Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is expected to experience increased differentiation, with companies facing challenges in maintaining performance growth while ensuring healthy distribution channels. The overall financial performance of the sector is anticipated to remain under pressure in 2025, with solid companies likely to achieve stable growth, while weaker companies may continue to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) rose by 0.05%, with key stocks such as Proya (603605) increasing by 2.69% and XinNuoWei (300765) by 1.96% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) increased by 0.13%, with a latest price of 0.78 yuan and a turnover rate of 4% during the trading session, amounting to 3.36 million yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the Major Consumer ETF was 5.69 million yuan [1]. Group 2: White Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor industry is expected to show resilience over the long term, benefiting from economic recovery and increased consumption due to stimulus policies [2]. - The differentiation within the white liquor sector is projected to intensify, with companies needing to navigate performance challenges while maintaining healthy distribution channels [1][2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Major Consumer ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.56 million yuan in scale over the past two weeks, ranking in the top fifth among comparable funds [2]. - Since its inception, the Major Consumer ETF has recorded a highest single-month return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 5.36% [2]. - As of May 12, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [3]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Major Consumer ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the Major Consumer ETF over the past month was 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Top Holdings - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 20.15, which is at a historical low, being below 89.64% of the time over the past year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index accounted for 67.16% of the index, including major players like Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5].

截至05月13日10:51，中证银行ETF（512730.SH）上涨1.11%，其关联指数中证银行（399986.SZ）上涨 1.12%；主要成分股中，招商银行上涨1.16%，浦发银行上涨2.56%，农业银行上涨1.81%，工商银行上 涨1.12%，江苏银行上涨1.69%。 消息面上，银行股再度走强，浦发银行、上海银行、江苏银行股价创历史新高，重庆银行、中信银行创 年内新高，青农商行、苏州银行等跟涨。成分股中浦发银行领涨带动中证银行ETF上行，市场对银行板 块估值修复预期升温。 招商银行（600036）、兴业银行（601166）、工商银行（601398）、交通银行（601328）、农业银行 （601288）、江苏银行（600919）、浦发银行（600000）、中国银行（601988）、平安银行 （000001）、上海银行（601229） 券商研究方面，开源证券在近期银行业点评报告中指出，公募基金改革背景下银行板块配置价值凸显， 维持行业"看好"评级，认为存贷协调发展和"量价"渐趋平衡将改善银行基本面；华西证券则在市场复盘 中提及，当前银行板块估值处于历史低位，部分机构投资者已开始增配高股息属性的银行股。两家机 ...

南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉表示，这次的券商回购潮是政策引导与市场自发行为的结合，短期 内将有效稳定市场信心，长期效果则需要依赖经济基本面的修复与政策的持续发力，投资者短期可以关 注券商板块的估值修复机会。 盘古智库（北京）信息咨询有限公司高级研究员余丰慧表示， 券商积极回购股份，能够传递出公司对 自身发展的坚定信心，向外界释放有力的积极信号，尤其是在波动的市场环境中为投资者注入信心，助 力市场健康平稳运行。 5月9日晚间，红塔证券发布公告称，公司收到董事长景峰的函件，提议进行股份回购注销，以优化资本 结构并提升股东价值。今年以来，A股证券板块已有多家公司提出回购计划。Wind数据显示， 截至5月 11日，今年共有359家上市公司开展回购增持再贷款，其中265家用于股票回购，回购贷款金额上限合计 已达469亿元。 消息面上，4月8日，国务院国资委表示，全力支持央企控股上市公司不断加大增持回购力度。随后，以 央企国企为主的证券公司开始陆续酝酿回购方案。 国金证券、国泰海通、国投资本（国投证券母公司）、财通证券、中泰证券、东方证券扎堆推出回购计 划。从整体来看，按回购上限测算，上述6家券商回购金额合计高达38 ...

Core Insights - The current Chinese liquor industry is characterized by a "volume decrease and price increase" trend, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye seeing revenue and net profit growth despite a decline in overall industry production [3] - The competition in the liquor market is shifting towards brand value, with a notable "volume-price divergence" becoming the new norm, as consumer demand for premium and aged liquors rises while smaller brands struggle [3] - Regional liquor companies such as Gujinggongjiu and Jinshiyuan have successfully navigated the market by focusing on local markets and transforming into business consumption models, achieving growth and entering the billion-yuan club [3] Industry Trends - The trend of "light drinking" among younger consumers poses challenges for traditional liquor companies, which need to adapt by enhancing offline channels and addressing issues related to product shelf life and profit margins [4] - The phenomenon of "liquor financialization" is viewed as a superficial trend rather than a fundamental industry shift, with larger companies leveraging cultural elements to enhance brand value while smaller companies may face risks if they pursue this direction [4] - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a valuation correction, with stock prices near historical lows, making leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye suitable for long-term investment due to their strong cash flow and dividends [4] Recommendations for Small and Medium Enterprises - Small and medium-sized liquor companies are advised to focus on regional markets to establish dominance, transform into specialty wineries, and shorten the distance to consumers through direct engagement strategies like live streaming and private domain operations [3] - The example of Shui Jing Fang is highlighted as a promising player in the next-tier premium segment, leveraging cultural experiences and scarcity to strengthen brand recognition [4]

当地时间5月10日下午，印巴停火协议正式生效，冲突期间巴基斯坦空军战果丰硕。据悉，巴基斯坦为 我国主要武器装备出口国。此外，5月11日，人民日报刊文《加快解放和发展新质战斗力》。 智通财经APP获悉，华泰证券指出，军工上游信息化、新材料等上游领域的部分标的在需求、订单甚至 业绩层面已出现明显好转迹象，或表明军工板块基本面已进入反弹阶段。我们维持"一主两率"投资框 架，建议关注信息化、新材料、航空发动机、新质新域方向。 开源证券此前发布研报称，全球军事力量再平衡将给资本市场带来更多的不确定性，资产的"地缘风险 溢价"或导致军工股避险属性的估值重估。华福证券则表示，再次强调军工具备超强内贸属性，且国际 形势对我国军工强实力的验证或为军贸奠定长逻辑基础，25-27年在多重催化下内需外需均增长幅度巨 大，发展军工或为未来重中之重。 军工板块相关港股： 中信证券研报称，自4月下旬克什米尔枪击事件发生以来，印巴边境局势持续升温。 回顾历史，双方关于克什米尔的领土争端由来已久，冲突时有发生，但通常能较快平息。 着眼当下，印巴虽展现强硬姿态，但或均无意扩大冲突，其他国家也积极呼吁双方保持克制。 展望后续，短期内，印巴紧张态势 ...

医药｜盈利能力改善，优选创新龙头 20250509 摘要 • 2024 年生物制药板块收入企稳回升，但利润承压；化学制剂板块降本增 效显著，剔除不可比公司后 A 股营收同比增长 5%，扣非净利润增长 24%，主要受益于创新品种放量和 BD 里程碑收入。 • 创新药企业进入高速发展收获期，样本医院数据显示收入同比增速达 60%，2019-2024 年药品注册证书数量显著增加，头部企业运营效率提 升，Biotech 公司业绩加速放量，规模效应显现，盈利能力改善。 • 2025 年一季度，医药基金及非医药基金对化学制剂及其他生物制剂重仓 显著增加，创新药公司受关注度提升，医药板块整体估值虽有修复，但仍 处于近几年底部，存在投资机会。 • 2025 年一季度，甘李药业胰岛素产品提价，净利润同比增长 100%，通 化东宝降价，净利润下滑 49%，主要受新一轮胰岛素集采续约影响，国产 胰岛素企业报价积极。 • 2025 年一季度，荣昌生物、君实等创新药及生物制剂公司亏损收窄，核 心产品上市加速盈利能力提升，预计未来三年内将呈现良好发展趋势。 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年一季度医药板块的整体盈利情况如何？ 根据 2 ...

Group 1 - Apple concept stocks have shown significant gains, with Sunny Optical (02382) up 6.13% to HKD 68.35, AAC Technologies (02018) up 5.44% to HKD 38.75, BYD Electronics (00285) up 5.7% to HKD 35.25, GoerTek (01415) up 4.33% to HKD 22.9, and Q Technology (01478) up 4.48% to HKD 6.76 [1] - A significant consensus has been reached between China and the US, with both sides agreeing to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on May 12 [1] - According to Cinda Securities, high-quality domestic consumer electronics stocks have seen substantial corrections since the imposition of tariff policies, indicating a potential for valuation recovery if tariffs do not develop irrationally [1] Group 2 - The upcoming "618" e-commerce promotion event has led to a price reduction for the Apple iPhone, with the iPhone 16 Pro 128GB version being offered at a discounted price of RMB 5499 after various promotions [2] - The iPhone 16 Pro 128GB version has reportedly sold out on the Apple Store official flagship store shortly after the price reduction announcement [2]

建筑装饰 LPR 下调 10BP，流动性宽松助力项目推进 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250506-20250509） 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 11 日 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.99%，沪深 300 指数+2.00%，相对收益为-0.02pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 装饰幕墙（+7.25%）、生态园林（+5.94%）、基建民企（+4.84%）， 对应行业内三个公司：创兴资源（+21.55%）、ST 花王（+19.7 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a trend of decreasing volume but increasing prices, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing revenue and net profit growth despite a decline in overall industry production [2][5][13] - Brand building has become crucial for all liquor companies, especially for small and medium enterprises, which can seek growth through regional market focus, transforming into specialty wineries, and enhancing consumer interaction [2][5][16] - The rise of low-alcohol and fruit wines poses challenges for traditional liquor companies, which must prioritize product quality and innovation to adapt to changing consumer preferences [2][22][25] Industry Trends - The overall production capacity of the liquor industry has been declining, with current capacity at about 30% of its peak in 2016, reflecting a shift in consumer preference towards premium and aged liquors [5][6][8] - The competition is increasingly characterized by a "survival of the fittest" dynamic, where leading brands grow at the expense of smaller players, leading to a phenomenon described as "this consumes that" [5][13] - The market is witnessing a bifurcation where high-end brands are facing price adjustments, with Moutai's actual transaction price dropping nearly 30% from its peak [14][29] Company Strategies - Companies like Gujinggong and Jinshiyuan have benefited from the industry's increasing concentration and have successfully leveraged regional economic growth to enhance their market positions [16][17] - Watering brands like Shui Jing Fang are focusing on brand building and product quality, positioning themselves well in the competitive landscape [19] - Small liquor companies are encouraged to either dominate a specific regional market or transform into local wineries that resonate with community sentiments, potentially leading to profitable operations [20][21] Consumer Behavior - Consumers increasingly demand specific brands when purchasing liquor, indicating a strong brand loyalty that drives market dynamics [12][19] - The perception of liquor as a premium product has led to a decline in the acceptance of non-branded or lower-quality offerings, emphasizing the importance of brand reputation [6][8][12] - The younger generation's shift towards lighter alcoholic beverages and fruit wines presents both a challenge and an opportunity for traditional liquor companies to innovate and adapt [22][23][25] Investment Outlook - The liquor sector is currently undergoing a valuation correction after a period of rapid growth, with investors advised to approach the market with a rational mindset based on their investment goals [27][29] - The potential for mergers and acquisitions in the liquor industry remains high, with significant interest in brands that can demonstrate strong growth potential [28][29] - The evolving economic landscape and changing consumer preferences necessitate a careful evaluation of investment strategies within the liquor sector [28][29]