Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bensent regarding inflation and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, alongside the confirmation of tariff deadlines by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2][5][7]. Economic Indicators - On July 21, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.49% to 44,561.55, the S&P 500 up 0.60% to 6,334.38, and the Nasdaq up 0.75% to 21,052.57, marking a significant milestone by surpassing 21,000 points [2][3]. Federal Reserve Scrutiny - Bensent suggested a review of the Federal Reserve's performance, questioning whether it has fulfilled its responsibilities effectively, especially in light of recent criticisms and rumors regarding potential leadership changes [5][6]. Tariff Deadlines - Lutnick announced that August 1 is the final deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, emphasizing that negotiations can continue post-deadline, but new tariff rates will take effect [7][8]. Corporate Earnings Outlook - Major U.S. companies are set to report earnings, with analysts expressing optimism despite warnings about low investor patience for underperforming results. The expected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2 has been adjusted from slightly below 5% to 5.6% [10][11]. Market Reactions - Following the announcements from Bensent and Lutnick, the market showed positive reactions, but analysts caution that any earnings reports falling short of expectations could lead to significant volatility and investor backlash [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing policy divergence, with market expectations for a September rate cut at 56.2%, anticipating a 25 basis point reduction, while 41.2% believe rates will remain unchanged [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views, with some adopting a hawkish stance and others leaning towards a rate cut within the year [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has emerged as a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, particularly given his clear support for rate cuts this year [3] Group 2 - Gold has been fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, showing weak continuation in both bullish and bearish trends, with significant volatility observed [5] - After failing to break through the 3375 level, gold has experienced a substantial pullback to the support level of 3310, and is currently rebounding towards the 3370 mark [5] - The strategy for gold trading includes buying near 3330 with a target of 3345-3353 and selling near 3370 with a target of 3355-3345, indicating a cautious approach to market movements [6] Group 3 - Crude oil has faced pressure at the high of 78, dropping to the support level of 66, and has been in a weak consolidation phase below 70 [8] - There are signs of bottoming out within the 65-70 range, but confirmation of a reversal will require a breakout above the 70 level [8] - The current strategy suggests trading within the 66-70 range, with clear breakout points to follow for further trading decisions [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - **Automobile Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,356 to $3,361 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.22% to 0.10% [1][2] - Recent economic data, including strong retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000), have created a tug-of-war in the gold market, balancing short-term economic strength against long-term inflation concerns [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has advised against attempting to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating potential for two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials are divided on interest rate policy, with some advocating for a rate cut while others emphasize the importance of maintaining a restrictive stance [2] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including consumer confidence and inflation expectations, which will influence gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in the dollar, expectations for delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are limiting further declines in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Gold ETF funds have seen a recent increase of 0.37%, with significant net inflows of 131 million yuan over the past four days [3] - The performance of gold prices is expected to stabilize as U.S. debt pressures ease, with traditional frameworks of real interest rates driving gold price fluctuations [4] - Recent economic indicators, such as the June CPI data and manufacturing indices, suggest resilience in the U.S. economy, which may limit upward trends in gold prices [4] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options, allowing for T+0 trading and serving as a hedge against economic downturns [5]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

Summary of Morgan Stanley US Economics Outlook Update Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Economy - **Focus**: Economic outlook for 2025-2026, including growth, inflation, fiscal policy, trade, and immigration impacts Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Expectations**: - Slow growth projected with real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [6][7][18] - Baseline scenario indicates firm inflation with inflation peaking in Q3 2025 [6][7] 2. **Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy**: - Inflation expected to remain elevated, with core PCE inflation at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 [6][18] - Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady in 2025, with cuts starting in March 2026 [6][11] 3. **Fiscal Policy Impact**: - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is anticipated to widen the deficit in 2026 but may provide a growth impulse of 0.4 percentage points to GDP [3][18] - Fiscal multipliers from the OBBBA are higher than previously expected, potentially boosting demand [3][13] 4. **Trade and Tariff Effects**: - Effective tariff rates projected to rise to approximately 16-17% under the baseline scenario, with potential increases to 23% in a mild recession scenario [9][16] - Recent trade announcements have increased downside risks to the economic outlook, with a 40% probability of a downside scenario [6][8][18] 5. **Immigration Policy**: - Immigration restrictions are expected to slow potential growth to 1.5%, with net immigration dropping significantly from 2.9 million in 2024 to 300,000 in 2025 [9][18] - Expanded legal immigration could help maintain potential growth at 2.0% in alternative scenarios [3][18] 6. **Alternate Scenarios**: - **Demand Upside**: Stronger fiscal multipliers could lead to higher growth and prolonged elevated inflation, with no Fed cuts in 2025 or 2026 [13][18] - **Supply Upside**: De-escalation in trade and immigration policies could result in faster growth and less aggressive Fed cuts [14][18] - **Mild Recession**: A trade shock could lead to a GDP decline of 1.2% peak-to-trough, with a significant rise in effective tariff rates [16][18] Other Important Content 1. **Unemployment Rate Projections**: - Unemployment rate expected to finish 2025 at 4.2% and 2026 at 3.8% under the baseline scenario [6][18] 2. **Consumer Confidence and Spending**: - Consumer confidence is projected to rebound but remains limited due to high inflation and uncertainty [18] - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2025 before picking up to 1.6% in 2026 [18] 3. **Investment Trends**: - Nonresidential fixed investment is expected to rise by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and improved sentiment [18] 4. **Credit Conditions**: - Credit conditions are expected to tighten further due to high policy rates and elevated uncertainty, with a potential loosening in 2026 [18] 5. **Productivity Growth**: - Productivity growth is anticipated to bounce back in 2026 after slowing in 2025 [18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the US economic outlook as presented in the Morgan Stanley report, highlighting the interplay between fiscal policy, trade dynamics, and macroeconomic indicators.

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market will maintain a short - term tug - of - war, with the core contradiction being the game between the inflation rhythm pushed up by tariffs and the Fed's policy expectations. Trump's tariff increases have initially raised business costs. If the tariff scope expands or the August 1 negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience shown in June CPI and retail data may make the Fed maintain a wait - and - see attitude, limiting the upside of gold prices. The market focuses on the September rate - cut expectation, but if real interest rates do not fall as expected, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, Trump's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico spurred safe - haven buying, but the market's expectation of negotiation easing diluted the increase. US June CPI core commodity inflation showed an initial rise, but overall CPI was lower than expected. The stagnant PPI growth in June led to a mid - week rebound. Near the weekend, strong retail sales boosted the dollar and suppressed gold, but Trump's 25% tariff on Japan reignited safe - haven demand. Gold prices remained high - level volatile. Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provided long - term support, while CFTC speculative net - long position reduction indicated short - term profit - taking pressure. Silver was relatively firm due to strong semiconductor demand but limited by weakening photovoltaic demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The precious metals market will remain in a short - term tug - of - war. If tariffs expand or the negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience may make the Fed wait and see, limiting gold's upside. The market focuses on the September rate - cut, but if real interest rates do not fall, gold may continue to fluctuate. Long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, pay attention to the correction risk. For the next week, the SHFE gold 2510 contract is expected to trade between 750 - 800 yuan/gram, the SHFE silver 2510 contract between 9000 - 9300 yuan/kg. For overseas markets, COMEX gold futures are expected to trade between 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures between 38 - 39 US dollars/ounce [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: Gold prices continued to fluctuate and ended the week higher, silver prices rose. There was a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. As of July 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at 38.555 US dollars/ounce, down 1.03% week - on - week; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9273 yuan/kg, up 2.84% week - on - week. COMEX gold was at 3344.2 US dollars/ounce, down 0.59% week - on - week; SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 777.02 yuan/gram, up 0.49% week - on - week [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 17, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 14695 tons, down 1.3% week - on - week; the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 948.50 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week [15]. - **COMEX Net Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 443144 contracts, up 1.25% week - on - week, and net positions were 202968 contracts, up 0.49% week - on - week. COMEX silver total positions were 162803 contracts, down 0.47% week - on - week, and net positions were 58521 contracts, down 7.70% week - on - week [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 261685 contracts, up 1.2% week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 58717 contracts, up 3.6% week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: As of July 17, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.36 yuan/gram, down 25.82% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 43 yuan/kg, down 258.33% week - on - week [30]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37143884.29 ounces, up 0.99% week - on - week; SHFE gold inventory was 24585 kg, up 14.58% week - on - week. COMEX silver inventory was 496635874 ounces, down 0.30% week - on - week; SHFE silver inventory was 1303593 kg, down 2.70% week - on - week [35]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46% month - on - month to 273741.39 kg, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% month - on - month to 136237148 kg. As of June 2025, due to soaring semiconductor silver demand, integrated circuit production increased by 15.80% year - on - year to 4506000 pieces [41][45]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: Gold prices were mainly volatile. As of July 17, 2025, the China Gold recycling price was 769.9 yuan/gram, down 0.21% week - on - week. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were basically stable [59]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93% quarter - on - quarter; gold jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47% quarter - on - quarter; total gold demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound due to strong CPI inflation and retail data. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined slightly. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate rose. In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, the eighth consecutive month of increase [67][72][76][80].

Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market is influenced by multiple core variables including Federal Reserve policy expectations, Trump's trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics [2] - The US dollar index experienced a rebound, closing at 97.83, marking a 0.9% increase, the first weekly gain in three weeks [3] - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, with gold closing at $3,355.12 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar strengthened due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to maintain interest rates, while the British pound faced pressure, recording six consecutive declines [5] - The euro was under pressure following dovish comments from European Central Bank officials, while the US dollar against the Japanese yen saw fluctuations, ultimately rising nearly 2% for the week [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and expectations that OPEC+ may pause production increases in October [6] - Despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to external factors [6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced high volatility, with technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs [7] - However, all three major indices closed lower for the week, reflecting a rebalancing pressure due to high valuations [7] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw significant activity, with Bitcoin reaching $117,789 per coin, driven by institutional interest [8] - However, the influx of leveraged funds raised concerns about market volatility, with $541 million in liquidations reported in the past 24 hours [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, key economic data releases, and potential adjustments in Trump's policies in the coming week [9] - The US dollar's performance is likely to continue influencing non-US asset prices, with gold and silver expected to maintain strength, while oil price volatility may increase [9]