1. Market Data Variation Analysis - SHFE copper main contract price dropped 0.57% to 79,840 yuan/ton, LME copper price slightly fell to 9,974 dollars/ton, and the market continued weak adjustment [1]. - Spot premium and discount generally weakened, with the discount of flat - copper narrowing by 30 yuan and that of wet - copper widening to - 20 yuan/ton, indicating low downstream receiving willingness [1]. - LME (0 - 3) discount slightly narrowed to - 66.89 dollars/ton but remained deeply discounted, showing overseas spot pressure persisted [1]. - LME copper positions increased by 3,511 lots to 281,336 lots, with greater divergence among long - position funds during price correction [2]. - SHFE copper warrant inventory decreased slightly, with 699 tons reduced in Guangdong, but overall market trading was restricted by high copper prices, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply Side - Overseas mine disturbances intensified, with production issues at Teck Resources' QB copper mine in Chile and a short - term output decline at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine due to ball - mill failures, increasing concerns about copper concentrate supply tightness [3]. - LME copper inventory increased continuously and COMEX inventory rose to 284,400 short tons, indicating overseas hidden inventory pressure was still being released [3]. Demand Side - Domestic downstream demand remained weak, with the discount of Shandong spot premium and discount widening to 150 yuan/ton, and orders of North China fine - copper rod enterprises not improving significantly after resumption, and the operating rate and orders of the enameled wire industry both declining [4]. - High copper prices suppressed the restocking willingness of small and medium - sized processing enterprises, and the seasonal off - season characteristics in power and construction fields continued, resulting in light market trading [4]. Inventory Side - SHFE inventory in China decreased slightly but at a slower pace; with the marginal increase in LME inventory and overseas delivery pressure, the total global visible inventory remained high, and weak demand could not drive substantial inventory reduction [5]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations, constrained by weak demand and overseas inventory pressure on the upside and supported by supply disturbances and costs on the downside [6]. - Supply - side mine disturbances may trigger squeeze - out expectations, but the "Golden September and Silver October" demand has not materialized, and with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations after the unexpected ADP data, copper prices will fluctuate within the channel without new drivers [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious metals and significant increases in minor metals [2][6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry achieved a total revenue of 1,819.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.4 billion yuan, up 36.55% [6][14]. - The precious metals sector saw a remarkable revenue increase of 27.15% year-on-year, reaching 188.3 billion yuan, with net profits soaring by 64.71% to 9.7 billion yuan [6][26]. - The industrial metals sector reported a revenue of 13,585.3 billion yuan, a 3.46% increase, and a net profit of 697.4 billion yuan, up 24.42% [6][37]. - The energy metals sector experienced a revenue of 812.4 billion yuan, growing by 6.20%, with net profits skyrocketing by 1,389.33% to 53.1 billion yuan [6][37]. - The minor metals sector's revenue reached 137.7 billion yuan, a 14.24% increase, with net profits rising by 40.01% to 7.6 billion yuan [6][37]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry maintained a stable operation in the first half of 2025, with 73.76% of the 141 listed companies reporting revenue growth [14][21]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was 12.04%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin rose to 6.35%, up 0.98 percentage points [14][20]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector's gross margin was 13.52%, with a net margin of 6.27%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [26][27]. - The international gold price reached a peak of 3,500 USD/ounce in the first half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase in demand driven by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [30][27]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector's gross margin was 11.25%, with a net margin of 6.20%, indicating a healthy profitability despite market fluctuations [37][39]. - The average price of copper in the first half of 2025 was 77,562 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [49][50]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector's performance was notably strong, with lithium salt prices stabilizing and a significant increase in net profits [6][37]. - The sector's gross margin was not explicitly stated, but the dramatic rise in net profits indicates robust demand and effective cost management [6][37]. Minor Metals and New Metal Materials - The minor metals sector's revenue growth was driven by strong demand in emerging technologies, with a focus on rare earth elements and tungsten [6][37]. - The new metal materials sector reported a revenue of 539.3 billion yuan, a 6.63% increase, with net profits rising by 4.70% [6][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) in the precious metals sector, and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [6][37].

Market Overview - The US dollar index stabilized and rose by 0.15%, closing at 98.29 [2] - Spot gold ended a seven-day winning streak, dropping 0.38% to close at $3545.78 per ounce after reaching nearly $3510 per ounce during the day [2] - Spot silver fell below $41 per ounce, closing down 1.32% at $40.67 per ounce [2] Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment growth for August slowed significantly to 54,000, below the market expectation of 65,000, with July revised to 104,000 [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June, exceeding the expected 230,000 [3] - The US trade deficit surged by 32.5% in July to $78.3 billion, higher than the expected $75.7 billion, marking a four-month high [4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's third-ranking official indicated that gradual rate cuts would be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [5] - A 2026 voting member reiterated opposition to a rate cut in September, citing persistent high inflation [5] Trade Relations - The US and Japan reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with Japan committing to increase US rice purchases by 75% [3] - The US government criticized Norway's sovereign wealth fund for withdrawing investments from Caterpillar, indicating concerns over the fund's actions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - level, during the reporting period, the expectation of interest rate cuts fluctuated. At the beginning of August, the labor market data pushed up the expectation of a 50bp rate cut in September. However, Fed officials later down - regulated this expectation. In terms of cost, nickel ore supply is becoming looser, with price changes in Indonesia and the Philippines. Fundamentally, nickel - iron imports shrank, prices rose, and steel mill production increases were poor. The sulfuric acid market maintained its heat, but the growth of supply was limited by raw materials. The pure - nickel market had average trading. Later, as the interest - rate cut approaches, the nickel price may rise, with steel mills expected to increase production and replenish raw materials in September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the interest - rate cut expectation. At the beginning of the month, the poor non - farm payrolls data and potential rate cuts pushed up nickel prices. In the middle, hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in nickel prices. At the end, dovish remarks from Powell restored nickel prices. Overall, the price fluctuations were limited. The spot premium and discount remained stable, with Jinchuan nickel in the 2100 - 2600 range and imported nickel in the 300 - 600 range [8][9]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Trump's tariff diplomacy was widespread in August, with trade frictions between the US and many countries. The US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policies may affect future tariff disturbances. The US economic data was not optimistic, with inflation rising, the labor market weakening, and consumer spending conservative. There was a risk of stagflation. However, the upcoming rate cut in September may boost market sentiment [13][14][15]. Domestic - China's economic data was relatively stable in August. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. Inventory circulation was smooth. However, inflation data was mixed, and consumer spending was not strong. The domestic economy relied heavily on fiscal support, with government bond financing playing a major role in social financing. There were still structural risks [16][17]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply and Cost - Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to be looser, with a decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in late August. In July, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories rose. However, high - grade nickel ore remained in short supply [18][20]. Smelting Profit and Supply - In August, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year. In July, the smelting profit of integrated electrowinning nickel improved, but it may decline in August due to rising costs and falling nickel prices. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia, while exports also increased. Currently, export profits are in a loss state, which may affect future exports [21][23]. Nickel - Iron Cost and Demand - In July, the price of high - nickel pig iron first fell and then rose. In August, the production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants improved, but cost pressure remained. In September, the production of stainless steel is expected to increase, which may improve the profit of nickel - iron smelting. In July, the import of nickel - iron increased slightly, and the import and export of stainless steel showed different trends [25][26][27]. Sulfuric Nickel Market - In August, the price of sulfuric nickel showed a differentiated trend. The production of sulfuric nickel decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The inventory of the industry chain decreased, indicating smooth resource circulation. The profit of high - ice - nickel to sulfuric nickel was positive, while other processes were in the red. In July, imports increased, and exports decreased slightly [30][31]. New Energy Vehicle Market - From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, but the growth rate slowed down in July. In July, the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In the future, the growth rate of consumption will slow down, but there is still room for growth, and subsidy policies will play a supporting role [34][35]. Inventory Situation - As of August 29, domestic refined nickel social inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. In the future, with the import window open and limited domestic supply growth, and considering the production increase of steel mills and the seasonal peak of the power end, inventory may decrease during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [37][38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: There is no maintenance plan at home and abroad, but the smelting profit is expected to decline, and domestic production is expected to be stable but weak. The import window is open, and overseas resources may flow in [40]. - Demand: Steel mills' production is expected to increase, and the largest demand terminal may replenish inventory. The growth rate of the power terminal has slowed down but still has growth potential [40]. - Cost: Nickel ore supply is becoming looser, and the cost center is expected to move down [40]. - Macro: As the interest - rate cut approaches, the macro - expectation is positive, but tariff disturbances should be watched out for. Overall, the nickel price may rise as the interest - rate cut nears, with the replenishment expectation of steel mills and positive macro - sentiment [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Weak employment data in the US has significantly increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% chance of a rate cut in September according to Fedwatch [1] - The weakening employment data and rising easing expectations are favorable for gold prices, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow due to the rising rate cut expectations and the industrial attributes of silver in a pro-cyclical context [1][8] Market Analysis - In August, the ADP employment in the US increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [1] - The ISM services PMI in the US in August was 52, with the new orders index jumping 5.7 points to 56, the largest increase since September last year [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was not provided, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,851.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,773.00 yuan/kg, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 788,714 lots, and the open interest was 248,568 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.159%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.571%, down 0.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions increased by 246 lots and the short positions increased by 222 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 475,014 lots, up 13.86% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,537,386 lots, up 36.19% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15,230.57 tons, down 50.83 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -16.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -913.19 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.19, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.56, up 0.85% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 73,492 kg, up 4.59% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 580,972 kg, up 55.37% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 18,670 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,270 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract may oscillate between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract may oscillate between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]

Core Insights - Spot gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,550 per ounce, with a significant increase of over 35% [1] - COMEX gold also hit a record of $3,616.9 per ounce, marking a notable milestone in the gold market [1] ETF Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF (Jia Shi, 159831) has increased by 0.32%, with a weekly cumulative rise of 3.79% as of September 4, 2025 [1][3] - The Shanghai Gold ETF recorded a turnover of 5.62% and a transaction volume of 37.2172 million yuan [3] - Over the past two years, the net value of the Shanghai Gold ETF has risen by 70.90% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 10.00%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 6 months and the highest consecutive gain percentage at 8.28% [3] Market Trends - The average net value growth rate for 20 gold ETFs this year is approximately 42% [3] - The total scale of these 20 gold ETFs has reached 160.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 87.7 billion yuan this year, effectively doubling in size [3] - Analysts suggest that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may enhance gold's investment appeal, amid ongoing concerns regarding U.S. government debt and interest payments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the rising trend of gold prices, with the New York gold reaching the $3600 mark, driven by increased market demand for safe-haven assets as equity markets show signs of weakness [3] - The World Gold Council is set to launch "digital gold," aiming to create a new method for gold trading, settlement, and collateral usage, allowing gold to circulate in a digital format within the gold ecosystem [2] - Recent data indicates that the ADP employment numbers in the U.S. for August increased by 54,000, falling short of the market expectation of 65,000, which has led to heightened speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a turnover of 1.19% with a transaction volume of 338 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 874 million yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [2] - Leveraged funds continue to position themselves in the gold market, with the net financing amount for the gold ETF fund reaching 2.9322 million yuan, and the latest financing balance at 3.542 billion yuan [3] - Technical analysis suggests that both New York and London gold have broken through the upper range of the consolidation phase since the second quarter, indicating strong upward momentum [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The slowdown in US ADP employment growth has led to a softening of the US job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, but the domestic risk appetite has significantly cooled, causing gold prices to fluctuate and close lower. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge, and gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - The weakening of domestic risk preference has caused silver prices to decline. However, the slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market have increased expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce. The gold basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3003 kilograms to 43254 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly, risk preference declined, and silver prices fell. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce. The silver basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 11811 kilograms to 1227039 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expected factors include US non - farm payrolls, the final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP, speeches by Fed members, and China's August foreign exchange reserves on Sunday. The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and other data indicate a softening job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge. Gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market increase expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan per kilogram. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:00: Speech by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) [15]. - Time TBD: 2025 World Intelligent Industry Expo from September 5 - 8 [15]. - 14:00: UK retail sales for July [15]. - 17:00: Final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP [15]. - 20:30: US August non - farm payroll report (including employment population, unemployment rate, average hourly wage) and Canada's August employment report [15]. - Sunday: China's August foreign exchange reserves and an OPEC + meeting of eight oil - producing countries on oil production policies [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 43254 kilograms, an increase of 3003 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 4, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1227039 kilograms, a daily increase of 11811 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended for long - positions. Gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring in the long - term, while silver has strong demand and limited supply growth in the medium - to - long - term [1][2][3] - Copper is recommended to hold long positions. It is an important strategic resource in the China - US game, with tight copper concentrate supply and booming green copper demand [1][5][6] - Zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. There is a lack of demand and inventory accumulation in the short - term, and supply will increase while demand decreases in the long - term [1][9] - Lead shows a trend of being under pressure on rebounds due to the recovery of primary lead production, more shutdowns of secondary lead enterprises, and average performance in the downstream battery consumption peak season [1] - Tin is under pressure because of the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, routine maintenance of large domestic smelters, and the off - season of downstream traditional consumption [1] - Aluminum is under pressure on rebounds. Although the downstream processing industry has slightly recovered, the supply of bauxite is relatively abundant and inventory is accumulating [1][12] - Nickel is in a weak trend. The supply of refined nickel is high, and the de - stocking rhythm of downstream stainless steel may slow down [1][16] - Industrial silicon is cautiously recommended for long - positions. Supply pressure increases, but it can be treated with a low - buying strategy after stabilization [1] - Polysilicon is recommended for long - positions. There is an expected increase in production in September, but enterprises will limit sales, and downstream inventory - building demand is increasing [1] - Lithium carbonate is cautiously recommended for long - positions. Total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the expectation of inventory reduction supports the price [1][20][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the slowdown of US employment data and the challenge to the Fed's independence, the gold price soared and then fluctuated. Silver followed the gold market and adjusted more sharply [1][2] - **Basic Logic**: US employment indicators have slowed down significantly, and a September interest rate cut is imminent. The Trump administration has increased pressure on the Fed. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged. In the short - term, gold has support around 804, and silver has support around 9630. A low - buying strategy is recommended [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper prices were under pressure and fell back, testing the support of moving averages [5] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will gradually pick up, and the overall supply - demand is in a tight balance [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and some can take profits. Enterprises can actively arrange selling hedging. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc prices were under pressure and fluctuated narrowly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. However, it is the off - season for demand, and domestic inventory is accumulating [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold existing short positions and pay attention to the support at 22,000. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy on rebounds is maintained [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing slightly, and inventory is accumulating. The demand side has slightly recovered. The supply of alumina is expected to remain loose in the short - term [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to try long positions at low prices for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise start - up rates [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure and fell back, and stainless steel also showed a downward trend [15] - **Industrial Logic**: There is an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The supply of refined nickel is excessive, and the de - stocking effect of stainless steel is weakening [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to changes in downstream inventory [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, rising more than 2% during the session [19] - **Industrial Logic**: The export of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased in August. Domestic production is stable, and terminal demand is approaching the peak season, with inventory showing a downward trend [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended within the range of 73,000 - 75,000 [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reduction of internal and external lead inventories supports the price of lead [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Shanghai lead main contract closing price was 16,860 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; LME lead 3M electronic trading closing price was 1,994.5 dollars/ton, down 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead main contract trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots; LME lead trading volume was 3,791 lots, a decrease of 1,768 lots [1] - Shanghai lead main contract open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots; LME lead open interest was 158,193 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots [1] - Shanghai 1 lead premium/discount was -35 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -43.09 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.59 [1] - PB00 - PB01 was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; import premium/discount was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Lead ingot spot import profit and loss was -531.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72; Shanghai lead continuous - three import profit and loss was -561.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.74 [1] - Shanghai lead futures inventory was 55,044 tons, a decrease of 830 tons; LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons [1] - Scrap electric vehicle battery price was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME lead cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons, a decrease of 3,325 tons [1] - Recycled refined lead price was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25; recycled lead comprehensive profit and loss was -331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 [1] 2. News - Weak US JOLTS job vacancy data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to threaten with tariffs and oppose the UN shipping emission agreement [1] 3. Lead Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral stance [1]