上半年结束，又到了总结基金公司主动权益投资业绩的时刻。 投资是一场持久赛，最近10年市场牛熊交替中，哪些基金公司跑在前列？大中型基金公司中 是谁独占鳌头？最近5年，哪家公司踏对市场节奏？最近3年波动行情之下，哪家公司抗风险 能力更强？在2025年上半年震荡上行的A股市场中，又是哪家公司表现最为亮眼？ 国泰海通证券日前发布基金公司权益类基金绝对收益排行榜，揭晓上述谜底。 十年"王者" 万家、大成、红塔红土位居前三 A股市场10年行情起起伏伏，究竟哪家公司是十年"王者"？ 从市场表现来看，10年前的2015年，A股市场演绎"冰火两重天"，上半年是火爆的大牛市， 下半年A股由牛转熊，急剧调整，2016年初更是出现熔断。随后三四年行情整体平淡，直到 2019年开始出现结构性牛市，科技、医药、消费等赛道表现突出，然而2022年以来市场陷入 震荡格局，直到去年9月24日政策暖风吹拂之下，A股市场逐渐回暖，今年以来AI、人形机器 人、创新药、新消费等领域轮番表现。 一批基金公司因抓住市场机会取得了不错的业绩。国泰海通证券数据显示，2015年7月1日至 2025年6月30日期间，万家基金位居近十年权益类基金绝对收益榜榜首，近 ...

值得一提的是，港股核心科技板块在经过近一个季度的调整后，估值已处于相对低位，未来上涨空间可 期。截至2025年6月30日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数的最新估值（PETTM）仅20.10倍，处 于指数2020年7月27日发布以来约8.51%的估值分位点，即当前估值低于指数发布以来91%以上的时间。 一旦有利好事件作为催化剂，板块高成长、高弹性的特质或将带来强劲的上涨动力。目前，情绪面改善 和流动性充裕为港股科技板块下一阶段的上涨奠定了重要基础，仅待相关科技叙事的主题催化。 数据显示，6月南下资金重新开始大幅净流入港股市场，单月净流入额为803亿港元。截至2025年6月30 日，南下资金累计净流入港股市场7312亿港元，相当于2024年全年净流入规模的91%，且远超前几年同 期水平。南下资金无疑是本轮港股行情重要增量资金来源。 7月3日早盘，港股三大指数高开低走，恒生科技指数一度跌近1%，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随 指数下行，持仓股中，金山软件、阿里健康、阿里巴巴、美团等领跌，蔚来、中芯国际等领涨。 方正证券认为，南下资金仍在持续加速流入港股市场，流动性环境整体较为友好。今年南下资金主 ...

Group 1 - The average return of active equity funds in the first half of the year reached 7.36%, with over 70% of funds achieving positive returns [1][2] - Notable performers include funds focused on the North Exchange and the pharmaceutical sector, with top funds achieving returns of 82.45% and 75.18% respectively [2] - There is a significant performance disparity among active equity funds, with the best and worst performers showing a difference of over 103% in returns [3] Group 2 - Analysts express a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market in the second half of the year, anticipating a potential upward trend amid easing tariff concerns and improved risk appetite [4] - Structural investment opportunities are expected to emerge in technology, new consumption, and stable dividend sectors, with a focus on areas like AI applications and semiconductor industries [5] - The market sentiment has improved significantly as the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully surpassed the 3400-point mark, although caution is advised regarding crowded trades in certain sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025 is optimistic, driven by domestic growth-stabilizing policies and a gradual economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple fund companies, including Huabao and Ping An, are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, citing supportive policies and economic recovery [1][2]. - The market is expected to show a trend of oscillating upward, with liquidity improving due to the gradual implementation of monetary easing policies [2][3]. - The overall sentiment is that the market will maintain resilience, with structural opportunities emerging in various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends, which are seen as essential for China's development [4][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is compared to the semiconductor industry a few years ago, indicating significant market potential and policy support [6]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are highlighted as areas of continued focus, with expectations of demand growth and technological advancements [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Investment Approaches - Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategy of "deep digging for Alpha while waiting for Beta," focusing on structural opportunities within the market [4][6]. - The emphasis is on identifying safe and strategic industries that align with government policies and emerging trends [4][6]. - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors that support domestic consumption and innovation, with a particular focus on new energy and AI-driven technologies [4][5].

Group 1 - The A-share market in the first half of 2025 experienced significant volatility, leading to a stark performance divergence among private equity firms, with some capitalizing on new trends while others faced losses [1] - Notable private equity firms like Tongben Investment achieved substantial positive returns due to the rise of the new consumption sector, shifting their focus from "big consumption" to "new consumption" since November 2024 [1][2] - The emergence of new consumption is fundamentally a supply-side transformation, driven by factors such as high demand in niche markets and a generational shift towards younger consumers who prioritize emotional value in products [2] Group 2 - The first half of 2025 was characterized by wide fluctuations and structural opportunities in the stock market, with many investors struggling to navigate the volatility and identify long-term trends [2][3] - Key time points included the "DeepSeek moment" before the Spring Festival and overseas disturbances in early April, which influenced the technology sector's revaluation [3] - Some private equity firms reflected on their low allocation to the banking and insurance sectors, which performed well in June, indicating a need for increased research focus on these areas [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead, private equity firms remain optimistic about the second half of the year, focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividend assets [3][4] - Long-term funds are expected to anchor on fundamentals while speculative funds will seek out previously stagnant sectors for quick rotations, suggesting a complementary market dynamic rather than a zero-sum game [4] - Specific investment directions include a continued emphasis on "technology + consumption," with an increased focus on leading companies in the new consumption space and a broader definition of the technology sector [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a consolidation pattern on July 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3454.79 points, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10412.63 points, down 0.61% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 137.69 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 90 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Ocean Economy Sector - Since mid-June, new economic themes in the A-share market have shown a strong rotation, with sectors like trendy retail, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI computing power performing well [2] - The ocean economy concept emerged as the strongest market focus, with several related stocks hitting the daily limit up, following the Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasizing high-quality development of the ocean economy [2] - The government work report this year highlighted the importance of developing the ocean economy and included "deep-sea technology" as a key focus for future industrial development [2] Ocean Economy Development - Recent analysis indicates rapid development in China's ocean economy, with regions like Shanghai, Guangdong, and Qingdao increasing support for emerging industries such as ocean renewable energy and marine biomedicine [3] - Traditional ocean industries are steadily growing, while new sectors like marine engineering equipment and ocean power are emerging as significant economic drivers [3] - Deep-sea technology is identified as a critical pillar for ocean resource development, encompassing deep-sea materials, equipment manufacturing, and digital applications [3] Technology Sector Trends - The technology sector remains a structural mainline in the A-share market, with new technology and consumption themes gaining traction and improving trading sentiment [4] - The market is experiencing a transition from previous leaders like banks and small-cap stocks to new hotspots, indicating a shift in investment focus [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market has room for growth in July, driven by continuous industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates [4] Growth and Investment Focus - The market's risk appetite has improved since June, favoring growth assets, as reflected in the strong performance of indices like the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 [5] - Although high-dividend sectors still hold long-term value, they may face short-term pressure as the market shifts focus to performance factors during the semi-annual report trading phase [5] - The ongoing strength of growth assets and active trading funds are expected to support market risk appetite [5]

【导读】基金公司主动权益中长期投资业绩大比拼 中国基金报记者 方丽 孙晓辉 上半年结束，又到了总结基金公司主动权益投资业绩的时刻。 投资是一场持久赛，最近10年市场牛熊交替中，哪些基金公司跑在前列？大中型基金公司中 是谁独占鳌头？最近5年，哪家公司踏对市场节奏？最近3年波动行情之下，哪家公司抗风险 能力更强？在2025年上半年震荡上行的A股市场中，又是哪家公司表现最为亮眼？ | 天弘 | 57.50 | 24/81 | | --- | --- | --- | | 汇丰富信 | 54.25 | 25/81 | | 国投瑞银 | 53.29 | 26/81 | | 受庫 | 52.69 | 27/81 | | 前海开源 | 52.54 | 28/81 | | 长信 | 52.41 | 29/81 | | 国联安 | 51.26 | 30/81 | | 国泰 | 51.00 | 31/81 | | 建信 | 50.29 | 32/81 | | 鵬や | 47.11 | 33/81 | | 宏利 | 47.08 | 34/81 | | 南方 | 47.02 | 35/81 | | 衣银汇理 | 46.31 | 36/ ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the convertible bond market and its performance in the context of the broader equity market, particularly focusing on the Chinese market dynamics and external geopolitical factors [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The convertible bond market is experiencing a structural shift due to favorable external conditions, such as easing geopolitical tensions and supportive domestic policies, which have led to a bullish outlook for July [1][5]. - **Convertible Bonds Performance**: Convertible bonds have shown better resilience and upside potential compared to common stocks, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where funds are increasingly chasing yield [1][4][5]. - **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, and new consumption areas like dairy and beverages, which are expected to have strong earnings visibility [1][6][11]. - **Banking Sector Trends**: There is a notable acceleration in the exit of bank convertible bonds, with significant amounts expected to flow back into the pure bond market or into new bottom-fishing opportunities [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Convertible Bond Ratings**: In the first half of the year, 37 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, but the impact was manageable, with most experiencing limited price declines [7]. - **Solar Industry Outlook**: The solar sector is currently facing increased competition but is expected to stabilize as leading companies reduce production and consolidate, making it a potential bottom-fishing opportunity [8]. - **Investment Strategies**: Strategies such as downshift speculation and YTM replacement are highlighted as viable approaches for investors, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [3][27]. - **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Hua Zheng Co.**: The company has turned profitable with a focus on high-frequency substrates and advanced materials, indicating a positive short-term outlook [12]. - **Guo Li Co.**: Expected revenue growth of 50% to 100% due to strong demand in military and semiconductor sectors [13]. - **Shui Yang Co.**: The company is leveraging both proprietary and agency brands to drive growth in the high-end beauty market [14]. - **Hua You Co.**: Positioned well in the new energy vehicle sector, benefiting from strong demand and integrated supply chain advantages [15][17]. - **Jing Wang Electronics**: The company is gaining traction in the GPU supply chain, indicating a positive performance outlook despite industry pressures [18]. - **Anji Technology**: The company is seeing significant growth in semiconductor materials, bolstered by partnerships with major players like TSMC [19]. - **Hang Yu Co.**: The company is well-positioned in the military sector with a solid order book and improving margins [20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for the convertible bond market and specific sectors remains optimistic, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and sector-specific growth opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on high-growth areas with strong earnings visibility while being mindful of potential risks associated with credit and market volatility [1][5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].

展望下半年，多位专家对第一财经记者表示，考虑到外部环境带来的出口不确定性，以及去年三、四季度的高基数影响，为实现全年经济增长目标，下半年 宏观政策还需要进一步加力，加快财政支出，降准降息仍有空间，并期待在稳定股市、楼市、人民币汇率等方面出台更多增量政策。 随着稳增长政策的密集落地见效，中国经济经历关税风波后迅速回稳，展现出强大韧性。 多家外资机构也从不相信中国经济能实现5%增速，到近期纷纷上调了中国经济增长的预期。第一财经记者发现，外资机构大多都看好中国的科技发展和消 费增长，认为这些领域蕴含巨大增长潜力，将成为推动中国经济持续回升向好的内生动能。 （6月30日，在武汉格蓝若智能技术股份有限公司，华中科技大学硕士研究生林韦弦启动"劳动者"系列人形机器人。图片来源：新华社） 最新发布的制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数、中小企业发展指数、税收数据等也表明，中国经济顶住压力后运行平稳，长期向好的基 本面没有改变。 为了稳投资稳经济，更加积极的财政政策正靠前发力。7月1日，财政部公开了2025年第三季度国债发行有关安排，三季度共计将发行11只超长期特别国债。 其中有4只超长期特别国债发行时间有所提前 ...