新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-30 氧化铝盘面价格相对现货较为低估 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20380元/吨，较上一交易日上涨30元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨10元/吨至120元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20310元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨10元/吨至40元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20230元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至-40元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-05-29日沪铝主力合约开于20115元/吨，收于20200元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨50元/ 吨，涨幅0.25%，最高价达20245元/吨，最低价达到20045元/吨。全天交易日成交168323手，较上一交易日增 加34429手，全天交易日持仓207900手，较上一交易日增加4339手。 库存方面，截止2025-05-29，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存51.1万吨。截止2025-05-29，LME铝库存375075 吨，较前一交易日减少2250吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-05-29 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3290元/吨，山东价格录得3 ...

纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存14.30万吨（+1.50万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费155美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费138美元/吨（-6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差101.7美元/吨（+10.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-60元/吨（-25 元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差564元/吨（-83元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润475元/吨（+59元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存74600吨（+22500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存51600吨（+14700吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率72.0%（+2.7%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润138元/吨（-174元/吨），PS生产利润-562元/吨（-24元/吨），ABS生产利润73元/吨（-81 元/吨）。EPS开工率58.67%（-0.85%），PS开工率61.80%（+2.10%），ABS开工率62.32%（+1.45%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯检修峰值已过，开工逐步回升，苯乙烯港口库存首周见底回升，关注后续累库兑现速率；流动性方面关注 贸易商补空节奏。ps及abs生产利润仍等待改善。上游原料方面， ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-30 供应压力有限，现货持稳 市场分析 1、5月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2507合约下午收盘价3514元/吨，较昨日上涨0.51%；持仓113112手， 环比减少8653手，成交298546手，环比上涨8029手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3780—4086元/吨；山东，3500—3800元/吨；华南，3410—3450元/吨； 华东，3500—3590元/吨。 昨日东北以及山东市场价格均出现上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。临近月底，部分品牌的沥青当月合 同执行已接近尾声，沥青市场现货流通量持续减少，对现货端存在支撑。就盘面而言，近期整体维持震荡运行， 下方存在支撑，但上行驱动不足，且油价再度下跌将对期货端形成拖累。就沥青自身基本面来看，目前市场供应 增量有限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，市场压力有限。但另一方面，消费端改善幅度仍不足，尤其降雨 天气增加将限制项目施工及终端需求，并制约市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢低多BU2507-2509价差（正套） 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The US court halted Trump's tariffs, causing EG to stop falling and rebound. The EG main contract closed at 4359 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton, +1.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4496 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton, +0.45% from the previous trading day) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -27 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 147 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data on Mondays, MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 68.7 tons (down 5.6 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 7.6 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 9.2 tons [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, several large plants like Satellite still have maintenance plans, so the domestic EG load will remain low in the short term. The polyester load has declined recently but is still at a high level. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, leading to concentrated shipments of US orders. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and with the high polyester load, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol is significant. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts and macro - news changes [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Several large plants like Satellite have maintenance plans, the liquidity is tightened due to the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume provides short - term price support. For inter - period trading, a long - near and short - far spread strategy is recommended, and there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4359 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton, +1.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4496 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton, +0.45% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 151 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -27 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 147 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton). Several large plants like Satellite still have maintenance plans, so the domestic EG load will remain low in the short term [1][2]. 3. International Spread - No specific data or analysis on international spread is provided in the content other than the mention of the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. 4. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The polyester load has declined recently but is still at a high level. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, leading to concentrated shipments of US orders [2]. 5. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 68.7 tons (down 5.6 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 7.6 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 9.2 tons. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and with the high polyester load, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol is significant [1][2].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1406元/吨，缓慢下降 趋势；纯碱周产量68.51万吨，环比+3.21%；纯碱厂家总库存 162.43万吨，环比下降3.13%；浮法玻璃开工率76.01%，周度 +0.68%；全国浮法玻璃均价1233元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6766.2万重箱，环比下降0.16%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，下游仍维持刚需，逢 低采买为主。国内纯碱市场走势弱稳，下游企业采购谨慎，低 价按需为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力1200一 线 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

豆粕生猪：进口成本下降 豆粕小幅回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 第二郎 JIDGHI FITUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 3004 | 3013 | -9.00 | -0.30% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2705 | 2710 | -5.00 | -0.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2962 | 2961 | 1.00 | 0.03% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2352 | 2347 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 5月29日 ...

关税扰动市场反弹,但偏弱结构未改 行情日评: 今日市场受短期关税消息扰动在连续下跌后出现情绪修复,多数 品种出现反弹。关税是否真的就此取消?如何理解昨晚"美国国际贸 易法院(CIT)裁定特朗普 4 月 2 日对等关税政策越权且违法"这一 事件。 短期结构 品种 中期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 震荡 空单持有 偏空 空单持有 偏空 EB 偏空 空单止损 農汤 PX 空单止损 偏空 震荡 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 偏空 偏空 空单持有 塑料 甲醇 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EG 寻反抽结束做空机会 橡胶 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 板块观点汇总 我们认为短期有情绪利好扰动(昨晚到今天的反弹,盘面已反应), 但实际判决未必能执行,关税仍难被取消。主要原因是 CIT 裁定后虽 然理论上海关需要在 1-3 天内停止征税,但 CIT 作为联邦法院的裁决 并非终局,特朗普政府有权向上诉至联邦巡回上诉法院(CAFC)法院 提出异议,并申请暂缓执行(目前已上诉),如果 CAFC 维持 CIT 判 决,特朗普政府可向最高法院申请调卷令,目前 ...

期货热点追踪 马棕油期货五连涨，出口需求旺盛，看涨情绪能否持续？市场预期供需如何变化？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral. Arbitrage: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [5] Core View - The spot price of aluminum is firm, but the consumption sustainability may change in June, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may face difficulties. The alumina spot price shows signs of loosening, and the social inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound soon [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On May 28, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,280 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton [1] - **Aluminum Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,165 yuan/ton, closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 133,894 lots and an open interest of 203,561 lots [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 534,000 tons; as of May 28, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 377,325 tons, down 4,250 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On May 28, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,275 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - **Alumina Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,028 yuan/ton, closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1,043,328 lots and an open interest of 371,308 lots [2] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline rapidly, and the spot premium is firm. The supply side has no negative factors, but the consumption sustainability may change in June. The aluminum rod and aluminum plate strip foil production have declined month-on-month, and the domestic market is about to enter the traditional consumption off-season. The upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may face difficulties, and the risk of cost collapse needs to be vigilant [3] - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina spot has transactions in Guangxi, Shandong, and Henan. The probability of a later bauxite ban in Guinea is low, and the short-term supply is sufficient. The industry profit has been significantly repaired, and the probability of the resumption of production of previously overhauled and reduced production projects is high. It is expected that the social inventory will soon stop falling and rebound [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [5] - **Arbitrage**: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [5]