2025 年 6 月 10 日 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 2,981 | -1 | -0.03 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,095 | -2 | -0.06 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,433,362 | 2,196,722 | -19,727 | | | HC2510 | 512,180 | 1,585,218 | 2,740 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3110 | 3120 | -10 | | | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook with May CPI slightly above consensus expectations while PPI fell short, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures primarily driven by energy prices [3][8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in high-end equipment manufacturing prices, contrasting with the weakness in energy and raw material prices [3][11] Economic Overview - In May, the CPI experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, primarily due to a 6.1% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.47 percentage points of the CPI decline [9][10] - The core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%, indicating resilience in the service sector despite overall weak domestic demand [8][9] - The PPI saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%, reflecting international input factors and domestic price declines [10][11] Market Performance - The report lists key stocks to watch, including SF Holding (顺丰控股), Anji Technology (安集科技), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [2] - The performance of various industry indices shows pharmaceuticals leading with a 2.30% increase, while food and beverage sectors experienced a decline of 0.43% [5] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the recovery in certain sectors, particularly high-end manufacturing, which is seeing price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [11] - The food and beverage sector's performance is noted as weaker, with a decline in prices, contrasting with the resilience observed in the pharmaceutical sector [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 173.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, there were no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - Following a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation that boosted confidence, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, leading to a more relaxed interbank funding environment, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.29% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4100%, 2Y at 1.4250%, 3Y at 1.4350%, 5Y at 1.4976%, 7Y at 1.5865%, and 10Y at 1.6550% [8] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also show slight variations, with some yields decreasing [8] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while PPI fell by 3.3%, worse than the expected drop of 3.2% [12] Group 6: International Economic Dialogue - During a visit to the UK, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed economic and financial cooperation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, emphasizing the need for mutual efforts to implement agreements and deepen economic relations [14]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, a rise of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, although some sectors showed marginal price improvements [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decline, while food prices fell by 0.2%, less than the seasonal average decline of 1.1% [1][2] Group 2 - In May, the year-on-year decline in energy prices was 6.1%, which was the main factor affecting the CPI, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall decline [2] - The core CPI's increase of 0.6% year-on-year was supported by rising prices in various categories, including gold jewelry (up 40.1%), household textiles (up 1.9%), and durable goods for entertainment (up 1.8%) [2] - The PPI's decline was influenced by international factors, particularly the decrease in international crude oil prices, which affected domestic oil-related industries, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the PPI decline [3]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued impact of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, significantly affecting the overall CPI decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [1] Group 2 - PPI data showed marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and some manufacturing prices narrowing their year-on-year decline [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Economic analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price index, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to previous consumption-boosting policies [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from April [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.13 percentage points of the total CPI decline [2] - The hospitality and tourism sectors saw price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1][4] - The decrease in PPI was largely due to international factors, with significant price drops in the oil and gas extraction sector (5.6%) and refined petroleum products (3.5%) [4] - Domestic energy and raw material prices also saw a decline, particularly in the coal sector, which experienced a 3.0% drop due to seasonal demand [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's mild recovery reflects improvements in supply and demand structures across various industries, supported by macroeconomic policies [3][6] - The overall economic resilience is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in CPI, with increased demand during the summer likely to boost service prices [3] - The PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, although it may take time to exit negative territory [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] - Core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating resilience in domestic consumption [2][3] - Prices of gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable entertainment goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively, while fuel and new energy vehicle prices fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, showing a narrowing decline [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][3] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to weak commodity prices and significant input price pressures, particularly in the coal, steel, and cement sectors due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][4] - Some sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, saw price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.6% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for domestic prices suggests a likely moderate recovery in CPI, with food prices expected to remain stable and energy prices potentially rebounding [4] - PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, but it may take time to exit negative territory, influenced by external trade dynamics and domestic demand recovery [4] - Key areas to monitor include ongoing input price pressures, recovery in domestic demand, particularly in real estate, and trends in core consumption [4]

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in London, attended by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council [1] - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified companies to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions aimed at further ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent and difficult issues faced by the public [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the activities of Chinese naval vessels in relevant waters fully comply with international law and conventions [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in goods trade imports and exports in the first five months of this year, with trade with the U.S. decreasing by 8.1% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] International News - Japan's chief negotiator Akira Amari plans to visit the U.S. this week regarding tariffs [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the U.S. proposal concerning the Iran nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[4] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past five and ten years[6] - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month decline of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.7%[4] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, indicating continued weak performance[26] - Production material prices were under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, affecting the overall industrial producer price level by about 2.98 percentage points[30] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service prices showed stronger recovery compared to consumer goods, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods continued to decline[9] - Transportation and communication prices experienced significant month-on-month declines, with transportation fuel prices dropping by 3.7%[11] - Core CPI, excluding energy, saw an increase, indicating a recovery in non-energy consumer goods and services driven by policy support and holiday effects[25]