Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate levels in the short term, focusing on economic performance rather than external factors [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has not shown significant rebound, with initial jobless claims remaining at historically low levels, indicating a stabilizing job market [4]. - Economic growth momentum remains resilient, with previous quarterly growth showing strength and no clear signs of contraction from businesses or consumers [8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Approach - The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy reflects a "observe-validate-act" rhythm, prioritizing data clarity over hasty adjustments [4][8]. - Inflation remains a critical variable, with recent data indicating fluctuating price increases, limiting the scope for rapid policy easing [8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Investors are gradually accepting the reality of a slowed pace of interest rate cuts, with futures indicating limited potential cuts this year, contingent on clear changes in the economy or inflation [12]. - This convergence of expectations helps reduce market volatility and provides a more stable anchor for asset pricing [12]. Group 4: Overall Assessment - The Federal Reserve's policy will continue to revolve around economic fundamentals, and maintaining current interest rates does not signify a directional change but rather a prudent choice [12].

UNforex 1月27日讯（分析师 Simon）在全球市场风险偏好再度走弱的背景下，黄金维持高位强势运行 格局。周二欧洲交易时段，现货黄金在连续第七个交易日走高后逼近5100美元整数关口，并在历史高位 附近展开整理。贸易政策前景不明、地缘局势反复以及对美联储进一步调整政策立场的预期，共同构成 当前金价运行的主要支撑因素。 从宏观环境观察，美元指数仍运行在数月低位区域，显著降低了非美元投资者配置黄金的成本。市场主 流观点认为，美联储在2026年仍存在两次下调政策利率的空间，该预期持续压制美元表现，并强化了黄 金在资产配置中的吸引力。 与此同时，全球黄金ETF的资金流入速度明显加快。2025年，通过ETF渠道配置黄金的全球投资需求同 比增长25%，总持仓规模升至4000吨以上，资产管理规模同步扩张。这一变化反映出机构投资者对黄金 中长期配置价值的认可正在增强。 综合来看，金价逼近5100美元并非单一因素驱动，而是在政策不确定性、地缘风险、央行持续购金以及 美元偏弱等多重变量叠加下形成的阶段性定价结果。当前市场对黄金的关注重点，已从短期价格波动， 转向其在全球资产组合中的风险对冲与信用缓冲功能。 在价格处于历史高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, geopolitical tensions initially rose due to Trump's tariff threat but later eased The US Q3 GDP was revised upwards, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims and a moderate rise in the PCE price index, strengthening the view of the Fed staying put in the short - term while long - term easing expectations remain unchanged Domestically and in Indonesia, newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, leading to a slow increase in supply and a continued decline in the molten aluminum ratio. After a decline, aluminum prices stabilized, downstream consumption improved slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed. Overall, with mixed macro news and stable - to - slightly - increasing supply and consumption with some resilience in the seasonal off - season, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][8] - For cast aluminum, the aluminum alloy operating rate rose by 1.3% to 59.3% last week due to the lifting of environmental controls in some areas. However, downstream consumption is restricted by the seasonal off - season, snowfall, and environmental production restrictions in Central China. Terminal orders are disappointing, and some manufacturers have entered the Spring Festival holiday early. The exchange inventory decreased by 2140 tons. With supply slightly increasing but still restricted by costs and downstream orders, and demand remaining weak in the seasonal off - season, the supply - demand stalemate continues, and cast aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 3128.5 to 3173.5 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24020 to 24395 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory increased from 488000 to 507275 tons, among other data changes [4] 3.2 Market Review - In the electrolytic aluminum spot market, the weekly average price was 23816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from last week. The South China storage spot weekly average price was 23858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 476 yuan/ton from last week. Macro factors include Trump's tariff threat and subsequent withdrawal, US GDP growth, and inflation data. In terms of consumption, the downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose slightly, and inventory increased. For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price increased, the operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels due to mixed macro news and stable - to - slightly - increasing supply and consumption with resilience in the off - season. Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the supply - demand stalemate [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 54.5 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to December was 613.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, the tariff cost per ton of aluminum has risen from about 1300 dollars in June to 1550 dollars. China's automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 34 million in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of new car sales [10][11] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices, ratios, premiums, spreads, inventory, and cast aluminum prices and inventory, etc [13][18][27]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月23日电（王姝睿）受地缘政治紧张局势及特朗普政府政策反复影响，美元指数本周可 能录得自2025年6月以来最大单周跌幅。市场对美国资产情绪转弱，汇率市场波动显著。 目前美元指数交投于98关口附近，处于逾两周低位，本周跌幅可能达到1%。欧元与英镑则分别持稳于 近期高点附近，显示资金阶段性流出美元资产。 据外媒报道，北欧大型投资者越来越警惕在地缘政治紧张局势下美国资产的持有风险。多位养老基金负 责人表示，这表明资金正更广泛地从美国撤离。由于对美国财政状况的担忧，持有美国资产所要求的风 险溢价也在上升。来自芬兰、瑞典和丹麦的养老基金行业领袖和投资负责人表示，他们认为美国外交政 策的不确定性以及白宫高企的债务水平，正对美元、美国国债和美股构成威胁。 编辑：王晓伟 汇丰银行指出，虽然未来存在一些可能推动美元反弹的情景。然而，至少在目前，这并不在展望之内。 部分投资人也发出警告，指出美元走势并非单向。不确定性的消退，以及结构和周期性驱动因素对美元 变得越来越有利，可能会看到美元重新攀升。但就目前而言，美元应会持续处于落后位置。 美元短期波动可能受到风险情绪和资本流动的影响，长期趋势则取决于美 ...

2026年开年以来美元指数延续震荡偏弱格局，整体围绕低位区间波动，市场对美联储宽松政策的预期成 为主导走势的核心，叠加全球央行政策分化、美国经济基本面表现分化，美元呈现"趋势走弱、间歇反 弹"的特征，短期暂无明确单边方向。 美联储政策重心已从抗通胀转向防衰退，市场普遍预期2026年将延续降息步伐，上半年降息预期尤为浓 厚，政策宽松方向明确对美元形成持续压制。同时美联储领导层或迎来更迭，市场对新任掌舵者偏宽松 的政策倾向预期，进一步强化了美元的长期弱势逻辑。 但美联储内部对降息节奏仍存显著分歧，核心通胀仍高于政策目标，叠加关税政策带来的输入性通胀压 力，通胀韧性成为制约降息力度的关键因素，市场激进的降息预期存在修正可能。若后续通胀回落不及 预期，美联储或放缓宽松步伐，将成为美元阶段性反弹的重要诱因。 美国经济展现出一定韧性，财政扩张政策与人工智能产业的发展为经济注入活力，官方对2026年经济增 速的预期上修，实体经济的积极表现为美元提供了一定支撑，也成为对冲宽松政策的重要因素。 就业与通胀数据则呈现分化特征，就业市场整体降温，新增就业不及预期，劳动参与率回落使得失业率 数据缺乏实际支撑；通胀虽较峰值显著回落，但 ...

美联储方面，通胀回落速度不及预期，市场对其降息时间点的押注后移，美元短期难以持续走弱。澳美 之间的利差预期变化，成为影响澳元走势的重要因素。若美联储未来释放更明确的宽松信号，而澳洲联 储维持偏紧立场，澳元有望获得更大上行动能。 作为商品货币，澳元与大宗商品价格关联紧密。近期铜价受全球需求改善及供应紧张预期推动，表现相 对强势，对澳元形成支撑。黄金价格走高也间接利好澳元资产。 澳洲联储近期保持利率稳定，强调通胀仍有粘性，不排除进一步收紧的可能。就业市场表现强劲，服务 类通胀韧性较强，使部分机构仍预期未来可能加息。但也有观点认为经济增长压力较大，政策或更偏向 观望。整体来看，澳洲联储态度偏"鹰派中性"，为澳元提供一定支撑。 澳元兑美元近期维持震荡上行节奏，整体处于偏强格局。澳洲联储政策态度谨慎，通胀与就业数据反 复，使市场对未来利率路径的预期不断调整；与此同时，美联储降息预期延后，美元阶段性承压，为澳 元提供外部支撑。不过，政策分歧仍存，澳元上行空间受到一定限制。 未来澳元走势将主要取决于三大因素：澳洲联储的政策表态及通胀数据表现、中国需求相关政策对大宗 商品价格的影响、以及美联储的降息节奏与美元走势。若通胀数据 ...

封面新闻记者 朱珠 多家国际机构也纷纷上调金价预期。公开报道显示，高盛最新研报将2026年底黄金目标价从4900美元/盎司大幅上调至5400美元/盎司。摩根大通则预测， 2026年第四季度金价均价将达到5055美元/盎司，长期甚至有望上探6000美元关口。 值得注意的是，中信建投研报指出，2026年大概率美国AI持续，全球经历资本开支增扩的短暂繁荣，铜金将完成教科书般完美接力，2026年金价或弱于 2025年，值得期待的是铜。直到新秩序框架明朗，新的强势国际货币走向台前，届时黄金的"黄金"时代迎来真正句号，这是黄金的长期逻辑。 回顾2025年，贵金属成为全球资本市场表现最为亮眼的资产类别之一。金价全年呈现"震荡上行"走势，除4月至8月进入横盘整理阶段，以及10月下旬至11 月中旬出现小幅回调外，其余时段均保持明确上涨趋势。年内国际现货黄金最高价一度触及4550美元/盎司。 进入2026年，金价延续上涨态势。1月14日，国际现货黄金价格刷新历史高点至4643美元/盎司；1月16日小幅回调至4595美元/盎司；随后继续上扬，截至 1月23日盘中最高触及4967.48美元/盎司。国内消费市场也同步升温，金饰克价年内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a phase of volatility, with prices shifting from a strong upward trend to a consolidation pattern amid increasing global financial market fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent U.S. employment data has shown robust performance, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance in the short term [1]. - The anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts has led to a strengthening of real interest rates and the U.S. dollar, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [1]. - Geopolitical tensions that previously supported gold prices are easing, resulting in a reduction of risk premiums and a temporary decline in safe-haven demand for gold [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are likely to continue fluctuating as the market focuses on signals from the Federal Reserve, inflation, employment data, and the impact of the U.S. dollar on gold prices [2]. - The mid-term trajectory of gold prices will depend on two key factors: whether monetary policy expectations shift back towards easing and whether geopolitical risks escalate again [2]. Group 3: Investment Platform Insights - Harmovest Capital, an investment platform with a global user base of 2 million, offers diversified solutions for investors participating in the gold market [4]. - The platform operates under multiple regulatory jurisdictions, ensuring the safety and transparency of user funds through oversight by authoritative bodies [4]. - Harmovest Capital provides comprehensive support for investors, including direct participation in gold trading, flexible leverage options, and advanced risk management tools [5].

格陵兰当地时间周四(1月22日)的新闻发布会上，首相延斯-弗雷德里克.尼尔森表示，他对美国总统特朗 普前一天与北约领导人会面后宣布的"框架"协议内容并不知情。尼尔森强调，任何涉及格陵兰岛的协议 都必须让该岛及其所属王国丹麦拥有发言权。格陵兰主权争议的最新进展对黄金市场的影响主要体现为 强化其避险逻辑。 周五(1月23日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格延续涨势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4950.12美元/盎司，上涨 0.31%，最高触及4966.49美元/盎司，最低下探4930.27美元/盎司。地缘政治不确定性叠加市场对美联储 政策独立性的担忧，持续推升黄金配置需求。尽管部分政治风险出现缓和迹象，但在降息预期与央行持 续买入背景下，黄金中长期多头结构仍保持稳固，且多头情绪进一步释放。 美国11月核心PCE物价指数符合预期。美国1月17日当周初请失业金人数20万人，预期21万人。最新美 国个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数显示，11月和10月消费者支出均增长0.5%，通胀温和上涨至同比2.8%， 这虽凸显经济韧性，但也强化了美联储按兵不动的短期预期，却为中长期宽松铺平道路。 近期，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰相关问题的紧张局势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed performance of international precious metal futures, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce, driven by increased market concerns over Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and geopolitical complexities [1][2] - The geopolitical situation has led to gold prices surpassing $4800 per ounce for the first time, while platinum reached record highs and palladium experienced a slight decline [1] - Analysts suggest that the current rise in gold and silver prices is a result of a "perfect storm" due to global geopolitical tensions, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its benchmark interest rate in the first quarter, which would benefit non-yielding gold [2] Group 2 - There is a potential for silver prices to reach three digits, although fluctuations and price corrections are anticipated, indicating higher volatility in the market [2] - The introduction of silver futures contracts is influencing the supply and demand dynamics in the precious metals market [1]