化工日报 | 2025-05-29 聚酯追加减产，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4311元/吨（较前一交易日变动-76元/吨，幅度-1.73%），EG华东市场现货价 4476元/吨（较前一交易日变动-40元/吨，幅度-0.89%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）144元/吨（环比-4元/ 吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-21美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为187元/吨（环比-29 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为68.7万吨（环比-5.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.2万吨（环比-5.2万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.6万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数9.2万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划，短期国内EG负荷维持低位；需求端，近端聚酯 负荷有所回落，但整体仍处于高位，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降，美国订单集中发货；6月上旬之前外轮到 货偏少，聚酯高负荷支撑下乙二醇去库幅度较大，持续 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-29 现货流通减少，供应端支撑偏强 市场分析 1、5月28日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2507合约下午收盘价3481元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌32元/吨，跌幅 0.91%；持仓121765手，环比下降7781手，成交243540手，环比下跌46977手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3750—4086元/吨；山东，3490—3800元/吨；华南，3410—3450元/吨； 华东，3500—3590元/吨。 昨日华北以及山东市场价格均出现上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需两弱 格局延续，临近月底，现货流通量持续减少，国内沥青均价延续涨势。盘面维持震荡运行，下方存在支撑，但上 行驱动不足。具体来看，目前炼厂开工率与库存均处于低位，供应端支撑偏强。但另一方面，消费端改善幅度仍 不足，尤其降雨天气增加将限制项目施工及终端需求，并制约市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢低多BU2507-2509价差（正套） 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 202 ...

供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9000-9400 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7900-8000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7900-8000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 四川、上海、西北地区硅价也个别走低。新疆地区今日硅价暂稳。，97硅价格同样走低，采购意愿有所好转。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11400-11600（0）元/吨。据SMM了解，华北一单体企业计划6月3日起开 始全线停车检修，检修周期为15天左右。 策略 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-29 减仓引发盘面扰动，关注持仓变动风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-28，工业硅期货价格下跌后有所反弹，主力合约2507开于7460元/吨，最后收于7340元/吨，较前一日结算 变化（-190）元/吨，变化（-2.52）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓226069手，2025-05-28仓单总数为64286手， 较前一日变化-340手。 综合来看，在供应预期增加和需求低迷的情况下，叠加成本支撑减弱，行业库存高企及仓单较多，工业硅的基本 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，现货基差走强。本周及下周主港货主流在 09+185成交，宁波货在09+178附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4835~4925附近。下周仓单在09+180有成交，6月中上仓单在 09+190有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+184。中性 2、基差：现货4865，09合约基差195，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比减少0.13天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期： ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The terminal downstream demand for polyolefins has entered the traditional off - season, with limited market demand, general restocking enthusiasm, mainly rigid - demand procurement, and a cold market trading atmosphere. The supply side continues to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly improved. Currently, the number of PE inventory maintenance devices has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been depleted. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have increased slightly [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics for single - side trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton (- 35), the PP main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (- 3), the LL North China spot was 7080 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot was 7200 yuan/ton (- 50), the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+ 0), the LL North China basis was 108 yuan/ton (- 15), the LL East China basis was 228 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PP East China basis was 167 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate was 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 533.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), the PP oil - based production profit was 103.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 363.1 yuan/ton (- 91.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 213.2 yuan/ton (- 64.7), the PP import profit was - 619.4 yuan/ton (- 85.1), and the PP export profit was 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 10.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No relevant data presented in the provided content

液化石油气日报 | 2025-05-29 供应充裕，需求改善有限 市场分析 1、\t5月28日地区价格：山东市场，4470—4550；东北市场，4100—4160；华北市场，4500—4580；华东市场， 4400—4670；沿江市场，4700—4980；西北市场，4400—4550；华南市场，4748—4880。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年6月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷611美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷563美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4835元/吨，涨16元/吨，丁烷4455元/吨，涨16元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年6月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷615美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷566美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4866元/吨，涨23元/吨，丁烷4479元/吨，涨16元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 现货方面，山东、华北、沿江西北区域小涨，其余区域主流维稳，整体氛围温和，成交平平，卖方库存无忧。供 ...

Variety Views - On May 28, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31% to 1985.38. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.01 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3836.24, down 3.16 [1]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1339.7 yuan, down 25.8 [2]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coking coal remained weak, closing at 780.0 yuan, down 17.5 [3]. - Affected by concerns about increased exports from India and waiting for sugar production data from Brazil, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract tumbled on May 28. India's monsoon rainfall in 2025 is expected to be 106% of the long - term average [4]. - With the start of rubber tapping in major producing countries and concerns about tire demand, the spot price in Southeast Asia dropped significantly. The Shanghai rubber futures fell sharply on May 28 [5]. - On May 28, palm oil rebounded slightly within the range and then fell back. The reference price of crude palm oil in Indonesia for June was lowered to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff was reduced to $52 per ton [7]. - On May 28, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The planting rate of US soybeans as of May 25 was 76%. The domestic soybean meal futures closed up 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose [8]. - On May 28, the hog futures fluctuated at the bottom. The market is in a state of loose supply in the long - term, and the futures price is bearish [9]. - The Shanghai copper futures showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable. The price is supported by downstream restocking [10]. - On May 28, the iron ore 2509 contract closed down 0.14% to 698.5 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the futures price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. - On May 28, the asphalt 2507 contract closed down 0.91% to 3481 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken, and the futures price will fluctuate [11]. - On May 28 night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13245 yuan/ton. The cotton price is at a near - three - year low, and weather changes should be monitored [12]. - On May 28, the log futures opened at 754, closed at 758, and decreased in positions by 1356 lots. The spot market is in the off - season, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction [12]. - On May 28, the rb2510 of steel closed at 2964 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton. The black - series market will remain in a "bottom - grinding" pattern [13]. - On May 28, the ao2509 of alumina closed at 2991 yuan/ton. The price is near the cost line, and the upside space is limited [13]. - On May 28, the al2507 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20095 yuan/ton. The inventory is low, and the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] Core View - Zinc prices maintain a volatile pattern. The current strong consumption supports zinc prices to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may face a test in June, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.21/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 415 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 110 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton and closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 162,225 lots, a decrease of 180,952 lots from the previous day, and positions were 123,007 lots, an increase of 1,439 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,200 - 22,485 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. As of May 28, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 143,450 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In the spot market, traders continued to hold up prices, and the spot premium remained relatively stable, but downstream procurement sentiment was poor. A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacked sustained momentum. Overseas mine output in Q1 was lower than expected, but domestic smelters had sufficient raw material inventories. TC is expected to rise in June, and smelting still has profits, so the supply pressure remains. The current strong consumption supports high - level volatility of zinc prices, but consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 20.67 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,697 lots, a decrease of 4,123 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,021 lots, an increase of 2,957 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude. Near the end of the month and with the start of new monthly long - term orders, the trading volume in the spot market decreased [2] Inventory - On May 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 28, the LME lead inventory was 291,050 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell call options [3][4]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1406元/吨，缓慢下降 趋势；纯碱开工80.71%，装置运行稳定；纯碱厂家总库存 167.68万吨，环比下降2.06%；浮法玻璃开工率75.24%，周度- 0.22%；全国浮法玻璃均价1233元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全国 浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6776.9万重箱，环比下降0.46%。评： 浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场企业多稳价为 主，加工厂订单未有明显改善，多维持刚需。国内纯碱市场走 势疲软，成交重心下移，企业新订单接收一般，整体需求不温 不火，按需采购为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，上方压 力1220一线，建议观望。 【短评-原油】当地时间28日，欧佩克+召开了线上会议， 据彭博社最新消息，根据会后发布的声明，欧佩克+已同意将 2025年的石油产量水平作为2027年的基准。欧佩克+还将于本周 六举行另一轮谈判，届时可能决定7月是否增产；据央视新闻消 息，当地时间28日，美国总统特朗普表示，他已警告以色列暂 勿攻击伊朗，以便美国政府有更多时间推动与伊朗达成新的核 协议。特朗普说，他认为伊朗希望达成协议，这将"挽救许多 生命"， ...