Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Wine - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, driven by new marketing strategies and upcoming sales events [15][22] Consumer Goods - The report recommends focusing on four main themes: cost control, new consumption logic, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - Specific companies to watch include Ximai Foods, Li Ziyuan, and Sanhua Foods, among others [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products such as Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - In the white liquor sector, Moutai and Fenjiu are highlighted for their strong alpha and benefits from market concentration [5][22]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening in June, with all three major indices rising and over 3,300 stocks in the market showing gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.48% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.16 trillion yuan [1] Key Sectors - The sectors that performed well included the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone, new consumption, football concepts, precious metals, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit and reaching a new high [12] Notable Stocks - Junyao Health, known as the "first stock of room temperature lactic acid bacteria," achieved a remarkable performance with six consecutive trading days of gains, including a daily limit increase [2][5] - The stock's trading volume exceeded 800 million yuan [2] - Innovative drug stocks remained active, with Shutaishen hitting the daily limit and a cumulative increase of 188.04% since May 20 [7][9] Company Performance - Junyao Health reported a production volume of approximately 85.99 million liters for probiotic products in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.54%, while sales volume decreased by 1.41% to about 83.99 million liters [5] - The sales revenue for probiotic products was approximately 595 million yuan, down 2.71% year-on-year [5] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector is gaining attention, with the approval of 11 new innovative drugs by the National Medical Products Administration [10] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and international licensing agreements, enhancing growth prospects for related companies [10] - Shutaishen's subsidiary is under scrutiny for its drug application, which may impact future evaluations [9] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment is positive, with a focus on growth sectors such as technology and consumer-driven industries, alongside stable sectors like banking [15]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with all three major indices closing in the green, driven by significant gains in new consumption concept stocks, IP economy, beauty, and sports sectors [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.1414 trillion, an increase of 22 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,400 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The new consumption sector saw a strong increase, particularly with the IP economy concept stocks gaining traction. The Labubu brand's overseas performance exceeded expectations, and the opening of the first popop store in Shanghai on May 30 further boosted interest [2] - The sports concept stocks performed well, with the Jiangsu Province city football league gaining popularity and driving cultural tourism consumption [2] - The innovative drug sector maintained its strength, influenced by a correction in the Hong Kong market and significant announcements from multinational pharmaceutical companies, including a licensing agreement worth up to 11.1 billion USD for a new cancer drug [2] Banking Sector - Bank stocks showed renewed strength, supported by the trend of dividend stocks and adjustments to major indices by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index, which may lead to capital inflows [3] - Insurance capital continues to show interest in bank stocks, maintaining market momentum [3]

保健品之新：新品类 悦己特征突出，美容养颜类高景气。颜值经济驱动下，美容养颜、身材管理、运动健身、护发固发此类 与"颜值经济"相关的功效品类遥遥领先，在抖音TOP20的商品中，占据超49%的市场份额，同时护肝、 润喉赛道增速亮眼，三高心血管健康、骨骼健康市场体量稳固。营养健康食品零食化趋势显著，年轻消 费者更倾向即食软糖、冲泡粉剂等形态，非蓝帽子产品接受度提升，功能性食品销量占比持续增长。抗 衰老赛道扩容加速，麦角硫因因超强抗氧化能力成为出圈爆点，跨境品牌充分受益。 保健品之新：新群体 消费群体年轻化与下沉化趋势明显，女性、Z世代及宠物主成为核心增量人群，其中31-40岁消费者占比 最高，24-30岁增速最快，下沉市场消费者占比提升，低线城市成为高潜用户。 中信建投（601066）发布研报称，国内保健品市场正经历结构性变革，渠道、品类与消费群体呈现显著 分化，新消费特征正在驱动行业价值重估。线上渠道凭借高渗透率与灵活性持续扩张，短视频、跨境电 商及私域平台成为增长引擎，而传统药店受政策与客流影响持续萎缩。消费群体年轻化与下沉化趋势明 显，女性、Z世代及宠物主成为核心增量人群。保健品公司通过跨境布局、产品创新及 ...

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, potentially suppressing market sentiment in the short term, but the market is gradually becoming desensitized to tariff issues [1] - In April, industrial enterprise profits improved, driven by the effective implementation of "new" consumption incentive policies, which boosted downstream consumption and supported the midstream equipment manufacturing sector [1][2] - The manufacturing PMI showed overall recovery in May, with a rebound in export orders, highlighting the resilience of China's economic fundamentals, which will provide bottom support for the market [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. has issued renewed tariff threats, with recent announcements indicating an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, suggesting the Trump administration is preparing a "Plan B" for tariffs [1] - Despite the tariff challenges, new momentum industries are experiencing accelerated profit growth, significantly contributing to the economy [2] - June is a critical month for A-share dividends, with a focus on tracking capital flows and changes in industry prosperity to identify high-dividend investment opportunities [2] Group 3 - The emphasis on internal circulation is crucial, with a focus on service consumption and new consumption as important new drivers of economic growth [3] - External uncertainties are accelerating the internal circulation, with policies aimed at expanding and enhancing consumption quality [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Beverage and Low-Alcohol Drinks - The beverage industry is expected to see single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth in 2024, with tea and functional drinks leading the way while carbonated drinks experience slowed growth [1][5] - Raw material cost advantages are becoming apparent, leading to a 1-2 percentage point increase in industry gross margins and a 1 percentage point increase in profit margins, with an improved competitive landscape [1][5] Company-Specific Insights Chengde Lululemon - Chengde Lululemon has a stable foundation with steady demand in the catering channel and potential for expansion in southern markets [1] - The company plans to invest 100 million in advertising for its health water product over the next two years and is adding PET production lines, expecting a profit of 700 million from its main business and 200-300 million from health water sales [1][18] - The stock is currently valued at 15 times earnings, lower than the industry average of 20 times, indicating potential for growth [18] Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng's energy drink business has maintained over 20% growth, with a target to surpass Huabin Red Bull by 2026 [1][10] - Rapid growth in water products is expected to generate 1.5 billion in revenue in 2024, with juice tea products achieving over 100 million in monthly sales as of May [1][11] - Revenue growth is projected at 35% and profit growth at 43% for 2025, with a current PE ratio of 35 times [15] Liziyuan - Liziyuan is in a low base period for Q2, with new vitamin water products contributing to growth, and a projected 10% decrease in costs for 2025 [1][7] - The company aims for 100 million in revenue from vitamin water in 2025, with an overall revenue growth forecast of 8% and profit growth of 15% [9] Bairun Co. - Bairun has seen nearly double-digit declines in April and May, leading to a cancellation of credit policies for distributors and a focus on inventory digestion [1][19] - The company plans to launch new products in its RTD series and has set a revenue target of 500 million for its whiskey business [19][20] Kuaijishan - Kuaijishan has shifted to a deep distribution model, with mid-to-high-end products now making up 67% of sales and gross margins increasing to 52% [3][23] - The company has seen significant growth in its Lanting series and 1,743 products, with sales targets set for 2025 [23][24] Xiangpiaopiao - Xiangpiaopiao is in a year of adjustment, focusing on inventory consumption in its brewing business while promoting Miko juice tea in its ready-to-drink segment [3][32] - The company plans to expand into new channels such as dining and snacks, with Miko juice tea achieving 800 million in revenue in 2024 [32][37] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The beverage industry is expected to continue benefiting from new product launches and seasonal demand peaks, particularly during promotional events like 618 [2] - Companies are focusing on cost control and channel expansion, with a notable shift towards online sales and deep distribution strategies [29][36] - The overall sentiment in the beverage sector remains optimistic, with several companies poised for growth despite current high valuations [4][31]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in China, which is expected to provide a bottom support for the market despite short-term tariff concerns [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery in May, with improved export orders and strong performance in new consumption and consumer goods [1] - The focus for investment should be on sectors that benefit from domestic demand, including beauty care, agriculture, defense, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and retail [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a limited adjustment space due to a lack of significant external volatility and ongoing domestic policy support [2] - Key investment themes include high-margin assets, technology sector opportunities, and consumer sectors boosted by policy incentives [2] - The article suggests that the technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with short-term attention on undervalued segments [2] Group 3 - A-share market is currently insulated from macroeconomic disturbances, with policies in place to manage risks and support market stability [3] - The technology sector is expected to be a key driver for a structural bull market in the medium term, despite short-term adjustments [3] - There is a continued focus on sectors like pharmaceuticals and precious metals, as well as opportunities in the automotive supply chain [3] Group 4 - Three potential triggers could help A-shares escape the current narrow trading range: developments in US-China relations, increased fiscal spending, and advancements in the technology sector [4] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining strong financing levels in local and national debt to support market activity [4] - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is seen as having the potential for a rebound after recent adjustments [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a period of index fluctuation, with a focus on quality indices due to stable economic fundamentals [5] - The article notes that the current funding environment is less favorable for high-concentration small-cap stocks, suggesting a preference for larger, quality stocks [5] - Overall, the market is likely to remain in a state of fluctuation, with a bias towards larger, more stable investments [5] Group 6 - The technology growth style is now considered to be at a favorable entry point after recent adjustments, with a focus on sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The article indicates that the market's trading characteristics are heavily influenced by external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs [6] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of trading indicators in navigating the current market environment [6] Group 7 - The article suggests that external risks have lessened but warns of potential volatility from US policy changes [7] - Domestic policies are expected to continue supporting the market, with consumption remaining a key driver of economic recovery [7] - Investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation funds, with a defensive market style anticipated [7] Group 8 - The market is currently in a repair phase, with trading sentiment affected by fluctuating US tariff policies and slow trade negotiations [8] - The article highlights the growing influence of long-term capital and regulatory support in stabilizing the A-share market [8] - Recommended sectors for investment include precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, and AI applications [8] Group 9 - Recent high-frequency economic data indicates a weakening trend, which may limit stock market gains [9] - The article notes that certain commodity prices have fallen below last year's levels, and there is a decline in retail financing activity [9] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by policy support and changes in the AI and new consumption sectors [9] Group 10 - The article discusses the potential for a new "East rises, West falls" trading strategy, driven by a weakening dollar and favorable conditions for non-US assets [10] - It emphasizes that the technology growth sector, particularly AI and related innovations, will be a key focus for upcoming trading opportunities [10] - The article suggests that the upcoming months will see significant developments in technology sectors, which could catalyze market movements [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines during the past week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.4% as the Dragon Boat Festival holiday comes to an end [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. Trade Representative's office has extended the exemption period for certain tariffs under Section 301 against China, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, now extended to August 31, 2025 [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to U.S. claims of violations regarding the Geneva trade talks, emphasizing that China has adhered to the agreements made and criticized the U.S. for introducing discriminatory measures against China [5][6] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May stands at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [7] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued a statement opposing the recent price wars among car manufacturers, highlighting that such competition negatively impacts industry profitability and sustainability [9][11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to strengthen regulations against "involution" in the automotive sector to maintain fair competition [10] Group 5: Analyst Insights - Analysts from various firms provided insights on the market outlook, with a focus on the resilience of domestic demand and the potential for upward movement in the market due to easing tariff tensions and improving economic indicators [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 2.82% this week, but trading volume significantly decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 25.44 billion yuan, down 29.23% week-on-week [6][11][19] - Market focus shifted from new consumption to the broader technology sector, with strong performances in innovative pharmaceuticals (Nuo Si Lan De +27.37%) and autonomous driving (Xin An Jie +15.17%, Tong Li Co. +11.27%, Hao Miao Technology +11.10%) [6][11][19] - The North Exchange 50 constituent stock adjustment announcement was released, with Tong Hui Electronics and Yi Nuo Wei added to the index, effective June 16 [6][11][12] Group 2 - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1408.68 points, reflecting a 2.82% increase [20] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is 88.80 times, with a median of 50.97 times; the average PE for the ChiNext is 75.13 times, with a median of 34.77 times [25][31] - The trading volume for the North Exchange was 6.347 billion shares this week, a decrease of 24.31% week-on-week, with a total trading value of 127.199 billion yuan, down 29.23% [26][29] Group 3 - This week, there were no new IPOs on the North Exchange; as of May 30, 2025, there are 266 companies listed [33] - The North Exchange saw 10 new companies listed and 3 delisted this week, with a total of 6083 companies on the New Third Board [50][51] - The North Exchange's financing balance was 5.538 billion yuan, an increase of 0.08 billion yuan from the previous week [29]