Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, S&P 500 up 0.69%, and Nasdaq up 0.82% driven by investor expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - The market rebound has erased most of the earlier sell-off this month, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a buy-the-dip strategy, particularly in tech stocks [1] - The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday will see the U.S. markets closed on Thursday and a shortened trading session on Friday [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity across most districts remained stable, with a noted decline in overall consumer spending but strong performance in high-end retail [1] - Some retailers reported that government shutdowns negatively impacted consumer purchasing power, while electric vehicle sales saw a decline due to the expiration of federal tax credits [1] - There are increasing risks of an economic slowdown in the coming months, although manufacturers expressed some optimism [1] Group 3: Sector Performance - Airline stocks surged, with American Airlines and Delta Air Lines rising over 3%, and Southwest Airlines, Boeing, and United Airlines increasing over 2% [2] - Chip stocks mostly rose, with Marvell Technology up over 5%, and other companies like AMD, ASML, and Broadcom rising over 3% [3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with some like Atlassian Solar up over 8%, while others like Hesai Technology and Tuya Smart saw declines of over 5% [3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude oil rising by $0.70 to $58.65 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increasing by $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel [3] - Gold prices saw a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures up 0.46% to $4158.90 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing upward momentum against the US dollar, supported by various economic factors and market conditions, indicating a potential for continued strength in the currency. Group 1: Currency Performance - On November 26, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was raised again, reaching a high not seen in over a year, with onshore and offshore yuan both rising to around 7.08 [1] - Since mid-September, the US dollar index has strengthened from around 96 to nearly 100, while the yuan has shown an upward trend against the dollar, reflecting a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has shown resilience this year, with enhanced export strength and a favorable international balance of payments, achieving a record total of $11.6 trillion in foreign-related receipts for the first three quarters [2] - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border funds, surpassing the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand conditions [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The meeting between the Chinese and US leaders has contributed to a stable and improving bilateral relationship, providing strong external support for the yuan's strength [2] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is anticipated to further support the yuan's appreciation [2] - The end of the year is traditionally a peak season for currency settlement, which is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the yuan [2] Group 4: Risk Management and Market Dynamics - Companies are increasingly adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, and improvements in risk management are enhancing the stability of the yuan [2] - The price mechanism is playing a more significant role in balancing market supply and demand, further solidifying the foundation for the yuan's stability [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 216,000, the lowest level since April 2025, below the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000 [14] - The U.S. dollar index showed a downward trend, closing at 99.57, down 0.237% [3][7] - Gold prices increased by 0.8%, closing at $4,163.76 per ounce, while silver rose by 3.63%, closing at $53.36 per ounce [7] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, S&P 500 up 0.69%, and Nasdaq up 0.8% [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.13%, with a total market turnover of HKD 207.08 billion [5] - A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [6] Sector Highlights - In the U.S. market, Nvidia shares rose by 1%, while Oracle increased by 4%, and Beyond Meat surged by 19% [4] - In Hong Kong, aerospace stocks led the gains, with China Eastern Airlines up nearly 7% and Air China up over 4% [5] - The CPO sector in A-shares saw significant gains, with Long光华芯 hitting the daily limit up [6] Economic Indicators - The UK budget report revealed a fiscal buffer of £22 billion, exceeding market expectations [14] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity has remained stable, with increasing consumer polarization [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a high point not seen in over a year, with both onshore and offshore RMB trading around 7.08 against the dollar, indicating a "double strong" trend between the RMB and the dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has shown resilience this year, with exports strengthening and a favorable international balance of payments, achieving a total foreign-related income and expenditure of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, a historical high for the same period [1] - There has been a net inflow of cross-border capital amounting to $119.7 billion, surpassing the level from the previous year, contributing to the RMB's strength [1] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by stable expectations in the foreign exchange market, particularly following the recent summit between the Chinese and US leaders, which has improved bilateral relations [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is anticipated to further support the RMB's strength [2] - The end of the year is traditionally a peak season for currency settlement, which is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the RMB [2] - The foreign exchange market in China has demonstrated resilience and vitality amid complex international conditions, with rational market expectations and orderly trading [2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Behavior - More enterprises are adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, and there is a steady improvement in risk management capabilities, which enhances the stability of the RMB [2] - The price mechanism is increasingly playing a role in balancing market supply and demand, further solidifying the foundation for a stable RMB exchange rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a high point not seen in over a year, with both onshore and offshore yuan rates rising to around 7.08, reflecting a "double strong" pattern against the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has shown resilience this year, with exports strengthening and a favorable international balance of payments, achieving a total foreign exchange balance of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, a historical high for the same period [1]. - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border capital, exceeding the level from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents has contributed to a stable and improving relationship, providing strong external support for the yuan's strength, with market expectations remaining stable [1]. - The trend of "selling high" by enterprises during exchange rate fluctuations has been observed, with a surplus of $80.9 billion in bank foreign exchange transactions in the first ten months, compared to a deficit of over $10 billion in the same period last year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is anticipated to further support the yuan's strength, alongside the traditional seasonal peak for currency settlement at year-end, which is expected to provide significant upward momentum for the yuan [2]. - The Chinese foreign exchange market has demonstrated strong resilience and vitality amid complex international conditions, with rational market expectations and orderly trading, suggesting a favorable outlook for the yuan to maintain stability or even appreciate in the near term [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 11 月 26 日 近期人民币为何全面走强？对 A 股有何影响？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1126） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入规模扩大，融资净流出但 ETF 逆势净流入，外 部美国经济数据及美联储官员密集鸽派表态下，美联储 12 月降息预期再度回 升，美元指数回落，我们构建的外资流出压力指标显示外资流出的压力已连续 5 个交易日缓解。往后看，在美联储降息预期和市场继续企稳回升背景下，外资成 交活跃度或有望回升。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金持续流入股票市场， 美联储降息不确定性增强——金 融市场流动性与监管动态周报 （1118）》 资料来源：Wind，招商证券 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 139.99↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 49 ...

Market Performance - The benchmark Sensex rebounded by 1,022.50 points or 1.21% to settle at 85,609.51, while Nifty increased by 320.50 points or 1.24% to end at 26,205.30, just 10 points shy of its all-time high [3][4] - In intra-day trade, Nifty surged 330.35 points or 1.27% to reach 26,215.15 [4] Investor Sentiment - Growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December, supported by recent US economic data indicating softening demand and cooling inflation, bolstered investor sentiment [7][10] - Increasing optimism regarding a potential truce between Russia and Ukraine also enhanced risk appetite among investors [9][10] Sector Performance - Market participation was broad-based, with metals, energy, and IT sectors leading the gains, while mid-cap and small-cap indices advanced over 1% [5][6] - Major gainers among Sensex firms included Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank, and Infosys, while Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints were laggards [4][6] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Foreign Institutional Investors purchased equities worth ₹785.32 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors bought stocks worth ₹3,912.47 crore [8] - The overall market sentiment improved globally, driven by expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker dollar [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and the existence of interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors in terms of risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D all showed increases. For example, Comex gold rose 0.76% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions remained unchanged compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold futures positions increased by 127.87%. Some inventories decreased, such as Comex gold inventory which decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D all increased. For instance, Comex silver rose 1.16% from the previous day and 2.39% from the previous week [5]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged compared to the previous week, while Shanghai silver futures positions increased by 13.23%. Some inventories decreased, like the explicit inventory which decreased by 0.74% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, dollar index, and other indicators showed certain changes [7]. - **Inflation**: US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index showed different degrees of changes compared to the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth indicators including GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls had corresponding changes [9]. - **Other Aspects**: There were also changes in data related to the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys. In addition, data on central bank gold reserves, risk - aversion attributes, and commodity attributes were also presented [9][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December 2025 to the range of 350 - 375 basis points is 82.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges in subsequent meetings also shows different trends [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and tight supply conditions, but high previous prices have suppressed demand, leading to a lack of upward momentum [1][2] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, with market focus shifting towards the long-term contract negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners as the year-end approaches [1] - Recent data shows a decline in domestic refined copper production over the past two months, suggesting that the tight supply situation may start to impact the smelting sector [1] Group 2 - There is an optimistic outlook for copper prices from New Lake Futures, citing that the production cuts from the Freeport Indonesia mine accident have exceeded market expectations, and demand in new consumption areas remains resilient [2] - The global copper supply and demand is expected to enter a substantial shortage by 2026, with copper prices likely to continue rising, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [2] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming release of the U.S. PCE data, which may influence market sentiment [2]