印尼官员：除酒精饮料和猪肉外，所有进口到印尼的美国商品都将享受零关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson believes a bull market is forming in U.S. stocks, but the S&P 500 index may face a 5%-10% decline this quarter due to the impact of President Trump's trade policies on corporate balance sheets, which will provide an attractive entry point for investors [1] - The S&P 500 index recently reached a new all-time high, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion in just a few months, following a brief bear market triggered by Trump's tariffs [1][2] - Wilson noted that the breadth of earnings revisions is improving, indicating that companies are effectively managing the challenges posed by tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The third quarter is expected to be a concentrated risk period, as the effects of tariffs may start to impact product sales costs, but any market impact is anticipated to be temporary, with investors focusing on growth expectations for 2026 [3] - Recent strong retail sales data in June alleviated some concerns regarding consumer spending, supporting the positive outlook for the market [3] - Despite uncertainties surrounding the White House's trade plans potentially leading to short-term declines, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, having already bottomed out in April [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is poised for a new bull market, but short-term risks should be monitored [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index may decline by 5% to 10% within the current quarter due to pressure on corporate earnings from President Trump's trade policies, but this pullback is expected to be "temporary and mild," providing a buying opportunity for investors [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Recent broad tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration are beginning to impact corporate balance sheets, with the third-quarter earnings season expected to reflect these effects for the first time [3] - The number of industries with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased, indicating that companies are gradually absorbing the impact of tariffs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by a few technology giants, while cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials have not fully participated [3] - If trade risks lead to a broader earnings revision, funds may shift from growth stocks to value stocks, resulting in a more balanced rise in the index components [3] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - The market oscillates between fear and greed, and the key is to distinguish between temporary pullbacks and structural bear markets, with corporate earnings trajectories serving as the ultimate judge [3]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market shows a bullish trend, particularly in rapeseed meal futures, which experienced a price increase of 2.49%, reaching a high of 2723.00 CNY/ton [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor, leading to price pressure from soybean meal due to seasonal inventory accumulation [1][2] - The new season's rapeseed production is expected to increase, but tight supply from the previous season keeps prices firm, with domestic rapeseed imports expected to decline significantly from July to September [2] Group 2 - The European Union and Canada are experiencing low rainfall, affecting soil moisture for canola planting, while global canola production is recovering but planting area is down year-on-year [2] - Domestic oil mills are seeing a reduction in rapeseed meal inventory, but year-on-year levels remain high, with a significant drop in imports due to high tariffs and strong old crop canola prices [2] - The market is currently facing uncertainty due to trade policies, with domestic meal prices showing stronger performance compared to international markets, and short-term price movements are expected to remain within a range [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent inflation report has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, resulting in a rise in the US dollar index and a decline in gold and silver prices [1][2]. - The spot gold price experienced a drop of 0.56%, closing at $3324.96 per ounce, marking a second consecutive day of decline [1]. - Spot silver fell by 1.15%, closing below the $38 mark at $37.7 per ounce [1]. Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is facing resistance around the $3342-$3343 range, with potential upward movement towards $3365-$3366 if this level is surpassed [2]. - A significant support level for gold is identified at $3300, with further support at $3283-$3282, and a potential decline towards the July low of $3248-$3247 if these levels are breached [2]. - For silver, key support is at the psychological level of $38.00 and the 50-period simple moving average at $37.23, while resistance remains at the year-to-date high of $39.13 [4].

Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, Hong Kong stock market, and the Indian market Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Stock Market Outlook** - The resilience of inflation may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, impacting market expectations for rate reductions [1] - As of May 11, 2025, nearly 78% of U.S. companies have reported Q1 earnings, indicating a strong earnings season [1] - The second half of the year is expected to release positive news for corporate earnings, including tax cuts and regulatory relaxations [2] 2. **Gold Market Insights** - Among the 12 major gold ETFs, only 5 have seen increased holdings, with a notable decline in the number of shares held [2] - The week saw a 0.7% decrease in gold trust holdings compared to the previous week, indicating a trend of institutional selling and retail buying [2] 3. **Hong Kong Stock Market Trends** - The Hang Seng Index has been in a rebound trend for four consecutive weeks, currently above 25,000 [3] - Market sentiment regarding tariff negotiations is cautious, with no optimistic expectations for immediate results [3][4] - The potential for a defensive market strategy is suggested, with a slight improvement in risk appetite compared to the previous month [5] 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations for Hong Kong** - Focus on AI technology and domestic consumption sectors, while also considering high-yield investments as a defensive measure [7] - The global narrative around technology remains strong, with positive earnings from U.S. tech companies boosting market expectations [7][8] 5. **Indian Market Perspective** - The Indian market is viewed positively despite recent declines, as it is seen as a defensive asset with limited negative impact from global tariffs [10] - Foreign capital is gradually flowing into the Indian stock market, indicating a long-term positive outlook [11] 6. **General Market Sentiment** - The overall sentiment for both U.S. and Hong Kong markets remains cautious, with expectations of potential rebounds but also recognition of underlying risks [12][13] - The discussion highlights the importance of geopolitical risks and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [6][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for early dividend payouts by companies in anticipation of currency pressures later in the year [8] - The need for a careful assessment of tariff negotiations and their implications for market performance [4][13] - The emphasis on maintaining a balanced investment approach that considers both growth opportunities and defensive strategies in light of global uncertainties [9][12]

【环球网财经综合报道】上周，美国总统特朗普向多个地区和国家发送新的关税函，市场避险情绪迅速升温，白银价格突破多年新高，黄金、铂 金价格亦小幅上扬。 Cavatoni表示，本届美国政府已明确将解决对外国关键矿产或其他资产的依赖列为重要任务，任何关键矿产、战略矿产，或对美国国防、能源等 行业至关重要的金属，都可能被纳入关税政策范围。不过，目前黄金主要被视为货币金属，而非关键矿产，其作用更多体现在储蓄、投资组合及 央行储备等方面，不在本届政府认定的关键矿产名单上。 但黄金国际实物流动存在一定问题，这可能推动特朗普政府采取关税措施。Cavatoni称，世界黄金协会正密切关注金属跨境运输的物流挑战及潜 在关税进展。目前，黄金关税在征收细节上尚不明确，如是否涵盖原材料或成品、以批发价还是进口价计算等，但从过往经验看，一切皆有可 能。 世界黄金协会（WGC）北美首席市场策略师Joe Cavatoni指出，当前金价持续在每盎司3300美元附近盘整，反映出市场正焦急等待利率和贸易政 策走向明朗。此前美国突然宣布对铜征收进口关税，犹如一记警钟，提醒投资者黄金未来也可能面临类似风险。 对于黄金走势，Cavatoni认为，当前推动黄 ...

Group 1: Hot News - China's social financing scale increment in the first half of this year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first half of this year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports, imports, and overall trade all increased [2] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on July 15 to introduce the economic performance in the first half of 2025 [2] - Chinese coal enterprises are urged to implement the medium - and long - term power coal contract system and promote market balance [2] - US President Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatens 100% secondary tariffs, and plans to impose new tariffs on multiple countries from August 1 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, rebar, and soybean meal [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 28.63%, oilseeds 12.36%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Holdings - Information on the five - day change in commodity futures sector holdings is presented, but specific data is in graphical form [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% daily, S&P 500 0.14%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index was flat daily, WTI crude oil fell 2.38% [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, CBOE volatility was flat [6]