证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：美元怎么了？ 国内商品方面，黑色系与地产后周期品种承压，情绪偏弱。黑色系中，焦煤和焦炭价格跌幅较大，分别下 跌 3.32%和 2.46%，铁矿石、螺纹钢分别下跌 1.32%、0.20%，仅热轧卷板录得 0.06%的小涨。后地产链的玻璃同 样表现较弱，大幅下跌 3.73%。此外，光伏产业链上游的工业硅与多晶硅价格也出现明显回调，分别下跌 4.31% 和 2.39%。 复盘与思考: 7 月 1 日，股债双牛。股市中季末走弱的几个板块均迎来反弹，债市收益率在季初宽松的底色下重回下行。 除了股债以外，黄金与美元是另一条重要主线，美元指数经历"九连跌"后来到 96.5 附近，黄金价格顺势反 弹，各交易所金价涨幅均在 1.40%以上。 美元到底发生了什么？2025 上半年，美元指数累积跌幅达到 10.8%，创出最近 52 年（1973 以来）上半年 最糟糕表现。今日美元指数继续下跌 0.3%。近期美元指数疲软，可能受到几个因素影响： 一是降息预期升温，CME FedWatch 显示，美联储 9 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

金十数据7月1日讯，瑞郎兑美元升至逾10年高位，因美国政策的不确定性令美元承压，并促使投资者转 向避险资产。分析师称，瑞郎和欧元是投资者寻求美元替代品的主要受益者。荷兰国际银行分析师 Chris Turner在一份报告中表示，瑞郎在瑞士国债收益率较低的情况下仍大涨，暗示"美元的流动性替代 品问题正在发挥作用。"他表示，对美联储可能比此前预期更早降息的预期日益增强，这令美元承压。 政策不确定性重创美元 瑞郎触及10年高点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' flow analysis team indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its upward trend this month due to four main factors: improving liquidity, declining market volatility, easing recession fears, and seasonal benefits, although this upward momentum is anticipated to weaken in August [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has the potential to extend its 25% increase since the April low, with the last monthly decline occurring in July 2014 [1] - Historically, July is one of the strongest months for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.67% since 1928, and the first two weeks of July are typically the best-performing period of the year [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - In addition to seasonal factors, the current rally is supported by declining volatility, which improves capital flows and market sentiment, with an estimated $80 billion expected to flow into global equity markets over the next month [4] - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with effective risk transfer capabilities providing a healthier trading environment [4] - Investor sentiment on Wall Street has improved significantly, with reduced tensions in the Middle East and progress on several trade agreements under the Trump administration [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding concentrated leadership in certain sectors, the performance of low-quality stocks, and a significant increase in bullish positions [5] - Important economic indicators, including U.S. employment data, will be released this week, which could impact market sentiment [5] - Citigroup's stock strategists express caution, noting that the current rally has led to substantial profits for long positions, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices, with average holding returns around 5%, raising the risk of profit-taking potentially limiting further upside [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tracking of U.S. labor data and the implications for Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, indicating a potential delay in such actions [1] - There is speculation about gold prices potentially reaching 3350, reflecting market reactions to economic indicators and monetary policy [1]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/1 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/27 | | 2025/6/23 | 至 2025/6/27 | | | 焦炭 | 1421.50 | 焦炭 | | 2.67% | | | 铜 | 79920.00 | 铜 | | 2.47% | | ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market showed significant differentiation on July 1, with the shipping index for European routes rising over 7%, while industrial silicon fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1379.05 points, up 2.58 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping index for European routes reported a 9.6% increase, reaching 2123.24 points, supported by airlines adjusting freight rates and positive market expectations for July [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The market's increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a weaker dollar, resulting in a continuous rebound in spot gold prices, with both Shanghai gold and silver rising over 1% [4] - The ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies are providing additional support for gold prices, as global public debt continues to expand [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Related Commodities - Industrial silicon prices fell over 4%, with production cuts from major northern manufacturers and a potential decrease in electricity prices in southern regions [5] - The supply side remains under pressure despite some production cuts, as smaller furnaces in southern regions are resuming operations, maintaining high inventory levels [5] - Focus on coal futures also showed a decline of over 3%, with expectations of increased production from various coal mines in Shanxi as environmental inspections conclude [5] Group 4: Glass Market - Glass prices dropped over 3%, with production resuming at several facilities, including a significant plant in Shandong [6] - Despite slight inventory reductions in some regions, overall demand remains weak, keeping glass prices under pressure [6]

潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 接连调整几天之后，今天，国际黄金价格突然上涨。 截至7月1日17点发稿时，伦敦现货黄金日内涨幅涨超1%，接近3340美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨1.3%，站上3350美元/盎司。 | 17:00 | | "l ? □ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 A | COMEX黄金 | | | | | GC.CMX | | | | 3350.6 | 昨结 3307.7 总手 | | 5.40 | | +42.9 | +1.30% / 1 3315.7 现手 | | | | 最高价 | 3354.3 持 仓 31.86万 外 盘 | | 2.3 | | 最低价 | 3313.7 壇 仓 内 壹 1455 | | 3.11 | | 分时 | 五日 周K | | 日名 | | 叠加 | 均价:3336.3 | | | | 3354.3 ... | ---------------------- | | 3350.9 3350.7 | | | | 4:44 | 3351.1 | | AM | | 4:44 | 3351.2 | | 3307.7 | 0.00% ...

当前全球金融市场的主旋律无疑是围绕着美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）的货币政策预期展开的。特别是 外汇市场，正经历着一场由"降息热潮"所主导的显著波动。 市场参与者似乎已经完全沉浸在对美联储即将放松货币政策的预期之中，其激进程度甚至超越了美联储 官员公开表达的谨慎立场。 期货市场对九月降息的完全定价以及对七月降息的显著概率赋予，反映了一种强烈的信念：即美联储将 很快屈服于某种压力（无论是经济数据的恶化还是潜在的政治考量），转向宽松。 这种激进的降息预期直接导致了美元在本周初的疲软。 美元作为全球储备货币和避险资产，其价值与美国的利率水平和经济前景紧密相关。当市场预期利率将 下降时，持有美元的吸引力随之减弱，资金倾向于流向收益率更高或增长前景更好的资产。 德国通胀的温和上升提示了欧元区内部可能存在的通胀压力，这可能使欧洲央行（ECB）在考虑降息时 更加谨慎。欧洲央行目前维持的"坐视不理"立场，与市场对美联储的激进预期形成对比，这限制了欧元 自身上涨的动力。 2 年期掉期利差的收窄虽然提供了技术性支撑，但欧元/美元的长期走势仍将主要取决于美元的走向以 及市场对美联储政策的重新定价。 与外汇市场的"降息热潮"形成鲜明对 ...