1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

CPI Insights - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and rose by 0.8% year-on-year (previous value: 0.7%) [1] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and maintained a year-on-year growth of 1.2% for four consecutive months [1] - The main driver for the food CPI was the seasonal increase in fresh fruit prices, while fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decrease in growth [5] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) but showed a year-on-year decline of -1.9% (previous value: -2.2%) [13] - The structural characteristics of PPI indicate an improvement in overall economic conditions, with the PMI at 50.1% [13] - Rising prices in industrial goods are influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand in sectors like new energy and AI [2] Market Outlook - The outlook for CPI in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, driven by the upward trend in consumer goods prices due to rising raw material costs [2] - The long-term forecast suggests that pig prices may gradually enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, impacting food CPI [5] - The overall improvement in industrial product prices reflects a recovery in market conditions, supported by various economic policies [13]

Group 1 - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Key industries such as coal mining and washing, as well as coal processing, saw prices rise by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, both continuing to increase for five consecutive months [1] - The price of new energy vehicle manufacturing shifted from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, China's PPI decreased by 1.9% in December, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The optimization of market competition has led to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline for coal mining, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, with reductions narrowing for five, four, and nine consecutive months respectively [1] - The prices of external storage devices and components increased by 15.3%, while biomass liquid fuel prices rose by 9.0%, and integrated circuit product prices increased by 2.4% [2]

国家统计局1月9日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%， 同比上涨0.8%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。2025年全年，CPI与 上年持平；PPI下降2.6%。 "2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI环比和 同比均有上涨，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。"国家统 计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，CPI同比涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大 主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。食品价格上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影 响比上月增加约0.17个百分点。 具体来看，食品中，鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月 合计增加约0.16个百分点；牛肉、羊肉和水产品价格分别上涨6.9%、4.4%和1.6%，涨幅均有扩大；猪肉 价格下降14.6%，降幅略有收窄。 从环比看，CPI由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。 新华社北京1月9 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the December 2025 consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a 0.8% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 1.9% year-on-year decrease in PPI [1][4]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023 [4]. - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [4]. - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively, while beef, lamb, and aquatic products also experienced price hikes [4]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [5]. Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking three consecutive months of growth, while the year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The article notes that the construction of a unified national market and ongoing macroeconomic policies have positively influenced price trends in various sectors, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices in certain industries [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the CPI has turned from a decline to an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 0.8% in December 2025, reflecting a gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships and effective governance in key industries [2][4] - The CPI for the entire year of 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%. Experts anticipate that with the implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, the price levels are expected to maintain a stable and moderate trend [2] - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with food prices rising by 1.1% year-on-year, and specific categories like fresh vegetables and fruits seeing increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [4][5] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating a stable recovery in demand [5][6] - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9% in December, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to November, suggesting positive changes in certain industries due to effective macro policies [8] - Prices in key sectors such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment have shown signs of recovery, with lithium-ion battery prices increasing by 1.0% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in the industry [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a moderate recovery in prices driven by food price increases and improvements in supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [1][2][7]. CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [2][3]. - Food prices rose by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price hikes of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [2][3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating stable demand recovery [2][3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of growth, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [4][5]. - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases due to improved supply-demand structures, with coal prices rising for five consecutive months [5][6]. - Input factors influenced price trends in the non-ferrous metals and oil-related sectors, with domestic prices for non-ferrous metals rising due to international price increases, while oil prices declined [6]. Future Outlook - Economists predict a moderate recovery in prices for 2026, with CPI expected to rise around 0.5% and PPI potentially turning positive in the third quarter [7][8]. - Factors driving this recovery include improvements in domestic demand, stabilization of service prices, and expectations from residents and businesses [7][8]. - However, some analysts caution that low prices may persist throughout 2026, with a gradual return to inflation expected only by 2027 [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, while showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of increase [1] - The PPI's month-on-month growth has expanded, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed, indicating price recovery in industries related to "anti-involution" such as coal, cement, and new energy vehicle manufacturing, with non-ferrous industries continuing to rise due to input factors [1] - As of January 9, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.12%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as Jinfat Technology (600143) up by 9.99% and Xinjubang (300037) up by 4.63% [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical (600309), Yanhua Co. (000792), and Cangge Mining (000408), with these stocks collectively accounting for 45.31% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices, selecting larger and more liquid listed company securities to reflect the overall performance of the related sub-industries [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, below the expected 0.9%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, better than the expected -2.0% [1][26][40] - December CPI's year-on-year increase is attributed to rising food prices and improved domestic supply-demand relationships, with PPI's decline narrowing due to ongoing capacity management in key industries [2][27][46] - The overall improvement in inflation is supported by the implementation of year-end policy financial tools and accelerated infrastructure projects, leading to a slight recovery in domestic demand [3][27][46] Group 2 - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with food inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.1%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [9][34] - Core CPI remained stable at a high of 1.2%, driven by increased consumer demand and rising prices of gold jewelry, which surged by 68.5% [10][35] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 1.9% reflects a narrowing of price drops in several sectors, including coal mining and lithium battery manufacturing, indicating a positive trend in market competition [15][40][41] Group 3 - The domestic demand remains weak, but the ongoing capacity management in key industries is expected to support price increases in related sectors, leading to a gradual narrowing of PPI declines [22][46] - The anticipated recovery in CPI and PPI is expected to enhance corporate earnings, providing support for stock market fundamentals, while also raising long-term inflation expectations that could negatively impact bond prices [23][47]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the highest increase since August 2023[2] - The cumulative CPI for January to December 2025 was 0.0%, indicating a stagnation in price growth over the year[1] - The main drivers for the December CPI increase included rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather, consumer promotion policies boosting appliance and vehicle prices, and an increase in international gold prices[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.2% decline in November, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% for the year[1] - The December PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of rising prices[6] - Key factors contributing to the PPI changes included improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific increases of 3.7% and 2.8% in mining and refining respectively[7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 was characterized by weak demand and a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, leading to a continued decline in PPI[10] - Looking ahead to January 2026, the CPI is expected to drop to around 0.2% year-on-year due to a higher base effect from the previous year and seasonal price fluctuations[5] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a continued low inflation environment, with an expected annual CPI of approximately 0.4%[5]