1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [9] - Aluminium Alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminium prices has increased, suppressing consumption. Although it's the off - season, the rapid inventory accumulation due to the late Spring Festival makes short - term price downward transmission difficult. Macro factors are the long - term driving force for price increase, but short - term large fluctuations caused by capital need to be watched out [6]. - In the alumina market, the electrolytic aluminium procurement price in the spot market is still falling slightly, the cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in surplus, and the social inventory is increasing. Although there is a large amount of capital inflow, there is no support for the absolute price increase [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminium Price and Inventory - **Spot Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 24,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 60 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount data were also provided for Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,750 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, with a change of - 210 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the position was 370,981 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 13, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 730,000 tons, with a change of 16,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 100,762 tons, with a change of 3,349 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 494,000 tons, with a change of - 1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou were 2,630 yuan/ton, 2,580 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,735 yuan/ton, 2,775 yuan/ton respectively. The Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,869 yuan/ton, closed at 2,780 yuan/ton, with a change of - 59 yuan/ton (- 2.08%) compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the position was 553,364 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Alloy Price, Inventory, Cost and Profit - **Price**: On January 13, 2026, the procurement prices of Baotai civil raw aluminium and mechanical raw aluminium were 18,000 yuan/ton and 18,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 64,500 tons [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of bond futures rose, and the bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders should continue to monitor the changes in the stock index. For trading - type investors, band operations are recommended [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.28%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, dipped in the morning and then rebounded, and fluctuated downward in the afternoon, closing down 1.18% from the previous trading day with a trading volume of 3.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 3.64 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open - market operations: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 342.4 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market rose. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.39%, up from 1.33% the previous day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.55%, up from 1.49% the previous day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year government bond fell 0.06 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year rose 0.01 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year fell 0.66 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 0.06 BP to 2.29% [1] - US data: The US consumer price index in December increased 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The core consumer price index increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; and increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1] Market Logic - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%. The service business activity index was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, indicating that China's overall inflation level remained moderate. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are recommended to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters and potential false statements made to Congress about the project's scale [2] - Powell stated that the investigation undermines the Fed's independence in setting interest rates, raising concerns about whether monetary policy will be influenced by political pressure [2][3] - Economists believe that this investigation could have significant implications for consumers' finances, as it may affect inflation and interest rates [3][4] Group 2 - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi highlighted that rising inflation poses a "fatal weakness" for existing bond investors, as it diminishes the real value of bond income streams [3] - Analysts express concerns that the investigation could lead to rising interest rates, which may counteract efforts to lower mortgage rates and negatively impact the economy [3][4] - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Fed can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency, which resulted in high inflation and stagnation in the 1970s [6][7]

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On January 13, 2026, the A-share market experienced a collective correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending its 17-day winning streak. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a record high of 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and international policies. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96% to 3321.89 points. The trading volume of the three markets reached 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on January 13, closing at 4761.03, a decrease of 28.88 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated weakly, closing at 1746.7, a decrease of 18.8 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 1193.9 yuan, a decrease of 30.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the supply side shows continuous recovery in coke - making enterprise operations, and the total coke inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The demand side shows an increase in blast furnace operations and daily hot metal production. Some coke - making enterprises in Inner Mongolia proposed a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. For coking coal, mine production capacity is recovering, Mongolian coal imports are relatively sufficient, and clean coal inventory is accumulating. However, coke - making enterprise profits are in greater deficit [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on January 13. As of January 12, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 21.18% compared to the same period last year. The Thai Sugar Board expects the country's sugar production to reach 10.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season and may reduce to 10 million tons in the next year. The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 4.7 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to improved weather in Southeast Asian producing areas, increased raw material supply, and reduced spot quotes, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on January 13. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail sales in 2025 were 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on January 13, CBOT soybeans were weak. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report confirmed the loose supply - demand pattern of the US soybean market, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 million tons. In the domestic market, on January 13, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The current soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level, and the resumption of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further enriches the domestic soybean supply [6]. Live Hogs - On January 13, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%. The supply of medium - and large - sized hogs has slightly decreased in the first half of this month, but there is still a possibility of early slaughter by pig enterprises before the Spring Festival. The seasonal consumption such as pickled pork and sausage is ongoing, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited [6]. Palm Oil - On January 13, the palm oil market continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed at 8778, an increase of 0.62% from the previous day. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects the 2026 palm oil inventory to be 2 million tons (compared to 3.05 million tons in 2025), the price to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton, and the production to be between 19.5 - 19.8 million tons (compared to 20.28 million tons in 2025) [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened at 104500 yuan/ton, reached a high of 104990 yuan/ton, a low of 101970 yuan/ton, and closed at 102480 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the off - season of domestic demand, the reduction of refined copper production, and the weak terminal consumption [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of January 13, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14745 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 642 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. Iron Ore - On January 13, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 819.5 yuan. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On January 13, the main asphalt 2603 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.66% and a closing price of 3140 yuan. The supply is at a low level, the inventory is accumulating, the demand has decreased significantly, and the short - term price is in a volatile state under the support of crude oil costs [7]. Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772, reached a low of 772, a high of 775.5, and closed at 774.5 on January 13, with a reduction of 254 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [7][8]. Steel - On January 13, rb2605 closed at 3158 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rising cost of coking coal supports steel prices, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and the short - term steel price increase may slow down and enter a volatile state [8]. Alumina - On January 13, ao2605 closed at 2780 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remains high, the supply is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The consumption side shows weak ore transactions and a general trading atmosphere [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 13, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is relatively positive for the non - ferrous market. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products may stimulate short - term demand. The supply is normal, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is shrinking [8][9].

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The U.S. is expected to grow by 2.2%, while the Eurozone and Japan are projected to slow to 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively [1][8] U.S. Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as the economy improves, denying any plans for another government shutdown and indicating upcoming policies aimed at reducing the cost of living [7][8] - Trump has accused Fed Chair Powell of overspending by billions, labeling him as "incompetent or corrupt," and has indicated plans to nominate a new Fed chair soon. This has drawn support for Powell from former Treasury Secretaries and central bank leaders, who criticized political interference in central bank independence [8] U.S. Fiscal Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported a record budget deficit of $145 billion for December 2025, the highest for that month historically. The deficit for the fiscal year 2026 so far stands at $602 billion, down from $711 billion in the same period last year [8] Labor Market and Inflation - The New York Fed President Williams stated that the current U.S. economic conditions are "quite favorable," with no signs of rapid deterioration in the labor market, and expects stabilization and gradual improvement this year. He noted that monetary policy is close to neutral, with no strong pressure for rate cuts or hikes in the short term [2][8] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, both unchanged from previous values. Due to prior government shutdowns, the data's reference value is limited, and the market anticipates a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January [8] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8% to 49,191.99 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.19% to 6,963.74 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1% to 23,709.87 points [3][9] - COMEX gold futures declined by 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [4][10] - U.S. oil futures increased by 2.69% to $61.1 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 2.43% to $65.42 per barrel [5][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil is expected to trade sideways, palm oil is expected to trade sideways with an upward bias, and rapeseed oil is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Soybean meal is expected to trade sideways, and rapeseed meal is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias [13]. - **Hogs**: Expected to trade sideways [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias; 20 - rubber is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the medium - term [20]. - **Cotton**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the long - term [21]. - **Sugar**: Expected to trade sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [21]. - **Pulp**: Expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the month, with attention to correction risks [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to trade within a range [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, considering factors such as policy, supply and demand, weather, and macro - economic conditions. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting the complexity of the agricultural market and the need for investors to consider multiple factors when making investment decisions [5][8][13]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: USDA report is relatively bearish, and the market should pay attention to macro factors. - **Logic**: The USDA report increased US soybean harvest area and production, decreased exports, and raised ending stocks, contrary to market expectations. Palm oil exports are strong, and domestic soybean auctions and压榨开机 rates are factors to watch. The macro - economic environment, including China's monetary policy and global oil prices, also affects the market [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil to trade sideways, palm oil to trade sideways with an upward bias, and rapeseed oil to trade sideways with a downward bias [5]. Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Multiple factors coexist, and the market is trading sideways. - **Logic**: The January supply - demand report is bearish for US soybeans, while South American soybeans have a high probability of a bumper harvest. In China, soybean auctions are active, and there are mixed signals in the domestic market, such as inventory and demand [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal to trade sideways, and rapeseed meal to trade sideways with a downward bias [9]. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market is trading at a high level sideways. - **Logic**: Policy grain releases, weather conditions, and supply - demand fundamentals, including farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, drive the market [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias [13]. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are trading sideways. - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is not significant, but there may be early sales before the Spring Festival. Medium - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. Demand is affected by the festival season, and inventory levels are a factor [15]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways, with short - term weakness and long - term potential for price increases [15]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Follows the macro - trading logic. - **Logic**: Rubber prices are driven by macro factors and fund rotation. The fundamental supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is weak after the price increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the short - term, with attention to potential corrections [18]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Trading at a high level sideways. - **Logic**: The medium - term upward logic is based on the expected improvement in butadiene fundamentals. Short - term price increases may be affected by market adjustments [20]. - **Outlook**: Medium - term expected to trade sideways with an upward bias, with short - term pressure [20]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The downward trend has paused, and prices rebounded. - **Logic**: Long - term price increase is expected, with short - term adjustments due to profit - taking. The long - term drivers are the expected "tight balance" in 2025/26 and the expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the long - term, with a strategy of buying on dips [21]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Supply is increasing marginally, and prices are under pressure. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new season, especially in major producing countries. Prices are under downward pressure during the northern hemisphere's harvest season [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term, with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [21]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is trading sideways, with attention to increasing bearish factors. - **Logic**: Fundamental factors include both bullish and bearish elements. Bullish factors are rising import costs and high demand, while bearish factors are cost - transfer difficulties and seasonal demand decline. The market is also affected by capital flows [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways, with attention to negative demand feedback in the long - term [22]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakening due to commodity corrections. - **Logic**: The market is affected by supply - demand imbalances, with high industry capacity and weak downstream demand. Publishers'提货 is ending, and social demand is light [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the month, with attention to correction risks [24]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market is trading sideways with reduced positions by the main players. - **Logic**: The market is driven by its own fundamentals, with limited macro - economic impact. Supply pressure is expected to ease in January - February, and the market is expected to trade within a range [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade within a range [25].

智通财经APP获悉，美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长穆萨勒姆周二表示，他认为当前几乎没有理由在短 期内进一步放松货币政策，因为美联储的政策利率已处在"接近中性"的水平，既不会刺激经济，也不会 对经济形成明显抑制。 穆萨勒姆指出，目前的货币政策处于"良好位置"，具备向任何方向调整的灵活性。他估计，在剔除通胀 因素后，当前的实际政策利率大约在1%左右。在此背景下，他认为此时将货币政策转向明显的宽松立 场并不明智。 谈及经济前景，穆萨勒姆表示，就风险而言，劳动力市场存在一定下行风险，而通胀则面临上行风险。 不过，他预计美国劳动力市场将大致稳定在当前水平，通胀也有望继续向美联储设定的2%目标迈进。 今年美国经济增速预计将达到或略高于潜在增速。 在利率政策方面，他支持美联储去年12月的降息决定。他援引圣路易斯联储银行的相关研究称，今年计 划招聘员工的企业比例有所下降，而打算缩减员工规模的企业比例则有所上升。 他同时指出，如果未来劳动力市场的疲软程度超出当前预期，且通胀水平跌破2%，那么下调政策利率 将具备合理性。在这种情况下，政策仍可适度宽松，而不至于进入明显的刺激性区间。 对于生产率前景，穆萨勒姆表示，他对美国可能正进入 ...

通胀警报仍未解除 12月CPI报告是近几个月来首次对通胀趋势进行完整盘点。由于去年秋季美国政府关门，美国劳工部未 能收集价格数据，在上一次通胀报告中不得不使用技术手段处理缺失数据。 随着美国12月核心消费者价格涨幅低于预期，美联储今年预期降息时点有所提前。 据央视报道，当地时间13日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，去年12月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 数据公布后，美国短期利率期货大幅上涨，交易员们进一步增加了对美联储降息的押注。尽管交易员们 仍认为，6月降息是最可能的结果，但4月降息的概率升至42%，高于数据发布前的38%。 尽管目前通胀率相比几年前有所放缓，但食品、保险等必需品价格仍远高于以往。美国12月份食品杂货 价格上涨0.7%，为2022年10月以来最大单月涨幅。与2024年同期相比，价格上涨了2.4%。 货币政策仍需谨慎 尽管美国就业市场眼下招聘乏力，但挥之不去的通胀隐忧或迫使美联储在决定2026年是否继续放宽货币 政策时保持谨慎。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，2026年美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trend of issuing short-term bonds may pressure politicians to advocate for lower interest rates, potentially threatening the independence of central banks in Europe in the coming years [1] - The article highlights that U.S. monetary policy has been under pressure due to repeated calls for interest rate cuts from the Trump administration [1] - It also mentions that the U.S. Department of Justice has recently threatened to bring criminal charges against the Federal Reserve [1]

在数月来试图避免与美国总统特朗普发生对抗之后，美联储主席鲍威尔终于发起了反击。 这也很难怪他。司法部已经对这位美联储主席启动了刑事调查，调查他是否对国会撒谎，这实际上是动 用了联邦政府的力量来对付一位特朗普试图罢免的公职人员。 在过去很多个月和多次美联储会议期间，记者们都曾要求鲍威尔回应政府的威胁以及试图影响货币政策 的强制性企图。 在每一种情况下，鲍威尔都拒绝置评或回避，选择置身于政治纷争之外，坚守其保持物价稳定和低失业 率的无党派使命。如今，随着司法部的刀已经架在了脖子上，鲍威尔已经没有这种回旋的余地了。 突然改变的不仅仅是他的沟通风格。鲍威尔此前可能曾考虑在5月主席任期结束后离开美联储，尽管他 的理事任期要到2028年才届满。 这种史无前例的法律攻击可能会激励他留任至任期完全结束，从而让特朗普没机会提名另一位官员，并 让他自己有时间看到调查结束。他在声明中提到的公共服务精神，引发了这个问题。 鲍威尔在上周日晚间发布的一段非同寻常的视频中，试图向公众阐明其中的利害关系。 这种升级对鲍威尔还是特朗普来说变化更大？ 特朗普政府的策略显然变了。以前他们只是批评鲍威尔，并利用特朗普的舆论影响力"一厢情愿"地希望 ...