Group 1 - Silver has seen a significant price increase, reaching a high of $91.531 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 28% and over 210% since 2025 [1][10] - The surge in silver prices has resulted in substantial profits for investors, including a property company in Hong Kong that reported a profit of 247 million yuan from silver investments [2][3] - The company, Qifu Life Services, began investing in silver in 2020, purchasing 800,000 ounces at an average cost of 128.75 yuan per ounce, and has since realized significant gains through strategic selling [4][5][6] Group 2 - Recent market dynamics, including a tightening global supply and increased demand from institutional investors, have contributed to the bullish outlook for silver prices [10][11] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to launch a new 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, to cater to the growing retail demand for silver trading [11][12] - Analysts predict that silver prices may reach $100 per ounce in the near term, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased investment interest [10][12]

SHMET 网讯：现货白银周三创出历史新高，在供应紧张和地缘政治不确定性推动下，贵金属市场迎来 新一轮上涨行情。与此同时，工业金属铜和锡同步走强，反映出大宗商品市场的广泛看涨情绪。 1月14日，现货白银史上首次站上90美元/盎司关口，截至发稿时涨4.26%，报90.63美元/盎司。今年以来 白银价格已累计上涨25%。推动贵金属走强的因素包括美国12月CPI数据公布后市场对美联储降息预期 升温，以及持续的实物供应短缺。 现货黄金也进一步走高，目前报4637美元/盎司。澳新银行预计2026年下半年黄金价格将高于5000美元/ 盎司。 此轮贵金属上涨也带动工业金属走强。LME铜价创历史新高，伦锡一度涨近6%至52495美元，超越2022 年创下的前高位。对人工智能和数据中心的强劲投资使得大量资金涌入锡市场。 美联储降息预期升温提振贵金属 1月13日美国劳工部公布的数据显示，2025年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%。数据公布 后，交易员加大了对美联储较早降息的押注，预测显示美联储4月降息概率从38%升至42%，白银价格 随之飙升。 花旗近日大幅上调短期贵金属目标价，将未来0-3个月的白银价格 ...

1月14日，昨日周二我们认为，市场对美联储年内降息两次的预期升温，以及地缘风险集中发酵刺激避 险买盘，共同推动了黄金上涨，支撑金价刷新历史新高，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4550美 元，黄金站稳这里有机会继续冲高，上方压力则关注4600美元，其次4630美元，若继续向上突破，上方 空间可以关注4680美元。 从之后的走势看，周二欧盘盘中，黄金保持4570到4600美元区间高位震荡，临近美盘时，黄金回落4577 美元企稳，走势震荡上行，美盘开盘后突破站稳4600美元整数位置，最高涨至4634美元，进一步刷新历 史新高，此后金价震荡回落，跌至4570美元企稳后，黄金再度企稳上涨，周三开盘后刷新历史新高至 4639美元，此后金价多次试探，未能继续向上突破，目前交投于4632美元。总体来看，黄金再度刷新历 史新高，与我们的看涨预期一致。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，黄金在周一刷新历史新高后，周三继续上涨，再创历史新高，短线表现强 势，美联储降息预期与地缘紧张局势，依旧为黄金上涨提供重要支撑。消息方面，上周五公布的美国非 农数据，新增就业人数仅5万，显示美国就业市场依旧疲软，以及周二公布的美国CPI数据低 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月14日，ATFX：昨日公布数据显示，随着美国政府停摆导致11月通胀率被人为压低的一些扭曲因素逐 渐消退，美国12月消费者物价上涨，受房租和食品价格攀升带动，这巩固了美联储本月将维持利率不变 的预期。美国劳工统计局称，12月消费者物价指数（CPI）环比上涨0.3%，12月CPI同比上涨2.7%。 由于美国通胀数据巩固了对美联储今年降息的押注，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需 求，周二的黄金和白银继续创高位。周二，金价在早盘一度飙升至每盎司4634.55美元的新高后，白银 价格一度突破每盎司89美元，创下历史新高，随后涨幅有所回落。 今晚市场继续关注美国12月PPI和零售销售，预计12月PPI年率为2.6%。同时段的11月零售销售也是关注 重点，预计月率将摆脱停滞录得0.4%的增速，主要考虑假期消费增加的关键提振。其中，零售销售报 告是指引黄金的关键，若月率显著高于预期 0.4%：反映消费强劲，可能暗示经济韧性，降低市场避险 需求，且可能延缓美联储降息节奏，对贵金属短线利空。若数据疲软，可能加剧对经济担忧，强化避险 情绪，支撑金银价格，可能尝试挑战新高，需要关注数据公布 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2026 年 01 月 14 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 核心通胀降温，降息预期不改 ——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 12 月 CPI 报告。12 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，环比 0.3%， 均符合市场预期并持平前值。核心通胀降温，核心 CPI 同比涨幅 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来最低水平，同时低于预期 2.7%；环比 0.2%，低于预期 0.3%。 邮箱：xxxxx＠t ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4634.33 per ounce on January 14 but quickly retreated to around $4586, raising investor concerns about the potential end of the gold bull market [1][5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, both below analyst expectations [1][5] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also underperforming against forecasts [1][5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with a 27.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in March [1][5] Market Reactions - Despite the favorable inflation data for gold bulls, the market's reaction was mixed, indicating concerns about economic cooling and the Fed's cautious approach [2][6] - U.S. Treasury yields saw a mild decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.175% and the 30-year yield at 4.823%, but this did not translate into strong support for gold [7] - The breakeven yields for five-year and ten-year inflation-protected securities rose to 2.368% and 2.3%, suggesting that the market expects future inflation to be manageable, reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [7] Currency Impact - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.3% to 99.18, bolstered by strong employment data from the previous week [3][7] - Following the inflation data release, the dollar initially dipped but quickly regained strength, enhancing its attractiveness against other currencies [3][7] - A strong dollar increases the holding cost of gold priced in dollars, pressuring international buyers and contributing to the price drop from record highs [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a pre-market rise, driven by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coeur Mining increased by 3.5% [1] - Pan American Silver rose by 2.8% [1] - Kinross Gold and Gold Fields both saw a rise of 2.4% [1] - Harmony Gold gained 1.8% [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot gold is approaching $4,640 per ounce [1] - Spot silver surged over 5% during the day, breaking through $91 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - Silver has seen a significant price increase, reaching a high of $91.531 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 28% and over 210% since 2025 [1][6] - The company Qifu Life Services reported a profit of 247 million yuan from silver investments, having sold 40,000 ounces for 226 million yuan and 28,000 ounces for 162 million yuan [3][5] - The company began investing in silver in 2020, purchasing 800,000 ounces at an average cost of 128.75 yuan per ounce, and has strategically sold portions of its holdings to realize profits [4][5] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, to meet record retail demand [7] - The new contract aims to provide easier access to the silver market for retail investors, allowing them to control larger positions with less capital [7][8] - The demand for silver is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainties and energy transition, making it an attractive investment for those looking to diversify [8]

CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝高位下挫，LME三个月北京时间14：52报于3190.5美元/吨，较上一交易日 结算价跌5.5美元/吨，跌幅0.17%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2603合约冲高回落，尾盘震荡收阴；开盘价报24500元/吨，盘中最高25005 元/吨，最低24465元/吨，昨日结算24610元/吨，尾盘收至24595元/吨，跌15元，跌幅0.06%；沪铝主力 月2603合约全天成交量777707手减少47846手，持仓量368605手减少2376手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格24650-24690元/吨，涨370元，贴水195-贴水155，跌30 元；广东现货24665-24715元/吨，涨380元，贴水85-贴水35，跌15元；上海地区24640-24680元/吨，涨 370元，贴水205-贴水165，跌30元。 宏观层面，美国12月CPI数据表现温和，环比涨0.3%、同比2.7%，核心CPI环比0.2%、同比2.6%，均低 于市场预期。这强化了市场对美联储今年两次降息的预期，低利率环境利好风险资产，降低持有成本并 吸引资金流入。不过，美国货币政策独立性争议再起，中东局势不确定性 ...

Core Market Trends - US stock index futures collectively declined, with Dow Jones futures down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.18% [2] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.16%, UK FTSE 100 down 0.03%, France's CAC40 up 0.31%, and Germany's DAX30 up 0.13% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.5%, reaching a new high of 54,341.23 points, marking its second consecutive day of gains [2] Bond Market Movements - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 2 basis points to 4.16%, while the yield on Japan's 30-year government bond increased by 3.5 basis points to 3.515% [3] Currency and Commodity Performance - The US dollar remained stable, while the Japanese yen fluctuated around 159 against the dollar [4] - Spot gold increased by 1% to $4,632.93 per ounce, and spot silver rose to over $91 per ounce, gaining 4.7% [4] - LME copper prices reached a historical high, indicating strong demand in the metals market [4] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin rose by 0.9% to $94,898.64, and Ethereum increased by 3.8% to $3,331.21 [5] Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Core inflation in the US showed signs of cooling, which briefly boosted market expectations for an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the next cut anticipated in June [5] - The expectation of a rate cut is supporting industrial metal prices, with tin prices on the LME rising by 5% to $52,015 per ton, marking a new historical high [17]