2026：更高的期待？20251230 摘要 市场预期美联储降息次数减少，从三次至五次调整为两到三次，美元指 数年初至今已贬值 10%，若去美元逻辑持续，或将进一步下探，但需关 注欧元、日元等货币政策的影响。 特朗普二次当选及其政策，叠加美国国会中期选举，将对全球地缘政治、 经济和金融产生不确定性影响，投资者需密切关注中美经贸关系及关税 政策变化。 中国经济在不确定性中寻求确定性，出口业务和科技自立自强是发展重 心，财政与货币政策协同配合将持续，但需警惕经济节奏、通胀形态及 政策力度变化带来的风险。 2025 年人民币资产风险偏好提升，10 年期国债收益率上升近 20 个基 点，科创 50、北京 50、创业板指数均有显著收益，人民币升值约 4%，全球主要风险资产普遍实现两位数以上收益。 人民币近期快速升值主要受美元走弱、企业结汇意愿增强及市场情绪催 化影响，未来一年人民币升值大方向不变，但需关注美元走势及央行干 预。 Q&A 对于 2026 年市场的展望有哪些主要考虑因素？ 展望 2026 年，首先需要关注的是美联储的降息预期。尽管市场普遍预计美联 储将继续降息，但降息幅度可能会较今年有所收敛。去年年底和今年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the appreciation of the RMB against the USD is seen as a sign of China's strength, while its depreciation against the Euro raises questions about the motives behind the pressure from the West [1][3] - Major investment banks suggest that if the RMB does not appreciate, it could disrupt global balance, reminiscent of the Plaza Accord from 40 years ago [5][6] - The strategy of competitive devaluation by the West aims to make the USD and Euro cheaper, forcing the RMB to appreciate, which could harm China's export competitiveness [6][8] Group 2 - Despite the RMB's appreciation against the USD, it has depreciated against the Euro, leading to a dual exchange rate scenario that allows Chinese companies to pivot their exports towards Europe and ASEAN [12][14] - Data shows that from January to November 2025, China's exports to the US decreased by nearly 19%, while exports to the EU increased by 8.1%, indicating a shift in market focus [14][23] - The Chinese government has intervened to prevent price wars and encouraged companies to raise prices, allowing them to recover losses from currency fluctuations [18][19] Group 3 - The situation highlights a struggle for global pricing power, with the Chinese government taking a strong stance against price cuts [19][21] - Despite Western pressures, Chinese manufacturers are finding ways to maintain their market presence and profitability, as evidenced by a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion [23][25] - The US and Europe are increasingly reliant on Chinese goods, as they face challenges in rebuilding their own supply chains, leading to a paradox where they need Chinese products despite imposing tariffs [21][27] Group 4 - China holds significant advantages, including a complete industrial supply chain, substantial foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, and the accelerating internationalization of the RMB [27][29][31] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of stable exchange rates that serve the real economy rather than merely showcasing national strength [31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, breaking the 7.0 mark and reaching a 15-month high, is attributed to both external factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar, and internal economic resilience in China [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The US dollar has weakened significantly, with the dollar index dropping from 110 to 98, a nearly 10% decline within the year, which has contributed to the yuan's rise [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's actions, including three interest rate cuts and monthly purchases of $40 billion in US Treasury bonds, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting global capital to seek alternatives [5]. Group 2: Internal Factors - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a turnaround in export growth and a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months, which has bolstered foreign exchange inflows [7]. - The influx of foreign capital into Chinese assets has surged, with overseas holdings of yuan-denominated assets surpassing 10 trillion, providing substantial support for the yuan's appreciation [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts are divided on whether the yuan can consistently enter the "6" range, with some predicting a rise to 6.2-6.3, while others caution against expecting a one-sided trend, emphasizing the importance of maintaining exchange rate stability [11]. - The yuan's trajectory in 2026 will be influenced by key variables such as the economic disparity between China and the US, the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of yuan assets, and Sino-US trade relations [13].

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 核心结论 分析师 【策略】资产的信号（20251230）：人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机 短期看，大量的待结汇资金和跨境资本有望随人民币升值加速结汇/回流， 强化人民币升值趋势，中长期看，中国强大的工业实力带来的出口竞争力是 人民币升值的根本动力。跨境资本回流叠加化债政策空间打开，实体现金流 量表和资产负债表有望依次修复，2026 年中国有望迎来繁荣的起点。大类 资产继续坚定看好 AH 股/国债等人民币资产，黄金保持战略配置，但对投机 交易保持谨慎，工业金属关注铜、铝、镍等品种，美股&美债或维持震荡。 【银行】寰宇通汇系列八：数字人民币将实现 M0 向 M1 的重要跨越 央行出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建 设的行动方案》，宣布新一代数字人民币体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启 动实施。该方案从机制上明确数字人民币将实现 M0 向 M1 的跨越，同时坚 持"全局一本账"的双层运营架构，未来或有望实现全国统一的管理服务体 系，对银行业和金融科技领域均产生影响。 【医药生物】和誉-B（2256.HK）近况更新：匹 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 在离岸人民币强劲升值的背景下，周二两市主要指数低开震荡上行后波动，机器人 | | | | | 板块领涨 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a rare ten consecutive days of gains, although it closed slightly down, indicating a highly structured market where different investors have vastly different experiences [1][11] - The commercial aerospace and robotics sectors are currently generating significant excitement among investors, driven by new policies that support the commercialization of rocket companies [2][12] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The introduction of the "Fifth Set of Listing Standards for Commercial Rocket Enterprises" aims to accelerate the listing of key rocket companies, further fueling market enthusiasm [2][13] - The market is currently valuing commercial aerospace ventures based on future potential rather than current earnings, creating a speculative environment [2][13] Group 3: Solar Energy Sector - The "space solar power" market is projected to reach a trillion-dollar scale, with calculations based on the deployment of 100,000 satellites and additional space capabilities planned by companies like SpaceX [3][14] - A potential threefold increase in market value is anticipated, based on projected revenues from satellite launches and associated profit margins [3][14] Group 4: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is seeing various developments, including potential contracts with Tesla and discussions around regulatory measures for robotics [4][16] - Speculative narratives are emerging, such as the idea of sending humanoid robots into space, reflecting the sector's imaginative potential [4][16] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index has shown slight growth in the second half of the year, but the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a maximum drawdown of 20% since October, indicating a mixed performance [6][18] - Three main factors affecting the Hong Kong market include reduced capital inflow, valuation adjustments, and disappointing earnings from major companies [19][20] Group 6: Future Outlook - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan is seen as a key variable that could enhance foreign investment in Chinese assets, potentially benefiting the Hong Kong market [21] - There is cautious optimism regarding the pharmaceutical sector, with expectations for increased overseas business development in the coming months [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed trends in metal prices, highlighting the impact of economic indicators and government policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals, stock indices, and copper [2][3][20]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized the need for technological advancements in agriculture and efficient application of scientific achievements [1]. - The State Council announced the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law from January 1, 2026, with a focus on four main categories of national subsidies [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a digital transformation plan for the automotive industry, aiming to enhance key technology products and encourage the use of self-controlled technology [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Silver has shown signs of recovery, supported by a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.7% in November, which is below the anticipated 3.1% [2][20]. - The U.S. labor market data showed a mixed picture, with 64,000 new jobs added, exceeding the forecast of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][20]. - The overall downward trend in CPI provides room for potential interest rate cuts, which could support precious metal prices in the long term [2][20]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with significant trading activity in the oil and petrochemical sectors [3][12]. - The financing balance increased by 8.38 billion yuan to 25.348 trillion yuan, indicating a potential influx of capital into the market [3][12]. - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to attract foreign capital back into Chinese assets, reinforcing a long-term bullish trend in A-shares [3][12]. Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices rose by 1.15% in the night session, driven by tight supply conditions and fluctuating smelting profits [4][21]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable electricity investment and positive growth in automotive production, while the real estate sector remains weak [4][21]. - Market sentiment is influencing short-term copper prices, with a focus on changes in the dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [4][21]. Group 5: Other Commodities - The article also touches on various other commodities, including oil, methanol, rubber, and agricultural products, indicating a mixed outlook based on supply and demand dynamics [15][19][28][30].

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiuqi Co., Ltd. (300994), is strategically expanding its electric bicycle (E-BIKE) production capacity despite current lower profit margins, aiming to capture future growth opportunities and establish a second growth curve [1] Group 1: Electric Bicycle Expansion - The management's decision to expand E-BIKE production is based on deep insights into industry trends and long-term strategic considerations, focusing on future growth rather than current profit margins [1] - The company plans to increase the sales ratio of electric bicycles, which currently accounts for 10% of total sales, although specific future targets were not disclosed [1] - The application of solid-state batteries in E-BIKES is being explored to address safety concerns associated with traditional lithium batteries and enhance user experience [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - A significant increase in contract liabilities is attributed to the recovery of overseas market demand, capacity expansion to fulfill orders, and enhanced product competitiveness [1] - The company is actively managing foreign exchange risks due to the appreciation of the RMB through various strategies, including optimizing settlement methods and product upgrades [1] - The official opening of Hainan is expected to facilitate trade and optimize the company's international supply chain operations, leveraging local financial and tax environments to enhance overall operations [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Information - On December 30, the stock closed at 15.81 yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.13%, and a trading volume of 19,900 shares, amounting to a turnover of 31.47 million yuan [1] - The net inflow of main funds was 1.4073 million yuan, indicating a positive short-term sentiment from major investors [1]

从今年11月份开始，一直到现在12月底将近两个月的时间里，人民币对外币值一直呈现出明显上升的趋势，现在人民币兑换美元的汇率已经顶破了7的天花 板，并且还在往上升。普通人下意识觉得人民币升值是好事，这代表我们的钱更值钱了，可一些略懂经济规律的人却发现，人民币升值会带来较为严重的经 济后果。 在人民币升值的情况下，中国制造商们的生产成本会显著提升，利润空间会被压缩，为了在市场上谋生存，他们只能提升价格，这就导致中国出口的物美价 廉的商品正在逐渐减少，我们的市场竞争力有一定程度上的消散。所以显而易见，人民币升值其实是欧美国家联合使用货币手段给中国制造的阴谋。 他们发现，凭借着正大光明的竞争方式，他们的产品正在被市场边缘化，因为质量不够硬，或者售后服务不够完善，再或者价格上不占优势，他们所引以为 傲的市场份额正在逐渐被中国商品挤占。更重要的是，他们发现自己对中国制造产品的依赖程度正在与日俱增，为了摆脱中国带来的影响，他们急于使本国 经济金融与中国脱钩。 既然硬碰硬比不过，西方国家便耍起了手段，通过竞争性贬值的方式使本国货币相对人民币贬值，人民币相对升值。这样一来，中国出口的产品价格提升， 那些急于购买性价比高的产品的 ...