Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. fiscal risks are accelerating, with the widening divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the USD/JPY exchange rate becoming a crucial market indicator [1] - The recent strength of the Japanese yen, despite rising Japanese long-term yields, is seen as evidence of reduced foreign participation in the U.S. Treasury market [4][6] - The bank believes that the sale of Japanese government bonds poses a greater issue for the U.S. Treasury market by making Japanese assets more attractive to local investors, further encouraging divestment from U.S. assets [6] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos, notes that the strong yen indicates a lack of foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, highlighting U.S. fiscal risks [1] - The bank argues that if Japan were truly facing fiscal concerns, the yen would weaken rather than strengthen, given Japan's positive net foreign asset position [4] - Following a weak U.S. Treasury auction, Saravelos observed a "very negative" reaction from market participants, indicating that the U.S. stock market may struggle to maintain resilience in this environment [7] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that the simultaneous weakening of the dollar is a clear signal that foreign buyers are resisting U.S. assets, reflecting long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal risks [7] - The core issue lies in foreign investors' unwillingness to fund the U.S. dual deficits (fiscal and trade) at current price levels [7] - Saravelos concludes that the solution to the current predicament is complex and ultimately lies with Congress rather than the Federal Reserve, suggesting that a depreciation of the dollar may be the final release valve for the U.S. dual deficit problem [7]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国财政赤字隐忧持续，G7 财长会议召开 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-22 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 众议院议长约翰逊：达成 4 万美元州和地方税抵扣上限协议 美国 C3 库存累库 美国 C3 累库持续，美湾-远东套利窗口关闭下远东进口意愿被部 分压制。 美国政府财政赤字难以降低，美债需求疲弱，长短美债收益率 快速上行，压制美股表现，三大股指均跌超 1%。 农产品（豆粕） USDA 周度出口销售报告前瞻 综 阿根廷降水影响大豆收获、并可能损害最终产量，美豆产区降 雨令种植进度放慢，CBOT 大豆收盘上涨。国内进口大豆成本有 所上涨，沿海豆粕现货报价亦小幅上调。 合 有色金属（镍） 晨 5 月 21 日 LME 镍库存较上一日减少 312 吨 报 镍价区间震荡，关注波段机会 能源化工（液化石油气） | 吴梦吟 | 资深分析师 | （宏观策略） | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Analyser] | F03089475 | | | 投资咨询号： | Z0016707 | | | Tel： | 63325888-3904 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in COMEX gold prices is attributed to increased market concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability due to President Trump's proposed tax legislation, which could raise government debt by $3 to $5 trillion, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 21, COMEX gold is trading at $3,321.00 per ounce, reflecting a 0.86% increase, with a daily opening at $3,293.00 and a high of $3,322.10 [2] - The weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status is prompting a reassessment of gold's role as a store of value, driven by fiscal deterioration, potential interest rate cuts, and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Reports indicate that Israel is planning potential strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, contributing to heightened geopolitical tensions and boosting safe-haven sentiment, which is favorable for gold prices [1] Group 3: Speculative Positioning - According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), non-commercial speculators' net long positions in gold increased to 251,300 contracts as of May 14, marking a nearly 7% week-over-week rise and the highest level in three months [1] - The continuous decline in short positions over the past three weeks indicates growing market confidence in further increases in gold prices [1]

贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 2.11 %，报 772.22 元/克，沪银涨 1.68 %，报 8243.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.30 %， 报 3294.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.43 %，报 33.32 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.48%，美元指数报 99.97 ； 市场展望： 受到特朗普表态影响，昨日美国财政赤字预期出现显著转变，驱动金银价格走强。 特朗普及其团队近期大力推动减税法案，上周五，众议院预算委员会否决了共和党的这一税收 法案，保守派反对该法案并要求针对其中的医疗补助部分进行削减。本周三，特朗普的减税法 案虽获得众议院的其中关键委员会通过，但民主党议员及共和党内保守派仍不赞同该法案的主 张，要求进一步大幅修改其中的医疗政策。黄金价格与美国财政赤字的预期扩张程度呈现正相 关关系，因此截至昨日夜盘前，国际金价总体呈现弱势反弹的走势。 贵金属日报 2025-05-21 但在昨夜，美国总统特朗普则明确 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. fiscal situation is under scrutiny, particularly following recent credit rating downgrades by Fitch and Moody's, which may lead to increased investor concern about rising deficits and foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [1][1][1] Group 1 - In 2023, Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating to below the highest level, but this did not result in a lasting market reaction [1] - Analyst Gennadiy Goldberg from TD Securities suggests that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will continue to drive up the deficit, raising investor anxiety regarding the increasing deficit and potential lack of foreign demand for U.S. debt [1][1]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/20 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/16 | | | 2025/5/12 至 | 2025/5/16 | | | | 乙二醇 | 4461.00 | 乙二醇 | | | 5.74% | | | | 铁矿石 | 736.50 | 铁矿石 | | | 4.60% | | | | PTA | 4798.00 | PTA | | | 4.19% | | | | PV ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has consistently emphasized that the U.S. fiscal path is "unsustainable," particularly regarding the federal deficit issue [1][3] - Powell stated that while the Federal Reserve does not have the authority to set fiscal policy, long-term fiscal policy will significantly impact the economy [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. AAA rating has heightened the urgency of the fiscal crisis, predicting a $4 trillion increase in deficits over the next decade if Congress extends the 2017 tax cuts [1] Group 2 - The White House and Congress remain calm in response to Moody's downgrade, with officials asserting that the debt issue is not a recent development [2] - The White House Economic Council Chair highlighted the importance of reducing the deficit, predicting that new tax legislation could lead to economic growth of 4.2%-5.2% annually over the next four years [2] - Powell did not comment on the downgrade but acknowledged that the rating's future impact on prices should not be overlooked [2] Group 3 - Powell suggested that policymakers should focus on mandatory spending areas like Medicare and Social Security rather than discretionary spending to address the fiscal issues [3] - He warned that an aging population will exacerbate the shrinking tax base and increasing welfare spending, making it crucial to address the long-term unsustainable budget deficit [3] - Powell's previous warnings about the expensive healthcare system and aging population are now manifesting in the form of credit rating downgrades [3]

新华财经上海5月20日电（葛佳明） 近期，美元在利好情绪推动下大幅反弹，但市场在逐步消化了关税的利多后，对美元后续走势再度重回犹豫状态，对政 策不确定性和债务可持续性的担忧正动摇美元资产的投资性。 多家机构警告，市场低估了关税和通胀对经济的影响，此前美元"微笑曲线"理论背后的"避险属性"逐步消失，在美国政府财政赤字扩大的背景下，美元正在 成为典型的"风险资产"。 美元走势正从"微笑"到"皱眉" "美元微笑曲线"是解释和预测美元周期性波动的框架，由经济学家斯蒂芬·詹（Stephen Jen）于2001年提出。 "微笑曲线"理论认为，美元通常会在两种极端情况下走强：一是美国经济表现显著优于其他地区，美元资产的回报和利率将吸引外国投资，推动美元走强； 另一种情况则是全球面临较大的经济和政治不确定性，美元因其流动性和稳定性而成为投资者偏好的避险资产。 根据美国财政部的数据，美国的负债规模已经达到36.21万亿美元。占GDP比重达124%。根据美国国会测算，2024财年美国偿还债务的利息支出首次突破1 万亿美元，仅在2025财年上半年就已达5825亿美元，成为第二大支出项。 尽管美国政府强调"将通过重大法案恢复财政秩序 ...

在人民币（CNY）方面，银行将未来12个月美元兑人民币预测从7.40下调至7.10，认为中美关系改善提 升市场信心，但中国官方料不愿见到人民币快速升值。报告认为，人民币走势对其他亚洲货币的影响将 逐步扩大，特别是新台币（TWD）、韩元（KRW）等北亚货币近期已出现同步升值迹象。 该报告提醒投资者关注美国双赤字（即财政赤字与经常账户赤字）风险的累积，未来除非美国债券收益 率进一步上扬，否则美元恐难以吸引足够外部资本维持汇率稳定。 （文章来源：新华财经） 在中美贸易层面，报告指出，美国下调关税导致市场避险情绪回落，同时降低了中美两国的短期衰退概 率。数据显示，当前美国有效平均关税率已从年初的约18%降至接近8%，但仍显著高于2018年前的2% 至3%。企业在关键产业（如半导体、电子产品、药品和金属）仍面临不确定性，相关领域关税政策预 计将于7月前后公布。 美债市场方面，尽管美联储（Federal Reserve）降息预期有所降温，长端国债收益率上升，反映出市场 对美国财政可持续性的担忧。报告特别指出，美国政府债务占GDP的比重已回升至二战时期水平。即使 在经济稳定期，美国财政赤字仍可能维持在6%至7%，这将持续施 ...

君諾外匯发现新加坡银行首席经济学家 Mansoor Mohi-uddin 在最新研究报告中，就上周五美国信用评级 遭下调事件，展开了全面且深入的分析，揭示其对美国经济前景产生的广泛而深远的影响。这一评级变 动并非孤立的市场信号，而是牵一发而动全身，在财政、金融、货币政策等多个领域引发强烈震动。 在金融市场领域，美国国债避险地位遭受的威胁，成为此次评级下调带来的另一重大冲击，这也恰好契 合了新加坡银行 "美元已经见顶" 的观点。长期以来，美国国债凭借美国强大的经济实力和美元的国际储 备货币地位，被视为全球最安全的避险资产之一。然而，信用评级下调使得美国国债的安全性光环黯 淡，投资者开始重新审视其资产配置组合。随着对美国国债需求的潜在下降，美元的吸引力也随之减 弱。从历史经验来看，美元指数与美国国债收益率紧密相关，当美债收益率上升但吸引力下降时，国际 资本可能加速流出美国市场，进而对美元汇率形成下行压力。新加坡银行认为，在多种因素的共同作用 下，美元已难以维持前期的强势地位，未来将进入下行周期。 在货币政策方面，美国居高不下的财政赤字和持续的通货膨胀压力，使得美联储的政策操作空间被严重 压缩。为了维持政府债务的可 ...