Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is worrying, and the overall trend of oils and fats is downward. Internationally, the US tariff war leads to a poor outlook for US soybean exports, CBOT soybean futures decline, and Brazilian soybean premiums rise. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year. Domestically, the dependence on US soybeans is decreasing, the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic, and soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [1][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro and Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, China announced reciprocal tariffs, raising the tariff on imported US soybeans to 47% [2] - Analysts predict that the global 2024/25 soybean ending inventory will be 122.07 million tons, with a forecast range of 121 - 123 million tons, higher than the USDA's March estimate [2] - In March, the total soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 6.21 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and 1.03 million tons from the same period last year. In early April, the soybean inventory of oil mills was still tight, and the imported soybean arrivals are expected to increase in late April, with the April crushing volume about 6.5 million tons [2] - The market expects that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of March will reach 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. The March crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the previous month, and the export volume is estimated to be 1.022 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific data analysis content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the US tariff war causes the CBOT soybean futures market to decline, and Brazilian soybeans benefit. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year [19] - Domestically, the impact of the tariff war on the supply of imported soybeans is limited, but the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic. Soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. With the influence of soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will maintain a fluctuating and slightly strong pattern [8]. - The short - term supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, lacking its own driving force. The subsequent trend needs further guidance from policies and soybean meal [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not explicitly presented in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is still in the off - season, and the spot market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand [10]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [16][18]. - **Arrival and Inventory**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated and rebounded. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, while the inventory of rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained low [19][21][23]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Rapeseed meal was in a weak and fluctuating state, and the spot price followed the fluctuations, with the basis remaining near par [31][33]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rebounded. The KDJ indicator crossed and rebounded at a low level, and the MACD was in a low - level fluctuation with the green energy narrowing, indicating a short - term end of the adjustment trend [41]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus - **Most Important**: Weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas; Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - **Second - most Important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand; domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement [45]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Futures**: In the short term, it will fluctuate slightly stronger. For the RM2505 contract, it will fluctuate above 2600 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, and the main operation is range - bound trading [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see for the 05 contract [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential resignation of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset due to dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's tariff policies, which he finds absurd [3][5][7] - Basset's comments on the tariffs have drawn criticism, with some analysts suggesting that the administration's approach reflects a lack of understanding of international trade [7][8] - The article highlights the significant market impact of Trump's recent tariff announcements, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing sharp declines, resulting in a market loss of approximately $6.5 trillion over two days [10][30] Group 2 - The article mentions that Trump's tariffs are expected to lead to increased costs for consumers, particularly affecting everyday items and household goods [10][12][16] - Specific examples of price increases due to tariffs are provided, including a 20% tariff on imported mineral water and a 24% tariff on certain food products, which will raise consumer prices [12][14][18] - Various industry representatives express concerns about the new tariffs, indicating that increased costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, affecting sectors such as bakery, floral, and seafood [16][22][24] Group 3 - The article clarifies that Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, denied claims that Buffett supports Trump's tariff policies, labeling such reports as false [25][28][29] - Buffett has previously expressed concerns about the negative implications of punitive tariffs, suggesting they could lead to inflation and harm consumers [29] - Despite the recent market downturn, Berkshire Hathaway's stock has shown resilience, outperforming major indices year-to-date [30]

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 关税加码背后的深层原因 年初至今，美国对他国的进口关税税率不断加码，尽管关税政策朝令夕改，但税率则超乎想象地往上加。如美方近日 公布的所谓"对等关税"方案，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，拟对中国加征 34% 关税，对欧盟、越南、中国 台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、柬埔寨等贸易伙伴征收 20% 到 49% 不等的 关税，对任何贸易伙伴的最低对等税率也为 10% 。 近年来中国对美顺差的占比已下降 来源： Wind ，中泰证券研究所 为此，我国也采取了向原产于美国的所有商品加征 34% 的进口关税，鉴于美方是在今年对中国加征 20% 关税基础 上再加征 34% 的，说明中方加征的关税属于克制的回应，且留有谈判余地。 特朗普再度当选总统之后，他的施政方略围绕着 MAGA ，即对外加征关税以获得 5000 亿美元以上的关税收入，又 能重振美国的制造业；对内通过政府效率部（ DOGE ）来精简机构、裁减公务员以节省开支、提高效率。同时，限制 移民、国内减税等政策可以起到鼓励投资、保护就业的作用。 特朗普任期与历任总统行政 ...

长按即可参与 美股暴跌，特朗普当年损总统那句超狠的话，被挖出来了！ 如果有一天，道琼斯指数单日下跌超过1000点，那么美国现任总统就应该被装进大炮，以极快的速度射向太阳，不允许有任何借口。 美东时间4月3日，美股迎来了2020年疫情熔断以来最惨烈的一天。三大指数全线跳水，毫无反抗之力，被市场的恐慌情绪彻底吞没。截至收盘： ——唐纳德·特朗普，2015年 这已经不知道是多少次，特朗普被自己的回旋镖射中。 回望2016年11月，他首次当选总统时，道指一度恐慌暴跌；2020年，更是以一句"喝消毒水能治新冠"助推史诗级 美股 熔断。 在2025年美东时间4月3日，道指暴跌超1600点，跌幅达3.98%。这一天也是2020美股熔断以来最难熬的一天，华尔街遭受血洗，美股、汇市进入至 暗时刻。 01 纳斯达克指数暴跌5.97% ，创下2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅； 美股暴跌，历史性大崩盘！ 此外，小盘股指罗素2000收跌约6.6%，较2024年11月末所创的最高纪录跌去20%以上，成为首个跌入熊市的美股主要股指。 半导体指数大跌9.88%，创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅。AMD跌8.90%，台积电ADR跌7.64%。 ...

特朗普政府昨晚宣布新一轮的对等关税，成为今天全球瞩目的重磅消息，今晚就说说具体情况以及后续 影响。 这次美国起手就是所有贸易伙伴加税10%，哪怕是极少数几个对美贸易逆差的国家，如新加坡、澳大利 亚，那也不管，先10%关税安排上。 在10%的基础上，根据各个国家对美贸易的顺差比例，再额外征收关税。比如中国顺差比例是67%，那 打对折征收34%的关税，通俗翻译就是外国商品在美国人民身上赚的钱，我美国政府要分一半。 前几年中国大力发展中转贸易，在东南亚、墨西哥开厂生产商品，再卖给美国以躲避关税。不过这一招 以后也没用了，因为这次无差别关税升级面向全球所有国家，像越南（+46%）、泰国（+36%）、印尼 （+32%）这些东盟的国家加税比例甚至比中国还高，没有必要再去那里开厂了。 越南前几年捡漏从中国流出的制造业发了笔小财，这下好日子到头，越南股市今天暴跌6.8%，如丧考 妣。 美国传统意义上的战略盟友，这次也没有获得优待，日本+24%，韩国+25%，欧盟+20%，什么盟不盟 友的，不好使，只要你从美国贸易赚钱了就得给我吐一半出来。 …… 特朗普这么做的目的是什么？ 首先肯定是吸引制造业回流。美国政府觉得资本家为了贪图 ...

从3月表现来看，现货黄金继续今年以来亮眼表现，累计涨幅超过9%，已经连续三个月收涨，且今年一 季度涨幅超18%，创下1986年以来最佳季度表现，主要得益于特朗普政府的关税不确定性以及经济增长 担忧，促使资金涌入黄金避险。 本周，市场最关注的事件当属4·2对等关税日。如果没有预期的那么严重，那么黄金可能会开始回落， 因为高位获利回吐可能会被触发。此外，投资者还需要关注周五4月4日出炉的美国非农就业报告，这将 影响美联储的降息预期。如果就业市场恶化，将会支撑美联储进一步的降息行动，从而影响黄金价格。 技术面来看，日线图显示，14日相对强弱指数(RSI)进入高度超买区域，使得多头保持谨慎。不过，黄 金目前处于上升通道内，支持长期看涨倾向。4小时图显示，在持续大涨之后，技术指标进入超买区 间，或暗示金价短线将迎来技术性调整。 截至3月31日，全球最大的黄金ETFSPDR GoldTrust持仓量为933.38吨，较前一个交易日增加1.44吨。3 月31日，现货黄金飙涨40美元，盘中接连突破3100、3110、3120美元/盎司关口，最高触及31278.26美 元/盎司，继续刷新纪录高位，收盘仍然位于3120关口上方， ...

自特朗普上台以来，他就牢牢占据着世界媒体的目光，先是给墨西哥湾改名，又意图吞并加拿大和格陵 兰岛，虽然很多时候他只是嘴炮先行，但无疑他的言行还是为世界增添了许多不稳定因素，市场避险情 绪因此持续升温，黄金也开始试探3100大关。 随着关税战的全面开打和美国经济衰退风险的上升，黄金后续很可能将迎来更加剧烈的波动，超级行情 即将来袭！此时恰逢领峰贵金属(igoldtg.top/mKzw6b)双倍积分活动限时开启，给力福利助您火力全开， 擒获机遇！ ● 如何获取积分？ 无需登记报名，活动期间交易黄金、白银，每累计达1手即送400积分。其中200原始积分自动到账；200 额外奖励积分， 需登录用户中心手动领取。积分奖励不设上限，限时2倍福利助力交易，交易越多奖励 越多！ ● 积分有什么作用？ 目前其"胡萝卜加大棒"策略初见成效，现代汽车集团随即宣布210亿美元对美投资计划，其中包含58亿 美元的钢铁厂项目，而韩国和英国也计划，在特朗普对等关税出台前，先行降低对美关税，同时也准备 加大对美投资。 只是目前这些举动都只停留在计划中，但是特朗普的关税危险却已实实在在在进行中，因此市场避险情 绪持续高涨，成为了黄金上探310 ...

Core Points - France is actively seeking to avoid a trade war with China, as indicated by a recent phone call from French President Macron's foreign affairs advisor to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, emphasizing the need for dialogue to resolve economic disputes [3][5] - The backdrop of this communication includes previous tensions where the EU imposed unreasonable tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which France had a significant role in instigating [3][5] - The pressure on France to engage with China also stems from domestic business groups urging the government to mitigate escalating trade tensions, particularly in light of potential tariffs from the US [5][7] Economic Context - The EU is currently facing economic pressures not only from internal disputes but also from external threats, particularly from the US regarding tariffs, prompting France to take a proactive stance in its trade relations with China [5][7] - The French cognac industry has been particularly vocal in urging the government to negotiate with China to prevent further economic fallout from trade disputes [5] Geopolitical Implications - The conversation between France and China also touched upon the ongoing situation in Ukraine, with both parties expressing a desire for a fair and sustainable peace agreement, highlighting a shared interest in regional stability [5][7] - The current geopolitical landscape, characterized by the US's direct negotiations with Russia, has left Europe feeling sidelined, which may influence its future diplomatic strategies [7][9]

外媒：比利时外交大臣称，欧盟应该就特朗普发起 的关税战采取"以牙还牙"策略 【环球网报道】据美国"政治新闻网"欧洲版24日报道，比利时外交大臣马克西姆·普雷沃称，实质上， 欧盟在应对美国总统特朗普发起的关税战时应采取"以牙还牙"策略。 报道说，普雷沃对"政治新闻网"称，美国领导人所发表贬损欧盟的言论以及所采取有关措施，"必须促 使我们作出同等反应"，欧盟必须证明，欧盟市场应得到与特朗普至今所采取做法不同的待遇。 普雷沃还称，欧盟在回应特朗普有关做法时不能放弃任何可能性，包括打击华盛顿的痛处。他还称，数 字领域属于"有可能最敏感且产生影响"的领域，"我更赞成将这方面措施作为一系列反击措施的一部 分"，此外，使用欧盟从未使用过的反胁迫手段也应该是一种选择。 "这一战，尤其是关税战，就像是被扔出去的回旋镖。" 普雷沃称，那些采取关税措施的人"忘记了（回 旋镖）会飞回来"。 据美国"政治新闻网"欧洲版等媒体报道，3月12日起，美国最新钢铝关税措施生效，包括欧盟国家在内 的美国多个贸易伙伴未获得豁免。欧盟委员会12日发布公报说，因美国近期对从欧盟进口的钢铝产品征 收不合理关税，欧盟决定对价值260亿欧元的美国商品征收反 ...