Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the decline in net interest margin (NIM) is expected to significantly slow down by 2026, suggesting that the current downtrend cycle for NIM may be nearing its end, contrasting sharply with the previous two years of uncertainty in the industry [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin Analysis - The current bottom line for major banks' NIM is estimated to be around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating that it is close to the lower limit [2]. - The necessity of maintaining a reasonable NIM is emphasized as a condition for sustaining economic growth and financial stability, considering factors like capital balance and risk pricing mechanisms [2]. - A model predicts that if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) while deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps year-on-year in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy for 2026 is projected to be "reasonably ample and responsive," with an anticipated LPR decrease of about 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [4]. - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will likely maintain stability in monetary policy, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, unless economic recovery is hindered [4]. - A projected M2 growth rate of 7.0% to 8.0% indicates a basic currency gap of approximately 2.7 to 3.0 trillion yuan for 2026, with measures such as a 0.5% RRR cut expected to release around 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality stocks with improving NIM and attractive dividend yields, specifically highlighting Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also suggesting attention to Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for potential excess returns [4]. - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank are also recommended for investment [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuation of a loose monetary policy in China, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducting a 3-month reverse repurchase agreement to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4][5] - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, with yields on major government bonds rising across the board, indicating market panic and selling pressure [12][13] - Several companies, including Vanke and Country Garden, are facing significant challenges, with Vanke's bonds experiencing steep declines and Country Garden's restructuring plans being approved [15][16] Domestic News - The PBOC announced a fixed amount of 1 trillion yuan for a 3-month reverse repurchase operation to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system, effectively rolling over the same amount that is maturing [4] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need to enhance the role of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of interest rates in the economy [5][6] - Foreign institutions, including OECD and Goldman Sachs, have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with projections for 2025 increased from 4.9% to 5.0% [6] International News - In the U.S., planned layoffs in November decreased significantly, but the total number of layoffs for the year remains at a high level, indicating a cautious labor market [7] - The global economic environment is characterized by uncertainty, affecting hiring intentions among employers [7] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has seen a significant sell-off, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising to 1.8500%, reflecting market fears [13] - The report notes that several bonds from Vanke have seen drastic price declines, with some bonds dropping over 82% [15][16] Credit Bond Events - Country Garden's bond restructuring proposal was approved, allowing for a debt reduction of approximately $1.17 billion [16] - Other companies, such as Peng Bo Shi, have reported difficulties in meeting debt obligations, with outstanding bonds totaling around $218.54 million [16] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is also experiencing a downturn, with major indices declining and a significant number of individual bonds falling in value [16][17] - The report mentions specific convertible bonds that have seen notable price movements, with some increasing by over 9% while others have decreased significantly [18][19]

与市场预期一致，Mediolanum International Funds Limited的Daniel Loughney预计，受劳动力市场数据走 弱推动，美联储下周将把联邦基金目标利率区间下调25个基点。这位董事兼固定收益主管在一份报告中 称："最近的降息被视为'偏紧缩式降息'，但疲软的劳动力市场可能会使这次的反应更偏宽松。"他说， 一个关键焦点将是"点阵图"——即美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员的利率预测——以及FOMC的 季度经济预测摘要，因为市场参与者将从中寻找美联储情绪的任何转变，而这种转变可能会重塑市场对 2026年货币政策的预期。 来源：滚动播报 ...

在通胀跌至历史最低点后，印度央行宣布降息25个基点至5.25%，为六个月来首次。本次降息是今年以 来的第四次降息，使总宽松幅度达到125个基点。 印度央行降息后，印度卢比兑美元在跌回至90关口附近。 印度央行行长Sanjay Malhotra表示，货币政策委员会维持政策立场为"中性"。自10月政策以来，经济经 历了快速的通胀回落。地缘政治和贸易环境对前景构成压力。明年上半年总体通胀和核心通胀将保持在 或低于4%。服务出口有望保持强劲，商品出口面临一些逆风。 印度央行将2025-26财年通胀预期下调至2%，并将GDP增速预期上调至7.3%。 此外，Malhotra表示，印度央行本月将购买价值1万亿卢比的债券，以向银行系统注入流动性。本月， 印度央行还将进行价值50亿美元的掉期操作，即它将买入美元并在三年后卖回。印度央行购买债券的行 动预计将抵消其在货币市场出售美元，以支持疲软的卢比所造成的现金流失。这种政策还将限制市场利 率的上升，并缓冲一个正在应对惩罚性美国关税的经济体。 此前，据路透社报道，消息人士表示由于印度的外部部门面临多重阻力，印度央行将容忍卢比走弱。印 度央行直到上个月一直通过积极出售美元进行干预来 ...

Group 1: International Relations - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of mutual understanding and support between China and France, regardless of external changes[2] - French President Macron reaffirmed France's commitment to the one-China policy and the deepening of the comprehensive strategic partnership with China[2] - Both leaders discussed the Ukraine crisis and signed multiple cooperation agreements in nuclear energy, agriculture, education, and environmental protection[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation for three months, offsetting the amount maturing this month[3] - The central bank's continued reverse repurchase operations since September do not indicate a reduction in liquidity support, as this is just one of the tools used[3] - Current interbank market liquidity remains stable, with no significant fluctuations in funding prices observed[3] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, with total trading volume at 15,489.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,210.02 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.01%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 1.36%[4] - Internationally, the Nikkei 225 led gains with a 2.33% increase, followed by Brazil and Russia with gains of 1.67% and 1.49%, respectively[4] Group 4: Bond and Currency Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond is 1.8722%, with a change of +3.02 basis points[5] - The average rates for R001 and R007 were 1.3611% and 1.4852%, respectively[5] - The US dollar index closed at 99.0602, up 0.2%, while the offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar by 130 basis points, with an exchange rate of 7.0713[5]

"12月将有超过2.5万亿元的公开市场操作资金到期，预计中国人民银行将通过续做MLF、开展买断式逆 回购等方式进行对冲，操作可能更注重'量价适中'，以维护资金面平稳跨年。"董希淼说。 来源：中国银行保险报 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，中国人民银行大概率会通过 买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发 行、引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政 策延续支持性立场。 12月还有3000亿元MLF到期。"总体上看，12月中国人民银行仍会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政 策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性。"王青判断，不过近期中期流动性加量规模也可能较此前每月 6000亿元的水平有所回落。年底前后中国人民银行仍有可能通过降准、国债买卖等方式向市场注入较大 规模长期流动性，短期内中期流动性净投放规模有可能相应收敛。 12月4日，中国人民银行发布公告称，将在12月5日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1万 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。考虑到本月有同等规模3个月期 ...

Group 1: Domestic Market Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 3-month reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, effectively rolling over the same amount due this month [2] - The bond market continues to decline, with yields on major government bonds rising across the board, indicating market panic and selling pressure [10][13] - Vanke's bonds have seen significant price drops, with some bonds falling over 82% [13] Group 2: Corporate Actions - Country Garden's proposal for a mandatory convertible bond and related overseas debt restructuring has been approved by shareholders [14] - New World Development announced the final results of its exchange offer, which is expected to reduce debt by approximately $1.17 billion [14] - Peng Bo announced that its subsidiary failed to pay interest on its dollar bonds, with an outstanding balance of approximately $218.54 million [14] Group 3: International Market Developments - Major foreign institutions, including OECD and Goldman Sachs, have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [4] - In the U.S., Challenger reported that planned layoffs in November fell significantly, but the total for the year remains the highest since 2020, indicating a cautious labor market [5] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.11% [20]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-05 国债期货集体收跌，日债持续承压 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。中国央行12月5日将开展100 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining liquidity in the banking system through a series of reverse repos, with a focus on ensuring stability as year-end financial pressures increase [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On December 5, the PBOC conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation, with a 3-month term, to keep liquidity ample in the banking system [1][2]. - A total of 1.4 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature in December, with expectations for additional operations to maintain liquidity levels [1][2]. - Experts suggest that the lack of an increase in the 3-month reverse repo may relate to the funding needs of financial institutions, not indicating a reduction in liquidity support [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The issuance of government bonds is expected to remain high in December, contributing to liquidity demands [2][3]. - The maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is projected to reach 3.7 trillion yuan in December, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [2]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC will likely conduct another 6-month reverse repo operation, with a high probability of increasing the amount to support market liquidity [2][3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity level through various operations, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure stability during the year-end period [4][5]. - While there is potential for further monetary easing, significant actions like rate cuts may be delayed until early 2026, focusing instead on flexible quantitative tools in the short term [5].

在经过一段时间的美债跑赢大市后，施罗德投资发现环球债券投资组合更有优势。考虑到经济增长稳 健、政策方向偏鸽派，加上现任美联储主席鲍威尔将于2026年5月卸任、新主席人选待定，美联储公信 力或受冲击的隐忧挥之不去，因此认为持有低成本的通胀保障是审慎之举。 欧洲经济于2025年稳步改善。预期这趋势将延续至2026年，德国的财政刺激虽有正面作用，但不足以扭 转整体欧元区经济增长。然而，在英国，劳动市场放缓加上即将收紧财政的预算案，可能会使英国在 2026年初的经济增长继续落后，英国国债因此仍具投资价值。 无论是担心人工智能带动增长过度集中、被高估的股价、波动的美国政策或其他风险，随着全球通胀压 力维持温和，固定收益能分散投资的作用正日益提升。对仍重仓持有现金的投资者而言，这张"安全 网"已不如以往坚固。随着现金利率下行且无法追上通胀，债券仍属具吸引力的收益来源。 企业债券在过去一年表现理想，但估值起点将成为影响未来回报的关键因素。目前，相对于政府债券， 因承担额外信贷风险而赚取的利差已处于历史低位。在收窄的利差水平下，重仓配置企业债券在现阶段 并不明智。 施罗德投资表示，踏入2026年，固定收益投资者面对的，是主要 ...