国债期货日报 | 2025-10-23 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强力扩张"的格局：前三季度一般公共预算收入 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. fiscal policy** and its implications on **monetary policy** and **debt management**. The focus is on the challenges faced by the U.S. government regarding rising interest payments and their impact on fiscal health and economic sectors sensitive to interest rates. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Challenges**: The U.S. government is experiencing a significant imbalance between spending and revenue, with interest payments consuming a larger portion of the budget compared to Japan and the EU, approximately **13%-14%** of general fiscal spending [2][2][2]. 2. **Rising Interest Payments**: Since 2020, U.S. interest payments have escalated rapidly, projected to reach **twice** the 2020 levels by 2025, with an average debt interest rate of about **3.5%** [5][5][5]. 3. **Debt Management Strategies**: To alleviate fiscal pressure, the U.S. needs to reduce interest payments by **$180 billion** if no deficit growth occurs in FY 2026, or by **$80 billion** to return to 2024 levels [5][5][5]. 4. **Impact of Monetary Policy**: The potential for a **rate cut** after Powell's term in 2026 could lead to a decrease in short-term bond rates, while long-term rates may still rise, complicating the overall debt servicing costs [3][8][8]. 5. **Debt Structure**: The current debt structure shows a high proportion of short-term debt (under one year), which is sensitive to interest rate changes. This strategy was adopted to manage costs during rising interest rates [5][8][8]. 6. **Long-term Debt Sensitivity**: Historical data indicates that short-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate cuts, while long-term bonds show less responsiveness, which could lead to increased overall costs for the government [9][9][9]. Additional Important Content 1. **Quantitative Analysis**: Two scenarios were presented indicating the necessity for significant reductions in interest payments to ease fiscal pressures [4][4][4]. 2. **Debt Refinancing**: The refinancing of maturing debt at lower rates could help reduce future interest costs, particularly for the portion of debt that is due for renewal [6][6][6]. 3. **Market Reactions**: The fiscal challenges have raised concerns in the market regarding the U.S. debt repayment capacity, leading to increased long-term bond yields, which adversely affects sectors like manufacturing and real estate [1][2][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, focusing on the U.S. fiscal and monetary landscape, the implications of rising interest payments, and the strategies for managing debt effectively.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, and M1 at 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing M2-M1 gap [6][8][9] Group 2 - The narrowing of the M2-M1 gap suggests that M1 is growing faster, attributed to a decline in government bond prices, prompting individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments back into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article notes that the capital market's performance in September was lackluster, leading to a decrease in the "deposit migration" phenomenon, as investors were not seeing significant returns [12][13] Group 3 - The article anticipates continued government efforts to stimulate the capital market and address the economic situation, suggesting that the underlying logic for a bull market remains intact [15][19] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, are expected to influence market performance, with a cautious approach recommended until these events unfold [20][21] - The article encourages proactive asset allocation in anticipation of market movements following these critical events [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, and the implications for the Fed's independence and future monetary policy direction [1][2][3]. Group A: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration has intensified its pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding immediate interest rate cuts and criticizing Powell's cautious approach [3][4]. - Following unsuccessful verbal attacks on Powell, Trump shifted focus to personnel changes within the Fed, aiming to reshape its leadership by targeting other board members [3][4][5]. Group B: Changes in Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump's intervention began with the unexpected resignation of Fed Governor Kugar, which opened the door for Trump to nominate his ally, Milan, to fill the vacancy [4]. - The subsequent targeting of Fed Governor Cook, including criminal allegations against him, illustrates Trump's strategy to exert control over the Fed's board [4][5]. - Trump's public categorization of Fed board members into "Trump" and "Biden" camps indicates a clear intent to influence the Fed's decision-making structure [5]. Group C: Federal Reserve's Power Structure - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is primarily conducted by the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Board being the key decision-making body [7][9]. - The Board consists of seven governors, and its decisions significantly influence monetary policy, banking regulation, and financial stability [9][10]. - The FOMC, which includes both Board members and regional Fed presidents, has the authority to set interest rates and conduct open market operations [8][9]. Group D: Potential Policy Changes - If Trump successfully controls the Fed's board, significant policy shifts could occur, including rapid interest rate cuts and expansion of the Fed's balance sheet to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds [15][16]. - Trump's desire for a 3% interest rate cut reflects a broader strategy to stimulate the economy, with expectations of at least 150 basis points of cuts in the near term [16][17]. - The potential for a more accommodative monetary policy could lead to increased financial market activity but may also raise systemic risks in the long term [18][19].

Group 1 - The social financing scale increment in China for the first three quarters of this year reached 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating strong support for economic recovery and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The financing structure has improved, with government and corporate bond financing accounting for 43% of the social financing scale increment, while the proportion of RMB loans to the real economy has decreased to 48%, showing a shift towards more diversified financing channels [1] - Banks play a crucial role in credit issuance and are also major participants in bond investments, holding about 25% of their assets in bonds, with approximately 70% of government bonds and 20% of corporate credit bonds held by banks [1] Group 2 - The total social financing scale in China exceeds 430 trillion yuan, with broad money (M2) at over 330 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial funding capacity to meet the financing needs of the real economy [2] - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by insufficient demand, low inflation, and low interest rates, suggesting that future financial impacts on the real economy will primarily occur through interest rate pathways [2] - There is a need to address structural imbalances in demand, particularly the over-investment and under-consumption issues, which require a shift in fiscal spending from investment-focused to improving livelihoods [2] Group 3 - The redistribution system needs further improvement, with a focus on coordinating initial distribution, redistribution, and third distribution systems, enhancing the regulatory effects of taxes, social security, and transfer payments [3] - The macro policy direction has shifted towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with future fiscal spending expected to prioritize social welfare issues such as elderly care, healthcare, education, and housing security [3] - These measures aim to promote social equity while improving economic circulation, which is beneficial for balancing demand and supply [3]

国家统计局新闻发言人表示，三季度GDP增速回落是多种因素共同作用的结果。尽管经济增速有所回 落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。实现全年预期目标（5%左右）有基础有支撑，但也需要付出艰 苦努力。 二是生产继续强于需求。9月工业增加值同比增长6.5%，与9月中国出口增速8.3%相呼应，其中高技术 制造业同比增长10.3%。9月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，其中信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业同 比增长12.8%，体现出产业转型升级对经济的支撑力度。 供需分化的"温差"也在价格中有所体现。三季度GDP平减指数为-1.1%，相比二季度的-1.3%略有收窄， 还需要通过改革发力、政策给力来着力缩小"温差"。尽管四季度受高基数影响，经济增速或许会面临一 定挑战，但通过政策发力，相信全年能够顺利实现5%的增长目标。 一方面，消费和出口的韧性仍强。四季度社零增速或在高基数等因素的影响下，有所放缓。但值得关注 的是，目前政策正在加大对服务消费的支持力度，且服务消费的韧性更强，预计最终消费对GDP的支撑 或有望维持一定韧性。今年9月，商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出培育 服务消费促进平台、丰富高品质服务 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. The Ministry of Finance announced two measures to support economic growth, including allocating 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits and pre - issuing the 2026 local government debt quota. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with September's economic data showing mixed results. The yield of treasury bond spot bonds mostly weakened, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The domestic economy's third - quarter growth was stable but slightly declined compared to the previous value. Overseas, the market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the Sino - US trade policy shows signs of easing. Fiscal policies are expected to drive effective investment and credit, and monetary policies may become more accommodative. The bond market is gradually stabilizing, and it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy while paying attention to policy trends [2]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.04%, and 0.37% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased, while TL's decreased. T, TF, and TL main contract positions decreased, and TS's increased [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads between different contracts decreased, while the spreads between different - term contracts such as T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net short positions of T, TF, and TS top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of treasury active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield at 1.3950% (down 0.25bp), 3 - year at 1.5100% (down 0.60bp), 5 - year at 1.5800% (down 0.75bp), 7 - year at 1.6825% (down 0.85bp), and 10 - year at 1.7450% (down 0.80bp) [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while the 14 - day rate increased. The Shibor overnight rate decreased, the 7 - day rate increased, and the 14 - day rate increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 189 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 253.8 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - The 2025 Q3 GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a 5.2% year - on - year increase at constant prices. September's social consumer goods retail was 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. The national fixed - asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held from October 21st to 22nd [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the bond market is influenced by factors such as trade tensions and inflation readings, with expectations for continued support from fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed improvement from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with fluctuations in risk sentiment affecting bond yields [2]. - On Monday, bond yields rebounded due to shifting risk sentiment following easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2]. - Tuesday saw a correction in the equity market, leading to a recovery in the bond market as risk appetite shifted [2]. - On Wednesday, inflation data had minimal impact on the bond market, with slight increases in bond yields [3]. - Thursday continued the recovery trend in the bond market, with long-term bond yields declining significantly [3]. Group 2: Credit Market Dynamics - Short-term credit bonds performed better this week, with yields decreasing by up to 6 basis points [4]. - The credit spread for short-term bonds also narrowed, with notable reductions in the spreads for AAA-rated bonds [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Bond Market Recovery - The recovery in the bond market is driven by three main factors: changes in U.S.-China trade relations, lack of inflationary pressure, and the need for supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - The upcoming APEC summit and potential new tariffs are expected to increase market uncertainty, boosting demand for bonds as a safe haven [5]. - Current inflation trends show no signs of recovery, with PPI and CPI data indicating stability but not upward movement, necessitating further policy support [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Insights - Recent fiscal policy updates include the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting effective investment [7]. - The early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026 indicates a proactive approach to fiscal management, with an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year [7]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and the resumption of bond purchases to support fiscal measures [8]. - The central bank's emphasis on detailed implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy suggests readiness for further actions in the fourth quarter [8]. Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current environment indicates limited risk of rising bond yields, with a strong need for favorable interest rates to support fiscal supply, suggesting a continued basis for the bond market's recovery [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures declining across the board and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points, indicating a significant pullback in the long end of the curve [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.37% at 115.300, the 10-year main contract down 0.14% at 108.110, the 5-year main contract down 0.11% at 105.655, and the 2-year main contract down 0.04% at 102.334 [2]. - Interbank yields for major bonds rose, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.918%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.765% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.77 basis points to 3.466% and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.013% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.669% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.5549% for 182 days, 1.7285% for 3 years, and 1.7962% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.79, 2.28, and 2.51 respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.317% and the 7-day rate up by 0.3 basis points to 1.418% [6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September, while real estate development investment fell by 13.9% [7]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted a recent recovery in the bond market due to changes in U.S.-China trade tensions and rising market risk aversion, with expectations for continued monetary policy support [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested that while trade tensions may persist, the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a preference for short-term trading strategies [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The current bond market has investment value, but the trading sentiment should be "halted, not chased." If there is a policy rate cut, the short - end and long - end yields will show different trends, and redemption disturbances may increase [3][10][19]. - The financial data shows marginal improvement. The abnormal fluctuation of non - bank deposits may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions. The growth of residents' medium - and long - term credit is a positive marginal signal [3][11]. - The broad fiscal policy has intensified efforts at the beginning of the fourth quarter, including the launch of new policy - based financial tools and the issuance of local government bonds. This may drive the re - issuance of PSL, and increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [3][4][13]. - A window for monetary easing may open. With the intensification of fiscal policy, the total monetary policy may be loosened, and there are suitable time windows for this [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Policy - **Policy - based Financial Tools**: In late September, a new policy - based financial tool with a total amount of 50 billion yuan was announced. It will be jointly funded by three policy banks and support areas such as "technological innovation, green transformation, consumption upgrade, and foreign trade stability." The historical PSL has been concentratedly issued in three rounds, and this new tool may drive the re - issuance of PSL [13][15]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The Ministry of Finance will allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local areas. The current year's local government debt limit and balance have a revitalization space of about 1.2 trillion yuan. This issuance may increase the bond issuance pressure from late October to November [13][17]. 3.2 Financial Data - **Residents' Medium - and Long - term Credit**: In September, residents' medium - and long - term new loans increased year - on - year, which is a marginal positive signal [11]. - **Non - bank Deposits**: Non - bank deposits declined beyond the seasonal norm, with significantly increased volatility. This may be related to the behavior of deposit investment institutions to reduce the scale of non - bank deposits at the end of the quarter, and institutions such as money funds and wealth management products have increased their investment in short - term fixed deposits [11]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - **Policy Synergy**: With the strengthening of the synergy effect of macro - policies, the linkage between fiscal and monetary policies has increased in recent years. After the broad fiscal policy enters the window of strength, the total monetary policy may be loosened [19]. - **Time Window**: Around important meetings in October and around the Politburo meeting are suitable time windows for monetary easing. The adjustment of the equity market and the decline of the non - manufacturing employment sub - index are also favorable factors [19].