Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On June 11, the main coke contract closed at 1356 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.31%. The spot market price at Rizhao Port decreased week-on-week. The coke market has a weak fundamental situation, with a supply - demand double - decline since May. However, factors such as coking coal supply disruptions and the easing of Sino - US relations have led to a slight price rebound, and the main contract is in low - level volatile operation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 11, the main coking coal contract closed at 783.5 points, with an intraday increase of 1.10%. Since late May, the output of some coal mines has declined, and in June, domestic coking coal production is uncertain due to safety and environmental inspections. The political turmoil in Mongolia has also worried the market. The coking coal contract has rebounded at a low level, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern has not reversed [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, China's automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 45.2% and 44%, accounting for 44% of total vehicle sales [8]. - On June 11, the auction price of coking coal in Linfen Puxian market decreased. The starting price of low - sulfur fat coal was 1100 yuan/ton, and 10,000 tons were sold at the base price, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with May 28 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1270 yuan/ton | - 5.22% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% [10] | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1180 yuan/ton | - 0.84% | - 3.28% | - 27.16% | - 38.86% [10] | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 900 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.17% | - 23.73% | - 44.44% [10] | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 4.76% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 44.44% [10] | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1250 yuan/ton | - 3.10% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% [10] | Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1356.0 yuan/ton | 1.31% | 1365.5 yuan/ton | 1339.0 yuan/ton | 25,401 | - 5,911 | 52,791 | - 1,227 [13] | | Coking Coal | | 783.5 points | 1.10% | 801.0 points | 778.5 points | 1,152,104 | - 265,124 | 557,029 | - 10,814 [13] | Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total coke inventory from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation charts [27][29][30]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamental situation is weak, but short - term factors have led to a price rebound. The main contract will continue low - level volatile operation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [6][33].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-11 成本端支撑增强，供需矛盾有限 市场分析 1、6月10日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3483元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌28元/吨，跌幅 0.8%；持仓215950手，环比上涨11329手，成交220645手，环比下降42903手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4086元/吨；山东，3500—3950元/吨；华南，3460—3500元/吨； 华东，3600—3670元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡偏强走势，沥青成本端支撑稳固，昨日山东以及华东地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，东北和华北 地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主，盘面则延续区间波动。就沥青自身基本面而言， 供需两弱格局延续，终端需求总体表现欠佳，进入6月份，北方地区气温适宜，部分基建项目进入施工期，但缺乏 超季节性的增长动力；而南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费。与此同 时，目前市场供应增量有限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，叠加成本端的支撑，市场压力有限，但需求端 改善乏力依然制约了市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand of rebar weakened, with production and demand both showing poor performance. Given the low inventory, the rebar price will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The supply of hot-rolled coil continued to rise, while demand was weak and stable. With the increase in inventory, the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure. Considering the easing of Sino-US trade risks, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.71%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. With the weakening of steel mill production in the off-season, the demand for iron ore was weak, while the supply was increasing. Given the deep discount of the futures price, the iron ore price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Some sectors showed positive price changes [8]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [9]. - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, and imported 48,100 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%. China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a month-on-month decrease of 4.9%, and imported 36.04 million tons of coal and lignite, a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products are presented in a table, including prices in different regions and price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - The futures prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are presented in a table, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [13]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as seasonal inventory changes [20][21][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of independent electric furnaces [29][30][31]. 5. Future Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of rebar weakened. Production continued to decline, and demand was also poor. With low inventory, the rebar price will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [38]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The supply of hot-rolled coil continued to rise, while demand was weak and stable. With the increase in inventory, the price will be under pressure. Considering the easing of Sino-US trade risks, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Demand was weakening, while supply pressure was increasing. Given the deep discount of the futures price, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]

南美新豆丰收上市，美农月报即将发布，市场预期供需格局如何变化？巴西大豆预售进度放缓，农民销 售意愿如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Pork Market - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 2.90% [2] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 34.51 yuan/kg, down 2.38% week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak due to sluggish post-holiday consumption demand and low demand for large pigs, leading to a continued strong supply and weak demand scenario [2] Group 2: Poultry Market - The price of white feather broilers is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices are at 2.84 yuan/bird, a decrease of 1.05% [3] - The increase in frozen chicken inventory has reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises, resulting in a weak price for broilers [3] - The decline in broiler prices, combined with high summer temperatures, has led to a slowdown in orders for chicks [3] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The average spot price of corn increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [4] - The supply of corn is tight in North China, but the new wheat harvest is putting pressure on the corn market [4] - The soybean meal supply is ample due to high production expectations from Argentina and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [4] Group 4: Natural Rubber Market - The domestic natural rubber futures price is 13695 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.05% [5] - Supply disruptions due to weather conditions are expected to recover, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to limited demand growth [5] - The production capacity utilization rate of tire companies is lower than the same period last year, indicating weak demand [5]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 缅甸地区供应持续缩减，供应收紧预期对锡价 或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比上涨，沪镍大幅去库 截止到 6 月 6 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15225 美元/ 吨，较 5 月 30 日上涨 0.5%，LME 镍总库存为 200106 吨，较 5 月 30 日增加 0.36%；沪镍报收 12.2 万元/吨，较 5 月 30 日上 涨 0.89%，沪镍库存为 25,616.00 吨，较 5 月 30 日减少 5.39%；截止到 5 月 30 日，硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨，较 5 月 30 日价格持平。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，国内方面的情 况是，虽然菲律宾镍矿的发运量持续增加，国内冶炼厂的原材 料库存也较为充足，但主产区苏里高以及巴拉望的中高品位镍 矿品位有所下滑，这可能导致国内冶炼厂的金属产量出现一定 程度的下降。印尼方面，尽管当前内贸火法镍矿的升水依然较 为坚挺，冶炼厂因此面临较高的成本压力，成品价格的疲软导 致冶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and API inventory decline drive up oil prices, while multiple PX device restarts increase supply, reducing PX de - stocking volume. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, short - term PX price and PXN bottom have support, and PX will continue to de - stock in the next few months [2] - PTA de - stocking slows, downstream resists high basis, and PTA spot basis weakens. In the short - term, PTA price follows the cost side. Polyester new capacity runs stably with high start - up, but polyester production cut is being executed, and PTA price will run in a range [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declines, market supply increases slightly, and foreign trade has more quotes and samples. PTA device maintenance is still high, and polyester starts production cut [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention. Bottle - chip start - up declines slightly, and downstream digests inventory [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 4, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.85/barrel (- 0.88%), Brent crude oil was $64.86/barrel (- 1.17%), naphtha in CFR Japan was $562.63/ton (+ 0.18%), and isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $699/ton (- 0.07%) [1] - **PX**: PX CFR China main port was $825/ton (+ 0.26%), CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,578 yuan/ton (+ 0.83%), and settlement price was 6,568 yuan/ton (- 1.02%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,670 yuan/ton (+ 0.91%), settlement price was 4,670 yuan/ton (- 0.81%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,863 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,926 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%), settlement price was 5,924 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,920 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%), and polyester chip was 5,890 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) [2] Spread Information - On June 4, 2025, PTA near - far month spread was 212 yuan/ton (increased by 32 yuan/ton), PTA basis was 200 yuan/ton (decreased by 77 yuan/ton), PX basis was 198 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), PR basis in East China was - 6 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), and in South China was 94 yuan/ton (decreased by 24 yuan/ton) [1] Production and Sales and Start - up Rate - **Start - up Rate**: On June 4, 2025, PX start - up rate was 81.45% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 80.84% (unchanged), polyester factory was 89.63% (- 0.08%), bottle - chip factory was 83.82% (unchanged), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were 69.80% (unchanged) [1] - **Production and Sales Rate**: On June 4, 2025, polyester filament production and sales rate was 36% (- 3%), polyester staple fiber was 60% (- 12%), and polyester chip was 49% (- 52%) [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Important News - On June 4, geopolitical risks drove up oil prices, and API inventory decline was favorable to oil prices. Multiple PX device restarts increased supply, and polyester production cut sentiment was strong [2] - PTA de - stocking slowed, downstream resisted high basis, and polyester new capacity ran stably with high start - up [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declined, foreign trade had more quotes and samples, and PTA device maintenance was still high [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market was weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention [2] Trading Strategy - PTA, PX, and PR contracts closed lower on June 4. Due to geopolitical and economic concerns, international oil prices fell. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]

Group 1 - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rebound in international crude oil prices [2] - The PTA market is expected to face considerable downward pressure due to weakening macroeconomic expectations and trade conflicts between the US and Europe [2][3] - Domestic crude oil prices have been operating at low levels since April, with a bearish trend in technical indicators [3] Group 2 - The import volume of PX in China decreased significantly in April, indicating weak terminal demand in the polyester industry [4] - The domestic PTA market is under dual pressure from increasing new capacity and slowing downstream demand growth [5] - The domestic PTA production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high [5][6] Group 3 - Downstream polyester demand has shown slight improvement, but overall growth remains limited due to weak terminal orders and inventory pressure [6] - The supply-demand structure for PTA remains weak, with increasing supply from new capacities and recovering existing facilities [7] - The geopolitical factors have raised crude oil price premiums, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest significant upward pressure on prices [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-30 库存压力仍较大，工业硅盘面弱势探底 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-29，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡探底，主力合约2507开于7320元/吨，最后收于7215元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-135）元/吨，变化（-1.84）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓224146手，2025-05-29仓单总数为63868手，较 前一日变化-418手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格弱稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8500（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9300 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7800-8000（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7800-8000（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天 津、新疆、上海、西北地区硅价也部分走低。四川地区今日硅价暂稳。 97硅今日价格同样走低。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11400-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，随着西北单体企业本周装置结束检 修恢复生产，行业单体企业开工率有所上升，但端午节后，开工预计将受部分单体企业检修周期到来继续下降。 SMM统计5月29日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58 ...