张尧浠：金价如期遇阻再调整、关注三角形趋势仍有攀升 上交易日周二(5月27日)：国际黄金再度遇阻回落收跌，继续受到3500美元而下的回落趋势线压力，那么在突破阻力压制前，仍偏回撤调整，待再度回踩 上升趋势线支撑位置，之后再度看涨突破阻力攀升至3500美元关口附近，如止跌回升再度走强突破回落趋势线压力，则将进一步看涨至3435美元目标。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3346.13美元/盎司，便先行录得日内高点3349.64美元，之后虽有明显反弹，但仍未持稳力度，并之后再度回落走低，一路延 续到美盘初筑底盘整，并录得日内低点3285.47美元，之后则触底回升，收于3300.50美元，日振幅64.17美元，收跌45.63美元，跌幅1.36%。 影响上，美元指数止跌反弹强势收阳，对金价造成利空压力，国际贸易局势担忧情绪有所降温。其特朗普政府再就关税释放积极信息，美国国家经济委员 会主任：对某些国家的关税可能降至10%或更低。再加上美盘数据整体利空金价，打压金价连续走低，触及日内低点； 之后，受到支撑买盘，以及美国媒体：特朗普可能在未来几天内对俄罗斯实施新的制裁措施，美国佛州州长签署法案，承认金银为法定货币等，有所利好 ...

核 心 观 点 5月以来，随着政策利率下调，资金面进一步转松，但降准落地后资金利率反而上行。那么，6月政府债供给 多少？流动性缺口有多大？资金面将趋紧或者更松？ 宽松落地，市场利率怎么走？ 资金利率方面 ， 5月资金利率延续下行，从节奏来看，降准降息等一揽子金融 政策发布后，资金利率快速下行，而在5月15日降准落地后，资金面反而趋于收敛，资金利率中枢并未进一 步下行。 央行操作方面， 下旬开始逆回购转为小额净投放，同时MLF超额续作，月中落地的降准也向市场 投放1万亿元左右的流动性。 长债利率方面， 随着降准降息落地，长端利率演绎利好出尽的行情，此外，随 着关税政策缓和，市场对于基本面预期有所上修，债市有所走弱。 债券托管方面， 4月债券托管规模环比增 速放缓，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量收缩，其中地方债继续贡献主要增量；分机构看，广义基金增持规 模有所下降，商业银行托管规模环比增量扩大。 特别国债启动，供给压力多大？ 国债方面， 6月将发行6期附息国债、7期贴现国债和2只储蓄国债，此外， 还将续发3只超长期特别国债和新发1只中央金融机构注资特别国债，我们预计6月国债或将发行1.38万亿元， 净融资规模在49 ...

Group 1 - The meeting of the Provincial People's Congress Standing Committee was held in Xi'an, presided over by the Provincial Party Secretary Zhao Yide [1] - 60 members of the Standing Committee attended the meeting, meeting the legal attendance requirement [2] - Reports were presented on various topics including the implementation of science and technology progress laws, government debt management for 2024, and anti-corruption efforts [3] Group 2 - The meeting reviewed multiple legislative drafts including the waste classification management regulations and forest management regulations [4] - Additional reports included the examination of individual representatives' qualifications and various government budget adjustments [4] - A special lecture on hydrogen energy and zero-carbon smart energy systems was delivered by an academic expert prior to the meeting [6]

Group 1 - Liaoning issued 7-year general local bonds with a scale of 112.545 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6700%, with a marginal multiple of 2.11 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.70 [1] - Liaoning also issued 30-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 50.200 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.1200%, achieving a marginal multiple of 9.51 times, surpassing the expected multiple of 2.06 [1]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 关税风波再起，美元短期走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好降温，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数上行，美 债收益率升至 4.51%。美元指数跌 1.96%至 99.1，非美货币多数 升值，离岸人民币涨 0.53%，欧元涨 1.75%，英镑涨 1.89%，日 元涨 2.16%，瑞郎涨 1.97%，泰铢涨 1.99%，韩元涨 2.55%，加 元、澳元、新西兰元、林吉特、卢比、比索、兰特等涨超 1%。 金价涨 4.8%至 3357 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 22.3，现货商品 指数收涨，布油反弹 0.7%至 65.5 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 穆迪下调美国评级后，市场对美国政府债务问题的担忧再度增 加，特朗普政府的美丽大法案在众议院以微弱比例获得通过， 如果参议院能够通过，下一阶段市场对减税的交易预计增加， 但减税也会导致美国政府债务问题进一步恶化。关税谈判进展 不佳，特朗普威胁 6 月 1 日对欧盟加征 50%的关税，以促进双方 的谈判，并且表示要对苹果公司在印度生产的产品加税，市场 避险情绪再度升温，欧美股市此 ...

投资策略指南：从杠杆工具到组合配置 黄金投资的复杂性在于其多重属性：商品、货币、避险资产。对于普通投资者而言，上海黄金期货市场采用的保证金交易制度（杠杆率通常为10%-15%）是 一把"双刃剑"。例如，若以685元/克的价格买入1手（1000克）黄金期货，仅需约6.85万元保证金即可撬动68.5万元的名义合约价值。这种"以小博大"的机 制，在市场波动率攀升时可能放大收益，但也可能因价格短期回调导致强制平仓。 专业投资者则更注重跨市场套利策略。以2025年5月23日数据为例，伦敦金现货价格折算人民币约为773.62元/克（汇率7.1903），而上海现货金价为684.6元/ 克，两地价差达12.9%。这种结构性机会需要实时监控汇率波动和跨境资本流动政策，如同在"潮汐间精准捕鱼"。 市场趋势分析：黄金价格高位震荡的逻辑与驱动因素 以美元计价的黄金与美债收益率历来呈现"跷跷板效应"。近期美国长期赤字问题推高美债收益率，但黄金却逆势走强，反映出市场对美元信用体系的深层焦 虑。这一矛盾现象可类比为"暴雨中的灯塔"——尽管美债收益率上涨可能压制金价，但美元实际购买力的下降（通胀隐忧）和债务违约风险的升温，仍使黄 金成为资金 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the stock of local bonds reaching 50.79 trillion yuan as of May 16, 2025 [3][11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 197.249 billion yuan, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [4][18]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend [5][36]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of May 16, 2025, the stock of local bonds reached 50.79 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [3][11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were all over 1 trillion yuan. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of May 16, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with each exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had a stock of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 197.249 billion yuan were issued, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [4][18]. - As of May 16, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in May had reached 30.168 billion yuan, accounting for 5.47% of the monthly local bond issuance [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of 7 - 10 - year local bonds last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 42.26%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the 30 - year local bond issuance rate and the same - term treasury bond slightly widened to 23.65BP, and the spread of the 20 - year local bond to the same - term treasury bond slightly narrowed to 14.35BP [4][27]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week increased slightly compared with two weeks ago, and the primary tender sentiment significantly recovered [4][27]. - Five provinces issued new bonds last week. Anhui had the largest issuance volume this month, with terms mainly concentrated in 7 - 10 years and 10 - 20 years. Fujian followed, with terms mainly concentrated within 7 years and 10 - 20 years. Guangxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan also had relatively large new issuance amounts. Except for Guangxi and Inner Mongolia, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of May 16, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.9%, with a spread of 22.07BP to the same - term treasury bond, at the 72.6% quantile since 2024. The quantiles of the price spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 72.6% and 88.2% respectively [5][36]. - The turnover rate of local bonds rebounded last week, and the turnover rates of all term varieties significantly increased compared with two weeks ago. The highest weekly turnover rate was for varieties within 10 years, at 1.02% [5][43]. - In terms of regions, Shandong had over 300 trading transactions and Jiangsu had over 200 trading transactions last week. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 16.53 years, with an average yield of 1.96% [5][43]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 57.304 billion yuan, of which the purchase of varieties over 20 - 30 years accounted for 73%. Other institutions were all net sellers [5][44].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月22日 政府债务周度观察 政府债将继续支撑 5 月财政支出 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 20 周（5/12-5/18）5982 亿，第 21 周 （5/19-5/25）3548 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 4.1 万亿，进 度 34.7%。 政府债净融资第 20 周（5/12-5/18）6723 亿，第 21 周（5/19-5/25）3843 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 5.8 万亿，超出去年同期 3.9 万亿。 从 4 月财政数据来看，虽然收入有所转暖，但政府债融资也对支出增速 的贡献较高，第二本账支出增速高达 45%。5 月至今政府债净融资已经 超过 1.4 万亿，预计将继续对财政支出形成较强支撑。 国债第 20 周（5/12-5/18）净融资 5012 亿，第 21 周（5/19-5/25）2417 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 2.4 万亿，进度 36.5%。 地方债净融资第 20 周（5/12-5/18）1711 亿，第 21 周（5/19-5/25）1426 亿。截至第 20 周（5/12-5/18）累计 ...

本文字数：1240，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周三，美股大幅下挫，因担心如果国会通过美国总统特朗普提出的减税法案，美国政府债务将膨胀数 万亿美元，美债收益率飙升。 三 大 股 指 均 创 近 一 个 月 最 大 跌 幅 ， 道 指 跌 816.80 点 ， 跌 幅 1.91% ， 报 41860.44 点 ， 纳 指 跌 1.41%，报18872.64点，标普500指数跌1.61%，报5844.61点。 自上周五穆迪下调美国主权信用评级以来，美债一直面临压力。周三，30年期国债的收益率回升至 5.09%，基准10年期国债收益率攀升11.5个基点至4.59%。与利率预期关联密切的2年期美债涨4.7 个基点至4.01%。 美国国债收益率飙升之前，对美国政府债务的需求减弱，对预算赤字的担忧日益加剧。当天，财政部 160亿美元20年期美国政府债券拍卖需求疲软，因为投资者正在监测该国财政轨迹的进展。 众议院规则委员会周三召开听证会，共和党人试图克服关于削减医疗补助计划和高成本州税收减免的 内部分歧。投资者也一直在关注特朗普减税提案的进展，以及该提案恶化美国预算赤字的可能性。上 周，评级机构穆迪下调 ...

2025 年 4 月的财政数据有哪些主要特点？ 2025 年 4 月的财政数据显示广义财政收支增速有所回升。具体来看，前四个 月的广义财政支出同比增速达到 7.2%，相比一季度的 5.6%有进一步提升，虽 然仍未达到年初设定的 9.3%的目标，但差距在逐渐缩小。支出端的提速主要 依赖于融资支持，尤其是政府债务。今年中央普通国债和特别国债发行进度明 显加快，其中特别国债从 4 月下旬开始发行，比去年提前一个月。地方债方面， 今年一季度化债进度较快，而 4 月份地方政府重心逐渐向项目投资倾斜。 2025 年第一季度土地出让收入同比增速仍在负区间，但微观数据和财 政口径存在背离。330 个城市的土地成交价款同比增速在一季度已经回 正，财政确认收入则滞后至 4 月份单月同比增速才回正。 未来政策展望方面，将优先使用存量政策，再考虑是否加码及加码幅度。 二季度将继续加快存量政策落地，是否出台增量政策，需观察 7 月底政 治局会议和 8 月下旬人大常委会时点，根据外部压力情况决定。 基数因素 or 另有原因——如何看待 4 月财政收支改善 20250521 摘要 2025 年 4 月财政支出增速加快，主要得益于政府债务融 ...