Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 9 AM today to introduce a "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM the following day [1]

据悉，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）是目前A股市场仅有的两只百亿元红利主题ETF 品种，最新规模分别达218.44亿元、158.36亿元。受益于标的指数成分股2025年来现金分红水平的持续 提升，截至4月30日，红利指数、红利低波指数的最新股息率（近12个月）分别为6.90%、6.59%，高于 近十年93.79%、95.93%的时间。（数据来源：交易所、Wind、上市公司公告） 当地时间2025年5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议。在"关税风波"尚未渐息之际，美联储政策的不确 定性或同样成为近期扰动市场的主要因素之一，随着市场情绪反复拉锯，资金对具备较强防御属性红利 类资产颇为青睐。 其中，目前A股市场两只百亿级红利主题类ETF头部品种——红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF （512890）交投高度活跃，4月30日全日成交额分别为3.57亿元、8.08亿元，较前一交易日大幅增长 46%、188%。（数据来源：交易所） 年初以来（截至2025年4月30日），红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）累计吸引6.4亿元、 22.4亿元资金净流入，红利低波ETF（ ...

上周，现货黄金市场经历剧烈波动，周线下跌2.28%，收于3240.60美元，较4月22日创下的历史高点 3500.05美元回落约7%。今日欧市盘中，黄金大幅上涨，目前在3257美元附近徘徊。 特朗普重大宣布！ 上周，经济数据暂缓市场担忧，美三大指数集体收涨，最终道指涨3%，标普500指数涨2.92%，纳指涨 3.42%。 本周，全球金融市场即将迎来"美联储时刻"。 当地时间5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议，目前市场一致预期，美联储将按兵不动。 芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率高达97.2%，降息25个基点的概率为2.8%； 美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为65.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34%，累计降息50个基点的概率 为0.9%。 因此，下周美联储利率决议最大的看点或许是美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。有分析人士警告称，鲍 威尔可能会以"鹰派"基调反驳美联储将受到美国白宫影响的说法，这可能导致美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔 冲突再度升级。 此前，特朗普再次表示不会罢免鲍威尔。 当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）采访时，再次批评了美联储主席 鲍威尔不降低 ...

5月5日，离岸人民币盘中一度升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，创近半年以来新高。 Wind行情显示，上周五离岸人民币开启大涨，日内上涨近700点。本周一上涨继续，离岸人民币一度攀升至7.1891，创去年11月12日以来新高。 | < W | 美元指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDX.FX | | | | | | 99.7490 | 前收 | | | 99.9947 开盘 | | | -0.2934 | -0.29% | 英品 | 99.7490 | 99.7490 买入 | | | 最高 | 100.0524 | 今年来 | -8.05% | 20 日 日 -3.63% | | | 最低 | 99.6258 1.42% | 10 日 | | 60 日 -7.92% | | | 分时 | | | 五日 日K | | | | 晉加 | | | | | | | 100.4590 | | | | | 0.42% | | 100.0424 | | | | | 0.00% | | 99.6258 | | | | | -0.42% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamentals show a marginal recovery trend, but the foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations are to be further strengthened. Overseas, there are signs of economic slowdown in the US, and the Fed's policy still leans towards combating inflation. The bond market is likely to return to the fundamental - driven logic, with the interest rate center having room to decline. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities [97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2503, T2503, TF2503, TS2503) rose by 0.90%, 0.21%, 0.16%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased. The positions of TS and TL main contracts decreased, while those of TF and T main contracts increased [9][19][25]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed overall upward trends, with different increases for different maturities [13][19]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On April 28, six departments including the Ministry of Commerce optimized the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers. The Politburo meeting proposed to stabilize and activate the capital market. "Second - home to first - home" can enjoy special tax deductions for housing loan interest. On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement [31]. - **Overseas News**: The IMF lowered the GDP growth forecast for Asia this year to 3.9%. The US Treasury plans to net borrow $514 billion in the second quarter. The US consumer confidence index in April was at a new low since May 2020 [32]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y Treasury yields narrowed. The spreads between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures all narrowed slightly [38][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract increased [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yield**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate declined. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.78%. The yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities decreasing by 0.5 - 3bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 3bp and 5bp to 1.62% and 1.86% respectively [68]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.1503 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 735.8 billion yuan. The capital shortage situation improved [77]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 593.747 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 669.751 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 76.004 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2014, with a cumulative increase of 52 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [84]. - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly this week [89]. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly this week [94]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Fundamentals and Policy**: The domestic economy is in a marginal recovery, but the foundation needs to be consolidated. Overseas, the US economy shows signs of slowdown. The bond market is expected to return to the fundamental - driven logic, and the interest rate center may decline. Attention should be paid to the coordinated effect of the potential Fed rate - cut in June and the domestic RRR - cut window [97]. - **Investment Strategy**: Given the current differentiation between short - and long - term Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities. If the short - end does not stabilize, beware of the risk of long - end decline due to the correction of term spreads [97].

周三现货黄金延续了回调态势。市场情绪受多重因素共同作用，特别是美国总统特朗普近期针对关税及美联储政策所发表的温和言论，促使避险资产黄金面 临获利回吐压力。与此同时全球股市与债券市场因风险偏好增强而呈现上涨态势，黄金作为传统避险资产，承受了较大压力。展望未来，黄金市场将在基本 面与技术面的双重影响下，维持较高的波动性。短期内特朗普温和表态所引发的避险情绪降温，可能持续对金价构成下行压力；然而从长期视角来看，避险 需求与基本面支撑依然坚实。翁富豪认为需密切关注美国政策动态、美元走势以及关键技术位的表现，以便精准把握市场节奏。 美国财长贝森特暗示国际贸易紧张局势有望缓和，此消息激发了股市的乐观情绪，并推动美元反弹至近一周高点。此外美国总统特朗普表示无意解雇美联储 主席鲍威尔，受此影响美元短线大幅上涨，现货黄金则出现急剧下跌。在经历短线大幅上涨后，多头存在获利了结与回调的需求。市场避险情绪有所缓解， 美元指数超跌后反弹，同时黄金日线图技术指标在连续超买后存在修正需求。在多重因素的共同作用下，金价短期内将维持宽幅震荡格局，等待技术指标的 修正。翁老师提醒大家需继续关注美元指数的走势选择。经过此轮避险情绪推动的快速上涨后 ...