自年初以来，国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步，持续攀升并突破3700美元/盎司大关，累计上涨 超过1000美元/盎司，年内涨幅达40%。 受此影响，国内品牌金饰价格随之上扬。近日，智通财经记者走访市场发现，多家首饰金品牌也上调金 价，比如周生生足金饰品报价1105元/克，较前一日1090元/克上涨15元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品报价1097 元/克，较前一日1084元/克上涨13元/克。 智通财经9月24日讯 （记者 曹韵仪）继美联储开启降息周期后，黄金价格不断突破新高。截至今日发 稿，COMEX黄金价格约为每盎司3758.40美元。 当地时间9月23日，COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，盘中一度涨至3824.60美元/盎司创盘 中历史新高，现货黄金日内一度升破3790美元/盎司，刷新历史新高，不过在美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲 话后，涨幅收窄，最终日内涨幅为0.46% 今年以来，金价累积涨幅接近40%，国内品牌金饰价格也随之上扬，智通财经记者近日走访调研市场和 机构发现，不少投资者也犯了"恐高症"，进退两难。多家机构虽然进一步上调对金价的预期，但也同时 持续提示国际形势的风险。 "美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell mentioned that there are risks of rising inflation and falling employment, and the Fed needs to balance. The US September PMI was in line with expectations, with stocks adjusting, the dollar index fluctuating weakly, gold hitting a new high, and oil prices rising due to supply disruptions. Domestically, the stock, bond, and commodity markets all adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state with limited allocation space. [2][3] - Precious metals continued to rise, driven by factors such as the Fed's expected interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, a weak dollar, and the repair of the gold - silver ratio. They may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space, considering the Fed's policy stance and fundamental factors. [6][7] - Aluminum is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space, as market sentiment is cautious and fundamentals show improving consumption. [8][10] - Alumina continues to be weak, dominated by supply - side pressure. [11] - Zinc prices are expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space, as the market stabilizes and short - term consumption is disrupted by weather. [12] - Lead prices may decline as supply is expected to increase, although short - term support from pre - holiday stocking exists. [13][14] - Tin prices will maintain a high - level volatile trend, with their movement following market sentiment, as the raw material supply and demand contradiction is not significantly improved. [15] - Industrial silicon is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, considering supply growth and demand - side factors. [16][17] - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating as the market is avoiding policy risks, although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals. [18][19] - Nickel prices are fluctuating with limited driving factors, and the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] - Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a clear long - term downward trend due to supply surplus, but geopolitical factors are causing short - term disruptions. [22][23] - For soda ash and glass, the fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as spot trading is poor. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with supply and demand factors affecting the market. [26] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Powell stated that inflation and employment risks coexist, and the Fed's decision - making is not driven by political factors. The US September S&P manufacturing and services PMI were in line with expectations, both in the expansion range. Stocks adjusted, the dollar index was weak, gold reached a new high, and oil prices rose. [2] - Domestic: The stock, bond, and commodity markets adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates rose to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.58% to $3796.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce. Driven by multiple factors, precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance in the long term but may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and LME copper hovered around the $10,000 mark. Considering the Fed's policy and fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,685 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. Due to market caution and improving fundamentals, it is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - The futures main contract closed at 2877 yuan per ton, down 1.94%. With supply pressure, it continues to be weak. [11] 3.6 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract had an intraday decline and a night - session sideways movement. Affected by weather and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space. [12] 3.7 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract declined. With the expected increase in supply, lead prices may decline after the pre - holiday stocking phase. [13][14] 3.8 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract had a high - level volatile trend. Although consumption improvement is limited, the raw material supply and demand contradiction supports tin prices, and its movement follows market sentiment. [15] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon declined. With supply growth and demand - side factors, it is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. [16][17] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, the market is avoiding the risk of the September 30 lithium mine ruling. [18][19] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. With limited driving factors and unclear disturbances from Indonesian mine suspensions, the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] 3.12 Crude Oil - Oil prices had a night - session gap - up opening. In the short term, they are expected to be volatile due to geopolitical factors, while in the long term, a downward trend is clear due to supply surplus. [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated, and the glass main contract was slightly stronger. The fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated and declined slightly. With poor spot trading, prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. [25] 3.15 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [26] 3.16 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The report provides trading data for various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and positions on September 23. [27] 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - It presents detailed industrial data for metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including inventory, spot quotes, and price differentials on September 23 and September 22. [29][33]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, with fundamental factors and geopolitical sanctions risks diverging. The U.S. President Trump called on European countries to "stop buying" Russian oil, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The EU's sanctions on Russia targeted shadow fleets, Russian banks, and Russian oil buyers. Russia's refined oil exports declined significantly due to drone attacks, while its crude oil net exports remained high. Iran's crude oil exports did not decline. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with the absolute level similar to that in 2019, the highest in the past five years. In September's preliminary data, OPEC's crude oil net exports rebounded significantly. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits were divided, with U.S. refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operations rising overall, and European and American refinery operations declining. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous levels, the fundamentals will turn to the off - season, and the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 17 - 23, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $62.28 - $64.05, with a change of $1.13; BRENT prices fluctuated from $66.57 - $67.95, with a change of $1.06; DUBAI prices fluctuated from $69.74 - $70.50, with a change of $0.07. Other related product prices such as domestic gasoline, diesel, and various oil - related spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defense agreement, which is unlikely to change Saudi Arabia's energy relations with India. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in July decreased by 551,000 barrels per day to 9.201 million barrels per day. Iran's Foreign Minister set off for New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly, and Iran will hold foreign - minister - level talks with Germany, France, and the UK [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%; the four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. From September 12 - 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased, domestic gasoline and diesel production increased, inventories increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4][5].

来源：四川在线-华西都市报 再创历史新高 综合新华社、中国证券报 新闻分析 金价还会涨吗？ 今年以来，国际现货黄金涨幅已近43%，以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计上涨超36%。 "美联储如期降息后，市场关注点转向年内后续降息路径。"东方金诚分析师瞿瑞认为，美联储降息将直 接降低持有无息黄金的机会成本，同时打压美元指数，此外地缘冲突仍然频发，这些因素均对金价构成 支撑。 贺利氏贵金属中国区交易总监陆伟佳表示，8月份，上海黄金交易所黄金实物出库量出现逆季节性下 滑，高金价对亚洲地区黄金实物消费的抑制逐渐显现。从当月黄金ETF来看，尽管全球黄金ETF保持净 流入，但亚洲地区的投资者反而减持4.8吨，这导致亚洲交易时段黄金涨势相对乏力。 9月22日，记者对北京地区多家品牌珠宝店进行实地走访发现，临近国庆、中秋假期，不少品牌珠宝店 推出优惠活动，但优惠力度整体较小。 "最近几天，金价一直在涨。目前金价属于历史高位。国庆、中秋节假日期间会有一些额外的优惠活 动，但如果按照目前的金价计算，预计优惠完每克的价格也要在千元左右。"北京一家周大生门店销售 人员说。 从现场销售情况看，受金价高企影响，销售量整体较为平淡。"目前，每个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to reach record highs despite macroeconomic challenges, with expectations for volatility in Q3 but a positive outlook for AI and capital expenditure into next year [1][2]. Market Predictions - The year-end target for the market is projected at around 6,600, with a potential rise to 6,900 by mid-next year and a bull case of 7,200 [2]. - The current market level is expected to remain stable, with buying opportunities during Q3 volatility [3]. Gold Market Insights - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, with two more rate cuts expected by year-end and possibly two additional cuts in Q1 next year, is seen as favorable for gold [4]. - Central bank purchases of gold continue, indicating ongoing diversification amid rising geopolitical concerns and a slowing economy, which are all positive factors for gold prices [5]. Labor Market and Economic Conditions - A dual economic scenario is emerging, with significant infrastructure investment alongside a weakening labor market, projected to see unemployment rise to 4.8% by year-end [6][7]. - The Fed's easing cycle is viewed as beneficial for risk assets, despite the current elevated market levels [7]. Tariff Implications - The effective tariff rate is currently around 18%, significantly up from 2.5% at the start of the current administration, with potential increases to 20% if sectoral tariffs are implemented [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have reached a new historical record, surpassing $3,750 per ounce, marking the 36th closing record for gold prices this year [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Gold prices have been supported by ongoing purchases from major global central banks and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that despite potential short-term fluctuations, the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, breaking through $3,720, reaching a historic high, driven by a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks, which favor the non-yielding gold market [1]. Technical Overview - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has re-entered the overbought territory, hovering around 73.50, indicating potential for further price increases [3]. - If buying momentum continues, gold prices may retest the historical high of $3,708. A daily close above this level could open the path to the $3,750 region [3]. - Conversely, gold prices may challenge the psychological level of $3,650; a break below this could lead to testing last week's low of $3,627, with $3,600 serving as a potential support level [4]. Fundamental Overview - Despite a continuous rebound in the USD, gold prices have risen for five consecutive weeks, maintaining proximity to the historical high of $3,708.5 set last Wednesday [6]. - The Federal Reserve's policy statement was less dovish than expected, and optimistic U.S. data has continued to support the dollar's rise, prompting traders to cover short positions amid perceived excessive selling [6]. - Traders are preparing for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator, set to be released on Friday, which may provide new directional momentum for gold prices [6]. - The market is closely monitoring a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on future rate cuts, especially with expectations of two more cuts by year-end [6]. - Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions may impact the dollar's performance, subsequently affecting gold prices, alongside trade concerns between the U.S. and India and new geopolitical developments that could influence future gold price trends [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is oscillating with an upward bias, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. This is due to short - term risk - aversion factors such as the phased achievement of trade agreements but renewed concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the start of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East also support the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts within the year. The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.78% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D, all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold main - contract closing price was $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes. The gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.77% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 8.36% from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.57% [3]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai gold market showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 31.89% compared to the previous day [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D, showed increases. For example, the Comex silver main - contract closing price was $43.37 per ounce, up 3.00% from the previous day [7]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of silver showed different changes. The spread between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver decreased by 7.40% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver main contract, and silver TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 0.93% from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory of silver decreased by 0.20% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai silver market decreased, and the net short positions also showed different changes [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% [9]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth Data**: The year - on - year CPI increased by 0.20 percentage points, and the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points [11]. - **Interest Rate Spread and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 3.02%, and the US - Europe interest rate spread (10 - year bond yield) increased by 1.37% [9][11]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index increased by 4.21%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 0.41%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.02% [12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest - rate ranges at different Fed meetings is provided, showing a trend of possible interest - rate cuts in the future [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the restart of the easing cycle [2] - The Fed's assessment of the labor market shifted from "labor market remains solid" to "employment growth is slowing," indicating a cautious approach to risk management in the context of the rate cut [2] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.8%, while maintaining the inflation level for 2025 and slightly increasing the inflation forecast for 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Fed expressed concerns about inflation, particularly due to potential impacts from the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could lead to a scenario of "stagflation" if inflation rises uncontrollably [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, such as a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, the Fed may consider aggressive measures, including a potential 50 basis point rate cut [3] - If the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the Fed may adopt a more aggressive easing approach, potentially exceeding the projected one rate cut in 2026, influenced by the upcoming midterm elections [3] Group 3 - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Fed is a key factor driving gold prices higher, alongside concerns about the credibility of the U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Gaza situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market uncertainty and supporting gold prices [4] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with the potential to challenge the $3700 mark, indicating that the bull market for gold is not yet over [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices surged past the $3700 mark, reaching a high of $3757, approaching the historical high of $3800, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The immediate catalyst for the price increase is the strong market expectation for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following a 25 basis point cut last week, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in Gaza, have heightened investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, emphasizing its value during uncertain political and economic times [1] - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding further rate cuts, with some officials suggesting limited room for additional cuts if inflation risks rise [1] Technical Analysis - The gold (XAUUSD) chart indicates a bullish breakout above the $3700 resistance level, suggesting continued upward momentum [4] - The MACD indicator shows that the bullish momentum is dominant, although a short-term adjustment may occur due to a recent death cross in the fast and slow lines [4] Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is recommended around $3728, with a stop loss at $3712 and a target range of $3748 to $3758 [5] Silver Analysis - The silver (XAGUSD) chart reveals a standard head and shoulders bottom formation, with a strong bullish trend following a breakout to new highs [8] - The MACD indicator for silver also indicates a dominant bullish trend, although a short-term adjustment may be expected due to a recent death cross [8] Silver Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is suggested around $43.40, with a stop loss at $43.20 and a target range of $43.80 to $44.20 [9] Economic Calendar - Key economic indicators and speeches from various central bank officials are scheduled, including manufacturing PMI data from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as remarks from Federal Reserve officials [9]