Market Overview - A-shares experienced rapid rotation with notable resonance characteristics, including stock and futures synchronization, as well as resonance among cyclical sectors [1][4][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.13%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.41 trillion yuan [2][3] Sector Performance - The commodity market showed strong linkage with the A-share market, with multi-crystalline silicon and glass futures leading the gains, where multi-crystalline silicon hit the daily limit and glass rose over 6% [5][18] - In the A-share market, sectors such as photovoltaic, glass, and steel saw significant increases, with Chongqing Steel surging to a limit up within 8 minutes, and its H-shares rising over 130% at one point [6][18] Key Stocks - Notable stocks included Daqo New Energy and Dongfang Risheng, which saw increases of 15.68% and 10.59% respectively, while other photovoltaic-related stocks also performed well [17] - The copper sector showed strength with stocks like Jinchuan Group and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic factors influencing copper prices [13][24] Futures Market Insights - The futures market indicated a strong performance in black metals, with silicon iron futures rising over 3% [21] - Recent reports suggested that approximately half of the steel mills received notifications regarding production restrictions, which may impact supply dynamics [18] Long-term Outlook - The average price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices is at a median level over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [26] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with investment opportunities identified in banking, electricity, chemical pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding sectors [26]

首席联合电话会 - 周期专场 20250618 摘要 房地产市场呈现优质供给驱动销售的特点，整体销售量受优质供给影响 显著。尽管房企促销手段多样，但难以有效提升非优质产品的销售，市 场企稳回升时间尚不明确。 短期内，房地产板块存在 7 月份潜在博弈机会，预计三季度或有房地产 政策出台，并可能与其他金融政策配合。推荐关注绿城中国、越秀地产、 建发和滨江等估值偏低的优质标的。 2025 年 5 月基建投资增速放缓，财政支出对基建支持有限，专项债发 行进度滞后但全年额度预计用完，特别国债开始发行。下半年专项债应 用将带来工作量提升。 顺周期标的如鸿路钢构、金工、中国巨石、雨虹防水和三棵树估值已达 安全水平，可左侧布局。央企如中国建筑、隧道股份、四川路桥及水泥 企业塔牌集团、海螺水泥、华新水泥可作为配置选择。 有色金属板块中，贵金属方面长期看好黄金，短期宏观风险或致金价震 荡，关注紫金矿业、湖南黄金及山东黄金。工业金属方面，铜铝价格震 荡，关注五矿资源及宏发股份的扩产速度。 Q&A 房地产市场的当前状况如何？未来的投资机会在哪里？ 从基本面来看，房地产市场仍然由供给驱动。我们在重庆、成都、深圳和广州 等城市的调研显示 ...

券商中国记者获悉，原民生证券策略首席分析师牟一凌今日（6月20日）已入职国金证券，拟任公司首席策 略官、常务副所长，以及策略组负责人。 牟一凌于2013年毕业参加工作，2015年开始进入证券行业，曾任职于原国泰君安证券、开源证券、民生证券等 机构研究所。近几年，牟一凌凭借在"旧能源"及实物资产的独到研究，迅速被市场所熟知，并于2024年上榜新 财富最佳分析师。 就在上周，市场上传出牟一凌从民生证券离职的消息，牟一凌本人也向券商中国记者确认已退工。6月13日上 午，牟一凌在朋友圈发布了民生证券策略团队的合影，并配文"独家记忆"。据悉，民生证券策略团队成员包括 纪博文、吴晓明、王况炜、方智勇、梅锴、沈心怡、季宏坤等。 过去几年，牟一凌凭借其兼具逻辑性与前瞻性的研究，尤其是在"周期研究"与其对实物资产的逻辑构建上的突 出表现，逐渐成为市场上关注度最高的券商策略分析师之一。 早在2020年6月，牟一凌在市场追捧核心资产的背景下发现了风格切换的迹象，提出了"顺周期"的概念，并不 断强调要"布局周期股时机已到"，此后周期大戏愈演愈烈，也验证了当时便是配置周期较好的时间窗口。 2021年1月，港股市场人气火爆，市场上甚至开 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and reflections of Li Bei, the head of Banxia Investment, focusing on her current investment portfolio and logic [1] Investment Strategy - Over 80% of the stock holdings are characterized by being cyclical, high-dividend, and low price-to-book ratio, with representative stocks including undervalued state-owned construction enterprises and global building materials leaders [1] - The investment portfolio will maintain a 10%-15% allocation to gold as a strategic component, considering the decline of the dollar system [1] Future Investment Approach - The company plans to continuously track foreign institutional investors' sentiment and position surveys, engaging in direct communication with foreign institutions to enhance understanding [1] - There will be an increase in stock selection standards, focusing on companies with alpha [1] - The company will adhere to its value framework and risk control system, and will not participate in small-cap stocks [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced fluctuations and upward trends in early June, with a focus on fundamental investment logic from June to August [1] - Institutions recommend focusing on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity, including automotive, non-ferrous metals, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals [1][6] - Short-term fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks are expected, but they possess recovery potential in the medium to long term, making them worthy of investor attention [10] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, with a total of 7.383 million ounces as of the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [2] - Foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs express optimism about the asset allocation value in China, citing favorable economic growth expectations and relatively low asset valuations [4] Group 3 - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of fundamental investment logic from June to August, highlighting the supply chain for computing power (AI servers, optical modules, switches, etc.) as a key focus area [5] - Dongwu Securities suggests that short-term thematic rotation may continue, with attention on new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, controllable nuclear fusion, AI edge devices, and commercial aerospace [7] - Huatai-PB Fund anticipates an increase in focus on consumption and cyclical sectors, driven by improved Q1 A-share company performance and potential recovery in foreign trade and economic expectations [8] - Huitianfu Fund indicates that the timing for technology growth investments is approaching, with the market sentiment having been released after prior adjustments, particularly in the AI industry chain [9]

Core Insights - The discussion emphasizes the transition from a growth-oriented economy to a stock economy, highlighting the importance of efficiency in business operations [2][6][9] - The author expresses a sense of urgency in writing the book "Efficiency is King," aiming to provide practical tools for entrepreneurs in the current economic climate [3][10] - The conversation outlines three strategic approaches for businesses: pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical, and anti-cyclical, suggesting that opportunities exist in all three [11][13] Group 1: Efficiency in Business - The author argues that in the stock economy, efficiency must take precedence over speed and scale, contrasting with the previous growth economy where rapid expansion was prioritized [8][9] - Companies that fail to focus on efficiency are likely to face significant risks, as evidenced by the collapse of previously successful firms [9][10] - The concept of "first core efficiency indicators" is introduced, which refers to identifying the largest expenditure in a company and optimizing it for better performance [15][16] Group 2: Strategic Approaches - The author discusses the importance of setting strategic efficiency indicators, suggesting methods such as self-comparison and benchmarking against peers [17][19] - The conversation highlights the significance of aligning business strategies with market realities, emphasizing the need for adaptability in a changing economic landscape [26][30] - The author advocates for a structured approach to strategic meetings, focusing on clear objectives and outcomes to enhance organizational efficiency [25][26] Group 3: Organizational Efficiency - The discussion includes recommendations for maintaining a healthy organizational structure, such as controlling the ratio of management to staff and minimizing hierarchical layers [32][34] - The author stresses the importance of effective recruitment, training, and performance evaluation to sustain organizational vitality [36][37] - The conversation concludes with a focus on the necessity of aligning individual aspirations with organizational goals to foster a cohesive work environment [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of bond-type fund managers in enhancing the flexibility of product net values amid optimistic market sentiment and the growing attractiveness of equity assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in market volatility is encouraging more funds to enter the market, with the 10-year government bond yield returning to around 1.6%, leading to asset allocation concerns among institutional and individual investors [3]. - Since September of the previous year, there has been a significant increase in investors' risk appetite, and the involvement of stabilizing funds has contributed to reduced volatility in the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy of the fund emphasizes a contrarian approach and value investing, focusing on low drawdown and stable returns by integrating macroeconomic judgments with individual stock valuations and earnings [4]. - The current investment framework includes adjusting overall stock positions based on macroeconomic assessments, adjusting industry weights based on mid-level economic conditions, and selecting leading stocks for diversified holdings [4]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - The fund manager prefers to focus on industry selection rather than individual stock picking, maintaining a balanced industry allocation while being responsive to changes in industry conditions and valuation [8]. - The fund is particularly optimistic about sectors related to domestic consumption, healthcare, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical recovery, which are expected to see a resurgence in the latter half of the year [9]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The article highlights a strong performance in the new consumption sector, which is seen as a unique bright spot amid overall consumption recovery, driven by new product categories and companies with strong operational capabilities [10][11].

证券研究报告 建筑材料 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 房地产政策表述聚焦久期，顺周期依然为盾 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. 板块跟踪 | | --- | | 1.1. 板块跟踪 | | 1.2. 行业动态 | | 2. 数据跟踪. | | 2.1. 水泥：仍然跌多涨少，下周或将延续跌势 . | | 2.2. 浮法玻璃：价格跌多涨少，交投不温不火. | | 2.3. 光伏玻璃：交投欠佳，库存缓增…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

AI基金汇添富红利增长混合A（006259）披露2025年一季报，第一季度基金利润2156.16万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0396元。报告期内，基金净值增 长率为2.35%，截至一季度末，基金规模为8.7亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至4月24日，单位净值为1.514元。基金经理是劳杰男和黄耀锋，目前共同管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至4月24 日，汇添富红利增长混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达5.86%；汇添富研究优选灵活配置混合最低，为4.16%。 基金管理人在一季报中表示，从基本面来看，一季度全 A 盈利预期开始改善，但盈利明显修复仍要等到通胀等价格指标修复，且在关税影响出口的情况 下，盈利预期或有波动。风格方面，关税压制短期风险偏好，波动率抬升、资金倾向于防御，红利风格或相对跑赢。后续随着内需的修复，其顺周期属性有 望跟随经济修复获得估值上升。本基金依然秉持行业配置相对均衡，在红利组合中优选成长估值匹配度较高、具有长期价值的优质企业。 截至4月24日，汇添富红利增长混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为3.04%，位于同类可比基金61/256；近半年复权单位净值增长率为-0.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to face significant pressure in 2024 due to falling coal prices, leading to an estimated 18.8% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a further decline of 29.7% anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Industry Summary - The total revenue for the coal industry in 2024 is projected to be 1.3574 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 146.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.8% decline [2]. - In Q1 2025, the coal industry is expected to generate 279.5 billion yuan in revenue, down 17.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.65 billion yuan, representing a 29.7% decline [2]. - The supply-demand dynamics for thermal coal are expected to weaken, with a notable increase in coal imports and the release of production capacity in the latter half of 2024, leading to further price pressures [2]. Coal Segment Analysis - The coking coal segment is anticipated to see a revenue decline of 11.4% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 45.5% due to weak demand and policy constraints [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced by the overall health of the black metal industry, with a decrease in demand from key sectors like real estate and infrastructure contributing to price declines [3]. Investment Logic - High-dividend coal companies are expected to exhibit defensive characteristics, with recommendations to focus on firms with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088), Shaanxi Coal (601225), and China Coal Energy (601898) [4]. - The coal-electricity joint operation model is seen as a way to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and benefit from price differentials between market and long-term contract coal prices, with suggested companies including Xinjie Energy (601918), Shaanxi Coal, and China Shenhua [5]. - The cyclical sector may benefit from economic stimulus policies, with expectations of increased domestic demand driven by government fiscal measures, recommending attention to Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), Huaibei Mining (600985), and Pingdingshan Coal (601666) [6].