以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者就是轱辘慧 财经连环话 . 一图看懂财经万象。 今天一睁眼，慧慧直接被黄金闪瞎了眼！ ✨ 再加上俄乌局势僵持，大家发现，这世界风险根本停不下来。避险需求从 " 临时补货 " 变成了 " 长期囤货 " ，金价能不涨吗？ 2. 货币宽松：美联储"放水"，金价起飞 历史数据告诉我们， 美联储从紧缩变宽松，就是黄金牛市最有力的引擎！ 现在美国通胀回落、就业放缓，市场对 2026 年降息预期爆棚。 就在周三亚盘，现货黄金史上 第一次冲破了 4500 美元 / 盎司 的大关！白银更疯，年内涨了 140% ！ 看着这金灿灿的 K 线图，慧慧手里的小金豆 突然就不香了（因为买少了呜呜）。 但先别急着梭哈！在这场 " 黄金狂欢 " 背后，有些深层逻辑和 迫在眉睫的风险 ，慧慧必须给你们盘清楚！ 01 黄金大涨的三个"硬核原因" 1. 地缘紧张：世界很乱，黄金很"香" 这轮金价飙升，地缘紧张绝对是 " 神助攻 "。 那边泰柬冲突还没停，这边拉美又搞起 " 南方之矛 " 行动，美军战舰都开到委内瑞拉门口了。 美元利差收窄，资金寻找避风港，黄金的货币属性和对冲风险价值就凸显出来了，这可不是单一事件刺激 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.39%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.64%, the main contract of platinum closed up 4.51%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 7.65% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war - related risk aversion has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest - rate cuts [1]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as the US - Venezuela, Thailand - Cambodia, and Russia - Ukraine have increased [1]. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The US employment rebounded more than expected in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest - rate cut next year. The market currently expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible interest - rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen - energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak while silver will be strong, platinum will be strong while palladium will be weak; in the medium - term, they will oscillate at high levels; and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4505.40 per ounce, down $9.60 (- 0.21%) from the previous day and up $134.00 (3.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract was 1008.76 yuan per gram, down 5.92 yuan (- 0.58%) from the previous day and up 28.26 yuan (2.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The inventory of Comex gold was 1152 tons, down 13 tons (- 1.08%) from the previous week. The position of Comex gold was 471093 hands, up 52603 hands (12.57%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $71.88 per ounce, up $0.27 (0.37%) from the previous day and up $5.44 (8.18%) from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract was 17408.00 yuan per kilogram, down 201.00 yuan (- 1.14%) from the previous day and up 1887.00 yuan (12.16%) from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The total visible inventory was 42955 tons, up 15 tons (0.03%) from the previous day and up 147 tons (0.34%) from the previous week. The position of Comex silver was 152921 hands, down 1841 hands (- 1.19%) from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (- 2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum was 21 tons, up 1 ton (3.09%) from the previous day and up 1 ton (4.80%) from the previous week. The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 18095 hands, down 8736 hands (- 32.56%) from the previous day and down 33021 hands (- 20.68%) from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [10]. - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1821.00 per ounce, down $143.00 (- 7.28%) from the previous day and up $96.00 (5.57%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (- 8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The inventory of NYMEX palladium was 6 tons, with a 0.13% change from the previous day and a 3.49% change from the previous week. The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 21860 hands, up 186 hands (0.86%) from the previous day and up 492 hands (2.30%) from the previous week [10]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **US Monetary Policy - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The discount rate was 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value [12]. - **US Economic Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.51%, down 0.04 ( - 1.57%) from the previous day and down 0.03 ( - 1.18%) from the previous week. The US dollar index was 97.95, up 0.05 (0.05%) from the previous day and down 0.44 ( - 0.45%) from the previous week [12]. - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, down 0.30 percentage points from the previous value; the core CPI was 2.60%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous value [14]. - **Geopolitical and Market Index Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 76.81, with no change from the previous day and down 48.07 (- 38.49%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 13.47, down 0.53 (- 3.79%) from the previous day and down 4.15 (- 23.55%) from the previous week [15]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions from January 2026 to December 2027 are presented in a probability table, showing different probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each meeting [16].

Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including cautious sell, short - term rebound, and cautious buy [1][3][6] Core Views - The overall view is that the energy and chemical industry is facing complex situations with factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, and cost fluctuations influencing prices. Different commodities have different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having short - term rebound opportunities [1][3][6] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical uncertainties in South America, but in the off - season with supply surplus, overall bearish. - Main logic: Geopolitical issues in South America and the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers boost prices in the short - term. However, there is a supply surplus in the off - season, with OPEC+ in an expansion cycle, increasing global floating storage and in - transit crude, and rising US inventories [1][9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of SC [435 - 445] [11] LPG - Core view: Cautious sell. - Main logic: The cost side is under pressure as the long - term trend of crude oil is downward. Although there is some resilience in downstream chemical demand, inventories are still a concern [1][15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [16] L (Plastic) - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: Market sentiment is improving, leading to a short - term rebound. However, the fundamentals are weak with a high supply and low demand situation. There is also pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of L [6300 - 6500] [20] PP - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: It rebounds along with the chemical sector, but there is high inventory pressure in December. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [24] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of PP [6200 - 6400] [24] PVC - Core view: High inventory restricts the rebound space. - Main logic: Lanthanum carbonate price reduction leads to a short - term rebound. However, due to seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory, the long - term trend depends on inventory reduction [28] - Strategy: Take partial profits on long positions. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of V [4650 - 4800] [28] PTA - Core view: Consider buying on dips. - Main logic: Supply - side maintenance is in progress, and the short - term supply - demand balance is tight. However, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January. Downstream demand is good currently but expected to weaken [30] - Strategy: Focus on buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of TA [5060 - 5150] [31] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound but consider shorting on the rebound. - Main logic: Domestic production load is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. Although the valuation is low, there is a lack of upward drivers [33] - Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities on the rebound. Focus on the range of EG05 [2139 - 2179] [34] Methanol - Core view: Cautious about chasing long positions. - Main logic: Domestic production load is at a high level, and there is still supply pressure in December. The demand side is slightly weakening [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips [39] Urea - Core view: Range - bound oscillation. - Main logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase in December, while the winter storage has limited positive effects. There is still an arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets [41] - Strategy: Expect a weakening oscillation. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of UR05 [1710 - 1745] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: Supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. - Main logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Focus on the range of NG [3.602 - 4.054] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Short - term rebound due to South American geopolitical conflicts. - Main logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term rebound is due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but the supply - demand situation is weak [50] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [51] Glass - Core view: Rebound at a low level. - Main logic: Cold repair is increasing, and the daily melting volume is decreasing. High inventory restricts the short - term rebound. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1070] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Weak oscillation. - Main logic: Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. There is a plan to put into production a large - scale device at the end of the month, and the demand from the real estate and glass industries is weak [59] - Strategy: Take partial profit on short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View - Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, while medium - to long - term concerns about oversupply remain. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range, and long - term investors should wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - **Fundamentals**: The US will focus on "blockading" Venezuelan oil in the next two months. CPC pipeline oil transportation in December is expected to drop by one - third. Venezuelan state - owned oil company's inventory increases due to US ship seizures [3]. - **Basis**: On December 24, Oman crude spot price was $62.77/barrel, Qatar Marine crude spot price was $61.95/barrel, with a basis of 16.98 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19. US EIA inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.742 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of December 24 [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of December 9, WTI crude oil main position was long and increased; as of December 16, Brent crude oil main position was long and decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: During the Christmas holiday, the external market was closed. Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, but medium - to long - term oversupply concerns remain. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US will focus on economic sanctions against Venezuelan oil in the next two months. Venezuela may face an economic disaster by mid - January next year if it does not make concessions to the US [5]. - Russia will seek key revisions to the latest US - Ukraine peace plan for Ukraine, including more restrictions on Kiev's military capabilities [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Not provided clearly. - **Likely to Fall**: Middle East situation eases [6]. - **Driving Factors**: Short - term waiting for geopolitical positive factors, medium - to long - term facing the risk of oversupply [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price rose from $61.58 to $61.87, an increase of 0.47%. WTI crude oil rose from $58.01 to $58.38, an increase of 0.64%. SC crude oil rose from 432.6 to 441.7, an increase of 2.10%. Oman crude oil rose from $60.16 to $61.47, an increase of 2.18% [8]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd rose from $62.81 to $63.23, an increase of 0.67%. WTI was $0.00, a decrease of 100.00%. Oman crude oil rose from $61.75 to $62.33, an increase of 0.94%. Shengli crude oil rose from $56.59 to $57.92, an increase of 2.35%. Dubai crude oil rose from $61.57 to $62.22, an increase of 1.06% [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **API Inventory**: In the week ending December 19, it increased by 2.391 million barrels [3][11]. - **EIA Inventory**: In the week ending December 12, it decreased by 1.274 million barrels [3][14]. - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of December 9, it was 58,433, an increase of 7,396 [17]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of December 16, it was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching over $4,500 per ounce, is primarily driven by the ongoing restructuring of global monetary credit and rising U.S. debt risks, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets and a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 24, spot gold prices hit a record high of $4,511.504 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 71% [2]. - The COMEX gold price also reached $4,549.3 per ounce, indicating strong market performance [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting increases of 8 to 44 yuan per gram compared to previous days [2]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The primary support for gold prices stems from the persistent rise in U.S. debt risks and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, which diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated assets [3][4]. - Experts suggest that the ongoing U.S. interest rate cuts will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its attractiveness compared to cash and bonds, especially in a high inflation environment [3][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite some investors exiting the gold market, many institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term value, citing strong demand from central banks in countries like China and India [4][5]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic uncertainties continue to bolster gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of further price increases [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing U.S. rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts will support gold's long-term investment appeal, despite short-term trading risks [6].

面对不断突破想象的黄金"牛市"，投资者应如何看待？ 行至年末，黄金、白银开启强势单边上涨模式，价格双双再创新高。 12月24日，伦敦现货黄金有史以来首次站上4500美元/盎司；伦敦现货白银自12月23日站上70美元/盎司 后，24日一举突破72美元/盎司，同样刷新历史纪录。今年以来，国际金价累计涨幅超70%，银价暴涨 约150%。在外盘带动下，国内金价同步突破关键大关，上海黄金交易所现货黄金(Au99.99)价格在12月 23日突破1000元/克后继续走高。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，美国与委内瑞拉的地缘关系调 整、伊朗与以色列的潜在冲突、俄乌冲突的不确定性，以及美元疲软和美联储降息预期升温等多重因 素，合力为金价、银价提供上涨动能。 消息面上，当地时间12月23日，美国总统特朗普表示，任何不同意他观点的人永远不会成为美联储主 席。希望新任主席在市场表现良好的情况下降低利率。 对此，五矿期货贵金属研究员钟俊轩对上海证券报记者表示，市场对新任美联储主席"鸽派"预期增强， 国际银价显著受益。 此外，在白银现货供需层面，白银ETF的持仓量趋势性增加。外盘最大的iShares白银E ...

| E 1 3/4 1 . | | | --- | --- | | - | | | 3 D | | | D | | | 1 | œ | | 1 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的闲 置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应收 紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 她缘政治风险仍在持续，进一步推高原油成本,并带动燃料油价格上行 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals market, focusing on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, in the context of geopolitical risks and economic policies, particularly under the Trump 2.0 administration [1][4][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to rise due to inflation expectations and economic stagnation driven by the Trump 2.0 policy, which includes reciprocal tariffs [1][4]. - The demand for gold jewelry is declining due to high prices, while central bank purchases are slowing down. However, ETF investments are becoming a significant support factor for gold demand [5][6]. - The new gold tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses, increasing the tax burden on jewelry, which is likely to reduce domestic jewelry consumption in the upcoming quarters [6]. Silver Market - The silver market has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with expectations for a seventh year of supply shortfall in 2025. This is supported by increased ETF investments and insufficient inventory liquidity, which is driving up silver prices [7]. - The fundamental strength of silver contrasts with gold, which is more influenced by macroeconomic factors [7]. Platinum and Palladium - Both platinum and palladium are experiencing supply deficits, with platinum facing a more severe situation. Platinum's demand is diversified, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, giving it more upward price elasticity compared to palladium [8][10]. Economic Policies and Predictions - The U.S. government may implement loose monetary and fiscal policies ahead of the midterm elections in 2026, which could further boost gold prices [11]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy impact on gold prices is diminishing, with geopolitical risks and U.S. debt issues becoming more significant factors in gold pricing logic [2][15]. Future Price Predictions - Gold prices are projected to range between $3,900 and $4,800 per ounce in 2026, with an average price expected to reach around $4,500 per ounce [15]. - Silver prices could reach between $56 and $64 per ounce, depending on the gold price trajectory [16]. Additional Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will significantly influence future gold prices. A resolution to this conflict could lower geopolitical risk but may not prevent inflation expectations from rising [13]. - The long-term target for gold could reach $6,000 per ounce, although achieving this in the short term remains uncertain [18]. - The copper market is also discussed, highlighting supply constraints and the impact of U.S. tariffs on copper prices, with expectations of a supply gap in 2026 [19][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the precious metals market and the broader economic context influencing these trends.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [4]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, with a current price of 4143.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 212 CNY/ton (8.06%) and a year-on-year drop of 363 CNY/ton (4.87%) [9][10]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, showing a month-on-month decrease of 460 million cubic meters (1.30%) but a year-on-year increase of 472 million cubic meters (1.37%) [2][18]. - European natural gas imports in November increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, totaling 176,299.99 million cubic meters, which is a month-on-month increase of 7,244.29 million cubic meters (4.29%) and a year-on-year increase of 12,477.26 million cubic meters (7.62%) [3][27]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased to 4143.00 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decline of 8.06% and a year-on-year decline of 4.87% [9][10]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures price has decreased to 4.04 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.94% [9][10]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in November was 589,350.00 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12,090.00 tons (2.01%) [2][18]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.30% but a year-on-year increase of 1.37% [2][18]. Inventory - As of December 12, U.S. LNG/LPG inventory was 179,263.00 thousand barrels, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16,782.00 thousand barrels (8.56%) but a year-on-year increase of 24,727 thousand barrels (16.00%) [20][23]. - European natural gas inventory as of December 15 was 79.129 billion kWh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 14.488 billion kWh (15.48%) and a year-on-year decrease of 10.299 billion kWh (11.52%) [22][25]. Imports and Exports - In November, European imports of natural gas increased to 176,299.99 million cubic meters, a month-on-month increase of 4.29% and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [3][27]. - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe in November were 10,745.70 million cubic meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 46.04% [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose to a high level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.63%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 8.12%, the main contract of platinum closed up 7%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.99% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk - aversion sentiment from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in regions such as the US - Venezuela, Thailand - Cambodia, and Russia - Ukraine has increased [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The US employment rebounded more than expected in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. The market currently expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: International prices (Comex Gold active contract and London Gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. For example, the Comex Gold active contract closed at $4515.00 per ounce, up 0.77% from the previous day and 4.22% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex Gold and Gold T + D increased, while the position of Shanghai Gold main contract decreased. In terms of inventory, the LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex Gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased slightly [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: International prices (Comex Silver active contract and London Silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. For example, the Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,609 yuan per kilogram, up 7.10% from the previous day and 13.52% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The position of Shanghai Silver main contract increased, while the positions of Comex Silver and Silver T + D decreased. The total visible inventory increased slightly [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Platinum active contract and London Platinum) and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on GQEX and Platinum on SGE) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2343.20 per ounce, up 9.04% from the previous day and 25.02% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Palladium active contract and London Palladium) and domestic prices (Palladium main contract on GQEX) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1964.00 per ounce, up 5.56% from the previous day and 18.14% from the previous week [10]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract increased, and the inventory remained basically unchanged [10]. Key Data of Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets remained unchanged at $66077.29 billion [12]. - Inflation data: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, the core CPI was 2.60%, etc. [14]. - Economic growth data: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.30% [14]. - Labor market data: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, and the non - farm payrolls monthly change was 6.40 million [14]. - Other data: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 68.60%, and the VIX index decreased by 15.05% [15]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided. For example, in January 2026, the probability of the interest rate being in the range of 350 - 375 is 86.7% [16].