Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

【冠通研究】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面高开低走，偏强震荡，尾盘于 78690 元/吨，前二十名多单 量 105514 手，+1969 手；空单量 102779 手，+3416 手。 关注海外重要会议 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 22 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开低走，偏强震荡。杰克逊霍尔会议进行中，鲍威尔将于今晚发表讲 话，其观点或将影响美元指数的波动。供给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco）上调对 于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜 矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协订单有盈 利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产量波动幅度 不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方面，下游需 求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. For the copper market, the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged, with support from the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" and the market awaiting new drivers [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by the resumption of production at Yichun Yinli, but demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides some support. The market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11][12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure as the consumption peak season ends and the supply - demand situation weakens. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. - Asphalt futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to insufficient cost - side support and weak demand [15]. - PP is expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [16][17]. - Plastic is expected to trade in a range, with the improvement in the agricultural film industry potentially providing some support [18]. - PVC is expected to decline in a volatile manner due to weak demand and high inventory pressure [19][20]. - The coking coal market is temporarily in a downward - biased and volatile state, with market sentiment affected by various factors [21]. - Urea is expected to be bearish in the short term due to weak domestic demand and high inventory [22][23]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Fuel oil and caustic soda rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell [6]. - As of 15:16 on August 22, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 300 2509, SSE 50 2509, and CSI 1000 2509, while funds flowed out of contracts like lithium carbonate 2511, SHFE copper 2509, and SHFE gold 2510 [8]. Copper - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The supply of refined copper is expected to be stable in the short term, with potential production cuts in the later third quarter. Demand is supported by the power grid and new energy sectors but is still affected by the real estate market. The market is waiting for new drivers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a downward - trending shock. The resumption of production at Yichun Yinli eases supply concerns, and demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides support. The market is highly sensitive to industry news [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. OPEC + plans to increase production in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus. The consumption peak season is ending, and prices are expected to decline [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply has decreased, and demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds. With the decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be weak [15]. PP - The downstream PP开工率 has slightly increased, and the supply may increase with new capacity. Demand is weak in the short term but may be boosted during the peak seasons. The market is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually improving, especially in the agricultural film sector. The market is expected to trade in a range [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 has decreased, and demand is weak, especially affected by the real estate market. Exports are expected to decline, and inventory pressure is high. The market is expected to decline [19][20]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has declined. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as environmental protection and the steel industry. The market sentiment is volatile, and the market is expected to be downward - biased [21]. Urea - The price of urea has declined. The supply is stable, and domestic demand is weak, with high inventory levels. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [22][23].

南华原油市场日报 ——油价反弹修复，但缺乏实质性利好支撑 2025年8月22日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 盘面反弹修复，原油市场延续短线反弹态势，7月以来的横盘震荡格局得以巩固，虽无新驱动因素，但重心 小幅上移，主要归因于三方面：一是俄乌局势进展放缓，市场对局势快速降温的预期减弱，地缘溢价存在 情绪修复；二是需求仍处季节性峰值，拐点尚未显现，提供必要支撑；三是欧美原油进入移仓换月阶段， 近月空头减仓与远月多头增仓的仓位调整形成技术性支撑。不过，宏观情绪偏负面，恐慌指数低位抬升、 美股高位回调，未对原油形成利好。展望后市，8月下旬后需求将随美国夏季出行结束及炼厂秋检进入季节 性下滑通道，而OPEC+9月会议若如预期决定10月暂停增产，短期或提振情绪，但因产量配额已处高位，叠 加需求下滑，供需失衡压力将使基本面对原油呈利空导向。同时，美联储9月降息预期概率降至75%，年底 降息预期次数缩减。整体来看，近期反弹缺乏实质性利好支撑，上行空间有限，未来逻辑中性偏空，需警 惕下行风险及宏观情绪波动带来的影响。 【多空分析】 一、多头 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Energy and Chemicals Sector - Author: Chen Dong [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a trend of oscillating and stabilizing. The rebound of crude oil futures strengthened the cost support for downstream products, boosting the performance of the aromatic hydrocarbon, polyolefin, and oil - chemical sectors. [4] - Methanol futures rebounded after a significant decline, but the port inventory accumulation trend continued, and there were still upward resistance. Fuel oil and asphalt also had a slight inventory increase. [4] - In the aromatic hydrocarbon sector, PTA had a slight inventory increase, while ethylene glycol had a slight inventory decrease. In the polyolefin sector, plastics, PVC, polypropylene, and styrene all showed a slight inventory increase. [4] - With the improvement of the macro - environment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors outweighed industrial factors. Although there was inventory pressure in the energy and chemical sector, it did not prevent the sector from oscillating and stabilizing this week. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector - The overall trend of the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector this week was oscillating and stabilizing, affected by cost support and macro - environment changes. [4] Rubber - There are data charts on rubber, including rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, and tire (full - steel and semi - steel)开工率. [6][7][9] Methanol - Data charts cover methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin开工率, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting. [19][21][23] Crude Oil - Charts show crude oil basis, futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery开工率, and net position changes of WTI and Brent crude oil. [32][34][36] Fuel Oil - There are charts on the basis of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil, monthly spread, domestic production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore inventory from 2020 - 2025, global shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. [47][48][50] Asphalt - Data includes domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, monthly spread, domestic production from 2016 - 2025, import volume from 2020 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt装置开工率, and weekly inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange from 2016 - 2025. [61][62][64] PTA - Charts show domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread,装置开工率, weekly production, enterprise weekly inventory, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts. [72][74][76] Ethylene Glycol - Data includes ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic开工率 from 2021 - 2025, weekly production, polyester industry chain开工率, and East China inventory from 2018 - 2025. [90][87][92] Styrene - There are charts on styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic开工率 from 2016 - 2025, factory inventory, registered warehouse receipts, and East + South China port inventory from 2020 - 2025. [99][100][102] Plastic - Data includes LLDPE basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts, and domestic plastic products data. [111][114][115] PP - Charts show polypropylene basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan's polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025, domestic downstream开工率, and domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [133][124][126] PVC - Data includes domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts, and housing completion and sales area cumulative value from 2018 - 2025. [135][136][138]

【8月22日美欧敲定贸易协议框架，国内四大股指期货全线拉升】8月22日，国际上美欧正式敲定贸易协 议框架；国内四大股指期货全线拉升。分析师认为，在美联储降息预期反复、国际地缘持续扰动下，国 内商品走势分化加剧，短期宜轻仓过周末，后续关注美联储鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会讲话。 8月22日， 河北市场钢厂对焦炭采购价上调50/55元/吨，焦炭第七轮提涨逐步落地。双焦短期供需变化不大，受市 场宏观情绪影响大，焦煤主力在1000 - 1100大关支撑之上谨慎轻仓试多性价比更高。 随着宏观政策发 力显效，中国展现强劲韧性并传导，投资者信心增强，资金面与情绪面良性互动，股指期货近期持续上 涨超4个月。中长线看好股指表现，短期股指有关期权波动率处较高水平，IC主力沿日线图5日线顺势交 易更稳健，追涨需注意盘中资金博弈情况。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of U.S. economic data on interest rate expectations, particularly the reduction of bets on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year due to a rise in the S&P Global Composite PMI to 55.4, the highest in eight months [1] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest rise since late May, while continuing claims rose by 30,000 to 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021 [1] - Nickel futures experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai nickel main contract showing a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots, while London nickel prices fell by 0.45% [1] Group 2 - The stainless steel main contract also saw fluctuations, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots, indicating weak market transactions and an expanding basis premium [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while production in August increased, but terminal demand remained weak, suggesting that prices may follow macroeconomic fluctuations [1] - The article suggests a cautious approach to trading in both nickel and stainless steel markets, advising to observe market conditions due to the potential changes in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [1]

据KVBplus消息，周五（8月22日），欧元兑美元小幅反弹0.07%，在1.1613附近窄幅整理，价格正围绕 20日均线1.1608展开拉锯。回看周四北美交易时段，欧元曾回撤约0.40%，美元指数因为美国经济数据 强劲上涨0.45%。数据显示，美国商业活动韧性明显，超过了劳动力市场降温的信号，这也让交易员对 美联储9月降息的预期有所下调。现在市场显得比较谨慎，大家的目光都聚焦在美联储主席鲍威尔的讲 话上。 尽管就业市场降温，美联储官员的态度依然偏鹰派。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克倾向维持"适度限制性政 策"来压低通胀，她认为目前没有降息的理由。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德和亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克 也表示，通胀风险依然存在，短期降息可能性不大。市场对美联储9月降息的预期持续下降，从8月20日 的82%降到72%。 在欧元区方面，经济数据也显示出一些边际改善。欧盟8月PMI初值显示，商业活动有所回升：制造业 PMI从7月的49.8升至50.5，服务业PMI虽从7月的51.0降至50.7，但仍处于扩张区间。欧洲央行预计将维 持利率不变，而美联储降息概率下降，利差因素仍对欧元/美元走势提供一定支撑。 技术面分析，欧元兑美元短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main nickel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel ore price remained flat, the domestic nickel iron production was expected to decline in August while Indonesia's increased, and the domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase. The demand for ternary materials, stainless steel, alloys, and electroplating was stable. The overall nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the repeated expectations of Fed rate - cuts, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main stainless - steel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The stainless - steel production was expected to increase in August, but the terminal demand was weak. The high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Considering the large influence of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals and there was cost support. Stainless - steel prices were expected to fluctuate with macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 119,700 yuan/ton, 119,830 yuan/ton, 120,030 yuan/ton, and 120,290 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 230 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel beans was 122,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and the inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged [2] Stainless Steel Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi), 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), and other stainless - steel products remained mostly unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2] Market News and Analysis - **Macroeconomic News**: The US August S&P Global Composite PMI reached a new 8 - month high, reducing the bets on two Fed rate - cuts this year. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, and the number of continued claims increased by 30,000 to 1,972,000 [2]. - **Nickel Market Analysis**: The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory accumulation at ports. The demand side had increased production of ternary materials and stainless - steel plants, and stable demand for alloys and electroplating [2]. - **Stainless Steel Market Analysis**: The supply side had an expected increase in stainless - steel production in August, while the demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side had a rising high - nickel pig iron price and a stable high - carbon ferrochrome price [2]

从技术面来看，根据最新的四小时图表，金价目前徘徊在3340美元附近，处于支撑与阻力的夹缝地带，下方支撑区间集中在3290至3268美元，一旦跌破这一 带，可能加速下探至更低水平；而上方的关键阻力则位于3430至3452美元区域，该区间与长期下降趋势线重叠，构成强压，若能有效突破，则有望进一步冲 击3500美元关口。换言之，黄金正处于区间震荡的中枢，短期方向尚未明朗，突破与跌破都可能引发趋势性行情。 整体而言，黄金的多空力量正在平衡中博弈，降息预期虽仍存在，但激进宽松的幻想被数据打破，美元反攻的条件逐渐形成；而和平希望则让黄金避险属性 削弱。短线走势将高度依赖即将到来的美联储信号和全球经济数据。如果周五鲍威尔讲话继续维持鹰派立场，金价可能难以突破上方阻力区间，甚至会重新 走弱；但若释放对通胀容忍度的提升，坚定年内多次降息，黄金则可能迎来新一轮反弹。未来几日的市场动态将决定黄金能否摆脱当前困境，这不仅关乎短 期交易机会，更关乎避险资产在全球资金配置中的地位。 ▲ATFX图 黄金价格在周三启动了较为明显的反弹，因美元转为走弱。此前市场一致认为美联储将在9月重启降息周期，甚至押注年内累计三次25个基点的宽松，但随 着 ...