投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250708 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普新关税引发避险情绪，国内股市缩量调整 海外方面，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等"关税生效日期从 7 月 9 日延至 8 月 1 日，并 正式致函 14 国通知大幅加税，日韩商品将被征收 25%关税，惩罚性措施不与此前汽车、钢 铝关税叠加，信函暗示仍留谈判空间，同时警告报复将遭对等回应。市场风险偏好显著回落， 美股下挫近 1%；10 年期美债利率回升至 4.38%；美元指数盘中最高升至 97.6，表现强势。 避险情绪推动金价 V 型反弹，铜价走弱收跌，油价收涨。关税博弈再度升温，市场敏感度上 升，短期关注日韩等被加征对象的应对，总体而言扰动幅度预计将远小于 4 月。 国内：经济基本面延续"低通胀，弱复苏"格局，产业优化政策主导市场，近期将公布 二季度经济数据以及召开关于经济主题的政治局会议。A 股缩量调整，两市成交额回落至 1.23 万亿，风格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff adjustments by the Trump administration reflect a continuation of a hardline trade policy while also indicating a tactical shift towards negotiating under pressure [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has issued new tariffs targeting 14 countries, with Japan facing a 24% tariff and South Korea a 25% tariff, breaking the expectation of tariff exemptions for traditional allies [1] - The delay of the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1 provides a 20-day buffer for trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Japan and South Korea were chosen as initial targets due to their significant export volumes to the U.S., which can create immediate market impacts [1] - The strategy aims to send a message to other countries that no one is exempt from U.S. tariffs, enhancing America's psychological advantage in negotiations [1] Group 3: Characteristics of the Tariff Strategy - The tariff strategy includes three main characteristics: breaking the ally boundary by weaponizing trade, setting flexible negotiation periods to force concessions, and applying differentiated tax rates based on each country's economic structure [3] - This approach is described as a "carrot and stick" method, with the potential to reshape global trade dynamics as the August 1 deadline approaches [3]

本次公开课将探讨： ↓↓↓ 活动议程 13：30-14：00 签到 14：00-15：00 主题分享： 关税博弈：多维影响与战略前瞻 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院，金融学教授 15：00-15：30 Q&A 预 约 席 位 市值管理+供应链金融：对冲关税风险的双重利器 科技股估值重构：地缘风险定价与国产替代机遇 汇率对冲+数字人民币：破解关税杀伤力的双重引擎 行业轮动策略：内需驱动与政策红利下的防御性配置 债券市场对冲：利率互换与气候债券的合规套利 时间：7月12日（周六）下午 13:30 地址：北京市朝阳区东三环路1号环球金融中心 朱宁 教授 朱宁教授现任上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授。朱宁教授曾任清华大学讲席教授、美国加 州大学金融学终身教授、早稻田大学访问教授。2008-2010年度，朱宁教授还曾担任雷曼兄弟和野村 证券高管，其所带领的团队在多项机构投资者评选中名列前茅。 朱宁教授的研究领域包括行为金融学、中国宏观经济与金融市场，卖空、破产与重组、公司财务与收 购兼并。迄今已在Review of Financial Studies，Journal of Finance，Management Sc ...

铜价小幅回调，政策、贸易、供需博弈，铜价谁主沉浮？后市该如何看待？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

"大而美"法案的支持者声称，法案将通过企业回流与投资增长重塑美国经济竞争力。不过，当减税红利 被关税成本抵消，企业实际承担的合规成本与供应链中断损失，可能远超税收优惠。更关键的是，以邻 为壑的政策必然引发反制——欧盟已酝酿针对性关税，新兴市场则在加速"去美元化"布局。这种对抗性 循环一旦形成，全球经济增长的整体蛋糕将持续萎缩，最终反噬美国企业的海外利润根基。 本届美国政府就职以来推出的种种争议政策，反映出美国国内经济治理失序的困境。这种政策变动正对 世界经济带来多重冲击。 首先，多边贸易体系遭遇信任危机。当美国以国内法案为由单方面调整关税，其行为违背了世界贸易组 织（WTO）框架下的互惠原则。欧盟、日本等传统盟友被迫重新评估与美国的贸易关系，新兴经济体 则加速推进区域自贸协定以规避系统性风险。全球供应链从效率优先转向安全优先的重构进程，因美国 政策不可预测性而显著提速。 其次，美元信用基础面临持续侵蚀。法案再度提升债务上限，虽然暂时避免债务违约，却让美国国债规 模突破40万亿美元。当财政纪律让位于政治周期，各国央行对美元资产的长期信心必然受损。历史表 明，主权货币的全球地位不仅依赖市场，更需要货币发行国的财政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shift in the EU's stance towards the US, particularly in response to Trump's tariff threats, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stating that a final agreement before the July 9 deadline is "impossible" [1][3][5] - Wang Yi's visit to Europe has been pivotal in changing the EU's approach, emphasizing that there are no fundamental conflicts between China and Europe, which has resonated positively with the EU amid US pressure [3][5][9] - The EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff list worth €21 billion and holds a "tariff bomb" list valued at €95 billion, indicating a strong response to US tariffs [5][9][12] Group 2 - The article discusses the growing discontent among traditional US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, towards US trade policies, suggesting a potential shift in alliances [7][9] - The EU is adopting a strategy of "waiting for change" in negotiations with the US, indicating a tactical approach to leverage its position [9][12] - The evolving dynamics between China and the EU suggest a potential for deeper cooperation in areas like digital economy and green energy, contrasting with the US's "America First" policy, which is pushing allies away [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced the elimination of wheat export tariffs effective July 9, 2025, marking the first removal of such restrictions since their implementation in 2021, which is expected to significantly impact global grain pricing and agricultural trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The removal of the wheat export tariff is a response to domestic pressures, including protests from farmers against high tariffs and the need to manage a record expected production of 84.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season [3][4]. - Prior to this adjustment, the wheat export tariff threshold had increased from 17,000 rubles per ton to 18,000 rubles per ton, with a drastic reduction in tariffs observed in July [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The immediate market reaction included a 1.2% drop in wheat futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, while European grain traders adjusted their procurement strategies in the Black Sea region [3]. - Countries such as India and Egypt accelerated their forward contract locking in response to the policy change, indicating a shift in international purchasing behavior [3]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The zero-tariff policy may pressure competitors like Ukraine in the global market, potentially leading to increased agricultural subsidies in the U.S. through legislative measures [3][4]. - The elimination of the ruble-based tariff system could encourage a shift towards local currency settlements in commodity trading, posing a challenge to the dollar-dominated international trade framework [4]. - Historical precedents suggest that similar policy changes could lead to significant market volatility, as seen with a 280% surge in corn exports following a tariff adjustment in 2024 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of market expectations and the importance of data analysis in identifying investment opportunities amidst apparent economic crises, particularly focusing on the recent decline of the US dollar and the behavior of institutional investors. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline of the US dollar is attributed to a crisis not seen in 47 years, but it is suggested that this situation is more about expectation games than actual economic downturns [1] - Ordinary investors are focused on shrinking import and export data, while institutional investors are quietly increasing their positions in technology stock options [3] Group 2: Data-Driven Insights - A case study in the semiconductor sector illustrates how quantitative systems can detect institutional "shakeout" patterns, which may appear alarming but are actually strategic moves by investors [5] - In April, signals of speculative buying in the new energy sector were noted, indicating that what seems like chaotic market movements can actually reflect strategic plays between institutions and retail investors [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Market Predictions - Speculation around the next Federal Reserve chairperson is compared to the political turmoil during the UK prime minister change in 2022, suggesting that market reactions may not align with traditional views of political instability [9] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring implied volatility in the options market to gauge market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's decisions [9] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to build their own "data dashboards" that include indicators of capital dynamics, institutional holdings, and market sentiment to better navigate the market [10] - Historical analysis of the 2008 financial crisis reveals that the most profitable strategies were not necessarily those that bet against the market but rather those that understood the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion [11] Group 5: Importance of Timing in Data Analysis - Significant market turning points often leave traces in data, but patience is required to confirm these signals, as seen in the current focus on the US dollar index and changes in open interest at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [12]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" by the US, Japan, India, and Australia aims to create an "Indo-Pacific Rare Earth Alliance" to counter China's dominance in the rare earth sector, especially in light of China's recent export control measures [1][4]. Group 1: Rare Earth Importance - Rare earth elements are crucial for modern industries, playing a key role in sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing, electronics miniaturization, aerospace materials, and military precision-guided weapons [3]. - China holds approximately 52 million tons of proven rare earth reserves, nearly half of the global total, and produced 210,000 tons in 2023, accounting for nearly 70% of global production [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The "Indo-Pacific Rare Earth Alliance" is a response to China's strengthened export controls, which are framed by the Quad countries as a national security concern due to over-reliance on a single country's resources [4][6]. - Despite having some rare earth reserves, countries like the US and Australia face significant challenges in achieving self-sufficiency and meeting the alliance's demands, with estimates suggesting the US may need at least ten years to reduce its dependence on China [6]. Group 3: Internal Challenges within the Alliance - The alliance is not without internal conflicts, as the US, Japan, Australia, and India have differing positions on trade, defense spending, and regional issues, which could undermine the alliance's cohesion and effectiveness [6]. Group 4: China's Response - In response to the challenges posed by the "Indo-Pacific Rare Earth Alliance," China is implementing strict export controls and enhancing its domestic rare earth industry through consolidation and technological innovation [8]. - China is also expanding its overseas rare earth resource partnerships to strengthen its position in the global supply chain [8].

投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 正信期货铜周报20250707 研究员：王艳红 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 内容要点 宏观层面：周内铜价冲高回落，符合判断，宏观层面驱动有限，降息乐观预期略受 打压。美国经济"硬数据"仍然有韧性，促使美联储7月行动概率下降，同时近期关税 博弈重回视野，美国设置的7月9日时限到期，新一轮关税冲击导致宏观情绪承压。国 内方面制造业数据略有回升，但连续三个月处于荣枯线下方，在经济略有企稳基础上 ， "反内卷"行动逐渐纳入日程。 产业基本面：年中长单谈判以0美元落地，冶炼厂长单盈利能力大幅受挫，当前国内 产量维持高位，硫酸与副产品利润勉强弥补亏损，但利润结构极不健康。需求一端来 看，国内淡季逐渐加深，现货升水高位回落，但受内外价差影响，国内出口量增多导 致累库预期不强；LME逼仓问题缓解，亚洲仓库库存增加，升水下滑。 策略：关税博弈阶段，宏观预期或承压。需要关注7月9日附近关于关税预期的博弈 ，尤其是对铜232调查 ...