本文来源：时代财经 作者：何秀兰 港股走强的背后，是资金、政策与制度的三重红利共振。南向资金作为 "压舱石"，年内净流入超 1.3 万亿元；制度层面，港交所于5月推出 "科企专线"，允许硬科技与生物科技企业保密递表，叠加18C章上市通道高效落地，制度红利推动港股IPO市场强势回暖。截至12月29日，港 交所年内IPO合计募资近2800亿港元，同比增长224.38%，助推港交所重回全球交易所募资榜首。 盘古智库高级研究员余丰慧向时代财经表示，2025年港股估值修复的核心驱动力主要来源于资金宽松、国内经济复苏预期增强以及政策支持。 特别是南向资金的持续流入，加上人民币汇率稳定，增强了市场信心。此外，新能源汽车、人工智能等产业的发展也促进了相关板块的业绩和 估值扩张。 图源：图虫创意 核心指数领涨全球，资金面共振推动港股复苏 2025年，港股核心指数集体爆发，全年表现领跑全球主要资本市场。 从具体表现来看，截至12月29日收盘，恒生指数从年初约19600点攀升至25635点，全年涨幅近28%；恒生科技指数同步走高，涨幅近23%；恒 生国企指数全年涨幅近22%，反映出央企国企板块的估值重塑成效。这一表现不仅创下港股五 ...

1.监管与交易层面：政策降温 + 资金踩踏 交易所风险管控：广期所 12 月 23 日上调铂钯涨跌停板与保证金，CME 于 12 月 29 日跟进上调金属期 货保证金，直接压缩杠杆资金规模，引发多头主动减仓。 3.资金行为：获利了结主导短期走势 ETF 与期货多头抛售：铂金价格年内涨幅一度超 50%，机构与 ETF 投资人在高位集中获利了结，进一 步加剧下跌动量。 投机资金退潮：前期资金炒作 "估值修复"，推动价格脱离基本面，一旦预期逆转，投机盘快速出逃引 发连锁反应。。 期货公司观点 内外盘时间错位与价差收敛：圣诞假期导致外盘休市、内盘独自波动，内外价差一度接近 20%，套利 资金入场卖空内盘、买入外盘，加速内盘价格回调。 多头集中止损：前期价格暴涨吸引大量投机资金，关键支撑位破位后触发程序化交易与 "踩踏式抛 售"，放大跌幅。 2.基本面：需求疲软 + 供需预期反转 工业需求走弱：汽车催化器是铂金最大需求端(占比 40%+)，2025 年三季度全球燃油车销量同比下滑 5%，新能源汽车替代加速，单台催化器用铂量因技术升级持续下降，需求增量不及预期。 远期供需再平衡：WPIC 预测 2026 年铂金市场或出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities reports that Luk Fook Holdings (00590) shows strong resilience in consumer demand with double-digit growth expected in the near term, driven by a new gold value-added tax policy and long-term benefits from market share enhancement for leading companies. The valuation is expected to recover due to overseas expansion and product premiumization, with projected net profits for the next three years being 1.56 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.01 billion HKD, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.3, 7.2, and 6.4 respectively. The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1 (ending September 30, 2025), Luk Fook Holdings exceeded expectations with revenue of 6.84 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of 620 million HKD, up 42.5%. The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to a historical high of 34.7%. Quarterly performance shows strong recovery momentum, with retail value growth of 13% in FY26Q1 and 18% in FY26Q2, alongside same-store sales growth of 5% and 10% respectively [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - The company continues to increase the proportion of high-margin products, with significant performance in pricing products, which have become a key driver for structural optimization. In FY26H1, revenue from gold and platinum reached 4.096 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, accounting for 64.3% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 2.8% to 30.3%. Revenue from pricing jewelry was 2.276 billion HKD, up 67.9%, making up 35.7% of total revenue. Quarterly data shows strong same-store sales growth for self-operated pricing gold and jewelry in both mainland and Hong Kong/Macau [3]. Group 3: Channel Performance - The company is actively optimizing its store network and rebalancing channels. In FY26H1, revenue from retail, wholesale, and brand businesses accounted for 76.8%, 16.3%, and 6.9% respectively, with wholesale revenue increasing significantly by 190.6% and turning profitable with a segment profit margin of 9.7%. As of the end of H1, the total number of global stores was 3,113, a net decrease of 174 stores, with self-operated stores increasing by 23 and brand stores decreasing by 198. Same-store sales growth for the first half was 7.7%, with mainland same-store growth at 10.9% [4].

方正中期期货有色与贵金属研究员梁海宽：短期来看，全球白银库存紧张的矛盾无法从根本上缓解，而 且市场对这一矛盾的共识正在不断被强化。全球白银市场已连续5年供不应求，铂金、钯金近期的上涨 主要是由于自身估值修复的驱动，由于自身体量较小，同时叠加自身供给端偏紧，铂金、钯金短期价格 弹性更大。 本周贵金属价格频频创出新高，引领了年末行情。当地时间26日，是美国传统节假日后的首个交易日， 贵金属黄金、白银、铂金再度迎来全线大涨，再次刷新历史纪录。在美元持续走软的背景下，黄金市场 本周受到地缘政治风险升温的支撑，持续保持强劲走势。近期，美国针对委内瑞拉的石油制裁和对该国 石油贸易封锁升级等诸多不确定性因素，显著提升黄金的避险吸引力。 来源：央视财经 0:00 黄金流动性外溢效应、美元走软以及供应紧张等因素还带动铂金、钯金等贵金属价格飙升。铂金期货价 格本周飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2400美元大关，全周涨幅超22%，钯金期价上涨约13%，达到 2023.3美元/盎司，创三年多来的最高水平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

Market Overview - The current market is undergoing a valuation repair and asset rotation driven trend [1][8] - A-shares are expected to experience a "spring rally" if three conditions are met: reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite [8] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation is set to release the "Food Commissioned Production Supervision Management Measures" to address issues related to commissioned production practices, ensuring food safety responsibilities are clearly defined [3] - A new industry standard for e-commerce platforms regarding mandatory product certification verification has been implemented, aimed at enhancing consumer rights and promoting high-quality platform economy development [3] Industry Specific Updates - Four leading silicon wafer companies have significantly raised their prices, with an average increase of 12%, attributed to substantial rises in upstream silicon material costs [4] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is seeking opinions on a draft notice to strengthen electronic cigarette production capacity regulation, emphasizing a market demand-oriented approach [5] Company Announcements - Dongguan Securities has indicated that the market is currently in a phase of valuation repair and asset rotation [8] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued a letter of concern to Sunflower regarding its acquisition plans, requesting clarification on potential impacts on competition and independence due to legal issues faced by the target company [6]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto has completed the privatization and merger of Zeekr, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, which is expected to enhance profits and achieve cost reduction through strategic integration [1] Group 1: Privatization and Financial Impact - The privatization of Zeekr is anticipated to increase Geely's net profit by 2-3 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - Following the privatization, Geely's ownership of Zeekr and Lynk & Co has increased to 100%, facilitating better integration of its four brands: Geely, Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr [1] Group 2: New Product Launches and Sales Growth - Geely has entered a strong new product cycle, launching competitive models such as Galaxy A7, Galaxy Star 8, Galaxy Star 6, Galaxy M9, Lynk & Co 10, Lynk & Co 900, and Zeekr 9X [1] - The sales of new models have been robust, with Galaxy A7 and Galaxy Star 8 achieving monthly sales of over 15,000 and 10,000 units respectively [1] - The company expects to introduce 1-2 new models each quarter, maintaining a strong product pipeline [1] Group 3: Sales and Profitability Forecast - In November, Geely achieved sales of 310,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - Projected sales for 2025-2027 are 3.06 million, 3.70 million, and 3.99 million vehicles, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 21%, and 8% respectively [1] - The introduction of mid-to-high-end models is expected to significantly enhance the company's product structure, leading to higher average selling prices (ASP) and gross margins [1] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Recommendation - Geely is considered one of the top picks for the upcoming recovery in the automotive sector due to its low valuation and strong growth potential [2] - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 18.6 billion, 26.3 billion, and 31.6 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.8, 6.3, and 5.2 [2] - A target price of 27.01 HKD is set for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 60%, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Different consumer sectors exhibit both differences and commonalities in recovery rhythms, with ROA being a leading indicator for operational recovery in consumer enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Recovery Rhythm Analysis - The recovery rhythm of various consumer sectors is influenced by industry supply and demand, as well as supply chain structures, with a focus on stock market competition as a mainstream phenomenon [2] - The stages of enterprise and channel adjustments are outlined, starting from oversupply to a new balance in supply and demand, with ROA serving as a key indicator throughout these stages [2] - Current recovery sequences indicate that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by food supply chains, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors where ROA stabilizes, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, with a preference for sectors that still show price or volume growth [3] - Price logic suggests that rising CPI may drive valuation recovery in traditional industries with high penetration rates, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, which are likely to attract incremental capital [3][4] - Recommended companies in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while in dairy, focus on Yili and Mengniu [3] Group 3: Volume Logic - In the context of cost-effective consumption, companies with high supply chain efficiency are expected to gain volume, with specific recommendations for companies in the food supply chain and soft drinks [4] - Industries with low penetration rates may withstand economic cycles, with recommendations for low-alcohol beverages and functional foods that can enhance brand premium through specialization [4] - Companies benefiting from overseas market expansion include Angel Yeast and Bailong Chuangyuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on individual stocks rather than the overall industry, indicating potential for high individual stock appreciation despite overall industry pressure [2][3]. Core Insights - Consumer confidence is gradually recovering, with strong growth in consumer-close channels such as convenience stores and membership stores, which saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1][9]. - The food and beverage sector is currently undervalued, with cost stability expected to support corporate profitability as raw material costs are anticipated to remain flat or decrease next year [1][2]. - The alcoholic beverage segment is under pressure, particularly the baijiu industry, which is facing clearing and restrictions, while beer remains stable and the competition in yellow wine is changing significantly [1][6]. Summary by Sections B2B and B2C Business - B2B business in new retail channels and restaurant recovery is relatively weak, but significant changes are observed in C-end offline channels [4]. - C-end consumer confidence is gradually recovering, with stronger growth dynamics in consumer-close channels [4]. Industry Performance - The demand for alcoholic beverages is under pressure, with baijiu production declining and prices in a downward trend, although recent company price control has led to a rebound [5][6]. - The snack sector is experiencing rapid growth, while baking and cooked food operations are under pressure. Brands like Wancheng and Weilong are responsive to channel changes, leading to sustained growth [5][6]. Consumer Confidence and Economic Impact - The consumer confidence index has steadily improved, rising from 87.5 to 89.4 from January to October 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [12]. - Despite overall industry pressures, there are many growth opportunities in specific segments such as pre-processed foods and snacks, with products like electrolyte water and sugar-free tea continuing to grow rapidly [13]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The valuation of food and beverage companies is currently at historical lows, with many companies offering attractive dividend yields, such as Chongqing Beer exceeding 3% [15][16]. - The report recommends focusing on leading brands in specific segments, including top brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, as well as snack brands like Wancheng Group and Yanjinpuzi, and pre-processed food companies like Sanquan Foods and Anjui Foods [16].