Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in international oil, epoxy propane, and MDI due to geopolitical events affecting oil prices and strong downstream demand [1][10] - It suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the industry and sectors experiencing price hikes under the backdrop of "anti-involution" [1][11] - The report anticipates a recovery in industry profitability driven by the end of the current expansion cycle and rapid growth in new materials due to strong downstream demand [11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of March 2-8, 68 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, with 66% of products showing a month-on-month price rise [10][34] - WTI crude oil prices surged to $90.90 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of 35.63%, while Brent crude rose to $92.69 per barrel, up 27.88% [10][35] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are influencing oil and gas prices, with potential for significant volatility [35] Price Trends - Epoxy propane prices increased to 9,050 CNY/ton, up 13.13% week-on-week and 16.77% month-on-month [36] - MDI prices also rose, with pure MDI averaging 18,900 CNY/ton, a 7.39% increase from the previous week [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional chemical leaders with resilient operations and those expanding into new materials, as well as sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics [11] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Zhejiang Longsheng, among others [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Glass - Short - term outlook is bullish, mid - term is a sideways market. Short - term supply detection and cost increase drive a market rebound. In March, there may be further production cuts. Mid - term, the market will fluctuate between production cut - driven increases and demand - weakness and weak basis - driven decreases. In 2026, it may be a sideways market in the first half and bullish in the second half [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term rebound, mid - term sideways market. Cost increase due to war and spring maintenance in March - April drive the short - term rebound. Supply surplus, high forward futures premium, and future downstream production cuts are the main pressures. It follows the glass market but with lower volatility [3]. Summary by Directory Glass - Supply - This week, two production lines were ignited in North China and East China (electronic line), with a total capacity of 920 tons. As of March 5, 2026, there are 295 glass production lines (199,400 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 210 in production and 85 cold - repaired. The daily output is 148,500 tons, the same as on February 26. The average开工率 is 70.81% (up 0.54 percentage points), and the average capacity utilization rate is 74.47% (up 0.14 percentage points). The daily loss is 50,850 tons (down 0.20%) and the weekly loss is 356,350 tons (down 0.59%) [2]. - Potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 15,150 tons/day; potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 9,440 tons; potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 11,620 tons/day [6][7][8]. - Usually, the supply side tends to resume production from the second to the third quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 148,000 tons/day, and the peak in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [9][10]. Glass - Price and Profit - Most prices are stable. The price in Shahe is about 1,030 - 1,090 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei is about 1,080 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 1,260 - 1,340 yuan/ton [15][16][17][18]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum - coke is about 27 yuan/ton, while the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels are about - 105 and - 36 yuan/ton respectively [19][22][26]. Glass - Inventory and Downstream开工 - Downstream has just started, and short - term inventory still tends to rise, but recent transactions have improved. Current inventory is high, and most areas' inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. The key for the market in March - April is whether sales can improve significantly [30][31]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronous, and the price difference changes little [33]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit, Capacity and Inventory - In the first quarter, the situation is slightly weak. Focus on whether it can improve in mid - to late March or April. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.0 - 10.5 yuan/square meter (down 4.65% week - on - week), and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.0 - 17.5 yuan/square meter (down 2.82% week - on - week) [38][40]. - The production capacity has slightly shrunk. There are 399 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 88,100 tons/day (down 0.90% week - on - week). Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve slightly after the second quarter, and inventory may start to decline [41][42][44]. 纯碱 - Supply and Maintenance - This week, the supply of soda ash was adjusted at a high level. The weekly output was 807,000 tons (up 16,000 tons, 2.03% week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate was 86.77% (up 1.73% week - on - week). Some companies are under maintenance or have reduced operating loads [3][51]. - The capacity utilization rate is 85.04% (down from 86.77% last week). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 432,000 tons. There is still a supply surplus pressure [52][53]. 纯碱 - Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9472 million tons (up 52,800 tons, 2.79% week - on - week). Light soda ash inventory is 1.0273 million tons (up 28,800 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory is 919,900 tons (up 24,000 tons). Compared with the same period last year, it is up 187,300 tons (10.64%) [54][56][57]. 纯碱 - Price, Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - cash traders have increased significantly, while the ex - factory prices of manufacturers have changed little. The ex - factory prices in North China are concentrated around 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Central China are concentrated at 1,100 - 1,180 yuan/ton [64]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of the joint - alkali process in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali process in North China is - 83 yuan/ton [66][70].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. is currently experiencing a phase of loose monetary policy but tight credit conditions, with a strong dollar being a method for short-term resolution [2][3] - Geopolitical conflicts are expected to drive up oil prices in the medium term, benefiting the U.S. with strong dollar and capital inflows, although the weakening military strength of the U.S. may harm dollar credibility [3][10] - In the short to medium term, the report suggests allocating investments towards broad energy dividends and U.S. capital goods inflation, while recommending an increase in insurance and leading Chinese heavy asset stocks once the dollar begins to depreciate [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant downturn in the U.S. employment market, with February's non-farm payrolls showing a decrease of 92,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with market expectations of an increase of approximately 55,000 jobs [8][12] - The report notes that job losses are widespread across various sectors, including education, healthcare, and construction, indicating a broader economic slowdown [9][12] - The report emphasizes that the weakening non-farm employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, while the U.S. maintains a loose monetary policy despite a contraction in commercial credit [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The express delivery sector is positively influenced by regulatory measures against "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving service quality, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The logistics sector is recommended to focus on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being highlighted due to the anticipated recovery in chemical logistics driven by rising chemical product prices [3] - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery with increased flight volumes and potential for improved profitability as oil prices stabilize [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing high freight rates due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil transport routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [5] - The road and rail sectors are noted for their steady performance, with opportunities for investment in companies with attractive dividend yields [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 1.1%, indicating a slight outperformance of the transportation sector [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The export container shipping market is under pressure, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and 20.8% year-on-year [21] - High oil transport rates are maintained due to geopolitical tensions, with the BDTI index rising to 2868.4 points, up 51.4% week-on-week and 225.4% year-on-year [40] Aviation Airports - The average daily flights in China increased by 17.86% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 19.64% [4] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $92.69 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines [67] Rail and Road - The national highway freight traffic saw a significant increase of 229.68% week-on-week, although it remains down 35.52% year-on-year [84] - The railway sector reported a passenger volume increase of 8.52% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in rail transport [82] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector recorded a collection volume of approximately 4.231 billion packages, up 12.6% year-on-year, while delivery volume decreased by 6.3% year-on-year [2]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2026 年 03 月 08 日 工业硅：情绪扰动，提振盘面价格 多晶硅：现货下跌，盘面交易供需逻辑 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面先跌后涨，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面增仓下行，现货报价下跌 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面先跌后涨，本周受市场消息如新疆涨电价等情绪提振，部分空配资金 离场，盘面抬升。盘面收于 8690 元/吨。现货市场价格下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8500 元/吨（环比- 150），内蒙 99 硅报价 8900 元/吨(环比不变)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面增仓下跌，市场更多交易现货价格下跌的预期，盘面收于 41115 元 /吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，高库存压力下，上游报价逐步松动，关注后续下游采买情况。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存累库 工业硅供给端，关注后续复产节奏。据咨询商统计，本周开工环比小幅走高，主要来自于新疆地区工厂 复产，但后续受电价调整影响，后续暂未有开工计划。西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水 期成本在 10000 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The express delivery sector is positively influenced by regulatory measures against "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving service quality, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The logistics sector is recommended to focus on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co., Ltd. being highlighted due to the anticipated recovery in chemical logistics driven by rising chemical product prices [3] - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery with increased flight volumes and potential for improved profitability as supply constraints ease, recommending investments in major airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing high freight rates due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil transport routes, with a focus on maintaining high rates despite fluctuations in container shipping indices [5] - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with opportunities for investment in highway operators due to attractive dividend yields compared to government bond rates [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 1.1%, indicating a slight outperformance of the transportation sector [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions, with the CCFI index at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21] - Oil transport indices are high, with the BDTI index at 2868.4 points, up 51.4% week-on-week and up 225.4% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and pricing power in oil shipping [40] Aviation Airports - The average daily flights increased by 17.86% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 19.64%, suggesting a recovery in air travel demand [4] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $92.69 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines, but potential easing of geopolitical tensions may improve margins [67] Road and Rail - The highway sector showed a significant increase in truck traffic, with 32.72 million vehicles recorded, up 229.68% week-on-week, indicating robust demand [84] - Rail freight volumes are stabilizing, with a slight increase in passenger turnover, suggesting a positive trend in rail transport [82] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a collection volume of approximately 4.231 billion packages, up 12.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Sanwei Holding Group (603033.CH) Core Insights - The company is focused on maintaining market health through "anti-involution" strategies, which are expected to restore profitability in the polyester fiber sector [2] - Sanwei Holding Group has established a business structure centered around two main sectors: chemicals and transportation, with significant production capacities in BDO and calcium carbide [2] - The company anticipates a net loss of between 250 million to 380 million yuan for 2025, primarily due to losses from its subsidiary in Inner Mongolia [4] - The polyester fiber industry is expected to turn profitable in 2026, driven by industry self-regulation and supply-demand adjustments [4] - The calcium carbide industry is undergoing capacity clearance, leading to a gradual price recovery since 2026, with prices expected to rise by 5%-8% compared to 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the steel sector is experiencing a supply-demand optimization driven by policies addressing "involution" competition, which is expected to improve the long-standing issues of homogenized competition and excess capacity in the industry [3] - Current inventory pressures for the five major steel products are relatively limited, with overall inventory at historically low levels and the accumulation rate slower than in previous years [3] - The report suggests that the profitability of steel companies is expected to improve, particularly for those with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as the industry undergoes a "de-involution" phase [3] Supply Situation - As of March 6, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 85.3%, a decrease of 2.13 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2759 million tons, down 5.69 thousand tons week-on-week [23] - The total production of the five major steel products is 6.995 million tons, an increase of 1.15 thousand tons week-on-week [23] Demand Situation - The consumption of the five major steel products reached 6.914 million tons as of March 6, an increase of 126.70 thousand tons week-on-week, representing a 22.44% increase [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 57 thousand tons, up 2.17 thousand tons week-on-week, a 62.12% increase [33] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of the five major steel products is 14.031 million tons, an increase of 107.38 thousand tons week-on-week, or 8.29% [41] - The factory inventory of the five major steel products is 5.489 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 thousand tons week-on-week, or 0.27% [41] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,403.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan/ton week-on-week [47] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 72 yuan/ton, down 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces is -80 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port is 767 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [71] - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,715 yuan/ton, down 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [71] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - It also suggests paying attention to companies with excellent growth potential and those benefiting from the new energy cycle, such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of stable growth driven by the Two Sessions, with a focus on "anti-involution" measures [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 3,023, with a weekly change of -3.5% and a year-to-date change of 13.6% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,170 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of -4.5% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 101 USD/ton, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 6.6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,402,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8.3% and a year-to-date increase of 60.8% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 549,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 31.9% and a year-to-date increase of 42.4% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 17,123,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 7.9% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 240,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with a focus on maintaining production efficiency [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the upward trend in freight rates, particularly in oil shipping, and recommends focusing on highway investments as a safe haven [1][4] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in international routes and a favorable demand environment, with a focus on major airlines and low-cost carriers [4][5] - The logistics and express delivery sectors are seeing improvements in operational quality due to anti-competitive measures and technological advancements [6][7] Summary by Sections Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from March 2 to March 6 showed a decrease in flight numbers for major airlines, but year-on-year comparisons indicate growth [4][5] - Average aircraft utilization rates also declined week-on-week, but showed positive year-on-year growth [4][5] - The report notes a significant increase in Brent crude oil prices, impacting airline stock prices negatively, but anticipates recovery as geopolitical tensions ease [4][5] Shipping Data Tracking - The report indicates a clear upward trend in shipping rates, particularly in oil shipping, with significant increases in relevant indices [6][7] - The BDTI index for oil shipping rose by 54.14% week-on-week and 248.35% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and limited supply [6][7] - The report suggests that geopolitical conflicts may reshape global shipping dynamics, presenting investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks significant increases in freight traffic across highways, railways, and ports, indicating a recovery in logistics activity [6][7] - The express delivery sector is expected to see continued growth driven by anti-competitive policies and advancements in automation [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong operational performance and growth potential in the logistics sector [6][7] Infrastructure Investment Insights - The report recommends investing in highway infrastructure due to rising demand and favorable economic conditions [6][7] - It highlights specific companies in the highway sector that are expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects and stable cash flows [6][7]