Group 1: Brokerage Sector Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see a valuation recovery throughout the year, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for listed brokerages, up 25% and 83% year-on-year respectively in Q1 2025 [1] - Key drivers of growth include brokerage, margin financing, and proprietary trading, with notable year-on-year increases of 49%, 51%, and 27% in brokerage, proprietary trading, and net interest income respectively [1] - The resilience of investment banking and asset management businesses is better than expected, indicating a positive growth outlook for brokerage and margin financing businesses [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Fund Reform - The recent implementation of public fund reforms is anticipated to drive valuation in the banking sector, with a focus on aligning fund allocations with performance benchmarks [2] - The banking sector is currently under-allocated in active equity, with a deviation of nearly 10 percentage points from the CSI 300 index, suggesting significant potential for increased allocation [2] - Recent policy measures aimed at economic recovery, along with the expansion of passive funds and accelerated entry of insurance capital, are expected to support the banking sector's market performance [2] Group 3: Metal Industry Investment Opportunities - The metal industry is projected to experience steady profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with gold, nickel, cobalt, tin, rare earths, and copper leading the sector [3] - Current valuations in the metal industry remain relatively low, particularly for aluminum, copper, and nickel, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - The industry is also seeing an increase in dividend returns, with some stocks offering dividend yields exceeding 5%, enhancing shareholder return capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The metal industry is expected to see steady profit growth in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with gold, nickel, cobalt, tin, antimony, rare earth magnetic materials, and copper leading the sector [1] Industry Summary - The current valuation of the metal industry remains relatively low, with aluminum, copper, nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony at comparatively low levels, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1] - The trend of increasing dividend returns in the industry continues, with some individual stocks offering dividend yields exceeding 5%, reflecting an ongoing enhancement in shareholder return capabilities [1] - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the industry should focus on investment opportunities in gold, rare earths, copper, aluminum, tin, and tungsten, particularly in the context of trade disputes and the gradual implementation of liquidity and fiscal policies [1]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai has been in the spotlight recently due to various developments, including the appointment of Zhang Yixing as its cultural tourism ambassador and adjustments to its shareholder meeting venue due to high attendance [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 1741.44 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and a net profit of 862.28 billion yuan, with a growth of 15.38% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 506.01 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, increasing by 11.56% [4] - The company has set a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, estimating an incremental revenue of about 156.7 billion yuan based on 2024 figures [4] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Zhang Yixing as the brand ambassador, Guizhou Moutai's stock price saw a slight increase, closing at 1555 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization reaching 1.95 trillion yuan [3] - Despite a minor decline in stock price to 1632.01 yuan per share, the company's market capitalization has surpassed 2 trillion yuan again, reaching 2.05 trillion yuan [4][5] Industry Context - The white liquor sector is experiencing a recovery, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price increases [6] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase for the industry has passed, and companies are expected to maintain rational growth targets moving forward [6]

回顾本周，金融板块的市场表现颇为亮眼。Wind资讯数据显示，截至5月15日收盘，本周以来，A股Wind非银金融板块涨 幅接近4%；Wind银行板块涨幅为2.1%。 其中，5月14日，金融板块更是集体冲高，带动上证指数一举站上3400点。个股方面，中国人保、红塔证券等多只金融股 涨停；农业银行、浦发银行、上海银行、江苏银行等多只银行股股价创出历史新高。 本报记者 方凌晨 熊悦 近段时间，金融板块整体表现亮眼，成为市场关注的焦点。 Wind资讯数据显示，截至5月15日收盘，Wind银行行业指数报7072.61点，创历史新高。而前一日，银行、保险、券商等板 块齐发力，带动上证指数站上3400点，提振了市场情绪。在此背景下，金融板块后续配置价值如何，成为投资者的关注点。 在业内人士看来，中国人民银行降准降息、公募基金改革方案发布、险资权益投资力度持续加大等积极因素叠加，有望为 包括银行板块在内的金融板块带来增配机遇，推动更多资金流入。 金融板块表现亮眼 展望后市，多家机构分析称，公募基金低配的银行、非银金融板块有望迎来增配，高股息、经营稳健的银行股也有望获得 险资继续配置，多重因素支撑银行股估值修复。 晨星（中国）基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in Apple's supply chain stocks is driven by a combination of easing US-China tariff policies and Apple's aggressive pricing strategies, alongside mixed market sentiment regarding future performance [1][3][9]. Market Performance - On May 12, the Apple concept index (BK0666) closed at 2985.77 points, with a single-day increase of 2.91%. Notable stocks like LeChuang Technology surged by 22%, while several others exceeded 10% gains [2]. - However, by May 15, the index fell to 2911 points, indicating a decline from the previous highs, with many stocks in the Hong Kong market also experiencing significant drops [2]. Factors Influencing Volatility - The fluctuations in stock prices are attributed to two main factors: the recent US-China tariff adjustments and Apple's price reductions on its products. The US has announced a temporary suspension of certain tariffs, which is seen as a positive development for the supply chain [3][4]. - Apple's recent price cuts, particularly on the iPhone 16 Pro series, have seen reductions of up to 2500 yuan, with discounts exceeding 30% in some cases [4]. Financial Performance of Key Suppliers - Apple's financial results for Q2 of the 2024-2025 fiscal year showed revenues of $95.4 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $24.78 billion, up 4.84% [6]. - Key suppliers such as GoerTek, Lens Technology, and Luxshare Precision reported mixed results for Q1 2025, with revenues of 16.30 billion yuan, 17.06 billion yuan, and 61.79 billion yuan respectively, showing year-over-year growth rates of -15.57%, 10.10%, and 17.90% [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Apple supply chain may have room for recovery, driven by easing tariffs and low valuations, alongside anticipated product innovations from Apple in the coming years [9]. - Expectations are set for a new wave of product launches, including foldable screens and AI glasses, which could invigorate the supply chain and lead to an upward trend in related companies [9].

截至2025年5月15日 10:15，恒生医疗保健指数(HSHCI)上涨0.11%，成分股远大医药(00512)上涨6.15%，诺诚健华(09969)上涨4.36%，巨子生物(02367)上涨 3.75%，药师帮(09885)上涨2.38%，健康之路(02587)上涨1.83%。恒生医疗ETF(513060)上涨0.21%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报0.48元。流动性方面，恒生医疗 ETF盘中换手2.77%，成交2.74亿元。拉长时间看，截至5月14日，恒生医疗ETF近1月日均成交12.54亿元，排名可比基金第一。 2025年5月12日，商务部公布了中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。声明指出：中美双方近期会将4月2日相关的34%关税分为24%（暂缓90天）和10%，中国还将 暂停或取消自2025年4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施。中美双方未来还会建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 湘财证券指出，中美关税的缓和有利于国内医疗器械降低生产成本，扩大海外市场份额。而对于CXO，政策边际缓和有望迎来估值修复。我们看好医疗服 务行业，建议关注出口产业链。 恒生医疗ETF紧密跟踪恒生医疗保健指数，恒生医疗保健指数提供一项市场参考 ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 新能源：关税下调超预期，看好储能 等子板块盈利弹性及估值修复 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 新能源：关税下调超预期，看好储能等子板块盈利弹性及估值修复 5 月 12 日，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国宣布修改此前 4 月 2 日对中国加征的 34%"对等关税"行政令，其中 24%的关税在初始的 90 天 内暂停实施，剩余 10%的关税仍保留，并取消 4 月 8 日与 4 月 9 日对中国 加征的关税（50%、41%），此次会谈结果将美国对华关税大幅降低，远超 市场预期。我们认为关税下调后，储能、光伏、AIDC 等板块有望迎来盈利 与估值的修复，推荐宁德时代、阳光电源、阿特斯、麦格米特、禾望电气。 "对等关税"大幅下调，超出市场预期 此次谈判未涉及 20%的芬太尼关税及 25%的 232 关税，"对等关税"下调幅 度超出预期。我们测算关税下调后国内出口各环节税率为：1）动力电池： 基础关税 3.4%+此前的附加关税 45%+232 关税 25%，合计 73.4%（动力电 池属于 232 条例商品，不受"对等关税"影响）；2）储能电池/系统：4 ...

铁合金日报|2025-05-15 【宏观情绪好转，商品系统性反弹，估值修复中】 硅铁 【基本面分析】 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 610-670 元/吨，河 北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 730-770 元/吨，4 月产区主流结算电价 0.4-0.45 元/千瓦时。 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁自然块报 5350-5500 元/吨现金含税出厂，75 硅铁 5850-6000 元/ 吨现金含税出厂。河钢 5 月 75B 硅铁采购量 2135 吨，较 4 月增加 435 吨，首轮询盘 5700 元 /吨承兑含税到厂。南京钢铁采购 1000 吨定价 5800 元/吨承兑含税到厂，金盛兰集团新一轮 硅铁采购价微涨 30-50 元/吨。 3、仓单变化：硅铁仓单 19048 张环比上个交易日持平，预报 201 张环比持平，仓单和 预报合计 96248 吨环比持平。 【技术分析】 文华商品指数收在 161.76 涨 1.41%，资金净流入 40.12 亿。黑色系不同程度反弹，硅铁 2507 收在 5678 涨 1.07%，资金净流入 2576 万，日增仓 2997 手，结算价 5668。 ...

在近期的资本市场中，大金融板块的表现格外引人注目，成为市场焦点。 5月14日，上证指数站上3400点，其中银行、保险、券商等金融板块功不可没，中国人保、红塔证券涨停，多 只银行股盘中创历史新高。多家机构认为，近期，降准降息、实施公募基金新规、鼓励保险加大权益投资力度 等政策释放了较强的信号，不仅有助于提振市场信心，而且将为高股息、低估值且仍处于机构低配的金融板块 带来增配机遇。 大金融板块集体爆发 5月14日，市场在以银行、保险、券商为代表的权重板块带动下震荡走高，沪指重回3400点上方，大金融板块 集体爆发，万得保险指数大涨5.15%，万得证券精选指数、万得银行指数分别上涨3.29%、0.80%。 2025年5月7日，中国证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，其中提出要强化业绩比较基准对公募 基金的约束作用，推广基于业绩比较基准的浮动管理费基金，并制定业绩比较基准监管指引，修正基金产品风 格漂移的问题。这意味着业绩比较基准的重要性大幅提高，且将成为衡量基金业绩的重要参考指标。 东方证券研报数据显示，在全市场主动偏股型公募基金中，46%产品的第一大业绩基准为沪深300指数，而银 行和非银分别是沪深30 ...

高景气度下券商板块盈利能力与估值存在预期差 20240514 摘要 • 券商板块 EQ25 业绩虽受费用率影响，仍保持 55%正增长，主要驱动力来 自手续费收入，占比达 29%，受益于市场回暖及经纪业务高增长，自营业 务贡献显著提升至 43%，成为业绩增长关键。 • 公募基金高质量发展行动方案强化业绩基准约束，促使基金补配沪深 300 欠配行业，其中证券板块欠配 6.3%，东财和中信证券欠配程度最高，推 动非金融板块近期上涨。 • 广发证券被推荐基于其估值低估、基本面拐点，投行业务监管恢复有望兑 现业绩；资管特色明显，参控股易方达 ETF 排名行业第二，业绩贡献显著； 财富管理先发优势，与易方达、广发基金成立线下投顾学院。 • 券商未来发展关注业绩弹性与并购重组两条主线，同时国际业务对头部券 商业绩贡献日益显著，尤其关注港股 IPO 反弹带来的机遇，以及在国际业 务方面已具品牌优势的大型券商。 • 2025 年第二季度券商板块各项指标亮眼，同比增长 83%，环比增长 19%，自 2024 年第一季度起逐季改善，自营和经纪业务是推动业绩高增 的主要因素。 Q&A 今年券商板块的业绩增速情况如何？ 今年券商板块的 ...