Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场成交依然偏淡 铅价弱势运行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-24，LME铅现货升水为-22.41美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17075元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 17150元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至17075元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至17075元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-24，沪铅主力合约开于17195元/吨，收于17135元/吨，较前一交易日变化-30元/吨，全天交易日 成交38420手，较前一交易日变化-1713手，全天交易日持仓52888手，手较前一交易日变化-2218手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17230元/吨，最低点达到17115元/吨。夜盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a narrow - range oscillation with limited downward space. The supply is abundant due to new capacity coming into production, while downstream demand is weak. However, the export window is open, and export orders are increasing, but PVC product exports may be affected by the ongoing anti - dumping investigation in India [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases as device maintenance resumes, and the demand from the alumina side is weak. There is a risk of demand weakening in the non - aluminum sector. The caustic soda spot price in the next two months may be supported by the expected new alumina plants in Guangxi, and cost support still exists [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4496 yuan/ton (+40), the East China basis is - 56 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China basis is 4 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4440 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4500 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 848 yuan/ton (-28), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 516 yuan/ton (-25), and the PVC export profit is 12.9 US dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.5 tons (-0.7), the social PVC inventory is 52.7 tons (-0.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.15% (+0.58%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.31% (+1.18%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 77.48% (+0.77%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.6 tons (-2.3) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2241 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 134 yuan/ton (-68) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 760 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1230 yuan/ton (-20) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (-63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 753.5 yuan/ton (+16.7), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 143.47 yuan/ton (-52.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 591.02 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 42.76 tons (+2.54), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.09 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina operating rate is 85.46% (+0.09%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 66.55% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 90.09% (+0.59%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the downward space is limited. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises are considering production cuts due to low prices. New capacity is gradually put into production, and the supply is abundant. The downstream operating rate decreases slightly, with general market purchasing sentiment. The high - level futures warehouse receipts suppress the futures price. The export window is open, but the export of PVC products may be affected by the anti - dumping investigation [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases as device maintenance resumes, and the demand from the alumina side is weak, with overall inventory accumulation. The non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid needs and may weaken in the future. The expected new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and cost support still exists [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Narrow - range oscillation with limited downward space. - **Inter - delivery**: Wait - and - see. - **Inter - commodity**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait - and - see. - **Inter - delivery**: Go long on the SH12 contract and short on the SH01 contract when the price difference is low. - **Inter - commodity**: None [5].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-25 成本端弱势运行，市场震荡筑底 市场分析 1、11月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3060元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨25元/吨，涨幅 0.82%；持仓161041手，环比下跌4997手，成交226825手，环比上涨6569手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3520元/吨；华南，3060—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 原油端震荡下跌，沥青成本端支撑偏弱，但在价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号开始出现。现货方面，昨日西北、 华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格相对稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。具体来看，在炼厂开工 率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不 过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已 有所缓解，但底部反弹仍需要更多的刺激因素。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号夯实 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - In the pig industry, future supply will increase, especially with concentrated slaughtering in December. The supply-demand pattern of loose supply will continue due to supply growth outpacing consumption [2] - In the egg industry, current consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is slowly decreasing, the short - term oversupply situation is hard to change, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 11.40 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on November 24: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.70, up 0.33 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.85, up 0.39 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 66.43 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; mutton was 62.76 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.35 yuan/kg, up 1.2%; white - striped chicken was 17.50 yuan/kg, down 0.4% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3210 yuan/500 kilograms, up 26 yuan (+0.82%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.73 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan [3] - Inventory: On November 24, the national production - link inventory was 1.16 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, down 0.04 days (-2.88%) [3] Market Analysis Pig - Future supply will increase, especially with concentrated slaughtering of retail farmers and secondary fattening pigs in December. Although demand is growing, the supply growth rate is higher than the consumption rate, so the loose supply pattern will continue [2] Egg - Current consumption demand is at a normal low level. Although temperature drop is conducive to egg storage and there is some replenishment by supermarkets and e - commerce, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term oversupply situation is hard to change [4] Strategy Pig - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg - Cautiously bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news, with a low valuation. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. The polysilicon futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of (-90) yuan/ton (-1.00%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 262,676 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 41,524 lots, a change of -854 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - In terms of exports, in October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 36% and a year - on - year decrease of 31%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 606,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In terms of imports, the cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67%. The significant month - on - month decrease in exports in October was mainly due to export policy, with some export orders shipped in September and new orders in October also affected [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (100) yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market continued to rise, and the price center shifted further upward. The current quoted price range was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was stable at 13,000 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted prices were concentrated at 13,200 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price decreased slightly. After the production reduction in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. Currently, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates mainly due to overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low. If there is policy promotion, the futures price may have room to rise [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. It opened at 53,600 yuan/ton and closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.15% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 128,427 (126,266 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 187,876 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.63%, the weekly polysilicon output was 27,100.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.11%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.78 GW, a month - on - month change of - 2.59% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (-0.06) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 (-0.02) yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. The component production plan in November continued to decline as expected. An accident occurred in a component enterprise in East China over the weekend, which was expected to affect part of the component output [6]. Strategy - Both the supply and demand sides of polysilicon weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The performance of the consumption side was average. Currently, the futures price was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. The policies were still being promoted, and the futures price fluctuated greatly. Participants should pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performance was average, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate mainly [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [8]. - Cross - variety: None [8]. - Spot - futures: None [8]. - Options: None [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Do not chase high prices in the short term; recommend closing long positions, shorting PXN on rallies, and going long MEG while shorting PX [1][6] - PTA: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices; recommend closing long positions [1][7] - MEG: Supply - demand pattern improves, reduce short positions; recommend going long MEG while shorting PX and taking profit on short and reverse - spread positions [1][7] 2) Core Viewpoints - PX: Although the PX - naphtha spread has improved and the profit margin of integrated producers is good, the domestic and Asian PX operating rates have increased. After the PXN reaches a high level and market hype factors are digested, the upward momentum of the short - term unilateral price weakens [3][6] - PTA: The PTA operating rate continues to decline, and the polyester device has a certain demand for it, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. However, the recent surge in the number of warehouse receipts indicates a weak supply - demand pattern and limited upward momentum [7] - MEG: Multiple MEG devices have reduced their loads or stopped production, and the supply is expected to shrink. The polyester device has a high operating rate, and the inventory structure is expected to reverse [7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: On November 24, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6772, 4680, 3884, 6242, and 447.9 respectively, with daily increases of 0.33%, 0.30%, 2.00%, 1.30%, and 0.11% [2] - **Spot Data**: On November 24, the spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 825.67 dollars/ton, 4625 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, 562.62 dollars/ton, and 63.66 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Processing Fee Data**: On November 24, the PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 261.8 dollars/ton, 195.49 yuan/ton, 203.75 yuan/ton, 57.31 yuan/ton, and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively [2] Market Dynamics - PX: Asian PX prices rose on November 24, with CFR Unv1/China at 825.67 dollars/ton, and the PX - naphtha spread continued to improve. Market participants are generally optimistic about the PX outlook in the first half of 2026 [2][4] - Naphtha: On November 24, the C + F Japan naphtha index rose by 75 cents/ton to 562.625 dollars/ton [3] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon [5] - MEG: On November 24, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 732,000 tons, remaining flat compared with the previous period [5] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak over the weekend and on November 24, and the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on November 24 were average [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: 1 (slightly strong) [6] Operating Rates - PX: The domestic PX operating rate is 89.5% (+2.7%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%) [6] - PTA: The PTA operating rate has dropped to 72% (-3.7%) [7] - MEG: The coal - based MEG operating rate has dropped from 83% to 65%, and the domestic weekly supply of ethylene glycol is about 405,000 tons [7][8] - Polyester: The polyester device operating rate is maintained at around 91.3% [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance of European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage period may be over, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, and the port inventory has further increased, suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream开工率 remains low, with a significant increase in phenol开工率 but a decline in aniline and adipic acid开工率, and styrene is still in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, the port inventory has not continued to decline, and the arrival volume has increased rhythmically. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress at the end of the month and whether the maintenance period will be further extended. Downstream开工率 is still low, with EPS开工率 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工率 rising slightly at a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [2]. - The strategy includes: no unilateral operation; for basis and inter - period, conduct long - short spread trading on EB2512 - EB2601 when the price difference is low; for cross - variety, widen the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 when the price difference is low [2]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The basis and inter - period spread data of pure benzene and EB are presented through figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [6][10][16]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - The production profits and internal and external spreads of pure benzene and styrene are analyzed, including figures like naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, and styrene non - integrated device production profits [18][20][28]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - The inventory and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene are shown, such as pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, and styrene operating rate [34][39][40]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of styrene downstream products are presented, including EPS, PS, and ABS operating rates and production profits [44][45][50]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products are analyzed, including caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid operating rates and production profits, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, and PC [53][61][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [1]. - For PX, the PXN was $262 per ton (a $2.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With the speculation on the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America and the lifting of India's BIS, the PXN has widened. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of some plants [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 49 yuan per ton (a 14 - yuan - per - ton increase from the previous period). PTA spot processing fee is 197 yuan per ton (a 9 - yuan - per - ton increase), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 270 yuan per ton (a 1 - yuan - per - ton increase). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. With support from the upstream of polyester load, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation is small, and the basis has rebounded. But as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. In the long - term, after the end of the centralized capacity - release period, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly, and the load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply. The raw material price rebound has led to concentrated restocking, and the sales of filament yarn have increased significantly, with inventory reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventory is low, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 135 yuan per ton (a 20 - yuan - per - ton decrease from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuates with raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the price low, but it is difficult to raise prices. As demand orders weaken marginally, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 444 yuan per ton (a 3 - yuan - per - ton decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers generally continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and the 05 contract should be focused on in the long - term. For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level, and PXN is supported by polyester production, but its rebound space is limited. For TA, there are many maintenance activities in the near - term, and the inventory accumulation pressure is small, but it will gradually increase as demand weakens. The 01 contract's upside is limited, while the long - term outlook is better. For PF, the load is high, factory inventory is low, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips change little, and the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East - China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [7][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve the toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][61] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price difference, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [73][82][86] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East - China water - bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [90][92][102]