大家好，我是佩妮。 最近跌麻了，跌的亲妈不认。尤其是美股，昨晚睡前还红彤彤，早上起来一看，天塌了…… Btc从12万到现在8.5万，也就不过一个多月。 上午再看了看大A，也是绿油油滴，满4000-200。 梗图真是诚不我欺，这样的日子，能够让我以不同的方式， 花式亏钱 。 这个时候，我们一定要冷静。 （我很冷静，但是感觉家属现在已经心态快崩了，哈哈哈哈） 接下来，我们一起梳理下原因，主要也是为了给自己找找调整思路，顺便给大家做一下 心理按摩 。 首先，给某一次大跌来找原因，总是有点 "先射箭后画靶" 的意思，我一般不爱这么干，但是收集一下信息可以更了解市场。 股市的波动一般可以从3个方面进行分析： 基本面，资金面，情绪面。 宏观的视角，说大跌的原因有这些： 1）9月公布的非农数据产生分歧，因为担心通胀，美联储放鹰， 12月降息的预期减弱了。 （简单说下： 鹰派 倾向于高利率/紧缩政策，打压通胀。 鸽派 更担心经济和就业，倾向于低利率刺激市场） 不过，我个人觉得，政策反复很正常啊。 就算12月不降，等到关税的影响相对明朗，为了经济， 明年依然会降，走向宽松的趋势是不变的。 2）还是在说 "AI泡沫" 的事儿； ...

科普来看，K线图是投资分析中常用的工具，用于观察股票或指数的价格波动及趋势。长上影线或长下影线可能反映市场多空力量的不均衡。而股价占 指数 比重较大的公司，其价格波动往往对指数整体产生较大影响。另一方面，AI行业的发展与芯片供应密切相关，但技术突破可能改变行业格局，从而影响相 关公司的盈利能力和市场估值。 Button总结认为，美联储政策变化虽值得关注，但对整体市场的短期影响有限；相比之下，AI板块的波动性仍然较高，存在"高估值泡沫被修正"的可能性。 在这种背景下，市场仍可能维持一定波动，投资者需关注行业技术发展和宏观政策信号，以理解股市背后的逻辑。 原因在于，谷歌展示了无需依赖英伟达芯片也能打造出高性能的LLM，这意味着其他公司同样有能力进入该市场，从而可能降低英伟达未来的利润预期。 值得注意的是，英伟达在标普500指数中的权重约为8%，如果其股价大幅下跌，将直接对指数造成显著拖累。此外，AI相关股票整体估值偏高，也存在一定 的调整风险。 在宏观政策方面，美联储态度的变化也影响了市场情绪。此前市场几乎确定12月将降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示反对降息，使市场对降息的概率预期 从接近确定降至约36%。But ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly reduced the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 1: Market Influences - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped from approximately 45% to around 30%-40% [2] - The global tech stock market crash has triggered risk-averse sentiment, which may support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,110 and the $4,130-$4,140 range; a failure to sustain upward momentum near these levels may warrant short positions [2] - A critical support level to watch is $4,020; if gold stabilizes here and shows bullish candlestick patterns, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - If gold breaks below the $4,020 support, it could open up further downside potential, while a strong breakout above $4,140 could lead to additional upward movement, though the current fundamentals do not strongly support this scenario [3] Group 3: Future Monitoring - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are crucial for the gold market; attention should be paid to speeches from Fed officials leading up to the December FOMC meeting, as any hints regarding interest rate paths could cause market fluctuations [4] - Key economic data, including upcoming inflation figures (CPI, PCE) and the combined non-farm employment report for October and November, will be critical in assessing the U.S. economic condition and inflation trends [5] - The ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 psychological and technical support level is essential; a breach could lead to further declines [6]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline in November, with the overall market cap dropping by $750 billion to within $3 trillion[2] - Bitcoin has fluctuated below $90,000, currently at $86,500, marking a nearly 30% drop from its peak on October 6[2] - Altcoins have experienced even greater declines, with most altcoin/BTC trading pairs showing weak performance[2] Economic Factors - The current downturn is attributed more to macroeconomic factors and profit-taking rather than structural risks within the industry, unlike the extreme bear market of 2022[3] - Recent comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have shifted market sentiment towards a cautious stance ahead of the December meeting, with a 32% implied probability of a rate cut[4][5] Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has not shown signs of a bottoming out, with support levels moving down after breaking below $94,000[8] - Long-term holders are continuing to reduce their positions, while short-term holders are facing ongoing losses[8] Market Sentiment - The cryptocurrency and stock market fear and greed indices remain in the extreme fear zone, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors[13] ETF Trends - Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recorded continuous net outflows since early November, with significant redemptions from major funds like BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF[8][18] Key Metrics - Major cryptocurrencies have seen substantial declines, with Bitcoin down 16.3% bi-weekly and 21.6% monthly, while Ethereum has dropped 17.7% bi-weekly and 27.9% monthly[16] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued new guidelines allowing licensed platforms to share liquidity with overseas platforms, marking a shift towards more integrated regulation[24] Institutional Movements - Coinbase has launched a savings account in the UK offering a 3.75% interest rate, while Block reported $1.97 billion in Bitcoin-related revenue for Q3, accounting for nearly one-third of total revenue[19] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure until new capital inflows or clear macro catalysts emerge, with Bitcoin potentially testing the $84,000 to $85,000 range[13]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a 6.22% decline in market capitalization over the past 24 hours due to rising global market risk aversion and weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The correlation with Nasdaq has negatively impacted cryptocurrencies, with a 4% drop attributed to concerns over an AI bubble [1] - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies, driven by strong employment data and signals of tightening monetary policy, has suppressed rate cut expectations [2] - Deleveraging has occurred as Bitcoin fell below the $87,000 support level, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations [3] Group 2: Liquidation Alerts - A total of 247,587 individuals were liquidated across the network in the last 24 hours, amounting to $943 million, with long positions suffering the most at $823 million [4] Group 3: Major Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at approximately $85,633, down 7.44% in 24 hours, with a critical resistance level at $86,780 [6] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at around $2,798, down 8.115%, with a key resistance level at $2,840 [6] - BNB is priced at about $860, down 5.50%, with a resistance level at $873 [6] - Solana (SOL) is priced at approximately $132, down 7.58%, with a resistance level at $133 [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.94 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $210.89 billion [7] - Current market sentiment is at 15, indicating extreme fear, with the total market cap down 24% compared to the 30-day moving average, marking the most oversold level since April 2025 [7] Group 5: Price Movements of Other Cryptocurrencies - Top gainers include TNSR, up 140%, DYM, up 66%, and XAI, up 35% [9] - Top losers include ZK, down 19%, STRK, down 19%, and CYBEER, down 17% [9] - Other notable cryptocurrencies include Dogecoin (DOGE) down 6.58%, Cardano (ADA) down 7.33%, and Litecoin (LTC) down 6.13% [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is in a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market faces low demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,750 yuan/ton and closed at 115,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 124,692 (+42,129) lots, and the open interest was 152,848 (12,764) lots. It showed a weak and oscillating downward trend. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy increased, the probability of a December interest rate cut was less than 50%, the US dollar strengthened, and the supply - demand relationship became looser with rising inventory, leading to a clear short - term downward trend [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen landed at $42/wet ton, and the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet had no deal. The nickel - iron tender price of downstream mainstream steel mills reached a new low of 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and iron plants were not very motivated to produce and mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by $0.12 - 0.2/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot transaction was okay. The premiums of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and nickel beans were 4,100 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 34,631 (- 793) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,172 (-1,674) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,330 yuan/ton and closed at 12,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,724 (+31,045) lots, and the open interest was 192,398 (-4,171) lots. The price basically followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel price, there was still no sign of price rebound [3]. - **Spot**: The price continued to decline and reached a historical low, the market sentiment was even more sluggish, and the transaction was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The SMM data showed that the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 894.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Group 1 - Recent copper price movements have been influenced by supply-side production cuts and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a strong rally followed by a pullback due to hawkish signals from the Fed [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains marginally loose, but its positive impact on the market is limited, with expectations for a rate cut in December now below 50% [1] - Supply uncertainties persist, with a decrease in refined copper production and imports in September, while global copper markets may face a supply gap of approximately 150,000 tons by 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The inventory structure shows regional mismatches, with high Comex copper inventories and slight accumulations in SHFE, while LME inventories are declining [2] - The TC (treatment charge) remains at historically low levels, indicating ongoing tightness in copper ore supply, with upcoming negotiations expected to influence TC levels for 2026 [2] - As the fourth quarter progresses, copper prices are likely to be driven by supply and demand dynamics, with macroeconomic stimuli failing to create a sustained trend [3]

来源：滚动播报 美联储哈马克：美联储政策仍需着眼于降低通胀。 ...

美国国债收益率在亚洲交易时段小幅走高，此前美联储10月份会议的纪要称，对于该委员会12月份的政 策决定存在"严重分歧的看法"。与此同时，美国劳工统计局周三表示，不会发布10月份的完整美国就业 报告，该报告将与11月份的完整报告一同发布。SEB的Amanda Sundstrom在一份报告中称，在美国劳工 统计局发布上述声明后，市场认为美联储12月降息的可能性已大幅下降，而美联储的会议纪要也起到了 助推作用，因其暗示利率可能在今年剩余时间保持在当前水平。据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收 益率上升1个基点，至4.140%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to release several important economic data and events, with a particular focus on U.S. labor market indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1] - Key U.S. employment data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, including the unemployment rate for September, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and average hourly earnings month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The release of these delayed data due to the previous government shutdown will provide crucial insights into the state of the U.S. labor market [1] Group 2 - Additional U.S. economic indicators to be released include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November, annualized existing home sales for October, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month for October, which will help gauge the latest trends in the U.S. economy [3] - In Europe, key data such as Germany's PPI for October, Switzerland's trade balance for October, the CBI Industrial Orders Balance for the UK in November, and the preliminary consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in November are noteworthy for investors [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on financial stability at 00:00 the following day, followed by Goolsbee at 01:40, which may provide clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve [3]