Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core View - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and a weak intraday view. The supply - demand surplus dominates, leading to an oscillating and weak trend in crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1] - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend with a slight decline in price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the price of domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillating and weak trend [5] Driving Factors - During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks increased rapidly due to the US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's threat to other South American countries, which may be an important geopolitical factor for post - holiday oil price increases [5] - The long - term and medium - term logic for the decline in oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The concern about global supply surplus persists, causing a pessimistic sentiment among investors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 616.8 yuan/gram, with a 6.02% increase; the palladium main contract was 471.9 yuan/gram, with a 5.16% increase [1] - Due to weak US dollar and geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to maintain a strong trend, while palladium may continue to rise due to geopolitical risks and spot shortages [1][2] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important growth point in the future [1] - Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Main Logic - Trump may announce the next Fed Chair candidate in January, and the future interest - rate cut path is still optimistic; the geopolitical risk has fermented again after the US military raid in Venezuela on January 3, which may further intensify price fluctuations [1] - By the close on January 6, the premium of the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 26.6 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged [1] - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future [1] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding. The combination of "interest - rate cut + soft landing" will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [1] Outlook - With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the price may continue to have wide - range fluctuations, and investors should trade cautiously. They can pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying after sufficient adjustment [2] - Regarding arbitrage strategies, wait for the price difference to widen again and then continue to pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity; when the price difference between platinum and palladium converges, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium [2] Palladium Main Logic - The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report is not yet released, resulting in a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [2] - Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides support for the bottom of the palladium price [2] Outlook - With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, the price fluctuations intensify, and investors should trade cautiously [2] - For arbitrage strategies, take profit on the internal - external positive arbitrage temporarily and participate in going long on platinum and shorting on palladium opportunistically [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2387.24, +2.43%), the Commodity 20 Index (2730.32, +2.47%), and the Industrial Products Index (2317.00, +2.19%) [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 6, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2838.75, with a daily increase of 5.69%, a 5 - day increase of 6.06%, a 1 - month increase of 10.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.69% [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will drive the upward trend. However, the large influx of investment funds also means significant price volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading mindset but strictly control the position size. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. For conservative traders, they can consider cross - variety arbitrage by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The decline of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 to 47.9% supported the market's expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy. Trump's expression of the desire to annex Greenland, along with liquidity premiums and geopolitical risks, pushed the precious metals sector to continue its strong performance. However, London gold faced selling pressure around $4,500 per ounce, and the market was cautious before the release of the December non - farm payroll data. It is believed that the correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within precious metals. This week, attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and Russia - Ukraine, the US December non - farm payroll data, and China's price and financial data [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Although Trump's 2.0 government has basically completed the internal restructuring of federal agencies and the reconstruction of the foreign trade system, Trump will still focus on promoting the MAGA reform process in 2026, with an emphasis on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks around the world will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, the strategic value of rare precious metals, and liquidity premiums in the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold [5]. Main Macro Events/Data - **Venezuelan Situation**: Venezuelan President Maduro, who was arrested by the US, pleaded not guilty in a US court on Monday, and his wife Cilia Flores also pleaded not guilty. The next court session is scheduled for March 17. In Caracas, Maduro's vice - president Rodriguez was sworn in as the interim president of Venezuela, expressing support for Maduro but not indicating resistance to US actions. The Trump administration plans to meet with executives of US oil companies later this week to discuss increasing Venezuela's oil production after the arrest of Maduro [17]. - **US Manufacturing Index**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024, and it has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. New orders further shrank, and input costs continued to rise, indicating that the industry is still deeply affected by the Trump administration's import tariffs. Although the possibility of a short - term manufacturing recovery is small, economists still hope for a rebound this year as Trump's tax - cut policy takes effect [17]. - **Trump's Desire to Annex Greenland**: US President Trump has repeatedly expressed his hope to annex Greenland. He said in an interview with The Atlantic on Sunday that "we really need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense." The leader of Greenland responded that it was enough, and Denmark's European allies also reiterated that the future of this Arctic island must be determined by its people [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices driven by geopolitical tensions and strong market demand, with gold reaching $4505.70 per ounce and silver surpassing $80 per ounce [1][2] - The geopolitical unrest following the U.S. control of Venezuelan leaders has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards these precious metals [1] - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a net total of 45 tons of gold in November 2025, with total purchases from January to November 2025 nearing 297 tons, reflecting ongoing strong demand from emerging market central banks [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that gold and silver are evolving from mere inflation hedges to foundational assets in the global economy, with gold being viewed as a key monetary asset and alternative to the U.S. dollar [2] - The report emphasizes that the strong performance of gold and silver at the beginning of 2026 indicates that the underlying drivers for price increases remain robust, with concerns over currency devaluation and fiscal sustainability continuing to support demand for hard assets [2] - UBS Wealth Management analysts predict that factors such as central bank gold purchases, increasing fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and persistent geopolitical risks will drive gold prices to reach $5000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026 [2]

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •委石油已成囊中物？ 美油企高管持异议 •德国总理：提振经济将成2026年首要任务 •美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）5日评论说，美国总统特朗普可能就委内瑞拉石油作出了重大误判。特朗 普对美国能源企业有望获取委内瑞拉庞大石油资源感到兴奋，但行业消息人士告诉CNN，美国石油行 业高管不太可能贸然进军委内瑞拉，原因包括当地实际情况变数大，委内瑞拉石油基础设施老化，以及 该国曾采取石油资产国有化的措施等。 •多家欧洲市场机构日前认为，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击并强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇可能 加剧投资者对地缘政治不确定性的担忧，对石油市场供应和风险预期造成影响。 •德国总理默茨近日在致执政联盟成员的一封信中表示，德国经济形势在某些领域"非常严峻"，2026年 应将提振经济作为首要任务。 •英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会6日公布的数据显示，2025年英国新车注册量同比增长3.5%至202万辆， 自新冠疫情以来首次超过200万辆。电动汽车需求增长成为推动英国车市回暖的重要因素，中国汽车品 牌的市场表现引发关注。 •沙特资本市场管理局宣布，将自2月1日起向所有类别的外国投资者开放资本市场，允许其 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026, driven by central bank purchases, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Commodity Market Outlook - The overall commodity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant returns anticipated due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and global energy transition trends [1][3]. - UBS is particularly optimistic about investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and agricultural products, while gold remains a valuable asset for risk diversification in investment portfolios [1][2]. Specific Commodity Insights - Copper and aluminum are expected to face further supply shortages, driven by the ongoing global clean energy transition and electrification, making them core investment assets [2]. - Oil prices are projected to rebound in the second half of the year as current oversupply conditions ease with steady demand growth and slowing supply growth from non-OPEC producers [2]. Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are expected to rise throughout the year, supported by central bank purchases, large fiscal deficits, declining U.S. real interest rates, and persistent geopolitical risks [2][3]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, with a projected decline to around $4,800 by the end of 2026 [3]. Political and Financial Risks - If political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially reach $5,400 per ounce, an increase from the previous target of $4,900 [4].

昨日1月6日（星期二），黄金早盘开盘上涨4460受阻回落，在下探4428附近后回升上涨；欧盘在4476附近受阻回落，下探4442附近后回升上涨；美盘在4491 附近受阻，下探4463附近后上涨，凌晨最高上涨至4497/4498附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、地缘政治风险升温 美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，逮捕总统马杜罗并押送至纽约，引发委内瑞拉政治格局动荡，国际社会紧张氛围加剧，推动避险资金流入黄金市场。特朗普 计划会见石油公司高管，商讨重振委内瑞拉石油产业，进一步强化市场对地缘风险的担忧。 特朗普重申控制格陵兰岛的意图，其幕僚淡化国际法与丹麦主权引发欧洲多国反对，法、英、德等七国领导人发表联合声明维护格陵兰岛相关主权，凸显全 球地缘政治不稳定性，为金价提供额外支撑。 2、美联储政策与经济数据预期 市场普遍预期美联储2026年将实施两次降息，里奇蒙联储主席表示货币政策需根据数据精细调整，平衡失业与通胀风险。 市场密切关注周五公布的美国非农就业报告，预计12月新增就业岗位约6万个，略低于前月，该数据将为美联储利率路径提供重要线索。 3、今日关注 01.07 三 下一 川才 2个 否 1 年 - 周 三 ...

本周二，金属市场延续周一涨势全面爆发。伦镍领衔工业金属大涨，盘中一度涨超9%，纽约期银盘中涨超6%，逼近一周前所创的盘中最高纪录，伦 铜在周一史上首次突破1.3万美元关口后进一步走高，周二盘中涨超3%，连续两日创历史新高。纽约期金盘中涨超1%，抹平上周一芝商所（CME） 提高交易保证金以来多数跌幅，向圣诞节前所创的最高纪录靠近。 中国投资者成为本轮金属涨势的重要推手。交易动态显示，包括镍、铜和锡在内的金属价格在亚洲时段大幅跳涨，交易量激增，上海期货交易所夜 盘开盘后再次拉升。周二日间收盘时，沪银涨超7%，沪铜、沪锡、沪镍涨超4%，夜盘开盘，沪镍涨近5%，沪银涨近3%，沪锡涨超2%，沪铜涨超 1%。 特朗普政府潜在关税政策持续发酵。据一些报道，美国总统特朗普考虑2027年对进口铜征收约15%的关税，2028年提高至30%。投资者对美国提高关 税的预期导致大量铜库存涌入美国。据CME数据，美国铜库存自2025年4月以来增长超过四倍，截至1月2日达到45.345万吨，而全球其他地区供应告 急。 地缘政治风险推升避险需求。据新华社报道，美国1月3日上周六凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控 ...

央行方面，全球央行购金趋势未改，黄金在国际储备体系中的地位持续提升。央行购金不仅为市场提供 结构性买盘，更从信心层面强化了黄金的货币属性。 另从美元方面来看，2025年第四季度，美元自100关口上方回落，一定程度上减轻了以美元计价的黄金 的压力。同时，白银、铂金等贵金属板块联动走强，市场资金流入明显，反映投资者对贵金属整体配置 意愿增强。 新华财经北京1月6日电 2025年第四季度，国际金价开盘价格3859.03美元，最高4550.52美元，最低 3819.10美元，收盘价格4318.27美元。整个季度波动731.42美元，上涨459.86美元，涨幅11.92%，季度K 线呈现有长上影线的大阳线形态，显示金价的多空博弈剧烈， 2025年全年上涨约64%，创下自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。整体来看，金价整体强势，但四季度内分 别于10月底和12月底两次创出单日近300美元的大幅调整，市场波动率显著上升，反映市场在历史高位 附近的多空博弈加剧。 综合来看，在4000美元的历史高位上方， 2026年一季度金价的多空博弈将更加剧烈，大幅调整或将成 为常态。 2025年四季度金价走势在美联储降息预期、地缘风险及央行购 ...