Market Overview - On June 17, the main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,480 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton, while the main contract for nickel closed at 118,570 CNY/ton, down 1,120 CNY/ton, indicating a slight decline in stainless steel futures prices and an increase in bearish market sentiment [2]. - Domestic stainless steel prices mainly decreased, with 304 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade remaining stable [2]. Price Changes by Steel Mills - Taigang's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 15,600 CNY, down 50 CNY; 304/No.1 (3.0-12mm) at 14,800 CNY; and 430/2B (2.0mm) at 9,800 CNY [2]. - Zhangpu's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 13,600 CNY, while Dongfang Special Steel's 304/No.1 (4-8mm) is at 12,500 CNY and 316L/No.1 (4-8mm) at 23,550 CNY [2]. Market Performance - In Wuxi, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade also down by 50 CNY/ton, while 430 grade remained stable [2]. - In Foshan, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade stable [2]. Raw Material Prices - On June 17, the price for nickel plate in the Yangtze River region was 120,100 CNY/ton, down 900 CNY/ton; high-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C1000) in Sichuan was 8,050 CNY/50 base tons, unchanged; and molybdenum iron (FeMo60) in Henan was 246,000 CNY/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The stainless steel futures market showed a weak trend, with the K-line closing as a small bearish candle, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The next trading day for the 2508 contract is expected to range between 12,550 CNY and 12,400 CNY [6].

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 转债信用风波应对指南 [Table_Summary] 时至 2025 年 6 月，转债市场再度来到关键阶段——转债信用事 件的高发节点。去年 5 月末突发的信用风波历历在目，一年之 后的当下，广大投资者的转债参与思路依然不可避免受其影 响。基于此，本文将重点回顾 2024 年转债信用风波的前因后 果，并试图从中寻找出应对方案。 ►以史为鉴，重温 2024 年信用风波 自 2024 年 5 月中下旬起，问询函等弱资质个券信用事件集中出 现，转债信用风波开始酝酿，随后 6 月中下旬转债市场先后遭遇 光伏卖出及评级集中下调的冲击，信用风波大规模蔓延，7 月广 汇转债退市以及 8 月岭南转债违约则进一步延长了信用冲击。 总体来看，2024 年信用冲击是转债市场历史以来波及面最广的 一次。相比于转债绝对价格直观的冲击，弱资质个券的定价锚 进入缺失状态，更加使得投资者迷茫。 ►信用风波的本质及启示 信用风波的诱因：2024 年二、三季度转债市场趋弱，表观来 看是因为信用风险冲击，更深层次其实还是正股表现较弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the European shipping index futures experiencing a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in the shipping sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures opened at 2060.0 points, fluctuating between a high of 2064.0 points and a low of 1990.0 points, with a decline of 1.71% noted [1] - The overall market performance is characterized by weak sentiment and a downward trend in the European shipping index [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures suggests that the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel conflict, on the European shipping index is minimal, with price fluctuations driven more by market sentiment [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the 08 contract closely follows spot freight rates, with potential for rebound driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming price adjustments in July and August [1] - Jianxin Futures highlights strong resilience in European export demand and stable supply capacity, suggesting that price increases may be supported by fundamental factors if June prices stabilize [2]

风险 1、欧盟恢复俄气供应;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹备资金:3、排放上限弱化 | 图表1: 欧盟排放配额（EUA）最新拍卖行情信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 EUA拍卖量 | | | | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | (欧元/吨) (万吨) | | (欧元/吨) | | | (万欧元) | | 74.51 324. 55 | 2025-06-16 | 71. 39 | | 1. 35 | 24182 | | 160. 70 75. 36 | 2025-06-13 | 71. 39 | | 1.84 | 12110 | | 图表2: EUA拍卖价格走势-季节性图 | | | 图表3: EUA拍卖投标覆盖比-李节性图 | | | | ——2021 — 2022 ——2024 — 2024 — 2025 2021 — 2022 — 2023 — 2024 — 2024 — 2024 | 100 欧元/吨 | | | | -2025 | | which was and with a more of | | ...

Commodity Market - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) increased by $54.480, or 4.50%, reaching $1264.590 [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) rose by $17.700, or 1.73%, to $1042.450 [2] - Gold (COMEX) decreased by $24.800, or 0.72%, to $3428.400 [2] - Silver (COMEX) slightly increased by $0.045, or 0.12%, to $36.410 [2] Foreign Exchange Market - Euro to USD (EURUSD) rose by 0.43% to 1.160 [4] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) increased by 0.21% to 1.360 [4] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) decreased by 0.19% to 143.850 [4] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) increased by 0.76% to 0.654 [4] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) decreased by 0.21% to 0.810 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin (BTC) increased by $1164.620, or 1.10%, to $106758.630 [5] - Litecoin (LTC) rose by $1.300, or 1.51%, to $87.600 [5] - Ethereum (ETH) increased by $74.480, or 2.92%, to $2622.100 [5] - Ripple (XRP) rose by $0.089, or 4.13%, to $2.255 [5] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 0.015, or 0.38%, to 3.973 [7] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 0.013, or 0.32%, to 4.035 [8] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 0.003, or 0.07%, to 4.427 [8] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 0.009, or 0.18%, to 4.924 [8] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.552 [8] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond increased by 0.007, or 0.28%, to 2.543 [8] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond decreased by 0.013, or 0.40%, to 3.243 [8] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond decreased by 0.022, or 0.63%, to 3.478 [8] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond increased by 0.051, or 3.63%, to 1.457 [8]

专题报告 2025-06-16 铝：近期行情几个关注点 报告要点： 近期铝市场在国内外现货收紧和能源价格上涨等因素推动下，打破了一段时间以来的沉寂，沪 铝增仓上行，伦铝也录得一定的上涨。站在当前看，铝市场在多重因素影响下，预计波动仍较 大，未来行情存在几个需要注意的点：一是海外地缘局势引起的成本端变化；二是国内铝库存 变化及沪铝期货月差变化；三是美国加征铝关税后海外市场变化。 综合来看，中国和伦敦市场铝锭库存均处于低位，铝价向上弹性仍偏大，中东地缘局势升级忧 虑下能源价格存在进一步上涨的风险，铝价可能跟随冲高。不过考虑到国内现货需求转弱，以 及中期需求面临的下滑风险，沪铝挤仓风险趋于下降；海外铝供需取决于美国高铝价和需求之 间的博弈，如果美国需求较为刚性，则海外铝现货预计维持偏紧，而如果高铝价挤出了铝消费， 则美国以外铝供应将边际宽松，从而抑制铝价的上方空间。 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 铝 铝：近期行情几个关注点 近期铝市场在国内外现货收紧和能源价格上涨等因素推动下，打破了一段时间以 ...

Commodity Prices - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1232.990, increasing by 22.880 or 1.89% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1035.150, increasing by 10.400 or 1.01% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3465.300, increasing by 12.100 or 0.35% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.355, decreasing by 0.010 or 0.03% [2] Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) decreased by 0.12% to 1.153 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) decreased by 0.18% to 1.355 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) increased by 0.12% to 144.306 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.11% to 0.648 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) increased by 0.06% to 0.812 [3] Cryptocurrency Prices - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 105826.900, increasing by 232.890 or 0.22% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 86.940, increasing by 0.640 or 0.74% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2570.900, increasing by 23.280 or 0.91% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.178, increasing by 0.012 or 0.57% [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.958, unchanged [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 4.014, decreasing by 0.008 or 0.20% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.413, decreasing by 0.011 or 0.25% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.905, decreasing by 0.010 or 0.20% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.558, increasing by 0.006 or 0.13% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.536, increasing by 0.058 or 2.34% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.256, increasing by 0.072 or 2.26% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.487, increasing by 0.079 or 2.32% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.427, increasing by 1.49% [7]

当前，鸡蛋价格持续下行，蛋鸡养殖行业逐步陷入亏损困境。6月正值梅雨季，作为鸡蛋传统销售淡 季，却又临近中秋消费旺季，在这关键的时间节点，鸡蛋产业正经历深刻变革。为助力市场参与者精准 把握当下市场动态与未来走势，中泰期货于2025年5月27日—6月2日，对鸡蛋主产区开展专项调研。此 次调研路线覆盖北京、保定、衡水、晋中、运城、黄冈等地，调研结论如下： 第一，尽管2025年上半年鸡蛋市场行情低迷，蛋鸡养殖全口径核算持续亏损，但养殖主体补栏热情却逆 势上扬。来自种鸡企业的数据显示，今年1—4月商品代鸡苗销量同比增长20%，且粉鸡苗订单已排至9 月，直观反映出商品代蛋鸡养殖主体补栏积极性高涨。调研中，多位蛋商也表示，周边蛋鸡存栏量持续 增加，上半年补栏规模显著扩大。在市场低迷期补栏量不降反增的现象，或将对后续鸡蛋市场行情形成 下行压力。 第二，蛋鸡养殖逼近现金流亏损红线，高产鸡群成扭亏关键。当前行业亏损备受关注，调研数据显示， 按全周期综合成本核算，万只蛋鸡日亏损约500元。其中，现金流成本是衡量亏损严重性的核心指标， 若鸡蛋收入无法覆盖饲料成本，养殖户将面临资金压力。以河北产区为例，截至5月底，蛋鸡养殖现金 流成本 ...

前面我们说过， 北证市场目前估值市盈率（PE.TTM)已经高达52.41倍 ，在这样情况下的调整，每一次 调整都存在两种可能性， 一是正常市场波动性调整，二是市场行情彻底结束 。如果执拗的认为只有第 一种可能性，那么过往北证2021年11月份、2024年1月份所吃的苦可能还会再吃一次，到手的盈利也可 能在下跌中快速灰飞烟灭。 | 北证50(BJ:899050) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1382.74 -41.64 -2.92% | | | 休市 06-13 15:34:58 北京时间 | 3.28 万球友关注 | | 最高:1422.93 | 今开:1415.32 | 成交量:1666.15万手 | 换手:一 | | | 最低:1382.74 | 昨收:1424.38 | 成交额:369.32亿 | 振幅:2.82% | | | 52周最高: 1500.31 | 52周最低: 593.91 | | | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | | 区间统计 全屏显示 | | 均线 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 螺纹钢市场周报 淡季表需下滑 螺纹期价震荡偏弱 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至6月13日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价2969（-6），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3100（-30）。（单位： 元/吨） 2. 产量：产能利用率下调，螺纹产量三连降。207.57（-10.89）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：高温和雨水影响需求，表观需求继续下滑。本期表需219.97（-9.06），（同比-7.14）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑，总库存五连降。螺纹钢总库存558.08（-12.4），（同比-222.82）。（单位：万 吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率58.44%，环比上周减少0.43个百分点，同比去年增加8.66个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美国商 ...