Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand situations, and price movements of different commodities based on fundamental and technical factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies and future outlooks [11][13][22]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Information - President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized its function as the concentrated承载 area for relocating non - capital functions of Beijing [6]. - US President Trump claimed to have "strong" dialogues with Iran and form the outline of an agreement, but Iran denied the claim. There are still many uncertainties in the US - Iran relationship [6]. - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran will take counter - measures if attacked [7]. - China implemented temporary regulation on refined oil prices for the first time in 13 years. The actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices was less than the calculated increase [7]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 will be held from March 24th to 27th [7]. - Beijing's three departments约谈ed 12 platform companies and put forward rectification requirements [8]. - 20 listed companies disclosed share repurchase plans or progress due to recent capital market fluctuations [8]. - The US Vice - President and Israeli Prime Minister discussed the negotiation with Iran, and Israel continued to attack Iran and Lebanon [9]. - The Chicago Fed President said inflation is the main risk in the US economy, and there is a possibility of interest rate hikes, but also a chance of rate cuts later this year if the Iran conflict is resolved [9]. - Japan's largest labor union achieved an average salary increase of 5.26%, which increased the market's expectation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider right - side trial long positions. The stock market declined significantly, and the decline was related to the Middle East conflict and inflation expectations. The current position has certain odds, and short - term winning probability may increase [11]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has a certain decline. The supply side has a small increase in iron - water production. The cost side has strong support, but high inventory suppresses prices. The short - term is expected to rebound but with limited space [13][14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The price increase is affected by the energy substitution logic due to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the emotional premium fades, the price may fall back [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are deteriorating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. 4. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. In the medium - to - long term, the supply of copper concentrate is tight, which provides marginal support [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish with small rebounds [25]. - **Lead**: The inventory has stopped rising, and the price is expected to be volatile. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelters' reluctance to sell at low prices and the increase in downstream procurement may reduce the inventory pressure [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [29]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and opportunities to sell call options can be considered after a rebound. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile, and caution is needed in operation [30]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a high - level volatile state due to external conflicts and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The future trend is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand changes, and weather [33][34]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is under pressure from supply and fluctuates in a range. The global sugar supply situation is controversial, and the domestic sugar price is affected by supply pressure and import cost [35][36]. - **Eggs**: The recent consumption recovery supports the egg price, but the supply pressure is large. The futures near - month contract has upward pressure, and the second - half - year contract is suppressed by normal replenishment [37][38]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple sources may continue to be strong, and the price is expected to be strong. The market is affected by the inventory level and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [39][40]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and consider rolling 5 - 7 reverse spreads. The price is supported by low inventory in the short term but may be suppressed by policy regulation and the substitution of wheat [40]. - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the price is affected by the sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [41]. - **Pigs**: For futures, consider selling out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is limited, but the live - stock inventory may start to decline [42]. 6. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have weakened, but there are still many uncertainties. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the oil price may return to fundamental trading. If no agreement is reached, the oil price may continue to rise [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [45][46]. - **Plastic**: The price is supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East and the reduction of upstream production. The short - term is expected to be slightly stronger, and the long - term depends on the end of the war [47]. - **Rubber**: Be cautious about chasing long positions. Pay attention to the opening of the domestic Yunnan production area and the impact of the conflict on tire exports [48]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is driven by the cost side and may have upward space, but be cautious about chasing the rise [49]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may be slightly stronger due to geopolitical factors, but it may回调 if the war eases. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there are uncertainties [50][51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is affected by the increase in coal prices, supply reduction, and export growth, as well as the high futures premium. The long - and short - term logics are clear [52]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a state of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the impact of the oil price and raw material import risks is dominant [53]. - **PVC**: The price may be slightly stronger in the short term due to the reduction of upstream production, but there is a risk of回调 if the market sentiment turns bad [54]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The cost side is weakening, but the supply contraction provides support. Appropriate reduction of long positions is recommended. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact, device maintenance, and demand recovery [55][56]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Geopolitical risks have weakened, but there are still uncertainties. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, it may return to fundamental trading. The price is expected to weaken but may be relatively stronger than crude oil [57]. - **Paper Pulp**: Pay attention to the impact of macro and commodity sentiment. The price may be supported by the low valuation and the improvement of the fundamentals [58]. - **Log**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity sentiment. The demand is recovering, and the cost provides support. The fundamentals may stabilize if the demand can keep up with the increase in supply [59]. - **Urea**: The far - month contract is affected by coal and chemical futures, and the near - month contract should follow the policy [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, multiple agricultural and related commodity varieties are experiencing significant fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. - Different commodities show different trends: some are trending strongly, some are oscillating, and some are weakening. For example, synthetic rubber is trending strongly, while pork prices are hitting new lows [1][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats are trending strongly due to rising crude oil prices. The overall inventory of edible oils in China has decreased, with different trends in the inventory of each type of oil. In the future, attention should be paid to the risks of crude oil decline and the expected difference in biodiesel policies [5]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East have led to a rise in crude oil prices, which in turn boosts the trend of oils and fats. Although the inventory of domestic oils has decreased, the demand is relatively weak, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at low levels [5]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The long - short forces are stalemated, and the two types of protein meal are oscillating [5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, factors such as the expected postponement of the US President's visit to China and the high - level oscillation of crude oil prices affect the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the expected relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans and the traditional shutdown season have an impact on the supply and demand of protein meal [6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. Rapeseed meal may be weaker than soybean meal [6]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory and continued replenishment, corn futures are strengthening again [6]. - **Logic**: The supply of corn shows a differentiated trend, with an increase in the supply of wet corn in North China and a rise in port prices. The demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is improving, and the inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and started to increase. The impact of substitute products such as wheat still needs to be observed [9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term, but attention should be paid to the possible callback pressure caused by factors such as the increase in wet corn supply and the release of substitute products [9]. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: With a loose supply - demand relationship, pig prices have hit new lows [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply of pigs has increased, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig slaughter remains high. In the long - term, the reduction of sow inventory is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and recover in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to hedging opportunities by short - selling at high levels. In the fourth quarter, the price may rise moderately [10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Macro - sentiment has a dominant influence, and attention should be paid to the support at low levels [11]. - **Logic**: After a sharp decline, the rubber price has stabilized. With the start of the harvest season in Yunnan and the impact on tire orders to the Middle East, the price is under downward pressure. The support from synthetic rubber needs to be continuously observed [13]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental variables [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The synthetic rubber market has hit the daily limit twice this month [14]. - **Logic**: The continuous escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in crude oil prices, and the trading logic has shifted to the shortage of butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and there may be a shortage of spot goods in the future. As long as the geopolitical situation remains tense, the price is likely to rise [15]. - **Outlook**: The market will mainly follow the sector sentiment. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: There is support at the bottom and pressure at the top [15]. - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the cotton processing and inspection are basically completed, and the inventory is starting to decrease. The export data of textile and clothing is good, and the demand in March is strong. However, the announcement of the sliding - scale tariff quota and the negative macro - expectations have led to an oscillating correction of the domestic market [15]. - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels during the correction [15]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, domestic and international sugar prices oscillate following the oil price. In the long - term, there is a hidden upward - driving force in the surplus pattern [16]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the sugar price is affected by the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict. Although the global sugar market is in a surplus situation, high oil prices may affect the production in Brazil's new harvest season and tighten the global sugar supply [16]. - **Outlook**: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and the short - term price reference range is 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market maintains an independent trend and continues to oscillate within a range [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp fluctuates due to the game between long and short forces. The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the future will decline seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support at low levels [18]. - **Outlook**: The pulp price is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and pressure at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - offset paper market is strengthening with the rebound of commodities [19]. - **Logic**: The supply of double - offset paper has increased, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream printers is mainly for rigid needs, and the market is moving slowly. However, in the short - and medium - term, the traditional demand season and the paper enterprises' desire to repair profits may lead to a short - term price increase [20]. - **Outlook**: The double - offset paper market is expected to oscillate. In the short - term, it may first rise and then fall, and in the long - term, it will oscillate within the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton [20]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The price of logs is strengthening due to increased costs [22]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in international oil prices, which has raised the shipping cost from New Zealand to China. New Zealand suppliers have reduced production and raised prices, resulting in a supply - demand mismatch. However, the actual demand recovery is slow, and there may be short - term high - level oscillation risks [22]. - **Outlook**: Logs are expected to oscillate strongly, with strong support at the bottom and obvious hedging pressure at the top [22]. Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The agricultural product index on March 23, 2026, was 965.09, with a daily decline of 0.10%, a decline of 0.91% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.20% in the past month, and an increase of 3.43% since the beginning of the year [182][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2] - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions, take profits on rallies [4] - For urea, short on rallies considering the high - expected first - quarter production and the low cost - performance of export quotas. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] - For rubber, trade flexibly on the short - term, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position. The RU below 16700 has turned bearish technically, and out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber can still be allocated [12] - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the high non - integrated profit of styrene and large geopolitical influence on the market, it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [19] - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread on rallies after the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22] - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while long - term contradictions shift from the cost side to production capacity mismatch [24] - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, inventory is expected to decrease significantly, and the subsequent valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [27] - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [30][31] - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease sharply, inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, and there is an expectation of large - scale import shrinkage, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [33] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 58.20 yuan/barrel, a 7.50% increase, at 834.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 286.00 yuan/ton, a 5.99% increase, at 5060.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 203.00 yuan/ton, a 3.51% increase, at 5980.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei changed by 205 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 271.00 yuan/ton, closing at 3351 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 117 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions, take profits on rallies [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by - 10 yuan/ton, - 20 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, closing at 1884 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short on rallies considering the high - expected first - quarter production and the low cost - performance of export quotas. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to concerns about the economic outlook caused by the Middle East situation, the stock market and sensitive commodities fell. RU and NR fell due to demand prospects, while butadiene rubber rose due to cost increases and reduced refinery operating rates. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 136.49 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease and a 1.13% decline from the previous period. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber decreased by 1.34%, and that of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons [9][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly on the short - term, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position. The RU below 16700 has turned bearish technically, and out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber can still be allocated [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 376 yuan, closing at 6251 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 6020 (+350) yuan/ton, the basis was - 231 (- 16) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 36 (- 15) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2650 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1425 (+75) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 708 (+19) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.1%, a 1.2% decline from the previous period; the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a 1.8% increase; the ethylene method was 69.2%, an 8.4% decline. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a 2.3% increase. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 8635 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active contract was 9205 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 570 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 10300 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active contract was 11070 yuan/ton, a 966 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 770 yuan/ton, a 1016 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was - 81.5 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 594.35 yuan/ton, a 574.5 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a 1.33% decline. The inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.60 million tons to 16.25 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.93%, a 0.60% increase; the PS operating rate was 51.60%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, a 3.22% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a 0.30% decline [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the high non - integrated profit of styrene and large geopolitical influence on the market, it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9523 yuan/ton, a 705 - yuan/ton increase; the spot price was 8875 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 648 yuan/ton, a 255 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a 0.39% increase. The weekly inventory of production enterprises decreased by 0.71 million tons to 56.83 million tons, and the inventory of traders increased by 0.48 million tons to 5.48 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a 1.17% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 211 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton decrease [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread on rallies after the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9793 yuan/ton, a 774 - yuan/ton increase; the spot price was 9275 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was - 518 yuan/ton, a 374 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a 0.17% increase. The weekly inventory of production enterprises decreased by 6.14 million tons to 59.62 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.244 million tons to 19.36 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons to 7.19 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a 0.29% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 270 yuan/ton, a 69 - yuan/ton decrease. The PP5 - 9 spread was 499 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton increase [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while long - term contradictions shift from the cost side to production capacity mismatch [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 708 yuan, closing at 10390 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 114 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating load was 84.6%, a 0.1% decline; the Asian operating load was 74.8%, a 2.1% decline. The restart of the Daxie plant was postponed, the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was shut down, and the Kuwaiti plant overseas was shut down. The PTA operating load was 80.8%, a 3.5% increase. In the first and middle of March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 31.1 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 81 US dollars (- 130), the South Korean PX - MX was 87 US dollars (- 10), and the naphtha cracking spread was 375 US dollars (- 30) [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is expected to decline further, inventory is expected to decrease significantly, and the subsequent valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 484 yuan, closing at 7134 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating load was 80.8%, a 3.5% increase. The downstream operating load was 87.6%, a 0.9% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a 2.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The on - disk processing fee increased by 19 yuan to 318 yuan [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [30][31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan, closing at 5574 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 150 yuan (- 44). The ethylene glycol operating load was 66.5%, a 0.3% decline; the synthetic - gas - based operating load was 72.3%, a 2.4% decline, and the ethylene - based operating load was 63.2%, a 0.8% increase. The downstream operating load was 87.6%, a 0.9% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure was 1.39 million tons on March 22. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 3118 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 2671 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1425 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease sharply, inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, and there is an expectation of large - scale import shrinkage, but be cautious of the large short - term gains [33]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the easing Middle East tensions on global financial markets, with U.S. stock indices rising over 1% and international oil prices dropping significantly, with WTI crude oil falling by 10.28% to $88.13 per barrel and Brent crude by 10.92% to $99.94 per barrel [2][4] - President Trump's statements have alleviated market concerns about escalating tensions, leading to a decline in the VIX fear index by over 2% [2] - The Iranian military claims effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, stating that they do not need to lay mines in the Persian Gulf but will take necessary measures to ensure security [8][7] Group 2 - Trump indicated that the U.S. is negotiating with Iran to potentially reach a broader agreement, suggesting that Iran is serious about reconciliation [5] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu mentioned that Trump communicated the possibility of achieving war objectives against Iran through an agreement, while also stating that Israel will continue airstrikes against Iran and Lebanon [5] - Market analysts express that the rebound in the S&P 500 does not change the core issue of high oil prices driving inflation expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy [6]

全线反攻 美东时间3月24日，美股三大指数集体收涨，但涨幅较盘初明显收窄，标普500指数涨1.15%，纳指涨1.38%， 道指涨1.38%。 美伊局势彻底搅动全球金融市场。 受中东局势出现缓和迹象影响，隔夜美股三大指数全线收涨，涨幅均超1%，欧洲股市亦集体走高，国际油价 则大幅跳水，美油、布油日内一度暴跌超14%。有分析指出，美国总统特朗普的一系列言论缓解了市场对局势 继续升级的担忧情绪， VIX恐慌指数收跌超2%。 目前，霍尔木兹海峡的最新动态也备受市场关注。今日凌晨，据央视新闻报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆·安比亚 中央司令部发言人表示，伊朗已在波斯湾及阿曼湾相关海域掌握主动权，并对霍尔木兹海峡实施有效控制，伊 朗无需在波斯湾布设水雷，但将在必要时采取一切手段保障安全。 美股大型科技股普涨，博通大涨超4%，亚马逊涨超2%，英伟达、苹果、Meta涨超1%，谷歌、微软小幅收 涨。 热门中概股全线上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.86%，结束此前4个交易日的连续下跌。其中，小鹏汽 车、蔚来汽车大涨超7%，富途控股大涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨近3%，理想汽车涨超2%，拼多多、京东、百度、 携程、哔哩哔哩均小幅收涨。 欧洲股市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iran has demonstrated its capability to inflict significant damage on Israel, despite Israel's advanced military defense systems, with the recent attack resulting in approximately 200 injuries [1]. Group 1 - Iran launched its most destructive attack on Israel to date [1] - The attack highlights vulnerabilities even in nations with superior military technology [1] - The incident raises concerns about geopolitical stability in the region [1]

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, leading to upward pressure on global oil prices and inflation expectations, which may suppress global macro liquidity [1][4] - The report suggests an overweight allocation to Chinese equities and oil due to the current market conditions [1][4] - The transition from reflation trading to stagflation trading is noted, with a recommendation to focus on short to medium-term bonds over long-term bonds due to rising inflation expectations [1][4][16] Group 2 - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese stock market, recommending an overweight position in A-shares, as the market is expected to find a significant bottom [16][18] - The performance of major asset classes is reviewed, with specific attention to the recent declines in various indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index [9][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact asset pricing [15][17] Group 3 - The report outlines a tactical asset allocation strategy, with a focus on equities (45%), bonds (45%), and commodities (10%), reflecting a balanced approach to risk and return [19][20] - The tactical asset allocation model has shown a cumulative excess return of 5.85% relative to the benchmark, indicating effective positioning in the current market environment [21][22] - Specific recommendations include an overweight in oil due to geopolitical tensions and a cautious stance on long-duration bonds amid rising inflation pressures [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the cost - end international oil prices fluctuate significantly due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Israel - Iran conflict, being overall strong but with high premiums and a risk of correction. In March, multiple units enter maintenance, and Asian refineries reduce production due to geopolitical factors, leading to an expected decline in pure benzene supply. Although the domestic weekly production and operation rate increase slightly, the overall downstream comprehensive operation rate drops slightly. However, the styrene load increases significantly, providing strong demand support. In March, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve with the impetus for inventory reduction. The valuation is moderately low, and the significant increase in naphtha compresses the BZN spread. In the short term, the pure benzene price fluctuates with oil prices, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical situation [3]. - For styrene, supported by industry profits, in March, unit restarts and maintenance co - exist. The Junchen maintenance is postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng starts trial production, resulting in limited supply increase. The weekly production and operation rate decline slightly. After the festival, demand gradually recovers, with an increase in the consumption of the three major downstream products. Coupled with the support of previous export shipments, the supply - demand remains in a tight balance. Affected by the tightening supply of pure benzene and ethylene, styrene profits are continuously compressed, and the valuation is high. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand contract pick - up, and the market follow - up is sluggish. In the short term, the price fluctuates sharply with oil prices, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream operation rates and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - On March 11, the main continuous contract of styrene closed down 0.96% at 9820 yuan/ton, and the main continuous contract of pure benzene closed up 0.50% at 8047 yuan/ton. International oil prices fluctuate widely due to the Middle - East situation, and after the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, they have corrected but remain strong in the short term. The weekly production of pure benzene is 44.16 tons (+0.23 tons), and the operation rate is 74.58% (+0.38%). The overall downstream operation rate drops slightly, with the styrene operation rate at 70.46% (-1.33%), phenol at 87.4% (+0.4%), caprolactam at 77% (+2.5%), and aniline at 88.33% (-0.71%). The BZN spread is compressed to around - 82 dollars/ton, with a moderately low valuation. The weekly production of styrene is 35.34 tons (-0.67 tons), and the operation rate is 70.46% (-1.33%). The downstream consumption is 26.58 tons (+0.47 tons), with the EPS operation rate at 61% (+3.22%), PS at 51.6% (-0.1%), and ABS at 67.1% (-0.3%). The non - integrated cash flow is compressed to - 26 yuan/ton, with a high valuation [2]. 3.1.2 Views - See the core viewpoints above [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices | Data Indicator | 2026/03/19 | 2026/03/20 | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Continuous) | 10218.0 | 10104.0 | -1.12% | yuan/ton | | Styrene (Spot) | 10290.0 | 10610.0 | 3.11% | yuan/ton | | Styrene Basis | 182.0 | -39.0 | -121.43% | yuan/ton | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Continuous) | 8375.0 | 8333.0 | -0.50% | yuan/ton | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 8315.0 | 8185.0 | -1.56% | yuan/ton | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | 1081.4 | 1049.6 | -2.94% | dollars/ton | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | 1237.8 | 1261.7 | 1.92% | dollars/ton | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | 1092.5 | 1058.5 | -3.11% | dollars/ton | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Spread | -748.2 | -588.7 | 21.32% | yuan/ton | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Spread | 715.0 | 585.0 | -18.18% | yuan/ton | | Brent Crude Oil | 95.5 | 95.6 | 0.09% | dollars/ton | | WTI Crude Oil | 107.4 | 108.7 | 1.18% | dollars/ton | | Naphtha | 8350.0 | 8366.7 | 0.20% | yuan/ton | [5] 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory | Data Indicator | 2026/03/13 | 2026/03/20 | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 36.0 | 35.3 | -1.85% | tons | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 43.9 | 44.2 | 0.52% | tons | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 15.7 | 16.3 | 3.83% | tons | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 30.2 | 28.8 | -4.64% | tons | [6] 3.2.3 Operation Rate | Capacity Utilization | 2026/03/13 | 2026/03/20 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 71.8 | 70.5 | -1.33 | % | | Caprolactam (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 74.9 | 77.2 | 2.34 | % | | Phenol (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 86.9 | 87.4 | 0.53 | % | | Aniline (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 89.0 | 88.3 | -0.71 | % | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 57.8 | 61.0 | 3.22 | % | | SBV (Styrene Downstream) | 67.4 | 67.1 | -0.30 | % | | b2 (Styrene Downstream) | 51.7 | 51.6 | -0.10 | % | [7] 3.3 Industry News - The April WTI crude oil rose 6.35 to 81.01 dollars/barrel, a rise of 8.51%; the May Brent crude oil rose 4.01 to 85.41 dollars/barrel, a rise of 4.93% [8]. - On Thursday, the CFR price of Honglian PX increased by 28 dollars to 1056.67 dollars, equivalent to about 8404 yuan/ton, a rise of 223 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - US President Trump said that further measures would be taken to relieve the oil pressure [8]. - Traders increased their bets on the European Central Bank's interest - rate hike, with a 75% probability of a rate hike this year [8]. - According to official Bahraini news, a facility at the main refinery of the Bahrain National Oil Company was hit by an Iranian missile on the 5th, causing a fire [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, PS profit margin and operation rate, ABS profit margin and operation rate, EPS profit margin and operation rate, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, phenol weekly capacity utilization, and aniline weekly capacity utilization [9][17][22][24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of urea is expected to remain firm in the short term, with the market showing high volatility. The current market is affected by international geopolitics, and its own supply - demand logic has weakened marginally. It is necessary to focus on the opportunity to return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [2]. - The inventory of urea is expected to continue to decline next week, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Most regions' quotes remained stable over the weekend, with some factories lowering prices. After the futures rose today, the trading sentiment improved, and the spot price is expected to be firm in the short term. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market generally declined. By March 23, the main May contract of urea closed at 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on March 16. The weekly trading volume was 2349.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1590.28 million tons; the position was 849.71 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.15 million tons. On March 23, the urea warehouse receipt increased by 657 to 8715 [7][9]. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of March 23, the basis of the 05 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From March 12 to March 18, the weekly output of urea was 1.5194 billion tons, a decrease of 182 million tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The average daily output was 217,100 tons. Next cycle, 3 enterprises have复产 plans and 3 have shutdown plans. On March 23, the national daily output of urea was 216,500 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.31% [14]. - The price of coal and liquefied natural gas increased last week, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong strengthened by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price difference between methanol and urea in Shandong increased by 170 yuan/ton week - on - week [15][18]. 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of March 20, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. Compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - start - up and de - stocking trend, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase next week. As of March 20, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 49.97%, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [21]. - From March 14 to March 20, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 59.31, an increase of 5.96 percentage points compared to the previous period and 2.53 percentage points higher than the same period last year [22]. - As of March 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 15.53%, and 229,100 tons lower than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 167,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to the previous week [23]. 3.5 International Market - The situation in Iran has not cooled down. Geopolitical conflicts have led to the shutdown of energy facilities, causing raw material suppliers and factories to shut down. International urea prices have increased significantly. India said it will not tender in the near term but is expected to take action at the end of March. Most urea - importing countries in the world are facing shortages [25]. - As of March 20, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 712.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67.5 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 722.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton [25][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to price fluctuations in various commodities [1][2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, while medium - to long - term trends depend on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic conditions [11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Affected by external disturbances and low market sentiment, the stock index has been continuously adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short - term, and it is relatively strong in the medium - to long - term [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Inflation concerns caused by the Middle East situation and high oil prices suppress long - term bond trends, while short - term bonds benefit from stable capital. If the stock market decline expands, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion sentiment [2]. Container Shipping on European Routes The market has entered a high - level wide - range shock. The core logic has shifted from trading geopolitical conflicts to weighing risk premiums and the reality of the off - season. Near - month contracts are subject to repeated games between events and spot markets, and far - month contracts price in long - term conflicts, with high volatility risks [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, leading to inflation concerns. The shift in monetary policy expectations suppresses platinum and palladium prices. There are short - term price fluctuations [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Reversal of the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations, rising US dollar index and real interest rates of US bonds, and the escalation of Middle East conflicts have put pressure on gold and silver prices. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short - term [5]. - **Copper**: Tightening macro - expectations and weak industrial reality have caused copper prices to break through key ranges. In the short - term, the price remains weak, and in the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to marginal changes in macro - expectations and industrial supply - demand [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical factors initially pushed up prices, but then concerns about economic recession and liquidity tightening, along with a significant cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, have made aluminum prices fluctuate weakly. There is a possibility of price increases if raw material shortages lead to more production cuts [6]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity has declined, narrowing the oversupply situation, but new production capacity in Guangxi has brought supply pressure. Overseas, geopolitical factors in the Middle East have affected orders, and shipping costs have risen. The fundamentals are mixed, and cost and policy expectations provide phased support [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It strongly follows the price of Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below due to raw material shortages and the impact of tax refund policies [7]. - **Zinc**: The price is at the lower end of the range, with some support from downstream purchases. The supply pressure from domestic smelting is increasing, and the demand recovery is delayed. In the short - term, it runs weakly [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Fluctuate following macro - guidance. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict have put pressure on prices. The fundamentals are in a more intense game, and attention should be paid to demand release and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Tin**: Suppressed by both macro - panic sentiment and fundamentals. In the short - term, there is no obvious turning point, and in the medium - to long - term, the price center moves upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Polysilicon has entered a loss - making range. The current is the bottom of the production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to production - capacity clearance and supply - demand optimization [10]. - **Lead**: The price fluctuates and adjusts. The supply side brings upward pressure, and the demand side recovers slowly. The price oscillates within a range [10]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran have pushed up oil and coking coal prices, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils form upward pressure. The short - term rebound height is limited [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The cost side provides support, but in the medium - to long - term, new production capacity will make the fundamentals looser [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There is a short - term surplus of coking coal, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [12]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hurricane disturbances in Australia have affected manganese ore shipments, and coking coal provides cost support. The demand for ferroalloys from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, with large de - stocking pressure [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and short - term upward momentum still exists. The price fluctuates at a high level [13]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have restricted the inflow of regional oil. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has tightened significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply gap will support the spot premium and refinery profits in the short - term [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances have led to short - term price increases in crude oil, and in the short - term, geopolitical factors are the core determinants [14]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have provided cost support, and there are risks of reduced production in refineries. The market is short - term volatile and strong [15]. - **LPG**: The futures price has risen significantly driven by capital sentiment. The fundamentals provide limited support, and it enters a high - level shock in the short - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The situation in Iran threatens production and transportation, and geopolitical games are the core logic. The supply - demand pattern is dominated by geopolitics, and device uncertainties increase volatility [16]. - **PP and Propylene**: The fundamentals are still strong, and they are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend before the geopolitical risks are eliminated [17]. - **Plastic**: If the conflict continues, it is expected to run strongly; if the situation eases, some risk premiums will be withdrawn, but it is difficult to fall back to the pre - event level in the short - term [17]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber has risen significantly driven by energy costs and geopolitics, while natural rubber is under pressure from weak macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand structure supports the valuation [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains high, and the demand is stable but weak. The inventory performance is better than expected, and the price movement is restricted by supply - demand and macro - factors [18]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The price oscillates under the combined action of supply - demand and cost [19][20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply has tightened marginally, and the demand has improved marginally. The overall supply - demand pattern has improved, and the futures price is jointly driven by fundamentals and market sentiment [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The market is in a complex game stage. In the short - term, the hog price may continue to bottom around 10 yuan/kg, and the subsequent trend depends on whether cash - flow pressure can force capacity out - clearing [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April has been postponed. In the short - term, the spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is being repaired [21]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The price of crude oil is the core influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia and the US [22]. - **Cotton**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to crude - oil fluctuations and increased macro - risks. In the short - term, the price has fallen, but in the medium - to long - term, the downstream demand has resilience, and the lower support is stable [23]. - **Sugar**: The expected sugar production in Brazil has been lowered, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has made capital cautious. The domestic supply - demand pattern is stable, and the sugar price oscillates [23]. - **Egg**: The supply of small - sized eggs is tight in some areas, and the feed price provides cost support. The short - term price adjusts slightly, and the upward space is limited [24]. - **Apple**: The Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is progressing, and the market is polarized. The fundamentals and delivery logic support the futures price, which maintains a strong - oscillating pattern [24]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side, and the downstream sales are mediocre. The price is under pressure and may oscillate at a low level [25].