Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It also analyzes the impact of weather on crop production and the influence of various economic data on the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 08 was 3917.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.33%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 66.65, up 2.08% previously and 0.56% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 07 closed at 64.77, up 2.40% previously and 0.39% overnight [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.50%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.1845, down 0.03% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8590, with a basis of 500 and no change from the previous day. In East China, it was 8490, with a basis of 400 and a decrease of 20 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2840, with a basis of - 159 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.09%, with a 19.16% increase in yield and a 0.01% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - As of the week ending June 3, CBOT soybean long - positions decreased by 3097 lots to 191916 lots, and short - positions increased by 9517 lots to 131969 lots [7]. - The FAO vegetable oil price index in May averaged 152.2 points, down 5.8 points (3.7%) month - on - month but still 19.1% higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Macro - news International News - The US non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations [15]. - The eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revision was 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.2% [15]. Domestic News - On June 6, the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan on that day [17]. - China's central bank's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [17]. 3.5 Key Information Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in April increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a significant increase in production and the report's impact being negative [18]. - The USDA May supply - demand report increased US soybean exports in the 24/25 season by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels [19]. 3.6 Capital Flow - On June 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.883 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 7.127 billion yuan in stock index futures [22].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including economic data releases, policy meetings, and international events [2]. - The outcomes of these events, such as economic data deviations from expectations, can influence different types of futures prices, including commodity, treasury bond, and stock index futures [4][7]. Key Events and Their Impacts June 9 - **China-US Economic and Trade Consultation**: Deputy Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The results may affect relevant futures prices [3]. - **China's May CPI and PPI**: Expected CPI to decline by 0.2% year-on-year (previous: +0.1%), and PPI to decline by 3.2% year-on-year (previous: -2.7%). A lower CPI and larger PPI decline may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures [4]. - **China's May Import and Export Data**: Expected export growth of 5% year-on-year (previous: 8.1%) and import decline of 0.9% year-on-year (previous: -0.2%). Lower growth rates may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures [7]. June 10 - **Press Conference on Livelihood Policies**: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies to improve people's livelihood. The content may impact the futures market [8]. June 11 - **EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report**: The US Energy Information Administration will release the report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [9]. - **US May CPI**: Expected unadjusted CPI to rise 2.5% year-on-year (previous: 2.3%) and 0.3% month-on-month (previous: 0.2%); core CPI to rise 2.9% year-on-year (previous: 2.8%) and 0.2% month-on-month (previous: 0.2%). Higher values may delay the Fed's first rate cut and slightly boost commodity futures prices [10]. June 12 - **China's May Financial Data**: Expected social financing scale increment of 2280 billion yuan (previous: 1159.1 billion yuan), new RMB loans of 830 billion yuan (previous: 280 billion yuan), and M2 balance growth of 8.1% year-on-year (previous: 8.0%). Higher values may benefit stock index, commodity, and treasury bond futures [11]. - **Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Report**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release a report on agricultural products, which may affect relevant agricultural futures prices [12]. - **IEA Monthly Crude Oil Market Report**: The International Energy Agency will release the report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13]. - **US May PPI**: Expected PPI annual rate of 2.7% (previous: 2.4%), monthly rate of 0.2% (previous: -0.5%); core PPI annual rate of 3.3% (previous: 3.1%). Higher values may slightly boost industrial product futures prices [14]. - **US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims**: Expected 250,000 (previous: 247,000). A higher number may slightly boost gold and silver futures prices and suppress other industrial product futures prices [15]. - **US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change**: If inventory continues to increase, it may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. June 13 - **Fed's Quarterly Financial Account Report**: The Fed will release the report, which may affect relevant futures prices [17]. - **USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the report, which may affect relevant agricultural futures prices [18]. June 14 - **China's June Early Circulation Production Material Prices**: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 50 products in 9 categories [19]. - **US June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index**: Expected initial value of 53 (previous: 52.2). A higher value may suppress gold and silver futures prices and benefit other commodity futures prices [20]. June 15 - 17 - **G7 Summit**: The G7 Summit will be held in Canada, with President Trump attending. The meeting's content may impact the futures market [22].

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/6/9 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1134.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 982.0 | 963.0 | 997.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1126.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | FG01合约 | 1043.0 | 1018.0 | 1054.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1121.0 | 8.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX futures weakened this week, with the spot price down 2.9% week-on-week to $818/ton CFR by Friday. The weekly average price also decreased by 1.8% to $826/ton CFR. The market sentiment was bearish due to poor May PMI data in China and new short - fiber production cuts in polyester, though overall polyester开工 remained stable. Despite increased supply from some PX units restarting and ramping up, PX is expected to be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. The CFR China price of PX on June 6 was $818/ton, and with international oil prices fluctuating, there was insufficient cost guidance for PX. The domestic PX operating rate recovered to over 85%, and with some maintenance schedules postponed, there was no obvious fundamental driver [2]. - The PTA market rose due to improved market confidence from the China - US leaders' call and PTA spot de - stocking. However, with the end of the PTA maintenance peak, new capacity planned for trial runs, and more planned restarts than maintenance this week, PTA supply will increase in the month. Although most polyester products are in theoretical production losses, the announced polyester unit maintenance plans are limited, and the rigid demand is expected to be stable. In June, the domestic weaving market continued to weaken, while there were small - volume US orders. Overall, PTA prices are expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to whether new PTA capacity in East China will start trial runs in early June [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was trading in the range of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The futures of polyester raw materials and bottle - chips fluctuated slightly, and the supply - side quotes were mostly stable. The downstream buying enthusiasm was low, and the market negotiation atmosphere was average. The bottle - chip operating rate may decline, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The downstream is digesting previous inventory, and the market trading is light [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will trade in a range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 6, 2025, the WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.58/barrel, up 1.91%; the Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $66.47/barrel, up 1.73%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $560.50/ton, up 0.60%. The spot price of isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $697.50/ton, down 0.14%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00/ton, down 0.28% [1]. - **PTA Price**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4652 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4672 yuan/ton, up 0.95%. The near - month contract closing price was 4888 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the settlement price was 4894 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4884 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 4897 yuan/ton, up 1.26%, and the CCFEI PTA foreign price index on June 5 was $615.00/ton, down 1.44%. The near - far month spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the basis was 245 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan [1]. - **PX Price**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6556 yuan/ton, up 0.24%; the settlement price was 6586 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The near - month contract closing and settlement prices were both 7000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic PX spot price was 6592 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The PX CFR China Taiwan spot price was $819.00/ton, down 0.24%, and the PX FOB Korea spot price was $794.00/ton, down 0.25%. The PXN spread was $257.50/ton, down 2.17%, and the PX - MX spread was $120.50/ton, down 1.09%. The basis was 36 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [1]. - **PR Price**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 5908 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The near - month contract closing and settlement prices were both 5910 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5990 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 0 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; in the South China market, it was 90 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [1]. - **Downstream Price**: On June 6, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8925 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6490 yuan/ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 84.52%, up 3.07 percentage points. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 80.84%, unchanged; of polyester plants was 89.59%, down 0.25 percentage points; of bottle - chip plants was 82.46%, down 1.36 percentage points; of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.09%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On June 6, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 44.00%, down 12 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 71.00%, up 7 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 52.00%, up 3 percentage points [1]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2].

2025 年 6 月 9 日 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 豆油：中美情绪支撑，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,110 | -0.20% | 8,130 | 0.25% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,738 | 0.81% | 7,774 | 0.47% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,140 | -0.13% | 9,140 | 0.00% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,917 | 0.36% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 47.43 | 1.67% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 626,813 | 91,154 | 419,221 | -10,733 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 379,290 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various commodities in the black series on June 9, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are in a state of wide - range oscillation or low - level oscillation, with expected repeated trends and some affected by accident disturbances or demand release factors [2][4][6][9][12][16][20]. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to be wide - range oscillating with repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of 12509 contract was 701.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan (-0.50%); the open - mouth ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%) decreased by 4.0 yuan to 820.0 yuan/ton. The base difference and spread between different contracts also changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to be in low - level oscillation [2][6]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,975 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan (0.57%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,092 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan (0.55%). Spot prices in different regions also had certain increases [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late May 2025, the average daily production of key steel enterprises showed different trends; steel production increased by 2.5% daily. On June 5, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data of different varieties changed [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to be wide - range oscillating [2][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2507 contract was 5206 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 contract was 5538 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 6, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and the inventory of manganese ore in ports changed [9]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke has completed three rounds of price cuts and is expected to be wide - range oscillating; coking coal is affected by accident disturbances and is also expected to be wide - range oscillating [2][12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of JM2509 coking coal contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan (2.84%); the futures price of J2509 coke contract was 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan (0.63%). Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [12]. - **Price and Position Information**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 6 were provided, and the position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were also mentioned [12][13][14]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is expected to be wide - range oscillating [2][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with the previous opening price of 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest price of 931.6000 yuan/ton, and the lowest price of 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic production area quotes were provided, and the position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were mentioned [17][18]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to be oscillating repeatedly [2][20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts on the log futures market changed, and the prices of different types of log spot markets were basically stable, with only a few showing slight declines [21][22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [24].

南美新豆丰收上市，美农月报即将发布，市场预期供需格局如何变化？巴西大豆预售进度放缓，农民销 售意愿如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reached 2240.35 points as of June 6, increasing by 167.64 points compared to the previous period, while the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 3.3% to 1154.98 points [1] - Major steel mills in Shandong reduced the procurement price of coking coal by 70 yuan/ton for wet quenching and 75 yuan/ton for dry quenching, effective from June 6, 2025 [1] - South32's Australian mine shipment delays are expected to lead to a decrease in the arrival of oxidized ore at Tianjin Port this month, with tight Australian ore supply anticipated to continue into next week, causing cml Australian block prices to rise [1] - The West Slope Iron Ore Project, a joint venture between Baowu and Rio Tinto, has commenced full operations with a total investment of approximately 2.4 billion AUD and an annual production capacity of 25 million tons [1] Group 2 - In June, China's soybean imports are expected to reach 12 million tons, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, with domestic soybean commercial stocks projected to increase by 3 to 4 million tons by the end of August [2] - The FAO reported a decline in global food commodity prices in May, with the FAO Food Price Index averaging 127.7 points, down 0.8% from April [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced a reduction in the trading margin level for plywood futures contracts from 40% to 15%, effective from June 9, 2025 [2]

本文旨在深入探讨期货市场的本质与特性，剖析市场参与者的不同命运，以及如何在这样一个充满变数的环境中寻找盈利的机会。我们将从市场的博弈逻 辑、经纪公司的角色、暴利的诱惑与风险、预测的误区、止损的重要性等多个角度，揭示期货市场的内在规律和成功之道。同时，我们也将强调人性与道 德在期货投资中的重要性，因为只有真正克服人性的弱点，才能达到道德的圆满，从而在期货市场中立于不败之地。 期货市场既是投资的乐园，也是人性的试炼场。在这里，每一个投资者都将面临人性的拷问和市场的考验。只有那些能够深刻理解市场规则，保持清醒头 脑，克服人性弱点的人，才能在期货市场中脱颖而出，成为真正的赢家。 7月到复旦学股票投资（颁发结业证书、深度参与校友网络） 股票市场能够创造虚拟价值，因此大家可以一起赚钱，而期货市场是一个耗散市场，赚的钱必定是他人赔的钱，而且还要交昂贵的手续费（每年需交所有 资金的１５％左右）来养活交易所和经纪公司。 通行的说法是：凡有人赚到一元，必定有人亏三元，另外两块给了交易所和经纪公司。 统计的结论是： 在期货市场，以年计，九成的人亏钱，以三年计，九五成以上的人亏钱。 可以这样说，期货是一个表面赚钱容易、实际赚钱艰难的 ...