聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LL: In May, maintenance increases and imports decrease. If the exemption of ethane imports weakens the expectation of supply reduction, attention should be paid to the demand situation after May. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is still large, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term pattern [4]. - PP: In the second quarter, the peak maintenance season eases the supply pressure slightly, but the output is still high. The demand has bottom support but is gradually weakening. The long - term pattern is weak, and there is a downward risk [4]. Styrene Industry - The market price of pure benzene continues to decline. The raw material trend is weak, and the downstream styrene futures are also weak. The supply of pure benzene has returned, and there is no sign of improvement. The styrene market is weakly volatile, and there is supply pressure in May. In the medium term, due to the impact of tariffs, there is price pressure on styrene. The strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations, with the upper resistance line at 7300 [11]. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term trading may be stronger, and the strategy is to focus on expanding the low - level spread of PX - SC. - PTA: The supply and demand drive becomes stronger, and the price support is relatively strong. The strategy is to wait and see before the festival, and treat TA9 - 1 as a short - term positive spread and a medium - term reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate in May. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate between 4050 - 4300. - Short - fiber: The rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly adjusted by shock before the festival. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of PFO6 below 900. - Bottle chips: The output is expected to be high, and the relative price follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and the main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The short - term supply and demand improve marginally, but the long - term expectation is weak. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and mainly go short in the medium - term for the 09 contract. - PVC: The start - up rate increases slightly, and the social inventory continues to decline seasonally. The demand is average, and there are problems in exports. The short - term operation should be cautious, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations [24]. Urea Industry - The main problem is the poor connection between supply and demand under the background of high supply. The supply pressure is increasing. The demand shows structural differentiation. The main contract 2509 may have a small rebound after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and take a short - selling strategy on rallies after the festival if there is a small rebound and no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. The option strategy is to buy and expand the spread in the short - term [30][31]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price was weakly running, pressured by macro - pressure and supply - side easing expectations. If the consumption end fails to replenish stocks in May, the downward channel of the market may further open. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The volatility ranges are given as [59, 69] for WTI, [62, 72] for Brent, and [460, 520] for SC. The option strategy is to focus on increasing volatility [49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry PE and PP Prices and Spreads - L2505, L2509, PP2505, PP2509 closing prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with the largest decline of - 0.59% for L2509. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed, such as the spread of L2505 - 2509 increased by 5.82% [1]. PE and PP Non - standard Prices - The price of East China LDPE increased by 1.09% to 9250 yuan/ton, while the prices of other non - standard products such as East China HD film and PP injection showed different degrees of change [2]. PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories - PE device operating rate decreased slightly by 0.07% to 83.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly by 0.02% to 40.2%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.41% to 49.7 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.52% to 60.1 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.3% to 75.5%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 50.1%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.37% to 60.4 million tons [2][3]. Styrene Industry Styrene Upstream - Brent crude oil (June) and CFR Japan naphtha prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with decreases of - 2.4% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of other upstream products such as CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Korea benzene also changed [8]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The East China spot price of styrene decreased by - 0.2% to 7250 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of EB2505 and EB2506 also decreased slightly [9]. Styrene Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The overseas quotes of styrene remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the import profit was - 243 yuan/ton [10]. Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The domestic comprehensive operating rate of pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 71.1%, and the styrene operating rate increased by 1.7% to 67.9%. However, the operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS decreased. The profits of styrene integration and non - integration decreased significantly, while the profit of PS increased by 133.3% [11]. Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle chips showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28. The cash flows of some products also changed, such as the cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by - 35.6% [16]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of PX - related products such as CFR China PX and PX spot price (RMB) decreased slightly on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads also changed [16]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The PTA East China spot price decreased by - 1.0% to 4540 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of TA futures also changed, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [16]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG port inventory increased by 3.2% to 800,000 tons, and the expected arrival decreased by 37.8% to 122,000 tons on April 21 compared with April 28. The prices of MEG futures and the basis also changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - The operating rates of different links in the polyester industry chain such as Asian PX, PTA, and MEG showed different degrees of change on April 25 compared with April 18 [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the prices of other products such as Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda and PVC futures contracts changed [20]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 7.0% to 400 US dollars/ton on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit decreased significantly by - 125.8% [20]. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit increased by 90.5% [21]. Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates and Industry Profits - The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18. The profit of external - purchase calcium - carbide - based PVC remained unchanged, while the profit of Northwest integration decreased by 6.8% [22]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates - The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased on April 25 compared with April 18 [23]. Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates - The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as Longzhong sample pipes increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18, and the pre - sales volume also increased [24]. Chlor - alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 183,000 tons on April 24 compared with April 17, and the PVC total social inventory decreased by 4.7% to 421,000 tons [24]. Urea Industry Urea Futures Contracts - The prices of urea futures contracts such as 01, 05, and 09 decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [26]. Urea Upstream Raw Materials - The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and steam coal remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased by 3.21% [26]. Urea Spot Market Prices - The prices of urea in different regions such as Shandong and Henan showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different regions also changed [26]. Urea Downstream Products - The prices of urea downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the ratio of compound fertilizer to urea decreased by 1.10% [28]. Fertilizer Market - The prices of fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and phosphoric acid mono - ammonium showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28 [29]. Urea Supply and Demand Overview - The daily and weekly production of urea remained unchanged, and the factory inventory remained stable. The port inventory increased slightly. The demand showed structural differentiation, with industrial demand maintaining rigid procurement and agricultural fertilization not yet started [30]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices decreased on April 30 compared with April 29. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed, such as the spread of Brent M1 - M3 increased significantly by - 2050.00% [49]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil changed on April 30 compared with April 29, and the spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [49]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of refined oil products in different regions such as the US and Europe showed different degrees of change on April 30 compared with April 29 [49].

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures prices are maintaining low levels, with a slight increase observed in the spot market, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry amid seasonal demand fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Price and Market Activity - As of April 28, PVC futures price (V2509) closed at 4989 CNY/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 720,000 lots, an increase of 100,000 lots from the previous period, while open interest decreased by 30,000 lots to 910,000 lots [1] - In the East China region, the price of acetylene-based PVC is quoted between 4740 - 4860 CNY/ton, with traders experiencing sluggish sales and downstream manufacturers primarily purchasing based on essential needs at lower prices [1] Cost Factors - Recent maintenance of some acetylene production facilities has led to a rebound in acetylene prices, which reached 2500 CNY/ton in the Inner Mongolia region, an increase of 50 CNY/ton [1] Supply Dynamics - The operating rate of the PVC industry was reported at 78.63% as of April 25, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.28 percentage points, with weekly production at 459,400 tons, up by 7,500 tons, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The industry is experiencing a prolonged period of concentrated maintenance, with a slowdown in maintenance efforts [1] Demand Insights - A recent drop in PVC prices has stimulated some speculative demand, with pre-sale orders from PVC producers reaching 602,000 tons as of April 25, an increase of 6.02% [1] - As the May Day holiday approaches, expectations of increased downtime among downstream manufacturing enterprises are noted, with the comprehensive operating rate in downstream industries remaining stable at 48.16% [1] Export and Inventory Trends - Demand in the Indian market is reported to be decent, particularly in agriculture, while real estate demand remains weak, leading to a cautious purchasing stance among local buyers [1] - PVC social inventory has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, standing at 420,600 tons as of April 25, down 4.71% week-on-week and down 29.04% year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - With the May Day holiday approaching and the current spring construction peak season, the expected reduction in demand is limited, while supply is entering a seasonal reduction phase [1] - Despite high export volumes and continuous decline in social inventory, the overall fundamentals of the PVC market show marginal improvement, although macroeconomic and financial sentiment remains uncertain, leading to insufficient upward momentum [1]

期货研究报告|EB 周报 2025-04-27 纯苯加工费同期低位，下游开工仍偏低 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 苯乙烯观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 上游方面：本周国内纯苯开工率 71.12 %（0.72 %），国产开工仍处于偏低位，但 5 月 油化工整体开工回升；国内纯苯下游开工虽底部反弹，但 CPL 及苯胺仍处于开工偏低 位，苯乙烯开工仍等待回升，下游开工偏低。 纯苯华东港口库存 12.10 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [5] Core Views - **Market Analysis - Natural Rubber** - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season. At the beginning of tapping, the increase in raw materials is limited. The price of Thai latex has remained stable recently, but as production gradually increases, the raw material price is expected to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply**: In April, global natural rubber production was still at a low level for the year. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. With the expected increase in supply and the profit in Thai standard rubber processing, the expected increase in domestic arrivals remains. Overall, supply is showing a gradual upward trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the full - steel tire operating rate was 65.36% (-2.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.36% (-0.04%). The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year due to the increase in tire factory finished product inventory pressure. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [2]. - **Inventory**: This week, both the Qingdao port inventory and social inventory showed a slight downward trend. Year - on - year, the current inventory reduction is still less than in previous years. The recent decline is mainly due to the increase in tire factory purchases after the absolute price reached a low level [2]. - **Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber** - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 25, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber was 11,476 yuan/ton. This week, the butadiene price was firm, and due to the high raw material price, the production of butadiene rubber continued to incur losses [3]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 25, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 67.17% (+4.41%), and the output was 26,971 tons (+1,771). Under the loss situation, it is difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the later stage [3]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 25, the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the relatively high butadiene price year - on - year, the production of domestic butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state, and the loss has narrowed recently [3]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the upstream butadiene port inventory was 27,400 tons (+2,920), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory was 27,710 tons (0.09), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory was 3,610 tons (-760) [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [4]. Strategies - **RU and NR**: Currently, with the decline in raw material prices, the production profits of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires have improved. Coupled with the stocking demand for the May Day holiday, downstream tire factory purchases have increased, leading to a decline in domestic social inventory and Qingdao port inventory in the past week. However, tire factory orders have not improved, and the demand side provides limited support. Supply shows a seasonal upward trend, indicating that supply and demand are still weak. In the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff increases. If high tariffs are maintained, the drag on demand will continue. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. Against the background of uncertain overall market sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - **BR**: In May, upstream maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will show an upward trend later. The weak price of upstream butadiene has slightly improved the production profit of butadiene rubber, which is currently near the break - even point, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level. The demand side is affected by US tariff increases, and the expectation is poor. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. The actual domestic tire demand is still poor, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continues to decline. Currently, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the tire substitution demand still supports butadiene rubber. The upstream butadiene raw material price may be supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but due to good production profits, high port inventory, and increasing supply pressure later, butadiene still has downward pressure later. Supply and demand are weak, but the cost side and substitute spreads still provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply of crude oil has tightened and oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in asphalt prices. Shandong spot prices have slightly increased, and the futures market has strengthened slightly. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline, while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall inventory remaining relatively stable. The market is generally showing marginal improvement. [1] - The market in the north is tight, while in the east and south, it is relatively loose. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production scheduled for April. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak purchasing in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. [1] - It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant - end contracts such as the 09 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Review - Shandong spot prices have remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market has shown fluctuations, and crack spread profits are at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong have slightly increased. The daily production of asphalt is 6.3 (+0) million tons. [1] Price and Spread Data - The report presents price data for various asphalt - related items from March 27 to April 2, 2025, including prices of Shandong spot, asphalt futures, Korea's CIF price in East China, and Shandong coker feedstock, as well as data on spreads and basis. [1] - It also shows multiple seasonal charts of asphalt, such as basis seasonality for different contracts (06, 09, 12), 9 - 12 month spreads, refinery comprehensive costs for a certain type of asphalt, the ratio of Singapore asphalt to fuel oil, import profits in East China, and comparisons between coker feedstock, petroleum coke, and asphalt prices, as well as data on asphalt's operating rate, social inventory rate, and warehouse receipt seasonality. [1][2]