券商中国记者从渠道获悉，千亿私募景林资产管理合伙人、基金经理高云程近日发布2025年中给投资者的 一封信《拥有"城里最好的三个生意"》。 在信中，高云程表示："找到那个有好生意的城，找出最好的几个生意，长期拥有这些生意。"要把组合集中在 尽可能少的确定性机会上，大部分时候：少才能对，慢就是快。 他还表示，世界正在从单极变为多极， 中国资产应该获得世界的平视 。这个再平衡的过程，会给组合带来一 定的额外奖励。 拥有"城里最好的生意" "2025年上半年像看大片一样精彩和跌宕。" 高云程在信中称，大波动叠加结构性机会形成了上半年股票市场 的主基调。很多行业都出现了DeepSeek时刻。抓住新消费和创新药这两个结构性机会的投资者，觉得这半年 是大牛市。AI（人工智能）的发展在经历波折后，继续用强劲的基本面证明这是当前最伟大的技术革命，有 需求、有投资、有应用，也开始有收入。此外，坚信中国长期无风险收益率会持续低位的投资者，也通过投资 高股息公司躺赢。 高云程谈到，年轻人通过自己的消费行为塑造了新时代的新消费范式，新"禁酒令"却让旧消费雪上加霜。现在 抢玩偶的人，上一代他们的同龄人在抢购生肖茅台，和再之前的邮票、普洱 ...

Group 1 - The domestic equity market showed an increase in risk appetite in June, with technology growth and large financial sectors performing well under external shocks [1] - The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in July, with mid-year report forecasts becoming an important short-term sentiment indicator [1][2] - The upcoming July 9 deadline for the 90-day tariff suspension may impact the A-share market, with mixed negotiations ongoing between the US and other countries [1][2] Group 2 - The July Politburo meeting is anticipated to address short-term economic pressures, with expectations for fiscal policy to support the real estate market [2] - The July mid-year report preview season is approaching, with recent market sentiment being pessimistic despite structural improvements in corporate fundamentals [2] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance on economic outlook and inflation, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on inflation in July and August [2][3] Group 3 - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting demand, with strong expectations for structural opportunities in the consumer industry [3] - Dividend assets are likely to perform well due to low interest rates and stable fundamentals, attracting long-term capital [3] - Gold and defense-related assets remain attractive due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on their defensive value [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for a catalytic period, benefiting from favorable policies and stronger support for high-quality development [3]

70 后至 00 后的新兴消费变迁史，是轮回还是演进？ 20250701 摘要 消费者行为转变：消费者在预算受限情况下，更加注重情绪价值和悦己 型消费，例如潮玩、宠物、美妆等低单价但情绪属性强的商品，以及具 有储蓄属性的黄金珠宝，体现了宏观降级但自身升级的消费趋势。 国货品牌崛起：国货品牌在美妆领域已占据超过 50%的市场份额，并通 过技术升级和国潮文化在其他领域持续提升市场份额。功能性和时尚潮 流是推动国货崛起的重要因素。 产品驱动增长：渠道驱动和内容营销驱动逐渐失效，消费品市场进入产 品驱动增长时代，需要通过更好的性价比产品来刺激消费者购买决策。 黄金消费新趋势：黄金饰品消费从婚庆礼赠转向悦己和保值需求，新工 艺技术使得黄金饰品种类更加丰富，情绪价值较高且单价较低的新品类 增速明显。 情绪价值溢价：在经济下行周期，通过情绪价值实现产品溢价是一种有 效方式，例如高价手机壳品牌 Casefiy 和小件高频商品如沙发套，通过 满足消费者情绪需求获得较高定价权。 Q&A 新消费趋势的驱动力是什么？其背后的经济和社会背景有哪些变化？ 新消费趋势的驱动力主要来自于经济基础和社会背景的变革。首先，随着 GDP 增长到一 ...

以下文章来源于36氪未来消费 ，作者李小霞 36氪未来消费 . 在这里看到消费的未来。36氪旗下官方账号。 又一个百亿市值IPO。 文 ｜ 李小霞 编辑 ｜ 乔芊 来源｜ 36氪未来消费（ID：lslb168） 封面来源 ｜ 企业官网 随着if椰子水母公司成功上市，一只椰子的"钞能力"再次被呈现出来。 6月30日， IFBH Limited在港交所正式IPO，这家拥有 if椰子水、Innococo 品牌的公司，盘中涨幅一度超65%。按收盘价39.5港元 算，市值超100亿港元。 IFBH是一个泰国人于2013年创立的主营为椰子水的公司， 椰子水销售可占到总收入的96%。自 2017 年起，if 椰子水借助电商渠 道正式进军中国大陆市场，开启了以中国为增长引擎的向上之路。 招股书显示，IFBH2024年营收1.58亿美元（约11亿人民币），同比增长 80%； 其中中国内地占比92.4%，收入高达1.46亿美元。 在中国内地市场占有率约为34%， 超越第二大竞争对手七倍以上， 连续五年位居第一名。 在递交招股书后，IFBH仅用两个多月时间就通过了上市聆讯，创下了今年食品饮料企业港股过会最快纪录。 相比中国市场第一 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of new consumer brands in Henan, such as Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Pang Dong Lai, and others, which are reshaping the commercial landscape of the region [1][9][18] - Henan is transitioning from a traditional agricultural province to a hub of consumer innovation and modern retail, driven by a combination of local resources and market opportunities [12][13][19] Group 1: Commercial Development - The opening of Zhengdong Vientiane City marks a significant step in establishing Zhengzhou as an international consumption center, featuring a mix of urban retail and flagship stores [4][6] - The region has seen a surge in commercial complexes and flagship stores, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng achieving record sales of 600,000 cups in a single day [4][5] - The establishment of a "米" shaped high-speed rail network has transformed Zhengzhou into a consumer hub, facilitating access to 123 cities and an average daily passenger flow of over 300,000 [4][17] Group 2: Consumer Trends - New consumption patterns are emerging, with brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng representing affordable consumption, while Pang Dong Lai symbolizes quality consumption [9][11] - The rise of experiential and emotional consumption is evident, as brands focus on creating unique shopping experiences and emotional connections with consumers [16][19] - The article notes that the success of these brands is rooted in their ability to understand and respond to the genuine needs of consumers [12][19] Group 3: Economic Impact - The retail sales in Henan are projected to reach 27,597 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [17] - In the first five months of this year, the province's retail sales totaled 11,820.14 billion yuan, with Zhengzhou contributing 2,763 billion yuan [17] - The emergence of new consumer brands is expected to enhance the economic landscape of Henan, with more brands likely to gain national and international recognition [18][20] Group 4: Future Prospects - The article suggests that the rise of new consumer brands in Henan is not a fleeting trend but indicative of a deeper transformation in the region's commercial ecosystem [14][18] - The integration of local brands with international ones is anticipated to enrich the consumer market and elevate the region's commercial profile [20] - The potential for further innovation and brand development in Henan is significant, as the region continues to leverage its cultural heritage and entrepreneurial spirit [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption era is gaining momentum, driven by policy support and the spending power of Generation Z, leading to significant investment opportunities in the market [1][2]. New Consumption Highlights - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold surged by 14.94% on June 30, reaching a record high of 1035 HKD, reflecting the strong recovery of the consumption sector [1]. - New consumption categories such as pets and blind boxes are becoming market highlights as younger generations take the lead in consumer spending [1][2]. Market Analysis - The new consumption sector is experiencing strong phase growth, with good performance in earnings, leading to market confidence in future growth [2]. - Concerns have arisen regarding whether some new consumption stocks have reached overvalued levels after recent price increases, prompting a need for careful evaluation of individual stock valuations [3][4]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the new consumption industry is at a mid-high level, attracting significant capital due to high growth expectations, although it has not reached the extreme levels seen in 2020-2021 [4]. - The uncertainty in future cash flows makes traditional DCF valuation challenging, suggesting that PEG may be a more practical valuation method for this sector [4]. Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is expected to continue evolving, with new models and products emerging, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [6]. - There may be a divergence within the sector, with companies that can consistently meet or exceed performance expectations likely to see stock price appreciation, while those lacking new products may face declines [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics and medical beauty industry as "Positive" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The cosmetics retail sales growth for January to May 2025 is 4.1%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating a steady recovery in demand [3] - The performance of leading brands remains strong, with double-digit growth, supported by the theme of self-care in new consumption trends, leading to a positive outlook for the first half of 2025 [3] - The 618 shopping festival saw strong performances from domestic brands, with notable rankings on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [3] Summary by Sections Cosmetics Industry Outlook - The report anticipates significant revenue and net profit growth for major companies in Q2 and H1 2025, with specific forecasts: - Up Beauty Co. is expected to see a revenue increase of 16% and a net profit increase of 25% [3] - Marubi is projected to grow revenue by 22% and net profit by 28% in Q2 2025 [3] - Proya is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% and net profit growth of 15% in Q2 2025 [3] Key Companies Performance - Notable companies and their expected performance include: - Mao Geping is projected to have a revenue increase of 38% and net profit increase of 35% in H1 2025 [3] - Ruibin is expected to see a revenue increase of 15% and net profit increase of 15% in Q2 2025 [3] - Huaxi Biological is expected to maintain stable performance with a 0% revenue growth and a 10% net profit increase in Q2 2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand matrices and comprehensive product layouts, such as Up Beauty Co., Marubi, and Proya, which are expected to benefit from the live e-commerce traffic [3] - It also highlights the importance of niche market players like Ruibin and Mao Geping, who are positioned to capitalize on the rise of personal care and domestic beauty trends [3] - For the medical beauty sector, the report suggests focusing on companies with high R&D barriers and strong profitability, recommending companies like Aimeike and Langzi [3] E-commerce and Other Segments - The report suggests monitoring e-commerce companies like Ruibin, which is expected to see significant growth in revenue and net profit [3] - In the maternal and infant sector, Kid King is projected to exceed market expectations with a revenue increase of 10% and a net profit increase of 70% in Q2 2025 [3]

江苏 Jiang Su 本周是第35个全国节能宣传周，江苏省工信厅公布了江苏工业节能减碳最新成绩单。据初步测算，2024年全省单位地区生产总值能耗下降 3.5%左右，"十四五"前四年累计下降13%左右，预计可顺利完成国家下达的"十四五"累计下降14%的目标任务。 6月30日，第十七届莫愁湖荷花文化艺术展演——"荷而不同"之金陵美石展在南京莫愁湖美术馆开展。130余方以"荷"为主题的天然奇石错落陈 列，在方寸之间演绎着"荷而不同"的自然美学。 邵丹 摄 视觉江苏网供图 股市 Equity Market 国内 Domestic 苏超激战正酣，在体育用品出口的赛场上，江苏企业的表现同样亮眼。据统计，今年1—5月，江苏体育用品及设备出口68亿元，同比增长 7.8%。 南京住房公积金管理中心6月30日发布新政策，扩大异地贷款范围至全省，放宽提取条件，延长贷款期限至30年，并下调贷款利率0.25个百 分点，以优化公积金使用，支持购房者。 6月30日，2025年上半年A股收官，十大牛股新鲜出炉。联合化学以441%的涨幅位居榜首，舒泰神以403%的涨幅位居第二，ST宇顺 （355%）、ST信通（304%）紧随其后。北交所的九 ...

导读：前几天和一个基金经理聊天，他说现在投资要跟着孩子走。新消费品背后是95后群体。不懂年轻人，就看不懂今天的新消费。 人会变老，但投资组合要永保年轻。每一个时代的消费趋势，都是由年轻人推动的。70后消费群体，注重社交的场景化，带来了品牌白酒的欣欣向 荣。80后消费群体，注重个体的表达和娱乐，带来了国产品牌的崛起。90后消费群体，注重"悦己"和情绪价值，带来了新的消费模式。变化的是时 代特征，不变的是马斯洛需求的层层上升。 这位基金经理的观察绝非偶然。翻开当下消费市场的版图，新消费的核心驱动力早已从「功能满足」转向「情绪价值」。年轻人为一款潮玩IP支付 数倍溢价，本质是为开箱瞬间的惊喜感买单；排队数小时购买古法金饰，实则是为非遗工艺承载的文化认同感付费——这些在传统消费逻辑中难以 理解的现象，恰恰构成了新消费时代的底层密码。 当消费市场的话语权向Z世代倾斜，资本市场的应对逻辑也在加速迭代。传统消费板块中，白酒、家电等成熟行业适用的「护城河+现金流」估值框 架，在潮玩、美妆、宠物等高速成长的新消费领域正面临挑战。而作为我们中年投资者，要摒弃自己的偏好，贴近年轻人消费场景的投资视角，只 有理解Z世代的情感需求，才 ...

T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2025 年 07 月 01 日 b l [Table_Title] 锦波生物引入养生堂战略投资，老铺黄金加 e _ M 密上海布局 ——美护商社行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 维持行业"推荐"评级，重点关注美护、IP 衍生品、黄金珠宝等新消 费板块。标的方面推荐：上美股份、巨子生物、丸美生物、润本股份、 珀莱雅、潮宏基、布鲁可、福瑞达等。 风险提示 ] 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +4.56%/+4.61%/+1.04%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 9/8/24，同期上 证综指+1.91%，深证成指+3.73%，沪深 300+1.95%。 细分子板块来看，本周商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理各大二级子板块 普涨。教育/专业连锁/贸易涨幅居前，分别+7.47%/+7.42%/+5.2%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 （1）美护：国家药监局发布关于《已使用化妆品原料目录》管理有关 事项的公告，将两个安全监测期已满 3 年的化妆品新原料纳入《已使 用化妆品原料目 ...