恒力期货研究院|进出口数据点评_聚酯链 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】338 号 作者：周云 F03089066 Z0016657 联系人：杨皓宇 F03139287|发布日期：2025/06/23 5 月聚酯链进出口数据表现有所分化。进口方面，PX 进口相对稳定，5 月进口同比环比均小 幅增长，乙二醇进口环比回落，未来两月进口存减量预期。出口方面，5 月 PTA 出口大幅下降， 出口至土耳其数量单月下降 12 万吨。聚酯出口延续高景气，瓶片、短纤出口表现依旧亮眼。终 端纺织、服装单月出口表现分化，服装出口回暖，在 5 月 12 日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 后，目前还存在一个多月的关税豁免期，需要持续关注关税谈判动态。 5 月 PTA 出口大幅下降，出口至土耳其数量单月下降 12 万吨。5 月 PTA 出口 26.5 万吨，同 比减少 39%，环比下降 32.3%，2025 年 1-5 月累计出口 160.2 万吨，同比减少 11.5%。从出口国 别看，1-5 月排在前五的分别是越南（27.6 万吨，17.3%）、阿曼（20.4 万吨，12.7%）、土耳其 （19.6 万吨，12.2%）、埃及（ ...

波动中布局成长确定性，出口链叙事逻辑渐明 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 | 轻工制造 | [Table_StockAndRank] | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 波动中布局成长确定性，出口链叙事逻辑渐 明 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 本期内容提要: [造纸：木片收购价上移，浆纸全线企稳；仙鹤发力竹浆，成长逻辑延续。 Table_Summary] 根据 Fastmarkets，南美漂阔浆评估价格依旧维持在 500-510 美元/吨，尽 管部分买家持续压价，但浆厂挺市态度强硬；部分浆纸企业阔叶木片收购 价自 6 月中下旬已涨 90 元/绝干吨，制浆成本持续提升。我们认为当前海 外浆价已逼近国内浆厂成本线，Q3 价格有望触底回暖。纸价方面，本周各 个纸种价格全线启稳，其中包装纸规模 ...

期货研究报告 | 化工组 化工半年报 中性，预计下半年尿素期货价格区间震荡。尿素市场供应相对充足，上游库存大幅累库，新增装置逐步投产，主要集中于四季度。尿素需 求总量有所增加，但是增速放缓，整体需求不及预期。下半年预计出口将有一定改善，但尿素企业需优先保证国内市场供应，需关注出口 政策对市场情绪的影响。 供需格局宽松，关注出口动态 化工板块研究 Chemical Research 本期分析研究员 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 吴硕琮 从业资格号： F03119179 华泰期货研究院化工板块研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 梁宗泰 期货研究报告 | 尿素半年报 2025-07-06 供需格局宽松 关注出口动态 研究院 化工组 杨露露 从业资格号： F03128371 刘启展 从业资格号： F03140168 研究员 梁宗泰 电话：020-83901031 邮箱： liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 电话： 020-83901135 ...

Group 1: Company Developments - Luckin Coffee has opened its first two stores in the United States, with drink prices ranging from $3.45 (approximately ¥24.71) to $7.95 (approximately ¥56.94) [3] - BYD has suspended its plan to build a large factory in Mexico due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties from U.S. trade policies, although it still aims to expand in the Americas [3] - Jin Jiang International Hotel has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to use the funds for capital expenditures to enhance its overseas hotel business [4] - TikTok has launched an in-app shopping feature in Japan, allowing users to buy products directly through shopping videos and live streams [4] - Genki Forest has entered the Indonesian market with its iced tea series, expanding its global footprint [7] Group 2: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Commerce of China will strengthen guidance on the export of used cars to promote healthy and orderly development in this sector [8] - Former U.S. President Trump announced that new tariffs will begin on August 1, with rates potentially ranging from 10% to 70% [9] - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising has ranked first globally this year, reflecting strong market dynamics [9] - Saudi Arabia's foreign direct investment inflow reached $6.4 billion in the first quarter, marking a 24% year-on-year increase [9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - Zhihui Technology has secured a strategic investment of 1 billion yuan from Pudong Venture Capital and Zhangjiang Group [10] - Shinke Industrial has completed a financing round exceeding 100 million yuan, aimed at technology upgrades and international expansion [10] - Lingchuan Technology has raised several hundred million yuan in its Series A financing round, focusing on next-generation chip development [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unexpected concessions made by the U.S. towards China on July 3, which included lifting restrictions on key components for the C919 aircraft, chip design software, and ethane exports [2][3][27] - The concessions were a response to China's strategic control over rare earth exports, which significantly impacted U.S. industries, particularly the automotive sector [9][12][21] - The U.S. automotive giants, such as General Motors and Ford, expressed urgent concerns over the potential halt in production due to rare earth material shortages, prompting the need for negotiations with China [12][27] Group 2 - Trump's rationale for the concessions was based on the claim that China had not adhered to the Geneva tariff agreement, although this was disputed as China had complied except for rare earth export controls [5][7] - The negotiations led to a mutual understanding where China agreed to relax controls on civilian rare earth exports in exchange for the U.S. lifting its non-tariff export restrictions [7][14] - The article highlights that while the U.S. made concessions, China also benefited as it had already made significant progress in self-research and development of technologies related to the lifted restrictions [17][19][29] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the U.S. is facing challenges in establishing a new rare earth processing supply chain due to China's dominance in low-cost processing technology, which could take years to replicate [24][26] - The concessions made by the U.S. are seen as a strategic move to alleviate immediate pressures, including debt repayment and maintaining alliances, while the long-term benefits for China are expected to outweigh those for the U.S. [15][27][29] - The overall conclusion suggests that the mutual concessions may lead to a more favorable position for China in the technology sector, as it continues to advance its capabilities regardless of U.S. restrictions [19][29]

7月4日，中国商务部宣布对原产于欧盟的进口白兰地征收27.7%至34.9%的反倾销税，期限五年。几乎同时，彭博社报道称，中方已要求取消原定7月下旬举 行的中欧领导人会晤第二天议程。此举标志着，尽管中国外长王毅已向欧盟高层释放善意，中欧在核心问题上仍未达成一致。这些核心问题，正是欧盟对中 国电动汽车加征关税，以及持续炒作"中国援俄"论调。 欧盟的战略算盘，打错了？ 近日，中欧关系因稀土等问题再度紧张。回顾双方互动，欧盟的言行与其自身宣称的"战略自主"大相径庭，更像是在左右逢源，最终或将自食其果。 然而，欧盟似乎并未领会。德国外长贝尔伯克（Annalena Baerbock）公开批评中方对稀土等关键物资采取"单边且经常不很透明"的出口管制，声称此举"损 害了中德经贸关系，也损害了中国在德国作为可靠贸易伙伴的形象"，甚至还要求中国停止向俄罗斯提供"影响战局的关键物品"。 这种倒打一耙的行为，无视中国早已表明的立场：坚持劝和促谈，不向冲突方提供致命性武器，严格管控两用物项，包括无人机出口。正如耿爽大使年初在 联合国所说，"如果中国真的向俄罗斯提供军事补给，那战场的局势早就不是今天这个样子"。 更令人深思的是，《南华早 ...

7月5日，广州市商务局发布，2025年1~5月，广州市无人机出口量突破6134架，同比大增252%，其中农 业植保机型占比超50%。亮眼数据的背后，是广州市创新构建"四个一"服务体系的有力支撑。记者了解 到，根据现行国家法规，无人机属于出口管制类商品，出口企业需按照相关规定办理出口许可手续，由 商务部会同有关部门审查批准。针对农用无人机出口管制审批周期长的痛点，广州市商务局了解企业境 外销售客户的实际情况，开辟绿色审批通道，助力企业出口效率提升；通过定期反馈企业出口无人机的 最终用户信息确保产品用于合法领域，打造以合规为基础的高效可持续发展路径。(广州日报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and foreign ministers from Australia, India, and Japan aims to strengthen cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the area of critical mineral supply chains [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The four nations are initiating a "Quad Critical Minerals Action" to ensure the security and diversification of critical mineral supply chains, enhancing economic security and overall resilience [1]. - Rubio emphasized the importance of diversifying supply sources for key minerals, which are crucial for high-tech and various other industries [1][3]. Group 2: Concerns Over Supply Chain - The joint statement from the foreign ministers highlighted concerns over China's strengthened export controls on rare earths, which have raised serious worries about supply chain reliability [3]. - The four countries are wary of over-reliance on any single nation for resource supplies, which they believe could jeopardize national security [3]. Group 3: China's Position - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth market, being a major producer and exporter, which has led to dissatisfaction among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia regarding their dependence on Chinese supplies [3]. - China's recent amendments to its mineral resources law aim to enhance the security of its mineral resources and promote sustainable mining practices, reflecting a broader strategy to safeguard national interests [5][7]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures - China has implemented stricter controls on rare earths to combat issues like smuggling and illegal mining, reinforcing its commitment to national security in this critical sector [7]. - The Chinese government has established a tracking system for rare earth magnets, requiring producers to submit detailed transaction information to enhance oversight [7].

Core Viewpoint - Russia has reduced wheat export tariffs to zero in an effort to boost sales [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The elimination of export tariffs is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Russian wheat in the global market [1] - This move may lead to an increase in wheat exports from Russia, which is one of the world's largest wheat producers [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The decision is likely aimed at stabilizing domestic prices and supporting local farmers amid fluctuating global wheat prices [1] - By removing tariffs, Russia may also seek to capture a larger share of the international wheat market, potentially affecting global supply dynamics [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 6 月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。 首先，从 GDP 数据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口 的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9% 左右，预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右，接近 1 季度的 5.4% 。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计 6 月末抬升至 8.8% 左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓，但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5% 左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各国的关税谈判进展、地产的 库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 报告摘要 一、 GDP ：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右。 主要原因来看： 1 ）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季 度全部工业（规上 + 规下）增速在 5.9% 左右。 2 ）受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发 零售业 ...