Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, following a national security assessment [1][2] - This tariff is expected to significantly impact global copper trade flows and may lead to increased costs for U.S. industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and electrical sectors [6][11] - The COMEX copper futures price surged by 10% to a record high of $5.89 per pound after the announcement, while LME copper prices fell over 2% [2][10] Group 2 - The COMEX-LME copper futures price spread has reached a historical high of $2,677 per ton, indicating a significant divergence in market pricing [2][4] - U.S. copper imports have surged, with 685,000 tons imported in the first half of the year, nearly matching the total expected for 2024 [10] - The anticipated tariff could lead to a 5% to 8% reduction in U.S. copper demand, as higher costs may deter consumption [15] Group 3 - The tariff is part of a broader strategy to reshape U.S. copper industry dynamics and reduce reliance on imports from 45% to 30% by 2035 [11] - The U.S. is leveraging the tariff to gain political capital ahead of the Republican National Convention, showcasing a decisive stance on trade [9] - The potential for increased copper prices and volatility in the market is heightened, with expectations of a significant impact on global supply chains [11][15] Group 4 - China's copper imports are heavily reliant on the U.S., with over 80% of copper concentrate imports coming from abroad, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions [13] - The copper market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in China, which could exacerbate inventory pressures if U.S. tariffs redirect copper flows to Asia [13] - The long-term outlook for copper remains positive, driven by increasing demand in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors [16][17]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with US indices experiencing declines: Nasdaq down -0.1%, S&P 500 down -0.3%, and Dow Jones down -1.0%[3] - European markets saw gains, with Germany's DAX up +2.0%, France's CAC40 up +1.7%, and UK's FTSE 100 up +1.3%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam's VN30 index led gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's SENSEX30 indices experienced pullbacks[3] Tariff Impact - The reintroduction of tariffs has created significant uncertainty for TACO transactions, with US tariffs on the EU exceeding expectations, ranging from 25% to 50% effective August 1[3] - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, alongside a 35% tariff on Canada, indicates a strategy of "maximum pressure" on allies, potentially disrupting market perceptions of TACO transactions[3] - According to TAX FOUNDATION, the weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, leading to an estimated annual tariff revenue of $665.91 billion based on a $4.1 trillion import scale for 2024[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Divergence in interest rate cut expectations has increased, influenced by tariff uncertainties; some Fed officials express caution regarding inflation impacts from tariffs[3] - The latest FOMC minutes indicate a preference for observing tariff impacts before deciding on rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut starting in September[3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed, including social media calls for rate cuts, adds complexity to the interest rate outlook, with market volatility expected until September[3] Investment Strategy - The unexpected tariffs may impact TACO transactions and short-term market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks and gold[3] - Long-term investment recommendations include positioning in US Treasuries and XBI, which may benefit from strengthened rate cut expectations[3] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investors have shown remarkable resilience to various shocks, including inflation concerns, tariff threats, and geopolitical conflicts, maintaining high levels of confidence in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Despite escalating trade threats from Trump, including a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 50% tariff on copper, speculative sentiment remains high, with Bitcoin surpassing $118,000 and stock markets near record highs [1]. - The S&P 500 index closed slightly below its record high, indicating that traders are less fearful even as indicators of market pressure rise [2]. - Columbia Threadneedle Investments' Josh Kutin noted that the market has remained indifferent to issues like tariffs and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a lack of negative reaction from investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "TACO" trade, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflects a growing belief among investors that the government will retract tariff threats, allowing for increased stock exposure [3]. - Strong momentum and relatively low volatility have led to bullish signals in multiple investment portfolios, encouraging traders to seek tactical opportunities [3]. Group 3: Concerns and Warnings - JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about complacency in the market, suggesting that the current environment may be a pressure test for investors [5]. - Man Group's Kristina Hooper warned that the market rally may have gone too far, and the unresolved tariff situation poses challenges for investors trying to model potential outcomes [5].

KVB官网发现周四，特朗普一系列新的关税警告如石沉大海，并未如 4 月宣布 "对等关税" 时那般在市场中掀起惊 涛骇浪。当日，标普 500 和纳斯达克指数收盘时仍强势上扬，双双创下新高。科技巨头英伟达表现格外亮眼，收盘 市值首次突破 4 万亿美元大关，展现出强大的市场影响力。与此同时，比特币价格也一路飙升，创下历史新高，似 乎全然不受关税政策的阴霾笼罩。 汇丰策略师马克斯・凯特纳（Max Kettner）带领的团队表示，风险资产有望持续获得支撑，二季度财报季和市场 对关税敏感度的降低将成为关键催化剂。"除投资者仓位仍具支撑外，我们认为市场对二季度财报季的悲观预期被 夸大。美元走弱、公司盈利指引改善及低预期足以带来正面意外。在本周再度宣布关税措施后，任何降息举措也可 能被市场解读为利好。" 投资者正紧锣密鼓地为即将到来的第二季度财报季做准备，密切关注特朗普 4 月 2 日启动的关税战对企业盈利的潜 在影响。Granite Wealth Management 董事总经理布鲁斯・扎罗（Bruce Zaro）表示："分析师对标普 500 公司普遍持 怀疑态度，纷纷下调预期，主要基于关税及其带来的不确定性。但我们认为， ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing resilience despite ongoing tariff threats from Trump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion. Bitcoin also hit an all-time high [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that the market has become complacent regarding Trump's tariff threats, suggesting that investors believe he will back down as he has in the past [3]. - Dimon emphasizes the importance of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which could stabilize tariffs and provide a framework for future negotiations [3]. - The market is currently preparing for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate profits [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dimon indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is higher than market expectations, suggesting a 40% to 50% chance compared to the market's 20% [5]. - He attributes this higher probability to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and budget deficits, alongside global trade restructuring [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is critical, as market participants are divided on the likelihood of rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings Expectations - Analysts are skeptical about the earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies, with expectations for only a 2% growth in profits, the weakest in two years, primarily due to tariff uncertainties [8]. - Despite the low expectations, some analysts believe that growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, will still deliver strong results [8]. - There is a belief that the market's pessimism regarding the earnings season may be overstated, with potential positive surprises from improving corporate guidance and a weaker dollar [8].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed his disapproval of the term "TACO trading," stating that he believes Trump's retreat after Liberation Day was the correct choice [1] Group 1 - Jamie Dimon emphasizes the importance of terminology in trading practices, indicating a preference for clarity over colloquial terms [1] - The statement reflects a broader sentiment within the financial industry regarding the implications of political decisions on market strategies [1]

Group 1 - The VIX index has dropped to 16, significantly below the long-term average of around 20, indicating lower short-term volatility expectations for the S&P 500 [1] - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, leading a surge in technology stocks [1] Group 2 - Despite President Trump's recent threats of new tariffs, market reactions have been muted, with investors less concerned about his statements compared to earlier in the year [3] - The "TACO trade" has emerged, reflecting investor sentiment that Trump is likely to back down from aggressive tariff actions that could harm U.S. growth [3][4] - The foreign exchange market remains calm, with volatility indices returning to early-year levels, suggesting that the market does not expect a repeat of the turmoil seen in April [4] Group 3 - Some investors express concerns that the current stock market exuberance may embolden Trump to implement more aggressive trade actions than anticipated [5] - The S&P 500 is nearing historical highs, with forward P/E ratios reaching 24, raising concerns about low safety margins in valuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Market volatility has decreased to its lowest level of the year, with the U.S. stock market reaching an all-time high despite escalating trade threats from Trump, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The VIX index, which measures short-term volatility expectations for the S&P 500, has dropped to 16, significantly below the long-term average of around 20 [1]. - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed an unprecedented $4 trillion, driving a surge in technology stocks [1]. - The U.S. Treasury market's expected volatility index is nearing its lowest level in three years [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are less concerned about Trump's trade threats compared to earlier statements, betting that he will ultimately back down on tariffs that could severely harm U.S. growth [1]. - The "TACO" trading strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflects this sentiment shift among investors [1][2]. - HSBC's multi-asset strategy head, Max Kettner, noted a significant change in investor attitudes towards tariffs after May 12 [2]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600, driven by expectations of earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance from large U.S. companies [2]. - The upcoming second-quarter earnings season is expected to deliver solid results, contributing to market optimism [2]. Group 4: Risks and Warnings - Despite the prevailing optimism, some investors caution that the stock market's buoyancy may embolden Trump to adopt a more aggressive stance on trade than currently anticipated [3]. - Concerns have been raised about the lack of caution in the market, with the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24 times, indicating potential overvaluation [3][4]. - Nordea's CIO, Kasper Elmgreen, expressed worries about the absence of concern regarding the significant tariff increases experienced recently [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

2025 年 7 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,148 | 0.97 | 41.65 | | 恒生国企 | 8,709 | 1.15 | 50.97 | | 恒生科技 | 5,326 | 2.10 | 41.49 | | 上证综指 | 3,497 | 0.72 | 17.56 | | 深证综指 | 2,102 | 1.28 | 14.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,181 | 1.15 | 15.32 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,241 | -1.31 | 17.38 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,226 | -0.86 | 30.52 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,418 | -0.89 | 36.02 | | 德国 DAX | 24,207 | 1.76 | 44.50 | | ...