广义货币（M_2）和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平、信贷结构持续优化、贷款利率保持在低位水 平……今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，有力支撑经济回升向好。下一步，货币政策将继续发力， 把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济的较强支持力度。 "十五五"规划建议提出，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。《报告》显示，9 月末，支持做好金融"五篇大文章"的结构性货币政策工具余额已经接近4万亿元。中国民生银行首席经济学家 温彬表示，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"、释放消费潜力，是增强经济增长动能、促进高质量发展的重要方 向，是落实"十五五"规划建议和建设金融强国的必然要求，也将成为未来金融资源持续倾斜的领域。 央行的结构性工具，主要是激励引导金融机构支持国家重大战略、经济社会发展的重点领域和薄弱环节。在 这些领域，初期社会资金进入意愿比较低，需要中央银行的资金先期进入、发挥引导作用。近年来，中国人 民银行不断丰富工具箱，发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，持续引导金融机构提升金融产品和服务 对经济结构转型升级的适配性，特别是围绕做好金融"五篇大文章"以及支持扩大内需等要求，把更多信贷资 源投向国民 ...

过去数周，贝森特不断加大对地区联储主席的公开批评力度，尤其是在多位主席公开反对在12月议息会 议上进一步降息之后。特朗普总统近期也多次指责美联储降息不够积极，政府希望借降息降低抵押贷 款、汽车贷款及信用卡等融资成本，使经济获得更多支撑。 此举被视为白宫进一步尝试影响美联储内部决策的又一信号。美联储由七名位于华盛顿的理事以及遍布 全美的12家地区联储组成，其中七名理事与纽约联储主席在每次利率决议中拥有固定投票权，其余地区 主席则轮流拥有投票席位。尽管地区主席的投票轮换，他们均参与政策会议讨论，因此在政策形成中仍 具有重要影响力。地区联储主席由当地商业和社区领袖组成的董事会提名，再交由美联储理事会批准。 特朗普已任命了三名现任理事，并正试图解除理事库克的职务，若成功将获得第四席，意味着在理事会 取得多数。然而库克已向法院提起诉讼，且最高法院允许她在案件审理期间继续任职。 此外，特朗普还在考虑提名接替明年5月任期届满的主席鲍威尔的人选。他日前称"已决定人选"，但将 在明年初宣布，而外界普遍认为国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特是最可能的接任者。贝森特点名的三 位地区联储主席均为近期任命：达拉斯联储的洛根曾长期在纽约联储 ...

（原标题：经合组织报告称哥伦比亚经济将保持温和增长） 据哥伦比亚Valora Analitik网站12月2日报道，经济合作与发展组织在最新发布的报告中指出，哥经 济将在未来几年保持温和扩张。2025 年国内生产总值预计增长 2.8%，2026 年持平为 2.8%，并在 2027 年小幅加快至 2.9%。通胀回落、劳动力市场稳健以及海外侨汇增长，将继续支撑私人消费。在金融条 件改善的带动下，投资也将进入逐步但有限的复苏轨道。在货币政策方面，报告预测哥央行将维持相对 紧缩的立场，以确保通胀回到目标区间。但通胀仍将高于 3% 的目标水平，预计 2025 年全年平均通胀 为 5.1%，2026 年为 4.6%，2027 年为 3.8%。报告还表示，由于 2026 年底的利率水平仍处于偏高区间， 哥在 2027 年能够进一步宽松货币政策的空间有限。在财政领域，由于财政规则仍处于暂停状态，哥财 政赤字将继续维持高位：预计 2025 年赤字为 占 GDP 的 7.1%，2026 年为 6.2%，2027 年为 4.9%。 ...

新华社北京12月3日电 题：护航经济运行 激发发展潜能——更加积极有为的宏观政策发力显效 新华社记者申铖、吴雨 有效的宏观政策、精准的宏观调控，是护航中国经济行稳致远的重要手段。 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，面对复杂形势，我国宏观经济治理不断创 新完善，宏观政策更加积极有为，政策"工具箱"更加丰富给力。 一项项政策因时酝酿、因势推出，一笔笔资金加速落地、惠企利民……政策效能不断转化为澎湃发 展动能，有力巩固和增强中国经济稳中向好态势，为高质量完成全年经济社会发展目标任务提供坚实支 撑。 用好用足财政货币政策 保障经济平稳健康发展 从手机、平板等消费品纳入"国补"，到育儿补贴发放、免费学前教育逐步推行，再到长江沿线铁 路、西部陆海新通道建设推进……今年以来，一系列发展大事和民生实事都离不开宏观政策的支持。 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，是在重要节点及时准确研判形势作出的工作部署，是深刻把握高质 量发展要求对复杂形势的主动应对。 "中国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，把积极因素和有利条件用足用到位，需要宏观 政策更加积极有为。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 作为宏观调控的两 ...

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the US dollar may face significant downward pressure by 2026 due to factors such as portfolio adjustments, rising foreign exchange hedging risks, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - UBS economists note that discussions regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hikes have shifted from "if" to "when," with expectations moving forward significantly due to rising labor costs and domestic demand [2] - Barclays strategists highlight that the current market for US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) does not adequately price in positive inflation risk premiums, suggesting a long position in 10-year breakeven inflation rates as a reasonable medium to long-term strategy [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings states that despite rising debt from infrastructure investments, a neutral macro environment, a robust housing market, and a strong labor market will support the stability of Australia's local government finances [3] - Mizuho Securities warns that rising interest rates could significantly increase the debt servicing costs for the UK and Japan, as both countries adjust their debt structures to rely more on short-term borrowing [2] - Nomura analysts suggest that the Bank of Korea may have ended its rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.3% in 2026, driven by improved economic prospects and rising inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have sparked significant market discussions, with some investors strategically exiting while others are buying against the trend [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices have rebounded to around $4,300, with Comex gold showing a year-to-date increase of over 60% [2]. - Gold ETFs have seen substantial inflows, with the popular gold ETF (159934) rising 53.52% this year and net inflows reaching 12.64 billion yuan [2]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market concerns about global energy and food supply chains [6][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The potential for U.S. military actions adds to market uncertainty, as recent statements from Trump suggest new military engagements could arise [8]. - The macroeconomic landscape is also shifting, with speculation about a dovish candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, which could create significant discrepancies in market expectations regarding monetary policy [10][11]. - The intertwining of geopolitical conflicts and central bank policy directions points to a future of potential macroeconomic volatility [12]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Demand - The demand for gold is supported by structural factors, with central banks expected to purchase over 800 tons of gold by the third quarter of 2025, continuing a strong trend since 2022 [16]. - The strategic motivations behind central bank gold purchases have evolved from merely diversifying foreign exchange reserves to a focus on risk mitigation [16]. - The ongoing demand for gold as a neutral asset amidst geopolitical tensions and financial sanctions enhances its strategic value [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is at a critical juncture, with traditional asset pricing models failing under high debt, volatility, and policy uncertainty, increasing the demand for reliable value storage tools like gold [19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are expected to continue driving demand for gold, as unresolved issues will sustain the need for hedging against risks [22]. - The outlook for gold remains positive, supported by expectations of a potential recession and the likelihood of rapid interest rate cuts by central banks [29][30]. Group 5: Investment Vehicles and Performance - Gold ETFs are becoming increasingly popular due to their low costs and liquidity, with the latest scale of gold ETF (159934) reaching 34.7 billion yuan [32]. - Gold stocks have also performed well, with the E Fund CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index (A: 021362; C: 021363) showing a year-to-date increase of over 79% [33]. - The index focuses on key companies in the gold and copper sectors, including major players like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [33].

【博时市场点评12月3日】两市继续调整，量能维持低位 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数继续调整，两市成交仍不足1.7万亿。海外方面，上周多数补发的数据显示政府"停 摆"前美国经济已呈现减速趋势，经济下行风险增加，美联储12月降息概率重回八成以上，本月议息会 议或呈现降息+鹰派表态的局面。国内方面，11月央行通过多种工具净投放流动性，显示货币政策维持 稳健偏宽松基调。12月将进入重要会议的政策窗口期，但当前市场对于增量政策预期或不高。当前经济 处于弱修复状态，权益市场短期或仍维持震荡格局，配置上建议均衡。 消息面 央行发布11月各项工具流动性投放情况显示，11月公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元，抵押补充贷款 （PSL）净投放254亿元，其他结构性货币政策工具净投放1150亿元，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放 1000亿元。尽管同期7天期逆回购操作为净回笼，但通过加大中长期流动性工具的运用与搭配，央行在 整体上依然实现了资金面的净投放。 简评：11月央行通过公开市场操作及各类货币政策工具合计净投放2904亿元，显示逆周期调节力度持续 加大。其中结构性工具净投放占比近40%，体现精准滴灌导向，有助于缓解实体经济融资压力。在 ...

Core Insights - The OECD's economic outlook report indicates that inflation rates in G20 economies are expected to gradually decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% by mid-2027, with most economies returning to target levels by that time [1] - There is an increasing divergence in monetary policies, with the European Central Bank potentially implementing 5-6 rate cuts throughout the year, while several Asian countries may reduce rates by 75-100 basis points [1] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in January has sparked widespread market discussion [1] - Global public debt pressures are becoming more pronounced, with OECD economies projected to reach a public debt ratio of 113% by 2027, and the U.S. national debt surpassing $36 trillion, leading to rising interest payment pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding the nomination of a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified market focus on the future direction of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Powell's Potential Continuation - Analyst Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank suggests that even if Powell's term as chairman ends, he may still choose to remain as a Federal Reserve governor, a scenario that has historical precedents [1][2] - Powell's term as a governor extends until January 2028, which is beyond his chairmanship term ending in May 2026, allowing him the legal right to continue serving [1][2] - Historical examples include Charles Hamlin, who served as a governor for 20 years after stepping down as chairman, and Marriner Eccles, who remained a governor after being replaced as chairman, both highlighting a commitment to the Federal Reserve's mission [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Independence - Wall Street is currently highly focused on the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially following recent market volatility and the upcoming nomination of Powell's successor [4] - The S&P 500 index has maintained a double-digit increase for the year, reflecting investor reliance on Federal Reserve policies and the institution's significant role in the global financial system [4] - As the nomination approaches, the market will closely monitor the implications of the new chairman on monetary policy and market stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop of $100, entering a short-term adjustment phase, but the overall bullish sentiment remains intact, with a rebound observed as it attempts to reclaim the 4200 level [1][12]. Market Movements - The gold price fell to 4163 before staging a comeback [5] - A strong rebound brought the price back above 4200, surpassing 4220 [6] - The market is now targeting the resistance level at 4244 [7] - A further breakthrough could see the price approach the 4300 resistance level [8] - If the price encounters resistance at 4244 again, it may face downward adjustments, potentially revisiting the 4200 level [9][10] Influencing Factors - Investors took profits, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, compounded by warnings from the OECD regarding global central bank debt, which may signal the end of the interest rate cut cycle and tighter monetary policies, negatively impacting gold [13] - Political pressures, including Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and potential changes in leadership, have contributed to a weaker dollar, while military actions have led to a rebound in gold prices [14] Upcoming Events - The release of the ADP employment report is anticipated to impact market expectations and could lead to significant fluctuations in gold prices [15] - Economic data from September and November is expected to influence the strength of the dollar and the volatility of gold [15] Risk Management and Strategy - Emphasis on the importance of accurately determining entry and exit points for gold investments, which requires extensive practical experience [15] - The company claims a high accuracy rate of 85% in gold trading, with strategies aimed at minimizing risk while maximizing profit potential [15]