Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic recovery needs further consolidation, and policies are expected to be further strengthened. The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government has increased the supply cost of nickel resources, and the premium of domestic trade ore has remained stable. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored. Domestic smelters' costs have steadily increased, and some are facing losses, while Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity is accelerating, and output has significantly recovered. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills' profits are compressed, and the 300 - series is shifting production to other products. The demand for new - energy vehicles continues to rise, but its impact is limited. Recently, both supply and demand are weak, with domestic inventories decreasing and overseas inventories remaining stable. Technically, there is a volume - shrinking, position - reducing rebound. It is expected to have a weak and volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light short position [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,510 dollars/ton, up 205 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 91,891 lots, down 2,963 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 1,027 lots, up 2,203 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 201,462 tons, up 1,152 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 27,075 tons, up 120 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants are 28,476 tons, up 570 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,038 tons, down 19 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,850 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,950 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,600 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 203.04 dollars/ton, down 7.42 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, up 137.89 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 725.88 million tons, down 5.63 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 78.86 dollars/ton, down 32.99 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,700 metal tons, down 1,100 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, up 10,187.11 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 81.69 million tons, down 19.64 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 182.43 million tons, down 7.75 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.62 million tons, down 2.1 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in this year exceeded 1 trillion yuan. As of May 31, the 5 major categories of consumer goods trade - in drove sales of 1.1 trillion yuan and issued about 175 million direct subsidies to consumers. The number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - in reached 4.12 million, and 49.863 million consumers bought 77.618 million household appliances in 12 major categories. The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, with an expected 49.5 and a previous value of 48.7. The final value of the US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, with an initial value of 52.3. The Fed's Daly said she was still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast, which showed two rate cuts by the end of the year. She hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate until it is certain that the inflation rate will reach the 2% target [3]

铝类产业日报 2025/6/3 免责声明 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,860.00 | -210.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,998.00 | +36.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 70.00 | -25.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 64.00 | ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) 期货市场 | 12630 | -55 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -25 | 20 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | 3086 | 1004 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 85193 | -5476 | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 129690 | -300 | | | | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) 现货市场 | 13750 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9800 | 0 | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 640 | 55 | | | | 电解镍产量(月,吨) 上游情况 | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.17 | -0.11 | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 18746.54 | 10187.11 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) | 8 ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：制造业 PMI 回升 国家统计局公布数据显示，5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为 47.5%和 47.1%， 比上月上升 2.8 和 3.7 个百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启， 进出口情况有所改善。美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示， 将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至 50%，该决定从 6 月 4 日（周三）起生效。对 此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5，为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，预期 49.5，前值 48.7。美 国 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值为 52，初值 52.3。标普全球称，美国 5 月销售 费用通胀达到 2022 年末以来的最高水平。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、股指 原油：周末乌克兰袭击俄罗斯推动油价上涨。美国一 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial bond sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Chinese economic data in April showed that fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than expected. In May, the official manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it was conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures recovered most of the losses on Thursday, and short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Affected by the news of the reversal of the US tariff ruling, last Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally at a high level after rising. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.21%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1]. Important Information - **Open Market**: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [1]. - **Funds Market**: Last Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market increased compared with the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the whole day was 1.48% (1.41% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average for the whole day was 1.66% (1.63% the previous day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds decreased compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased 2.58 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year decreased 2.63 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased 1.65 BP to 1.67%, and the 30 - year decreased 2.00 BP to 1.90% [1]. - **Other Information**: In May, the central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. In April, the US core PCE price index increased 2.5% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The US president announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50%. On June 2, it was announced that the US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November last year [1][3]. Market Logic - Chinese economic growth in April remained resilient. In May, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line, but the production index returned to the expansion range, and new export orders rebounded. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish in the short term [3]. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3].

首席点评： 制造业 PMI 回升 国家统计局公布数据显示， 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非制造 业 PMI 为 50.3% ，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。新 出口订单指数和进口指数分别为 47.5% 和 47.1% ，比上月上升 2.8 和 3.7 个百分点。调查中部分涉 美企业反映外贸订单加速重启，进出口情况有所改善。美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场 集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25% 提高至 50% ，该决定从 6 月 4 日（周三）起生效。对 此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5 ，为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，预期 49.5 ，前值 48.7 。美国 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值 为 52 ，初值 52.3 。标普全球称，美国 5 月销售费用通胀达到 2022 年末以来的最高水平。 重点品种： 原油、贵金属、股指 原油： 周末乌克兰袭击俄罗斯推动油价上涨。美国一家联邦法院周三阻止了特朗普所谓 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and inflation, with upcoming economic data expected to reveal the true effects of these tariffs [1][3][4] - A series of economic data releases are scheduled, including China's retail and industrial production figures, as well as the S&P Global PMI index for major economies, which will provide insights into the economic activity and potential slowdown [1][2] - The G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada may lead to a collective assessment of trade impacts, contingent on reaching a consensus on a communiqué [1] Group 2 - S&P Global economists indicate that the international trade environment remains highly uncertain, with widespread expectations that tariffs will suppress global growth and elevate inflation [3] - Bloomberg economists note that U.S. import prices suggest that American importers are currently bearing most of the tariff costs, with little change in the import price index excluding tariffs since the beginning of the year [4] - There is evidence that the anticipation of Trump's trade actions has already distorted business operations, as seen in the nearly 60% year-on-year increase in EU exports to the U.S. in March [4]

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关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has led to an increase in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, both supply and demand are weak, and the sustainability of downstream demand is questionable. The market has been mainly trading on macro - information recently. The implementation of domestic stimulus policies remains to be seen, and copper prices are currently fluctuating slightly and mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: Since January this year, the Fed has maintained the interest rate decision unchanged for the third consecutive time. Powell stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates hastily. Trump's call for a rate cut does not affect the Fed's work. This news has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and put pressure on copper prices [1]. - **Supply Side**: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper production of 21,000 tons. There are still concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. The estimated domestic refined copper production in May is 1.023 million tons (a 1.2% month - on - month increase). TC/RC fees continue to be negative and the negative value is expanding. The high - running sulfuric acid price has made up for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tightening [1]. - **Demand Side**: After the holiday, demand recovery has been slow. The downstream operating rate has increased. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. Spot copper prices are strong. In the context of significant inventory reduction, the market has strong expectations for demand. However, in April, China's manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China General Services PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points from March, reaching the lowest level in seven months in the expansion range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: Intraday, Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,620 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top twenty was 118,861 lots, an increase of 2,491 lots; the number of short positions was 111,865 lots, an increase of 1,373 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 210 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 195 yuan per ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,462 per ton, and the spot premium was $24 per ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of April 25, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 194,300 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 156,600 short tons, an increase of 1,991 short tons from the previous period [9].