉得虽然我并非专家，但有很多地方可以 分享。 在开始之前，我想说的一点是，政治尤其是地缘政治没有对错，对的人可以被杀全家，错的人可以活 很久，这都经常发生，所以 不要用道德和是非去判断地缘政治 。就像布林肯之前说的， 你要么在餐 桌上，要么在菜单上。 一个简单的框架 让我们先从一个框架开始，十多年前在我还很年轻的时候，我有一次在中东遇到了一位外交官，当时 中东已经非常混乱了，阿拉伯之春对每个人都造成了影响，而且比较搞笑的是，阿拉伯之春最开始的 设想和最后的结果是相反的，我很疑惑，我向他请教说，有没有一个简单的框架，可以让我了解中东 的局势和情况。我得到了一个地缘政治101框架中东版本，我觉得非常好用。 在中东，地区里面主要有三种势力， 宗教，军队和官僚 。 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货锌周报 需求深入淡季 20250622 作者：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 从业资格号：F03100622 0769-22116880 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期限市场 4 库存端 5 供给端 6 需求端 7 其它 周度观点及热点资讯 周度观点 u 宏观：在向好的通胀、就业数据，以及依旧模糊的关税政策中，美联储6月议息会议依旧选择"按兵不动" ，会后美联储 官员提出后续通胀恶化的可能性，仍保持年内降息2次的预期。近期地缘政治扰动下避险情绪推动资金流入能源市场，大 宗商品走势得到一定提振。 u 供应：原料方面，海外二季度主流矿山产量表现较好，新投产矿山产出增长，全球锌精矿处于放量阶段；成品方面，下 周供应有增量预期炼厂为：山西耿翔科技有限公司，计划月底前恢复生产；云南云铜锌业股份有限公司当前生产趋于稳 定，长单已经开始招标，供货数量7000吨/月；后续供应有减量预期的炼厂为：广西华锡集团股份有限公司，从减产检修 扩大到停产检修，预计本月影响达到3000吨；中色锌业、白银有色等，计划7月开始年度检修。 u 需求：需求淡季持续深入 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The recent actions taken by the United States have intensified tensions, and the current situation may not be the worst yet [1] - The motivations behind these actions are complex, involving both economic structural issues and political interests of certain groups seeking to enhance their influence [2] - The U.S. measures have led to significant volatility in international markets, affecting stock prices and commodity prices, which has increased operational uncertainties for businesses [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. actions have contributed to a sustained increase in international tensions, prompting countries to reassess their relationships with the U.S. and complicating regional alliances [6] - There has been a notable increase in military activities in certain regions, leading neighboring countries to enhance their defense capabilities [6] - The erosion of trust in international relations is making it increasingly difficult to rebuild confidence, which could hinder globalization and reduce long-term capital flows [7] Group 3: Long-term Risks and Predictions - The ongoing hardline stance of the U.S. may exacerbate global tensions and lead to a broader restructuring of supply chains, potentially limiting progress in developing countries [8] - The potential for conflicts in certain regions to escalate poses a significant challenge to the existing international order [8]

市场终于跌了…不过市场跌不多，现在的买盘还是很强！板块之间的变化会比大盘的变化更多一些，机会也一样更多些。 我们对于本次股市出现短暂下跌，是乐观且期待的，因为这样，短暂的机会才会出现。但是我们还在等待的趋势性机会，可能还是不会有。 在今天这次的展望里，我们会给出对于目前市场上的几个主流资产的观点看法。 大家好，我是老丁 看一下本周整体的大盘情况，本周上证指数下跌0.51%，创业板指下跌1.66%，恒生科技指数下跌2.03%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，纳斯达克上涨0.72%（截止 周五盘前）。 现在市场上最值得关注的就是，茅台为首的白酒下跌，寒武纪为首的芯片阴跌，泡泡玛特为首的新消费回调，还有地缘政治带来的原油上涨。（因为所属 不同市场，我们会在下文详细表述这些） 这也是在下周如果要看机会需要着重关注的地方。其实这种机会，都是点状的，目前市场上没有发现趋势性机会….由此，我们也只能在暂时捉不到大鱼 的时候，也看看小鱼，哪怕不参与，验证一下观点也好。 刚过去的这一周，美联储公布了利率决议，表示不降息。现在利率还是维持在高位…根据历史经验，当美联储过去有过大的货币政策，居民和企业都大幅 借贷，然后后续货币政策从宽松又 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US released no significant data. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. Geopolitical news has led to significant asset fluctuations. A-shares fell on Thursday due to the lack of economic利好 policies from the financial meeting and the Middle East geopolitical turmoil. The subsequent trend of A-shares may either retrace to the gap on April 10 or continue to move sideways [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US released no significant data overnight. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, causing market uncertainty. The US dollar index closed down, US Treasury yields at both short and long ends declined, gold rose slightly, crude oil opened lower and closed down, the US stock market was closed, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened low and closed down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.36%. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sector among the primary sectors rose, while textile and apparel, beauty care, light industry manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals led the decline. There were 716 rising stocks and 4,643 falling stocks in the entire market. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will accelerate the review of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [5] 1.3 Important News - The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, with increasing internal differences in the voting ratio. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Israel and Iran have been in conflict for seven days, with various parties expressing different stances. There are also news about tariffs, the release of a new index by China Securities Index, a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a notice from the Personal Insurance Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight, the US stock market was closed, and the trend of crude oil prices indicates the continued impact of Middle East geopolitics. A-shares fell on high volume yesterday, similar to the trend on May 23. In the short term, a double-top pattern seems to be forming. The subsequent trend is expected to be either a retracement to the gap on April 10 or continued sideways movement [2][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as relevant charts showing their basis and inter - contract spreads [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of major stock indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including their current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation metrics. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes and presents relevant valuation and trading volume charts [36][37][40] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates to reflect the market's liquidity situation [52][53][54]